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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Research on computer aided testing of pilot response to critical in-flight events

Experiments on pilot decision making are described. The development of models of pilot decision making in critical in flight events (CIFE) are emphasized. The following tests are reported on the development of: (1) a frame system representation describing how pilots use their knowledge in a fault diagnosis task; (2) assessment of script norms, distance measures, and Markov models developed from computer aided testing (CAT) data; and (3) performance ranking of subject data. It is demonstrated that interactive computer aided testing either by touch CRT's or personal computers is a useful research and training device for measuring pilot information management in diagnosing system failures in simulated flight situations. Performance is dictated by knowledge of aircraft sybsystems, initial pilot structuring of the failure symptoms and efficient testing of plausible causal hypotheses.

Giffin, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Spatial estimation from remotely sensed data via empirical Bayes models

Multichannel satellite image data, available as LANDSAT imagery, are recorded as a multivariate time series (four channels, multiple passovers) in two spatial dimensions. The application of parametric empirical Bayes theory to classification of, and estimating the probability of, each crop type at each of a large number of pixels is considered. This theory involves both the probability distribution of imagery data, conditional on crop types, and the prior spatial distribution of crop types. For the latter Markov models indexed by estimable parameters are used. A broad outline of the general theory reveals several questions for further research. Some detailed results are given for the special case of two crop types when only a line transect is analyzed. Finally, the estimation of an underlying continuous process on the lattice is discussed which would be applicable to such quantities as crop yield.

Hill, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Rainbow net analysis of VAXcluster system availability

A system modeling technique, Rainbow Nets, is used to evaluate the availability and mean-time-to-interrupt of the VAXcluster. These results are compared to the exact analytic results showing that reasonable accuracy is achieved through simulation. The complexity of the Rainbow Net does not increase as the number of processors increases, but remains constant, unlike a Markov model which expands exponentially. The constancy is achieved by using tokens with identity attributes (items) that can have additional attributes associated with them (features) which can exist in multiple states. The time to perform the simulation increases, but this is a polynomial increase rather than exponential. There is no restriction on distributions used for transition firing times, allowing real situations to be modeled more accurately by choosing the distribution which best fits the system performance and eliminating the need for simplifying assumptions.

Johnson, Allen M., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Generalised Porosity Formalism for Isotropic and Anisotropic Effective Opacity and its Effects on X-ray Line Attenuation in Clumped O Star Winds

We present a generalised formalism for treating the porosity-associated reduction in continuum opacity that occurs when individual clumps in a stochastic medium become optically thick. As in previous work, we concentrate on developing bridging laws between the limits of optically thin and thick clumps. We consider geometries resulting in either isotropic or anisotropic effective opacity, and, in addition to an idealised model in which all clumps have the same local overdensity and scale, we also treat an ensemble of clumps with optical depths set by Markovian statistics. This formalism is then applied to the specific case of bound-free absorption of X- rays in hot star winds, a process not directly affected by clumping in the optically thin limit. We find that the Markov model gives surprisingly similar results to those found previously for the single clump model, suggesting that porous opacity is not very sensitive to details of the assumed clump distribution function. Further, an anisotropic effective opacity favours escape of X-rays emitted in the tangential direction (the venetian blind effect), resulting in a bump of higher flux close to line centre as compared to profiles computed from isotropic porosity models. We demonstrate how this characteristic line shape may be used to diagnose the clump geometry, and we confirm previous results that for optically thick clumping to significantly influence X-ray line profiles, very large porosity lengths, defined as the mean free path between clumps, are required. Moreover, we present the first X-ray line profiles computed directly from line-driven instability simulations using a 3-D patch method, and find that porosity effects from such models also are very small. This further supports the view that porosity has, at most, a marginal effect on X-ray line diagnostics in O stars, and therefore that these diagnostics do indeed provide a good clumping insensitive method for deriving O star mass-loss rates.

Sundqvist, Jon O.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Generalised Porosity Formalism for Isotropic and Anisotropic Effective Opacity and Its Effects on X-ray Line Attenuation in Clumped O Star Winds

We present a generalised formalism for treating the porosity-associated reduction in continuum opacity that occurs when individual clumps in a stochastic medium become optically thick. As in previous work, we concentrate on developing bridging laws between the limits of optically thin and thick clumps. We consider geometries resulting in either isotropic or anisotropic effective opacity, and, in addition to an idealised model in which all clumps have the same local overdensity and scale, we also treat an ensemble of clumps with optical depths set by Markovian statistics. This formalism is then applied to the specific case of bound-free absorption of X- rays in hot star winds, a process not directly affected by clumping in the optically thin limit. We find that the Markov model gives surprisingly similar results to those found previously for the single clump model, suggesting that porous opacity is not very sensitive to details of the assumed clump distribution function. Further, an anisotropic effective opacity favours escape of X-rays emitted in the tangential direction (the venetian blind effect), resulting in a bump of higher flux close to line centre as compared to profiles computed from isotropic porosity models. We demonstrate how this characteristic line shape may be used to diagnose the clump geometry, and we confirm previous results that for optically thick clumping to significantly influence X-ray line profiles, very large porosity lengths, defined as the mean free path between clumps, are required. Moreover, we present the first X-ray line profiles computed directly from line-driven instability simulations using a 3-D patch method, and find that porosity effects from such models also are very small. This further supports the view that porosity has, at most, a marginal effect on X-ray line diagnostics in O stars, and therefore that these diagnostics do indeed provide a good clumping insensitive method for deriving O star mass-loss rates.

generalised↗
NASA NTRS1999

Angular-Rate Estimation Using Delayed Quaternion Measurements

This paper presents algorithms for estimating the angular-rate vector of satellites using quaternion measurements. Two approaches are compared one that uses differentiated quaternion measurements to yield coarse rate measurements, which are then fed into two different estimators. In the other approach the raw quaternion measurements themselves are fed directly into the two estimators. The two estimators rely on the ability to decompose the non-linear part of the rotas rotational dynamics equation of a body into a product of an angular-rate dependent matrix and the angular-rate vector itself. This non unique decomposition, enables the treatment of the nonlinear spacecraft (SC) dynamics model as a linear one and, thus, the application of a PseudoLinear Kalman Filter (PSELIKA). It also enables the application of a special Kalman filter which is based on the use of the solution of the State Dependent Algebraic Riccati Equation (SDARE) in order to compute the gain matrix and thus eliminates the need to compute recursively the filter covariance matrix. The replacement of the rotational dynamics by a simple Markov model is also examined. In this paper special consideration is given to the problem of delayed quaternion measurements. Two solutions to this problem are suggested and tested. Real Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) data is used to test these algorithms, and results are presented.

Azor, R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Application of Machine Learning to Rotorcraft Health Monitoring

Machine learning is a powerful tool for data exploration and model building with large data sets. This project aimed to use machine learning techniques to explore the inherent structure of data from rotorcraft gear tests, relationships between features and damage states, and to build a system for predicting gear health for future rotorcraft transmission applications. Classical machine learning techniques are difficult, if not irresponsible to apply to time series data because many make the assumption of independence between samples. To overcome this, Hidden Markov Models were used to create a binary classifier for identifying scuffing transitions and Recurrent Neural Networks were used to leverage long distance relationships in predicting discrete damage states. When combined in a workflow, where the binary classifier acted as a filter for the fatigue monitor, the system was able to demonstrate accuracy in damage state prediction and scuffing identification. The time dependent nature of the data restricted data exploration to collecting and analyzing data from the model selection process. The limited amount of available data was unable to give useful information, and the division of training and testing sets tended to heavily influence the scores of the models across combinations of features and hyper-parameters. This work built a framework for tracking scuffing and fatigue on streaming data and demonstrates that machine learning has much to offer rotorcraft health monitoring by using Bayesian learning and deep learning methods to capture the time dependent nature of the data. Suggested future work is to implement the framework developed in this project using a larger variety of data sets to test the generalization capabilities of the models and allow for data exploration.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1993

Investigation for improving Global Positioning System (GPS) orbits using a discrete sequential estimator and stochastic models of selected physical processes

GEODYNII is a conventional batch least-squares differential corrector computer program with deterministic models of the physical environment. Conventional algorithms were used to process differenced phase and pseudorange data to determine eight-day Global Positioning system (GPS) orbits with several meter accuracy. However, random physical processes drive the errors whose magnitudes prevent improving the GPS orbit accuracy. To improve the orbit accuracy, these random processes should be modeled stochastically. The conventional batch least-squares algorithm cannot accommodate stochastic models, only a stochastic estimation algorithm is suitable, such as a sequential filter/smoother. Also, GEODYNII cannot currently model the correlation among data values. Differenced pseudorange, and especially differenced phase, are precise data types that can be used to improve the GPS orbit precision. To overcome these limitations and improve the accuracy of GPS orbits computed using GEODYNII, we proposed to develop a sequential stochastic filter/smoother processor by using GEODYNII as a type of trajectory preprocessor. Our proposed processor is now completed. It contains a correlated double difference range processing capability, first order Gauss Markov models for the solar radiation pressure scale coefficient and y-bias acceleration, and a random walk model for the tropospheric refraction correction. The development approach was to interface the standard GEODYNII output files (measurement partials and variationals) with software modules containing the stochastic estimator, the stochastic models, and a double differenced phase range processing routine. Thus, no modifications to the original GEODYNII software were required. A schematic of the development is shown. The observational data are edited in the preprocessor and the data are passed to GEODYNII as one of its standard data types. A reference orbit is determined using GEODYNII as a batch least-squares processor and the GEODYNII measurement partial (FTN90) and variational (FTN80, V-matrix) files are generated. These two files along with a control statement file and a satellite identification and mass file are passed to the filter/smoother to estimate time-varying parameter states at each epoch, improved satellite initial elements, and improved estimates of constant parameters.

Goad, Clyde C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

CLM simulated data at three FLUXNET sites and three SNOTEL sites in the Colorado River Basin

This data package includes 6 csv files that include Community Land Model (CLM) simulations for three Fluxnet sites (i.e., US-NR1, US-GLE and US-VCM) and three SNOTEL sites (i.e., ER-BT, ER-SP and ER-PK) in the Upper Colorado River Basin area. Data inputs include meteorological forcing data (obtained from Fluxnet and SNOTEL databases) and CLM-simulated evapotranspiration (ET) data from 2005 to 2016. These datasets support the development of subseasonal regime approach based on statistics driven Hidden Markov Model to assess intra- and inter-annual variability of ET, which improves our understanding of climate change's impacts on water resources and ecosystem dynamics in the Colorado River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Angular-Rate Estimation Using Star Tracker Measurements

This paper presents algorithms for estimating the angular-rate vector of satellites using quaternion measurements. Two approaches are compared, one that uses differentiated quatemion measurements to yield coarse rate measurements which are then fed into two different estimators. In the other approach the raw quatemion measurements themselves are fed directly into the two estimators. The two estimators rely on the ability to decompose the non-linear rate dependent part of the rotational dynamics equation of a rigid body into a product of an angular-rate dependent matrix and the angular-rate vector itself This decomposition, which is not unique, enables the treatment of the nonlinear spacecraft dynamics model as a linear one and, consequently, the application of a Pseudo-Linear Kalman Filter (PSELIKA). It also enables the application of a special Kalman filter which is based on the use of the solution of the State Dependent Algebraic Riccati Equation (SDARE) in order to compute the Kalman gain matrix and thus eliminates the need to propagate and update the filter covariance matrix. The replacement of the elaborate rotational dynamics by a simple first order Markov model is also examined. In this paper a special consideration is given to the problem of delayed quatemion measurements. Two solutions to this problem are suggested and tested. Real Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) data is used to test these algorithms, and results of these tests are presented.

Azor, R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Angular-Rate Estimation using Star Tracker Measurements

This paper presents algorithms for estimating the angular-rate vector of satellites using quaternion measurements. Two approaches are compared, one that uses differentiated quaternion measurements to yield coarse rate measurements which are then fed into two different estimators. In the other approach the raw quaternion measurements themselves are fed directly into the two estimators. The two estimators rely on the ability to decompose the non-linear rate dependent part of the rotational dynamics equation of a rigid body into a product of an angular-rate dependent matrix and the angular-rate vector itself. This decomposition, which is not unique, enables the treatment of the nonlinear spacecraft dynamics model as a linear one and, consequently, the application of a Pseudo-Linear Kalman Filter (PSELIKA). It also enables the application of a special Kalman filter which is based on the use of the solution of the State Dependent Algebraic Riccati Equation (SDARE) in order to compute the Kalman gain matrix and thus eliminates the need to propagate and update the filter covariance matrix. The replacement of the elaborate rotational dynamics by a simple first order Markov model is also examined. In this paper a special consideration is given to the problem of delayed quaternion measurements. Two solutions to this problem are suggested and tested. Real Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) data is used to test these algorithms, and results of these tests are presented.

Azor, R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Inverter Failure Mechanism Estimation Using Unsupervised Machine Learning and Reliability Assessment

This article introduces a data-driven approach to assessing failure mechanisms and reliability degradation in outdoor photovoltaic (PV) string inverters. The manufacturer's stated PV inverter lifetime can vary due to the impact of operating site conditions. To address limitations in degradation estimation through accelerated testing, condition monitoring, or degradation modeling, we propose a machine learning (ML) oriented approach. Utilizing data from a 1.4 MW PV power plant operational since 2016, with 46 string PV inverters tied to the grid, we employ the unsupervised one-class support vector machine ML technique to analyze inverter and sensor data, capable of classifying humidity cycling and temperature fluctuations as dominant failure mechanisms. Utilizing the anomaly alert relationship and alert details specific to the inverter, the level of PV inverter output is considered as its availability or available reliability. Subsequently, a continuous Markov model is applied to six-month alert data, revealing an average stated reliability of 20% after 20 years of continuous operation. These results support recommendations for time-bound preventive measures to enhance PV inverter reliability under diverse outdoor conditions. Furthermore, the approach provides a nondestructive, top–down, and generalized method for analyzing any commercial PV inverter exposed to outdoor conditions, contingent on the availability of relevant data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chaconne: A Statistical Approach to Nonlocal Compression for Supervised Learning, Semi-Supervised Learning, and Anomaly Detection

This project developed a novel statistical understanding of compression analytics (CA), which has challenged and clarified some core assumptions about CA, and enabled the development of novel techniques that address vital challenges of national security. Specifically, this project has yielded the development of novel capabilities including 1. Principled metrics for model selection in CA, 2. Techniques for deriving/applying optimal classification rules and decision theory to supervised CA, including how to properly handle class imbalance and differing costs of misclassification, 3. Two techniques for handling nonlocal information in CA, 4. A novel technique for unsupervised CA that is agnostic with regard to the underlying compression algorithm, 5. A framework for semisupervised CA when a small number of labels are known in an otherwise large unlabeled dataset. 6. The academic alliance component of this project has focused on the development of a novel exemplar-based Bayesian technique for estimating variable length Markov models (closely related to PPM [prediction by partial matching] compression techniques). We have developed examples illustrating the application of our work to text, video, genetic sequences, and unstructured cybersecurity log files.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Pseudo Linear Attitude Determination of Spinning Spacecraft

This paper presents the overall mathematical model and results from pseudo linear recursive estimators of attitude and rate for a spinning spacecraft. The measurements considered are vector measurements obtained by sun-sensors, fixed head star trackers, horizon sensors, and three axis magnetometers. Two filters are proposed for estimating the attitude as well as the angular rate vector. One filter, called the q-Filter, yields the attitude estimate as a quaternion estimate, and the other filter, called the D-Filter, yields the estimated direction cosine matrix. Because the spacecraft is gyro-less, Euler's equation of angular motion of rigid bodies is used to enable the estimation of the angular velocity. A simpler Markov model is suggested as a replacement for Euler's equation in the case where the vector measurements are obtained at high rates relative to the spacecraft angular rate.

Harman, Richard R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Pseudo-Linear Attitude Determination of Spinning Spacecraft

This paper presents the overall mathematical model and results from pseudo linear recursive estimators of attitude and rate for a spinning spacecraft. The measurements considered are vector measurements obtained by sun-sensors, fixed head star trackers, horizon sensors, and three axis magnetometers. Two filters are proposed for estimating the attitude as well as the angular rate vector. One filter, called the q-Filter, yields the attitude estimate as a quaternion estimate, and the other filter, called the D-Filter, yields the estimated direction cosine matrix. Because the spacecraft is gyro-less, Euler s equation of angular motion of rigid bodies is used to enable the estimation of the angular velocity. A simpler Markov model is suggested as a replacement for Euler's equation in the case where the vector measurements are obtained at high rates relative to the spacecraft angular rate. The performance of the two filters is examined using simulated data.

Bar-Itzhack, Itzhack Y.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗