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Results for “Measurement uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Dataset for "Development of heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficient parameterizations from ambient measurements"

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of particles that can have an outsized impact relative to their prevalence. To simulate INP variability, models require parameterizations for the most important sources of INPs. Most parameterizations in the literature were developed from laboratory experiments that used proxies for ambient particles. Whether these laboratory models effectively represent ambient aerosol is still not well understood and parameterizations developed from field measurements may be more atmospherically relevant. Expanding on previous work in which we used an ice chamber and an single particle mass spectrometer (SPMS) to characterize INP composition, we use the combined measurements to calculate heterogeneous ice nucleation rate coefficients for ambient particles. We find good agreement between our results for dust and sea spray aerosol with previous results. We also determine the relative contribution of each measurement to the total measurement uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach and find that the biggest source of uncertainty is the sampling efficiency of the SPMS.

Cornwell, Gavin C↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Drivers of Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion: Review and Recommendations for Future Research

Leading edge erosion (LEE) of wind turbine blades causes decreased aerodynamic performance leading to lower power production and revenue and increased operations and maintenance costs. LEE is caused primarily by materials stresses when hydrometeors (rain and hail) impact on rotating blades. The kinetic energy transferred by these impacts is a function of the precipitation intensity, droplet size distributions (DSD), hydrometeor phase and the wind turbine rotational speed which in turn depends on the wind speed at hub-height. Hence, there is a need to better understand the hydrometeor properties and the joint probability distributions of precipitation and wind speeds at prospective and operating wind farms in order to quantify the potential for LEE and the financial efficacy of LEE mitigation measures. However, there are relatively few observational datasets of hydrometeor DSD available for such locations. Here, we analyze six observational datasets from spatially dispersed locations and compare them with existing literature and assumed DSD used in laboratory experiments of material fatigue. We show that the so-called Best DSD being recommended for use in whirling arm experiments does not represent the observational data. Neither does the Marshall Palmer approximation. We also use these data to derive and compare joint probability distributions of drivers of LEE; precipitation intensity (and phase) and wind speed. We further review and summarize observational metrologies for hydrometeor DSD, provide information regarding measurement uncertainty in the parameters of critical importance to kinetic energy transfer and closure of data sets from different instruments. A series of recommendations are made about research needed to evolve towards the required fidelity for a priori estimates of LEE potential.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic Tomography of the Atmosphere: A Large-Eddy Simulation Sensitivity Study

Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short GRB Host Galaxies. I. Photometric and Spectroscopic Catalogs, Host Associations, and Galactocentric Offsets

We present a comprehensive optical and near-infrared census of the fields of 90 short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) discovered in 2005–2021, constituting all short GRBs for which host galaxy associations are feasible (≈60% of the total Swift short GRB population). We contribute 274 new multi-band imaging observations across 58 distinct GRBs and 26 spectra of their host galaxies. Supplemented by literature and archival survey data, the catalog contains 542 photometric and 42 spectroscopic data sets. The photometric catalog reaches 3σ depths of ≳24–27 mag and ≳23–26 mag for the optical and near-infrared bands, respectively. We identify host galaxies for 84 bursts, in which the most robust associations make up 56% (50/90) of events, while only a small fraction, 6.7%, have inconclusive host associations. Based on new spectroscopy, we determine 18 host spectroscopic redshifts with a range of z ≈ 0.15–1.5 and find that ≈23%–41% of Swift short GRBs originate from z > 1. We also present the galactocentric offset catalog for 84 short GRBs. Taking into account the large range of individual measurement uncertainties, we find a median of projected offset of ≈7.7 kpc, for which the bursts with the most robust associations have a smaller median of ≈4.8 kpc. Our catalog captures more high-redshift and low-luminosity hosts, and more highly offset bursts than previously found, thereby diversifying the population of known short GRB hosts and properties. In terms of locations and host luminosities, the populations of short GRBs with and without detectable extended emission are statistically indistinguishable. This suggests that they arise from the same progenitors, or from multiple progenitors, which form and evolve in similar environments. All of the data products are available on the Broadband Repository for Investigating Gamma-Ray Burst Host Traits website.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Polarized Radiative Transfer Codes Used by the EHT Collaboration

Interpretation of resolved polarized images of black holes by the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) requires predictions of the polarized emission observable by an Earth-based instrument for a particular model of the black hole accretion system. Such predictions are generated by general relativistic radiative transfer (GRRT) codes, which integrate the equations of polarized radiative transfer in curved spacetime. A selection of ray-tracing GRRT codes used within the EHT Collaboration is evaluated for accuracy and consistency in producing a selection of test images, demonstrating that the various methods and implementations of radiative transfer calculations are highly consistent. When imaging an analytic accretion model, we find that all codes produce images similar within a pixel-wise normalized mean squared error (NMSE) of 0.012 in the worst case. When imaging a snapshot from a cell-based magnetohydrodynamic simulation, we find all test images to be similar within NMSEs of 0.02, 0.04, 0.04, and 0.12 in Stokes I , Q , U , and V , respectively. We additionally find the values of several image metrics relevant to published EHT results to be in agreement to much better precision than measurement uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI Emission-line Galaxies: Clustering Dependence on Stellar Mass and [O II] Luminosity

We measure the projected two-point correlation functions of emission-line galaxies (ELGs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument One-Percent Survey and model their dependence on stellar mass and [O II] luminosity. We select ∼180,000 ELGs with redshifts of 0.8 < z < 1.6, and define 27 samples according to cuts in redshift and both galaxy properties. Following a framework that describes the conditional [O II] luminosity–stellar mass distribution as a function of halo mass, we simultaneously model the clustering measurements of all samples at fixed redshift. Based on the modeling result, most ELGs in our samples are classified as central galaxies, residing in halos of a narrow mass range with a typical median of ∼10 12.2−12.4 h −1 M ⊙ . We observe a weak dependence of clustering amplitude on stellar mass, which is reflected in the model constraints and is likely a consequence of the 0.5 dex measurement uncertainty in the stellar mass estimates. The model shows a trend between galaxy bias and [O II] luminosity at high redshift (1.2 < z < 1.6) that is otherwise absent at lower redshifts.

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol impacts on isolated deep convection: findings from TRACER

This study focuses on quantifying the conditional relationship between aerosol and convective precipitation properties of isolated deep convective clouds (DCCs) in the Houston–Galveston region, after adjusting for confounding effects. We leverage comprehensive ground-based observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) to estimate aerosol effects on convective echo top height (ETH), intensity, and area separately. Our results show that greater aerosol number concentrations generally have a limited impact on these convective properties, showing relationships consistent with the possibility of both invigoration and suppression effects. Under certain conditions, where ultrafine particles are abundant, aerosols exhibit a positive effect on ETH, increasing it by about 1 km. However, it is inevitable to consider measurement uncertainties and the limitations of temporal and spatial resolution in the data, as these factors can further contribute to uncertainties in our estimates. In DCCs associated with sea breezes, the estimated aerosol effects on DCCs are found to be more pronounced. However, this heightened effect could be attributed to the exclusion of key confounders such as boundary layer updrafts in the analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Laboratory and field assessment of mid-infrared absorption (MIRA) instrument performance for methane and ethane dry mole fractions

Concurrent measurements of methane (CH 4 ) and ethane (C 2 H 6 ) can be used to identify and separate methane sources, as ethane is present in thermogenic sources (e.g., oil and natural gas) but not in biogenic sources (e.g., agriculture). In this study, we evaluated the performance of multiple Aeris MIRA Ultra instruments (Versions 1 and 2) through controlled laboratory tests and tower-based deployments under field conditions. The systems were modified with an external pump, flow control, a Nafion dryer, and a custom-built auxiliary box to automate the system and transmit near real-time data. We determined the best calibration approach for our application, given practical limitations, to be a full calibration cycle (with ambient and high calibration cylinders) about once per day and an ambient calibration cylinder sampled hourly. Measurement uncertainty was assessed, including the uncertainty due to instrument noise as a function of calibration frequency, uncertainty in the water vapor correction, and cylinder assignment uncertainty. Instrument noise was the dominant source of uncertainty for C 2 H 6 , while the water vapor correction dominated the CH 4 uncertainty. For Version 2 systems with hourly calibrations and a Nafion dryer with counterflow, the mean total uncertainty, including both systematic errors and noise, of hourly averages was 0.8–3.0 ppb CH 4 and 0.35–0.37 ppb C 2 H 6 . Laboratory intercomparisons showed network compatibility within 1.2 ppb CH 4 and 0.23 ppb C 2 H6, and a collocated deployment with a NOAA Picarro system agreed within 1.8 ppb CH 4 . Instrument noise varied substantially amongst the instruments, with errors reaching up to 11 ppb CH 4 and 2 ppb C 2 H 6 for hourly means, with similar variability indicated in a 50 h cylinder test. With appropriate engineering and calibration, the Aeris MIRA Ultra has the potential to distinguish regional methane emission sources in many field settings.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Safeguards Modeling for Advanced Nuclear Facility Design.

Future nuclear fuel cycle facilities will see a significant benefit from considering materials accountancy requirements early in the design process. The Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) working group is demonstrating Safeguards and Security by Design (SSBD) for a notional electrochemical reprocessing facility as part of a 2020 Milestone. The idea behind SSBD is to consider regulatory requirements early in the design process to provide more optimized systems and avoid costly retrofits later in the design process. Safeguards modeling, using single analyst tools, allows the designer to efficiently consider materials accountancy approaches that meet regulatory requirements. However, safeguards modeling also allows the facility designer to go beyond current regulations and work toward accountancy designs with rapid response and lower thresholds for detection of anomalies. This type of modeling enables new safeguards approaches and may inform future regulatory changes. The Separation and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) has been used for materials accountancy system design and analysis. This paper steps through the process of designing a Material Control and Accountancy (MC&A) system, presents the baseline system design for an electrochemical reprocessing facility, and provides performance metrics from the modeling analysis. The most critical measurements in the electrochemical facility are the spent fuel input, electrorefiner salt, and U/TRU product output measurements. Finally, material loss scenario analysis found that measurement uncertainties (relative standard deviations) for Pu would need to be at 1% (random and systematic error components) or better in order to meet domestic detection goals or as high as 3% in order to meet international detection goals, based on a 100 metric ton per year plant size.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

AN OVERVIEW OF THE DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE TESTING OF A 275 BAR INTEGRALLY GEARED SUPERCRITICAL CO2 COMPRESSOR FOR POWER GENERATION

An integrally geared compressor-expander (compander) for supercritical CO2 (sCO2) was developed to convert thermal energy to electricity. With operating pressures of 275 bar, this turbomachine represents the state of the art in integrally geared machine architecture, hitting compressor inlet densities of 600 kg/m3 and discharge pressures of 275 bar. The product development was funded by the Department of Energy’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office under EE0007114 to advance the state of the art in concentrated solar power applications; however, the technology itself is agnostic to heat source, and is predicted to achieve a thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency of 50% for any indirect heat source capable of providing turbine inlet temperatures of 700°C or greater. While the program encompassed the design and testing for the compressor and turbine elements, this paper will focus on the compressor design and operation. The paper will begin with an introduction to the cycle design and analysis of an indirectly heated integrally geared sCO2 compander, a discussion of the mechanical and aerodynamic design of the compressor that is a two stage radial compressor operating subcritically at 27,512 rpm, and will then proceed to describe the test facility and measured data to characterize the performance and robustness of the machine. The paper will conclude with a discussion on lessons learned throughout the course of commissioning and testing. Practical aspects of testing a compressor operating near the dome including complications relating to obtaining an accurate compressor flow map, efficiency calculations, flow unsteadiness, and associated measurement uncertainties will be discussed.

wilkes, jason↗
DOE OSTI2023

Online Model-Free Chance-Constrained Distribution System Voltage Control Using DERs: Preprint

This paper proposes an online data-driven distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) optimization method using chance-constrained formulation to address distribution system voltage regulation. This is achieved via the local sensitivity factor (LSF)-enabled reformulation of the DER control into a linear programming (LP) problem, which is easy and computationally efficient to solve. The LSF is estimated using online measurements and does not need the assumption of node load information. The latter is usually required for existing optimization-based methods but is difficult to obtain in practice. To mitigate measurement uncertainties, a scenario-based chance-constrained formulation is constructed. Compared with other control methods, the results carried out in a realistic distribution system show that the proposed method can effectively eliminate voltage violation issues.

chance-constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of Rayleigh Scattering in Liquid Argon at Vacuum Ultraviolet Wavelengths

Liquid argon based experiments are limited in scintillation light analysis capabilities due to inconsistent measured values of fundamental constants essential for reconstructing scintillation events. This experiment measures the Rayleigh scattering length of vacuum ultraviolet light propagating in liquid argon to support liquid argon experiments by expanding the scope of scintillation signal analysis. Preliminary results are presented for the Rayleigh scattering length in arange of vacuum ultraviolet wavelengths, including the liquid argon scintillation peak wavelength. Currently, further data collection and analysis is required to reduce measurement uncertainty as well as quantify and correct for other effects such as the photon detector temperature dependence. Results will contribute to the development of new photon detector system analysis methods for liquid argon experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validating Irradiance Models for High-Latitude Vertical Bifacial Photovoltaic Systems

Bifacial photovoltaic systems oriented vertically facing east-west are an emerging design, targeting production in morning and afternoon hours and providing competitive annual energy yield to traditional south-tilted modules for high latitude locations. The accuracy of existing bifacial PV models when modules are oriented vertically has yet to be examined in detail. Here, we compare four bifacial PV irradiance models in ~150 locations between 15-80 degrees N on the utility-scale, finding higher inter-model deviations for vertical PV systems than south-tilted across all latitudes less than 75 degrees N. We validate model-predicted irradiance with test-site data collected in Golden, Colorado and Fairbanks, Alaska for E-W vertical and south-tilted arrays. View factor models agree with E-W vertical test-site data in Golden with RMSE=15%. Modelling error increases for the Alaskan test-site to RMSE values between 21-30%, driven in part by high albedo measurement uncertainty during snowy months.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2026

Component-Level Inverse Design of Transmon Qubits Using Neural Networks

Designing a superconducting qubit to realize specific Hamiltonian parameters typically requires iterating through a time and compute-intensive forward loop in which the designer chooses a layout geometry, simulates it, extracts circuit parameters such as capacitances, and refines the geometry. We study the inverse version of this task using a neural-network workflow that maps target Hamiltonian parameters directly to component-level layout parameters, which we subsequently demonstrate on a planar transmon layout. During training, we pair the inverse model with a frozen forward surrogate model and evaluate the loss in Hamiltonian space rather than in layout-parameter space. In validation against a conventional EM solver, 97% of generated designs produce usable geometries, and the inverse-plus-surrogate pipeline reaches mean percent errors of 0.73% for qubit frequency and 1.58% for anharmonicity, comparable to or below the fabrication and simulation-to-measurement uncertainty expected for academic-process transmon devices of this type. A single pipeline query takes ~60 ms on CPU, versus ~2 min for a conventional EM capacitance extraction on the same hardware, a speedup of approximately 2,000x. Batching minimizes the AI model inference overhead, reducing the runtime to 3.1 microseconds per sample on CPU and 2.6 microseconds per sample on GPU at a batch size of 2048, resulting in speedups of 3.9 x 10^7 and 4.6 x 10^7, respectively, relative to a single conventional CPU EM extraction. Our results indicate that component-level inverse design usefully extends and complements conventional EM simulation, including for small datasets on the order of 1,000 samples.

Seidel, Olivia [Fermilab; Texas U., Arlington]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic uncertainties in the measurement of the neutron lifetime using the Lunar Prospector neutron spectrometer

The lifetime of free neutrons measured in the laboratory has a longstanding disparity of ≈9 s. A space-based technique has recently been proposed to independently measure the neutron lifetime using interactions between the galactic cosmic rays and a low atmosphere planetary body. This technique has not produced competitive results yet due to constraints of nonoptimized data that contain large systematic errors. We use data from the neutron spectrometer on-board NASA's Lunar Prospector, and study two large systematics in the measurement of neutron lifetime: the lunar subsurface temperature and the lunar surface composition. We use the HeCd and HeSn neutron spectrometer data when the spacecraft was in a highly elliptical orbit during the orbit insertion period. We report the neutron lifetime using four different models that each have different choices of surface temperature and composition. The 5° [Prettyman et al ., J. Geophys. Res.: Planets 111, 2005JE002656 (2006)] and 2° [Wilson et al., Phys. Rev. C 104, 045501 (2021)] rebinned maps result in 777.6±11.7 s and 739.6±10.8 s, respectively. For the 20° map (Prettyman et al., 2006), constant equatorial and a latitude-dependent temperature model result in 738.6±10.8 s and 767.3±11.2 s, respectively. Increasing the complexities of the models accounting for the systematic effects increase the measured lifetime. However, the reported measurements are not competitive with the laboratory results due to large unaccounted systematics resulting from nonoptimized measurements and modeling assumptions. This work serves as a study of systematic uncertainties for future neutron lifetime measurements using the space-based technique. We estimate the effect on the lifetime from the choice of temperature model to be to be 28.7 ±15.5 s, and choice of compositional map (for 20° and 5° maps) to be 10.3 ±12.2 s.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Uncertainty in Solar Measurements: Key Findings From NLR's SUNI Application Across 89 Stations

The Solar Uncertainty Integrator (SUNI) study was developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR's) to provide a standardized "bulk uncertainty processing" method for solar irradiance data, which are essential for the successful deployment of solar energy systems. This poster provides an overview of key findings from NLR's SUNI application across 89 stations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Data to Reduce Uncertainties in Reactor Antineutrino Measurements

The large quantities of antineutrinos produced through the decay of fission fragments in nuclear reactors provide an opportunity to study the properties of these particles and investigate their use in reactor monitoring. The reactor antineutrino spectra are measured using specialized, large area detectors that detect antineutrinos through inverse beta decay, electron elastic scattering, or coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering; although, inverse beta decay is the only demonstrated method so far. Reactor monitoring takes advantage of the differences in the antineutrino yield and spectra resulting from uranium and plutonium fission providing an opportunity to estimate the fissile material composition in the reactor. Recent experiments reveal a deviation between the measured and calculated antineutrino flux and spectra (the reactor anomaly) indicating either the existence of yet undiscovered neutrino physics, uncertainties in the reactor source term calculation, incorrect nuclear data, or a combination of all three. To address the nuclear data that impact the antineutrino spectrum calculations and measurements, an international group of over 180 experts in antineutrino physics, reactor analysis, detector development, and nuclear data came together during the Workshop on Nuclear Data for Reactor Antineutrino Measurements (WoNDRAM) to discuss nuclear data needs and achieve concordance on a set of recommended priorities for nuclear data improvements. Three topical sessions focused on the reactor source term, the antineutrino spectrum, and the detector response, provided a forum to gain consensus amongst the participants on the most important data improvements to address two goals: 1) understand the reactor anomaly and 2) improve the ability to monitor reactors using antineutrinos. This report summarizes the outcomes of the workshop discussions and the recommendations for nuclear data efforts that reduce reactor antineutrino measurement uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing

To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗