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At least 181 records · Page 10

Which Combinations of Environmental Conditions and Microphysical Parameter Values Produce a Given Orographic Precipitation Distribution?

This study applies an idealized modeling framework, alongside a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to explore which combinations of upstream environmental conditions and cloud microphysical parameter values can produce a particular precipitation distribution over an idealized two-dimensional, bell-shaped mountain. Simulations focus on orographic precipitation produced when an atmospheric river interacts with topography. MCMC-based analysis reveals that different combinations of parameter values produce a similar precipitation distribution, with the most influential parameters being relative humidity (RH), horizontal wind speed (U), surface potential temperature (θ sfc ), and the snow fall speed coefficient (A s ). RH, U, and A s exhibit interdependence: changes in one or more of these factors can be mitigated by compensating changes in the other(s) to produce similar orographic precipitation rates. The results also indicate that the parameter sensitivities and relationships can vary for spatial subregions and given different environmental conditions. In particular, high θ sfc values are more likely to produce the target precipitation rate and spatial distribution, and thus the ensemble of simulations shows a preference for liquid precipitation at the surface. The results presented here highlight the complexity of orographic precipitation controls, and have implications for flood and water management, observational efforts, and climate change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Far-field thermal imaging below diffraction limit

Non-uniform self-heating and temperature hotspots are major concerns compromising the performance and reliability of submicron electronic and optoelectronic devices. At deep submicron scales where effects such as contact-related artifacts and diffraction limits accurate measurements of temperature hotspots, non-contact thermal characterization can be extremely valuable. In this work, we use a Bayesian optimization framework with generalized Gaussian Markov random field (GGMRF) prior model to obtain accurate full-field temperature distribution of self-heated metal interconnects from their thermoreflectance thermal images (TRI) with spatial resolution 2.5 times below Rayleigh limit for 530nm illumination. Finite element simulations along with TRI experimental data were used to characterize the point spread function of the optical imaging system. In addition, unlike iterative reconstruction algorithms that use ad hoc regularization parameters in their prior models to obtain the best quality image, we used numerical experiments and finite element modeling to estimate the regularization parameter for solving a real experimental inverse problem.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of residue management practices on barley residue decomposition

Optimizing barley (hordeum vulgare L.) production in Idaho and other parts of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) should focus on farm resource management. The effect of post-harvest residue management on barley residue decomposition has not been adequately studied. Thus, the objective of this study was to determine the effect of residue placement (surface vs. incorporated), residue size (chopped vs. ground-sieved) and soil type (sand and sandy loam) on barley residue decomposition. A 50-day(d) laboratory incubation experiment was conducted at a temperature of 25°C at the Aberdeen Research and Extension Center, Aberdeen, Idaho, USA. Following the study, a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) modeling approach was applied to investigate the first-order decay kinetics of barley residue. An accelerated initial flush of residue carbon(C)-mineralization was measured for the sieved (Day 1) compared to chopped (Day 3 to 5) residues for both surface incorporated applications. The highest evolution of carbon dioxide (CO 2 )-C of 8.3 g kg -1 dry residue was observed on Day 1 from the incorporated-sieved application for both soils. The highest and lowest amount of cumulative CO 2 -C released and percentage residue decomposed over 50-d was observed for surface-chopped (107 g kg -1 dry residue and 27%, respectively) and incorporated-sieved (69 g kg -1 dry residue and 18%, respectively) residues, respectively. There were no significant differences in C-mineralization from barley residue based on soil type or its interactions with residue placement and size (p >0.05). The largest decay constant k of 0.0083 d -1 was calculated for surface-chopped residue where the predicted half-life was 80 d, which did not differ from surface sieved or incorporated chopped. In contrast, incorporated-sieved treatments only resulted in a k of 0.0054 d -1 and would need an additional 48 d to decompose 50% of the residue. Future residue decomposition studies under field conditions are warranted to verify the residue C-mineralization and its impact on residue management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Trivializing Flow in 2D-O(3) model

The two dimensional O(3) sigma model, just as quantum chromodynamics, is an asymptotically free theory with a mass gap. Therefore, it is an interesting and simple toy model to investigate algorithms for Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations of quantum chromodynamics. In this talk, we discuss the construction of a trivializing map, a field transformation from a given theory to a trivial one, through a suitably chosen gradient flow. An analytic solution for the generating functional of this trivializing flow has been obtained by a perturbative expansion in the flow time. Utilizing this solution allows for new approaches to be considered when proposing updates for a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

Chamness, Christopher↗

Development of CTF modeling of interfacial drag, wall shear, and interfacial heat transfer for bubbly and annular-mist flow regimes

This milestone report discusses improvements to CTF closure models for modeling of bubbly and annular mist two-phase flow conditions, which are important for accurate modeling and simulation for boiling water reactor (BWR) conditions. Models that were improved include the two-phase wall shear, wall boiling, and phase mass and heat transfer. A new flow regime map was implemented to improve on the prediction of transition to annular flow, which was generally largely over-predicted by the legacy CTF flow regime map. The annular mist interfacial drag models were also reviewed and new models were proposed for implementation into the code. In addition to implementing new models, an activity was performed to calibrate these new models to experimental data using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, thus further improving their accuracy. Finally, new experiments were implemented into the CTF validation matrix which add more two-phase pressure drop and void measurements for the assessment of CTF for modeling of BWRs. The results show that the Chisholm model, which was implemented and then calibrated, results in significantly improved comparison against the Riso two-phase pressure drop data. Furthermore, improvements in the implicit heat transfer and wall boiling models resulted in good agreement with the void measurement data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

Toward shell model interactions with credible uncertainties

Background: The nuclear shell model is a powerful framework for predicting nuclear structure observables, but relies on interaction matrix elements fit to experimental data as its inputs. Extending the shell model's applicability, particularly toward dripline nuclei, requires efficient fitting methods and credible uncertainty quantification. Traditional approaches face computational challenges and may underestimate uncertainties. Purpose: We develop and test a framework combining eigenvector continuation and Markov chain Monte Carlo to efficiently fit shell model interaction matrix elements and quantify their uncertainties. Methods: Eigenvector continuation is used to emulate shell model calculations, reducing computational costs. The emulator enables Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to optimize interaction matrix elements and rigorously assess parametric uncertainties. Here, the framework is benchmarked using the USDB interaction in the 𝑠⁢𝑑 shell. Results: The emulator reproduces the USDB interaction with negligible error, validating its use in shell model fitting applications. However, we find that to obtain credible predictive intervals, the model defect of the shell model itself, rather than experimental or emulator error, must be taken into account in order to obtain credible uncertainties. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient and rigorous approach for fitting shell model interactions and quantifying uncertainties. Further, the normality assumption used in the past appears sufficient to describe the distribution of interaction matrix elements. However, it is crucial to account for model correlations to avoid underestimating uncertainties.

Nuclear forces↗

SDSS-IV MaStar: [α/Fe] for the MaNGA Stellar Library from synthetic model spectra

ABSTRACT We calculate the α-enhancement ratio [α/Fe] for the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) Stellar Library (MaStar) while also fitting for the fundamental atmospheric parameters effective temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity – Teff, log g, [Fe/H]. This approach builds upon a previous catalogue of stellar parameters, whereby only the fundamental atmospheric parameters are fit with solar-scaled models. Here, we use the same Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with the additional free parameter [α/Fe]. Using the full spectral fitting code pPXF, we are able to fit multiple lines sensitive to [α/Fe] for a more robust measurement. Quality flags based on the convergence of the sampler, errors in [α/Fe] and a cut in the χ2 of the model fit are used to clean the final catalogue, returning 17 214 spectra and values in the range of −0.25 < [α/Fe] < 0.48. Comparing our calculated [α/Fe] with literature values reveals a degeneracy in cool stars with log g ≥ ∼4; this comparison is then used to create an alternative and calibrated parameter set. We also plot the final catalogue in an [Fe/H] versus [α/Fe] diagram and recover the expected result of increasing [α/Fe] with decreasing [Fe/H] for Milky Way disc-halo stars. We apply our method to a subsample of spectra of uniform resolution and higher signal to noise that finds that our results are independent of this higher signal to noise. In the context of stellar population models, we are able to cover a parameter space for the creation of intermediate to old age models at solar-scaled [α/Fe], high [Fe/H] and enhanced [α/Fe], low [Fe/H].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian uncertainty quantification of tristructural isotropic particle fuel silver release: Decomposing model inadequacy plus experimental noise and parametric uncertainties

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is one of the most promising fuel concepts enabling high temperature and high burnup reactor operation. One dominant source of radioactivity released from the TRISO particles is silver (Ag), which is subject to a high release fraction and long decay life compared to other fission products. Previous modeling efforts using the fuel performance code BISON indicated nonnegligible uncertainties in modeling the diffusion process of fission products in TRISO compared to the Advanced Gas Reactor experiments. The overall uncertainties observed when modeling the fission product diffusion can result from uncertainties in model parameters, noisy experimental measurements, and deficiencies in the developed models. The three types of underlying uncertainties have not yet been properly quantified in open literature. Here, this paper presents the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) using massively parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers. The uncertainties due to model parameters, model inadequacy, and experimental measurement noise are quantified, with the σ term used to represent the sum of the model inadequacy and measurement noise uncertainties. It is worth noting that this is the first time the σ term is inferred for nuclear fuel experiments, as compared to using prescribed values for uncertainty quantification in previous work. The parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers efficiently infer the model parameters and the σ term, giving insight into physical parameters like diffusion coefficients and the combined model discrepancy and measurement noise. A subsequent forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is also performed based on the calibration results to generate more accurate predictions of the Ag release. The model inadequacy plus experimental noise is the most dominant source of uncertainty compared to the parametric uncertainty. All the UQ analyses presented in this work are based on the second series of the irradiation experiments in the Advanced Gas Reactor program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Robotic Planning under Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Environments in Expeditionary Science

In the expeditionary sciences, spatiotemporally varying environments -- hydrothermal plumes, algal blooms, lava flows, or animal migrations -- are ubiquitous. Mobile robots are uniquely well-suited to study these dynamic, mesoscale natural environments. We formalize expeditionary science as a sequential decision-making problem, modeled using the language of partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Solving the expeditionary science POMDP under real-world constraints requires efficient probabilistic modeling and decision-making in problems with complex dynamics and observational models. Previous work in informative path planning, adaptive sampling, and experimental design have shown compelling results, largely in static environments, using data-driven models and information-based rewards. However, these methodologies do not trivially extend to expeditionary science in spatiotemporal environments: they generally do not make use of scientific knowledge such as equations of state dynamics, they focus on information gathering as opposed to scientific task execution, and they make use of decision-making approaches that scale poorly to large, continuous problems with long planning horizons and real-time operational constraints. In this work, we discuss these and other challenges related to probabilistic modeling and decision-making in expeditionary science, and present some of our preliminary work that addresses these gaps. We ground our results in a real expeditionary science deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the deep ocean for hydrothermal vent discovery and characterization. Our concluding thoughts highlight remaining work to be done, and the challenges that merit consideration by the reinforcement learning and decision-making community.

Preston, Victoria↗

Support for Reactor Operators in Case of Cyber-Security Threats (NEUP Final Report)

Increasing use of digital technology in nuclear power plants (NPPs) poses cyber-security as a crucial threat to public safety and to continuous energy production. Cyber-security risks are comprised of complex known and unknown interactions between various entities, system vulnerabilities, network protocols, human users and malicious attacks. There is little understanding or research geared towards plant operators’ response under cyber-security threats and operational procedures to cope with such threats. This is particularly critical when a cyber-security event masquerades as a safety incident or an evolving accident. Instead of leading operators to the remediation of the accident, the masked cyber event may lead them to circumvent the safety mechanisms of the plant. Given these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop a tool to characterize abnormal NPP events as “cyber” or “safety” incidents, and to further develop this tool as a real-time operator aid to assist in response to the incident. This NEUP Final Report summarizes the research efforts towards the above goals and the results in the following three aspects. First, a methodology for classifying abnormal NPP events as cyber-attacks or safety incidents was developed. This provides the basis for responding to potential cyber-attacks. In this methodology, the causal relationships between various variables (i.e., physical variables, network variables, and control variables) for a nuclear system under consideration are modeled using dynamic Bayesian networks. Based on observations of certain variables (i.e., the evidence), inference is performed to identify the state of hidden variables, which helps indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety incidents. The proposed methodology was applied to the full scope NPP simulator system at The Ohio State University as a case study. The result shows that the proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing between cyber-attacks and safety incidents. Second, a game-theoretic approach for responding to cyber-attacks on nuclear power plants was developed. This is the second major goal of the project, and the method is used to recommend optimal responses to reactor operators in the case of cyber-attacks. We consider two cases in this research. In the first case, the interaction between the defender (i.e., the reactor operator) and the attacker is modeled as a two-player, nonzero-sum, Markov game with an infinite time horizon. In the second case, we consider a semi-Markov game between the defender and the attacker within a finite time horizon. The model in the second case enables us to consider the time sensitive response of the defender. In each case, the method for deriving the Nash equilibrium is developed. The Nash Equilibrium of the game provides the valid prediction of both players’ actions because no single player can benefit from unilaterally deviating from the equilibrium policy if the other player adheres to his/hers, hence it provides the best response of the defender to cyber-attacks. The proposed method in each case is demonstrated through a simplified benchmark digital feedwater control system. Third, a prototype display is developed to integrate the above information. The prototype display depicts the communication information to the operator and incorporates the cyber-security tool developed by the team into the interface. It consists of the regular display in current control rooms, as well as a panel used to indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety events and a panel used to guide the operator’s response to detected cyber-attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Identification of hot water end-use process of electric water heaters from energy measurements

This paper presents an algorithm for the identification of parameters for a stochastic hot water end-use process that drives a homogeneous population of thermostatically controlled electric water heaters (EWH). Usually, only metered interval consumption data (kWh) is collected and the hot water end-use process is unobservable to utility and aggregators. However, the availability of EWHs for demand response (DR) is closely coupled with the hot water end-use process. In this context, the hot water end-use process is modeled as a two-state Markov chain (Use / No use), which causes the thermostatic ON-OFF switching process to behave as a Markov renewal process (MRP). A set of first passage-time problems is developed to obtain the moments of the transition probability densities of the MRP. These problems are addressed by establishing a system of coupled partial differential equations characterizing the temperature evolution of the EWH population. A key quantity in the methodology for estimating the parameters is the total time an EWH is ON within a period of interest. It is referred to as the total busy time. Total busy time in this approach is a random variable for which analytical expressions of the moments are developed as a function of the metered window length. The latter expressions become the basis of a hot water demand model identification algorithm which is validated using agent-based simulations of EWHs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SDSS-IV MaStar: Stellar parameter determination with continuum-supplemented full-spectrum fitting

We present a stellar parameter catalog built to accompany the MaStar Stellar Library, which is a comprehensive collection of empirical, medium-resolution stellar spectra. We constructed this parameter catalog by using a multicomponent χ 2 fitting approach to match MaStar spectra to models generated by interpolating the ATLAS9-based BOSZ model spectra. The total χ 2 for a given model is defined as the sum of components constructed to characterize narrow-band features of observed spectra (e.g., absorption lines) and the broadband continuum shape separately. Extinction and systematics due to flux calibration were taken into account in the fitting. The χ 2 distribution for a given region of model space was sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, the data from which were then used to extract atmospheric parameter estimates (T eff , log g, [Fe/H], and [α/Fe]), their corresponding uncertainties, and direct extinction measurements. Two methods were used to extract parameters and uncertainties: one that accepts the MCMC’s prescribed minimum-χ 2 result, and one that uses Bayesian inference to compute a likelihood-weighted mean from the χ 2 distribution sampled by the MCMC. Results were evaluated for internal consistency using repeat observations where available and by comparing them with external data sets (e.g., APOGEE-2 and Gaia DR2). Our spectral-fitting exercise reveals possible deficiencies in current theoretical model spectra, illustrating the potential power of MaStar spectra for helping to improve the models. This paper represents an update to the parameters that were originally presented with SDSS-IV DR17. The MaStar parameter catalog containing our BestFit results is available on the SDSS-IV DR17 website as part of version 2 of the MaStar stellar parameter value-added catalog.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Differentiable stochastic halo occupation distribution

ABSTRACT In this work, we demonstrate how differentiable stochastic sampling techniques developed in the context of deep reinforcement learning can be used to perform efficient parameter inference over stochastic, simulation-based, forward models. As a particular example, we focus on the problem of estimating parameters of halo occupation distribution (HOD) models that are used to connect galaxies with their dark matter haloes. Using a combination of continuous relaxation and gradient re-parametrization techniques, we can obtain well-defined gradients with respect to HOD parameters through discrete galaxy catalogue realizations. Having access to these gradients allows us to leverage efficient sampling schemes, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and greatly speed up parameter inference. We demonstrate our technique on a mock galaxy catalogue generated from the Bolshoi simulation using a standard HOD model and find near-identical posteriors as standard Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques with an increase of ∼8× in convergence efficiency. Our differentiable HOD model also has broad applications in full forward model approaches to cosmic structure and cosmological analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variations of the physical parameters of the blazar Mrk 421 based on analysis of the spectral energy distributions

Abstract We report on the variations of the physical parameters of the jet observed in the blazar Mrk 421, and discuss the origin of X-ray flares in the jet, based on analysis of several spectral energy distributions (SEDs). The SEDs are modeled using the one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model, its parameters determined using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The lack of data at TeV energies means many of the parameters cannot be uniquely determined and are correlated. These are studied in detail. We find that the optimal solution can be uniquely determined only when we apply a constraint to one of four parameters: the magnetic field (B), the Doppler factor, the size of the emitting region, and the normalization factor of the electron energy distribution. We used 31 sets of SEDs from 2009 to 2014 with optical–UV data observed with UVOT/Swift and the Kanata telescope, X-ray data with XRT/Swift, and γ-ray data with the Fermi Large Area Telescope. The result of our SED analysis suggests that, in the X-ray faint state, the emission occurs in a relatively small area (∼1016 cm) with a relatively strong magnetic field (B ∼ 10−1 G). The X-ray bright state shows a tendency opposite to that of the faint state, that is, a large emitting area (∼1018 cm), probably downstream of the jet, and a weak magnetic field (B ∼ 10−3 G). The high X-ray flux was due to an increase in the maximum energy of electrons. On the other hand, the presence of two kinds of emitting areas implies that the one-zone model is unsuitable for reproducing at least part of the observed SEDs.

Yamada, Yurika↗

Reinforcement learning for real-time process control in high-temperature superconductor manufacturing

With high efficiency and low energy loss, high-temperature superconductors (HTS) have demonstrated their profound applications in various fields, such as medical imaging, transportation, accelerators, microwave devices, and power systems. The high-field applications of HTS tapes have raised the demand for producing cost-effective tapes with long lengths in superconductor manufacturing. However, achieving the uniform and enhanced performance of a long HTS tape is challenging due to the unstable growth conditions in the manufacturing process. Although it is confirmed that the process parameters during the advanced metal organic chemical vapor deposition (A-MOCVD) process influence the uniformity of the produced HTS tapes, the high-dimensional process parameter signals and their complicated interactions make it difficult to develop an effective control policy. In this paper, we propose a local measure for the uniformity of HTS tapes to provide instant feedback for our control policy. Then, we model the manufacturing of HTS tapes as a Markov decision process (MDP) with continuous state and action spaces to assess the instant reward in real time in our feedback control model. As our MDP involves continuous and high-dimensional state and action spaces, a neural fitted Q-iteration (NFQ) algorithm is adopted to solve the MDP with artificial neural network (ANN) function approximation. The collinearity of process parameters can restrict our capability of adjusting the process parameters, which is addressed by the principal component analysis (PCA) in our method. The control policy adjusts the PCA of process parameters using the NFQ algorithm. In conclusion, based on our case studies on real A-MOCVD dataset, the obtained control policy increases the average uniformity of tapes by 5.6% and performs especially well on sample HTS tapes with a low uniformity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Off-Lattice Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulations of Mechanically Driven Polymers

Here, we develop off-lattice simulations of semiflexible polymer chains subjected to applied mechanical forces by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Our approach models the polymer as a chain of fixed length bonds, with configurations updated through adaptive nonlocal Monte Carlo moves. This proposed method enables precise calculation of a polymer’s response to a wide range of mechanical forces, which traditional on-lattice models cannot achieve. Our approach has shown excellent agreement with theoretical predictions of persistence length and end-to-end distance in quiescent states as well as stretching distances under tension. Moreover, our model eliminates the orientational bias present in on-lattice models, which significantly impacts calculations such as the scattering function, a crucial technique for revealing the polymer conformation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

An Automatic Learning Framework for Smart Residential Communities

Predictability has been foundational to matching supply and demand in the day-to-day operation of the electric power system. Demand predictability is eroding because of the increased use of renewable energy resources and more sophisticated loads, such as electric vehicles and smart appliances. In this paper, an automatic software framework is described which can be used for load forecasting in smart communities. A time-varying clustering-based Markov chain approach is used to predict the energy consumption of residential buildings in a smart community. The training data is based on 1-minute meter data of occupied homes over one month. The data points are first clustered based on the energy consumption and the time of the day. Then, the original data is converted using the Centroids of the clusters. A time-varying Markov chain is subsequently trained to model the energy consumption behavior of residents for each home using the transformed data. The trained model is shown to successfully predict load in 5-minute intervals over a 24 hours period.

Zandi, Helia↗