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At least 181 records · Page 10

The MCNP6 Analytic Criticality Benchmark Suite

Analytical benchmarks provide an invaluable tool for verifying computer codes used to simulate neutron transport. Several collections of analytical benchmark problems [1-4] are used routinely in the verification of production Monte Carlo codes such as MCNP® [5,6]. Verification of a computer code is a necessary prerequisite to the more complex validation process. The verification process confirms that a code performs its intended functions correctly. The validation process involves determining the absolute accuracy of code results vs. nature. In typical validations, results are computed for a set of benchmark experiments using a particular methodology (code, cross-section data with uncertainties, and modeling) and compared to the measured results from the set of benchmark experiments. The validation process determines bias, bias uncertainty, and possibly additional margins. Verification is generally performed by the code developers, while validation is generally performed by code users for a particular application space. The VERIFICATION_KEFF suite of criticality problems [1,2] was originally a set of 75 criticality problems found in the literature for which exact analytical solutions are available. Even though the spatial and energy detail is necessarily limited in analytical benchmarks, typically to a few regions or energy groups, the exact solutions obtained can be used to verify that the basic algorithms, mathematics, and methods used in complex production codes perform correctly. The present work has focused on revisiting this benchmark suite. A thorough review of the problems resulted in discarding some of them as not suitable for MCNP benchmarking. For the remaining problems, many of them were reformulated to permit execution in either multigroup mode or in the normal continuous-energy mode for MCNP. Execution of the benchmarks in continuous-energy mode provides a significant advance to MCNP verification methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Elucidating Cycling Rate-Dependent Electrochemical Strains in Sodium Iron Phosphate Cathodes for Na-ion Batteries

Battery electrodes materials undergo significant mechanical instabilities which affects their longevity and exert rate-limitations during the cycling process. In this study, we investigate the rate-dependent mechanical response of sodium iron phosphate (NaFePO4, NFP) cathodes during Na intercalation via galvanostatic cycling at different rates by employing digital image correlation, electrochemical methods, and mathematical model. The mechanical behaviour of the electrode shows strong dependance on the applied scan rate. At slower rates, electrode shows asymmetrical strain generation between anodic and cathodic cycles, which is attributed to the formation of cathode-electrolyte interface layers. The electrode undergoes smaller strain generation when cycled at slower rates when the same amount of Na ions is removed or inserted into the electrode. A mathematical model was developed to predict strain evolution in the composite electrode as well as the concentration profile of the Na ions in the electrode particles. Rate-dependent and time dependent factors on the strain generation in the electrode are attributed to the capacity-dependent intercalation strains, rate-dependent mismatch strains, and time-dependent irreversible strains. The combination of in situ strain measurements with the analytical model provided new insight into the electrochemically induced mechanical deformations in Na-ion cathode electrodes.

Ozdogru, Bertan↗

Computing a Stability Spectrum by Use of the HHT

The Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) is part of the mathematical basis of a method of calculating a stability spectrum. This method can be regarded as an extended and improved version of a prior HHT-based method of calculating a damping spectrum. In the prior method, information on positive damping (which leads to stability) and negative damping (which leads to instability) becomes mixed into a single squared damping loss factor. Hence, there is no way to distinguish between stability and instability by examining a damping spectrum. In contrast, in the present stabilityspectrum method, information on the mathematical sign of the damping is retained, making it possible to identify reThe Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) is part of the mathematical basis of a method of calculating a stability spectrum. This method can be regarded as an extended and improved version of a prior HHT-based method of calculating a damping spectrum. In the prior method, information on positive damping (which leads to stability) and negative damping (which leads to instability) becomes mixed into a single squared damping loss factor. Hence, there is no way to distinguish between stability and instability by examining a damping spectrum. In contrast, in the present stabilityspectrum method, information on the mathematical sign of the damping is retained, making it possible to identify regions of instability in a spectrum. This method is expected to be especially useful for analyzing vibration-test data for the purpose of predicting vibrational instabilities in structures (e.g., flutter in airplane wings).

Huang, Norden E.↗

Mathematical Models and Numerical Methods for High-Fidelity Simulation of Ignition of Reactive Mixtures by Nanosecond Plasma Discharges in Realistic Configurations

We present a newly developed framework for the numerical simulation of ignition of reactive mixtures using single or repeated nanosecond discharge pulses. The framework builds upon the AMReX library, using the existing compressible solver PeleC and low-Mach solver PeleLMeX and allowing for adaptive mesh refinement, complex geometries, and execution on next-generation high-performance computing (HPC) systems. High-fidelity elementary models are adopted for weakly-ionised plasma discharges with significant energy deposition, consistent with nanosecond discharge pulses, and then implemented in the solver. The treatment of non-thermal electrons and charged species, thermodynamics of non-equilbrium species, plasma kinetics, limiting time scales, and boundary conditions for charged species are discussed and addressed for computational efficiency. The framework is demonstrated for three relevant applications: single and multi-pulse discharges in air, single pulse ignition of an ethylene/air mixture, and a three-dimensional plasma discharge in air with temperature stratification. The successful application of the framework demonstrates the feasibility of high-fidelity simulation of ignition of air/hydrocarbon mixtures in three-dimensions with multiple discharge pulses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing

Abstract We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0–5‐log 10 reduction in Salmonella ) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15,400 – 248,000) cases/year. Risk reduction (by 5 ‐ to 7‐fold) predicted from a 1‐log 10 seed treatment alone was comparable to SIW testing alone, and each additional 1‐log 10 seed treatment was predicted to provide a greater risk reduction than SIW testing. A 3‐log 10 or a 5‐log 10 seed treatment reduced the predicted cases/year to 139 (95% CI 33 – 448) or 1.4 (95% CI <1 – 4.5), respectively. Combined with SIW testing, a 3‐log 10 or 5‐log 10 seed treatment reduced the cases/year to 45 (95% CI 10–146) or <1 (95% CI <1 – 1.5), respectively. If the SIW coverage was less complete (i.e., less representative), a smaller risk reduction was predicted, e.g., a combined 3‐log 10 seed treatment and SIW testing with 20% coverage resulted in an estimated 92 (95% CI 22 – 298) cases/year. Analysis of alternative scenarios using different assumptions for key model inputs showed that the predicted relative risk reductions are robust. This risk assessment provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the public health impact of various interventions in a sprout production system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Are We Adapting to Floods? Evidence from Global Flooding Fatalities

There has been a growing interest in understanding whether and how people adapt to extreme weather events in a changing climate. This article presents one of the first empirical analyses of adaptation to flooding on a global scale. Using a sample of 97 countries between 1985 and 2010, we investigate the extent and pattern of flood adaptation by estimating the effects of a country's climatological risk, recent flood experiences, and socioeconomic characteristics on its flood-related fatalities. Our results provide mixed evidence on adaptation: countries facing greater long-term climatological flooding risks do not necessarily adapt better and suffer fewer fatalities; however, after controlling for the cross-country heterogeneity, we find that more recent flooding shocks have a significant and negative effect on fatalities from subsequent floods. These findings may suggest the short-term learning dynamics of adaptation and potential inefficacy of earlier flood control measures, particularly those that promote increased exposure in floodplains. Our findings provide important implications for climate adaptation policy making and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Free Chlorine during Washing of Fresh-Cut Leafy Greens on Escherichia coli O157:H7 Cross-Contamination and Risk of Illness

Addition of chlorine-based antimicrobial substances to fresh-cut leafy green wash water is done to minimize microbial cross-contamination during processing. We developed the FDA Leafy Green Risk Assessment Model (FDA-LGRAM) to quantify the impact of free chlorine concentration in wash water during fresh-cut lettuce processing on the extent of water-mediated cross-contamination between shredded lettuce and the associated risk of illness due to exposure to Escherichia coli O157:H7. At different contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads, the model compared the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness per serving between: (1) a scenario where fresh-cut lettuce was packaged without washing; and (2) scenarios involving washing fresh-cut lettuce with different levels of free chlorine (0 ppm, 5 ppm, 10 ppm, 15 ppm, and 20 ppm) prior to packaging. Our results indicate that the free chlorine level in wash water has a substantial impact on the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness associated with E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce. Results showed that the required level of free chlorine that can minimize water-mediated cross-contamination and reduce the corresponding risk of illness depended on contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads. Our model also indicated that the pathogen inactivation rate in wash water via free chlorine was a key model parameter that had a significant impact on the extent of cross-contamination during washing and the predicted associated risk of illness.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ecological information and approaches needed for risk communication dialogs for acute or chronic environmental crises

Scientists, social scientists, risk communicators, and many others are often thrust into a crisis situation where they need to interact with a range of stakeholders, including governmental personnel (tribal, U.S. federal, state, local), local residents, and other publics, as well as other scientists and other risk communicators in situations where information is incomplete and evolving. This paper provides: (1) an overall framework for thinking about communication during crises, from acute to chronic, and local to widespread, (2) a template for the types of ecological information needed to address public and environmental concerns, and (3) examples to illustrate how this information will aid risk communicators. The main goal is providing an approach to the knowledge needed by communicators to address the challenges of protecting ecological resources during an environmental crisis, or for an on-going, chronic environmental issue. To understand the risk to these ecological resources, it is important to identify the type of event, whether it is acute or chronic (or some combination of these), what receptors are at risk, and what stressors are involved (natural, biological, chemical, radiological). For ecological resources, the key information a communicator needs for a crisis is whether any of the following are present: threatened or endangered species, species of special concern, species groups of concern (e.g., neotropical bird migrants, breeding frogs in vernal ponds, rare plant assemblages), unique or rare habitats, species of commercial and recreational interest, and species/habitats of especial interest for medicinal, cultural, or religious activities. Communication among stakeholders is complicated with respect to risk to ecological receptors because of differences in trust, credibility, empathy, perceptions, world view valuation of the resources, and in many cases, a history of misinformation, disinformation, or no information. Exposure of salmon spawning in the Columbia River to hexavalent chromium from the Hanford Site is used as an example of communication challenges with different stakeholders, including Native Americans with Tribal Treaty rights to the land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Information needs, approaches, and case studies in human health risk communication

This article uses ten case studies to illustrate the information needs, various communication approaches, and the communicator's role in explaining environmental health risks from a variety of hazards, to a variety of audiences, over time frames from days to years, using in person consultation, lectures, zooms, and email formats. Events often had a long history before the communication began and may have had a long tail afterward. Audiences may be public officials, companies, workers, communities, or individuals. Each individual may have their own understanding or mental model regarding the hazard, exposure, and risk. The communicator's role or intention may be to reassure an audience that has unrealistic exaggerated concerns or fears or to protect a client if the fears are realistic. Or it may be altruistic to inform a complacent audience to take the risks it faces more seriously. Although risk assessment research has advanced the techniques for communicating abstruse probabilities to audiences with low numeracy, in my experience, audiences are unimpressed by precise–sounding probability numbers, and are more interested in whether exposure is occurring or may occur and how to stop it. Often audiences have reason to be outraged and may be more concerned about punishing wrong doers than about the hazard itself, particularly when the exposure is past and cannot be undone. Thus, there is a difference between discussing the riskiness of a situation (risk communication) and what you are going to do about the situation (risk management). Risk communication is successful when the audience responds as intended, calming down or taking action. These case studies are drawn from a large number of risk communication experiences that I and my Rutgers colleagues have engaged in over the past four decades. Through the 20th century, New Jersey was the most densely industrialized State in United States. New Jersey experienced growth of the chemical and petrochemical industries and the unfortunately profligate disposal of toxic wastes. Having the most Superfund sites of any state is a dubious distinction, but New Jersey also has the most experience in evaluating and responding to these hazards.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Trust and consequences: Role of community science, perceptions, values, and environmental justice in risk communication

Risk communication is often viewed as imparting information and perhaps as a two-way dialogue. Risk communication inadequacies on the part of both “communicator” and “community members” can lead to adverse consequences and amplify environmental justice disparities. The paper suggests a transformational approach where risk communicators must learn to trust community experts and their knowledge base (and act upon it), where risk information imparted by risk communicators addresses what communities are most concerned about (as well as risk from specific chemicals or radionuclides), and where risk information and assessments address underlying issues and disparities, as well as cultural traditions (among others). Providing risk probabilities is no longer sufficient; western science may not be enough, and community and native scientific knowledge is needed. Risk communication (or information transfer) for environmental risks that are ongoing usually applies to low-income, minority communities—people living in dense inner cities, rural communities, Native American communities—or to people living near a risky facility. Communication within this context requires mutual trust, listening and respect, as well as acceptance of indigenous and community knowledge as equally valuable. Examples are given to illustrate a community perspective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling

Abstract Several graphical indicators have been recently introduced to help analysts visualize the marginal effects of inputs in complex models. The insights derived from such tools may help decision‐makers and risk analysts in designing interventions. However, we know little about the adequacy and consistency of different indicators. This work investigates popular marginal effect indicators to understand whether they yield indications consistent with the properties of the quantitative model under inspection. Specifically, we examine the notions of monotonicity, Lipschitz, and concavity consistency. Surprisingly, only PD functions satisfy all these notions of consistency. However, when selecting the indicators, in addition to consistency, analysts need to consider the risk of model extrapolation. For situations where such risk is under control, we utilize individual conditional expectations together with PD plots. Two applications, on a NASA space risk assessment model and a susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model for the COVID‐19 pandemic illustrate the insights obtained from these indicators.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗

Methods and strategies of object localization

An important property of an intelligent robot is to be able to determine the location of an object in 3-D space. A general object localization system structure is proposed, some important issues on localization discussed, and an overview given for current available object localization algorithms and systems. The algorithms reviewed are characterized by their feature extracting and matching strategies; the range finding methods; the types of locatable objects; and the mathematical formulating methods.

Shao, Lejun↗

Applications of numerical optimization methods to helicopter design problems: A survey

A survey of applications of mathematical programming methods is used to improve the design of helicopters and their components. Applications of multivariable search techniques in the finite dimensional space are considered. Five categories of helicopter design problems are considered: (1) conceptual and preliminary design, (2) rotor-system design, (3) airframe structures design, (4) control system design, and (5) flight trajectory planning. Key technical progress in numerical optimization methods relevant to rotorcraft applications are summarized.

Miura, H.↗

Applications of numerical optimization methods to helicopter design problems - A survey

A survey of applications of mathematical programming methods is used to improve the design of helicopters and their components. Applications of multivariable search techniques in the finite dimensional space are considered. Five categories of helicopter design problems are considered: (1) conceptual and preliminary design, (2) rotor-system design, (3) airframe structures design, (4) control system design, and (5) flight trajectory planning. Key technical progress in numerical optimization methods relevant to rotorcraft applications are summarized.

Miura, H.↗