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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Mean State Cloud Properties in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Accurately simulating clouds remains a key challenge in global climate models, primarily because cloud formation involves sub-grid processes that are parameterized and crudely represented in models. This study examines the performance of DOE's Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) in simulating cloud properties and their spatio-temporal distribution by comparing against satellite observations. Two horizontal resolutions of SCREAM (3 and 12 km) are examined, and both depict a realistic spatial structure of mean-state cloud cover but underestimate its global mean magnitude. SCREAM 3 km reasonably reproduces the distribution of mean-state cloud properties across various cloud optical thickness and cloud-top pressure regimes, with performance comparable to CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble and marginally outperforming SCREAM 12 km. Still, SCREAM 3 km tends to underpredict low clouds and optically thin clouds, highlighting the need for continued improvement in representing unresolved processes. This study provides a basis for confidence in the representation of clouds in SCREAM, as simulating mean-state clouds is a necessary prerequisite for trusting its cloud responses to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Assessment of the Laminar Hypersonic Double-Cone Experiments in the LENS-XX Tunnel

This is an investigation on two experimental datasets of laminar hypersonic flows, over a double-cone geometry, acquired in Calspan—University at Buffalo Research Center’s Large Energy National Shock (LENS)-XX expansion tunnel. These datasets have yet to be modeled accurately. A previous paper suggested that this could partly be due to mis-specified inlet conditions. The authors of this paper solved a Bayesian inverse problem to infer the inlet conditions of the LENS-XX test section and found that in one case they lay outside the uncertainty bounds specified in the experimental dataset. However, the inference was performed using approximate surrogate models. Here in this paper, the experimental datasets are revisited and inversions for the tunnel test-section inlet conditions are performed with a Navier–Stokes simulator. The inversion is deterministic and can provide uncertainty bounds on the inlet conditions under a Gaussian assumption. It was found that deterministic inversion yields inlet conditions that do not agree with what was stated in the experiments. An a posteriori method is also presented to check the validity of the Gaussian assumption for the posterior distribution. This paper contributes to ongoing work on the assessment of datasets from challenging experiments conducted in extreme environments, where the experimental apparatus is pushed to the margins of its design and performance envelopes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Premagmatic Rifting in Shaping a Volcanic Continental Margin: An Example From the Eastern North American Margin

Both magmatic and tectonic processes contribute to the formation of volcanic continental margins. Such margins are thought to undergo extension across a narrow zone of lithospheric thinning (~100 km). New observations based on existing and reprocessed data from the Eastern North American Margin contradict this hypothesis. With ~64,000 km of 2-D seismic data tied to 40 wells combined with published refraction, deep reflection, receiver function, and onshore drilling efforts, we quantified along-strike variations in the distribution of rift structures, magmatism, crustal thickness, and early post-rift sedimentation under the shelf of Baltimore Canyon Trough (BCT), Long Island Platform, and Georges Bank Basin (GBB). Results indicate that BCT is narrow (80–120 km) with a sharp basement hinge and few rift basins. The seaward dipping reflectors (SDR) there extend ~50 km seaward of the hinge line. In contrast, the GBB is wide (~200 km), has many syn-rift structures, and the SDR there extend ~200 km seaward of the hinge line. Early post-rift depocenters at the GBB coincide with thinner crust suggesting “uniform” thinning of the entire lithosphere. Models for the formation of volcanic margins do not explain the wide structure of the GBB. We argue that crustal thinning of the BCT was closely associated with late syn-rift magmatism, whereas the broad thinning of the GBB segment predated magmatism. Correlation of these variations to crustal terranes of different compositions suggests that the inherited rheology determined the premagmatic response of the lithosphere to extension.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cambium Documentation: Version 2020

This is the documentation for the 2020 version of Cambium. Cambium is a tool that assembles structured data sets of simulated hourly cost and operational data for modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision-making. In this documentation, we define the metrics reported in Cambium databases and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Retrieval of the sea spray aerosol mode from submicron particle size distributions and supermicron scattering during LASIC

Abstract. Improved quantification of sea spray aerosol concentration and size is important for determining aerosol effects on clouds and the climate, though attempts to accurately capture the size distribution of the sea spray mode remain limited by the availability of supermicron size distributions. In this work, we introduce a new approach to retrieving lognormal mode fit parameters for a sea spray aerosol mode by combining submicron size distributions with supermicron scattering measurements using a Mie inversion. Submicron size distributions were measured by an ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS), and supermicron scattering was taken as the difference between <10 µm and <1 µm three-wavelength integrating nephelometer measurements (NEPH). This UHSAS-NEPH method was applied during background marine periods of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign on Ascension Island (November 2016–May 2017), when the contribution of sea spray aerosol was expected to represent a large fraction of the aerosol mass and total scattering. Lognormal sea spray modal parameters were retrieved from comparisons between nephelometer measurements and a lookup table of Mie theory-simulated scattering coefficients for low-error solutions that minimized the 0.4–1 µm residual in the UHSAS size distribution. We evaluated the UHSAS-NEPH method with a set of clean marine measurements in the North Atlantic that included supermicron size and chemical measurements, showing that measured supermicron size distributions are needed to constrain the sea spray number concentration but that mass concentration was reasonably characterized using supermicron scattering. For LASIC, the UHSAS-NEPH method retrieved sea spray mode properties for approximately 88 % of the background marine times when the scattering variability and total particle concentration were low (<± 5 Mm−1 and <400 cm−3, respectively), with mass mean diameter ranging from 0.6 to 1.9 µm (1.47 ± 0.17 µm), modal width ranging from 1.1 to 3.97 (2.4±0.3), and mass concentration ranging from 0.18 to 23.0 µg m−3 (8.37. ± 4.1 µg m−3). The measured nephelometer scattering at three wavelengths was found to constrain the mode width marginally at the largest particle sizes in the absence of additional size and chemical measurements for defining parameters for the Mie solutions. Comparing UHSAS-NEPH retrievals to those of a fitting algorithm applied only to the submicron UHSAS number size distribution showed that correlations between retrieved mass concentration and the available mass-based sea spray tracers (coarse scattering, wind speed, and chloride) are low when supermicron measurements are not considered. This work demonstrates the added value of supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available observationally constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discovery and analysis of low-surface-brightness galaxies in the environment of NGC 1052

The environment of NGC 1052 has recently attracted much attention because of the presence of low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) with apparently “exotic” properties, making it a region of high interest for the detection of new objects. Here, we used public deep photometric data from the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey to carry out a comprehensive search for LSBGs over a wide region of 6 × 6 degrees, equivalent to 2 × 2 Mpc at the distance of NGC 1052. We detected 42 LSBGs with r eff > 5 arcsec and μ g (0) > 24 mag arcsec -2 , of which 20 are previously undetected objects. Among all the newly detected objects, RCP 32 stands out with extreme properties: r eff = 23.0 arcsec and $\langle$μ g $\rangle$ eff = 28.6 mag arcsec -2 . This makes RCP 32 one of the lowest surface brightness galaxies ever detected through integrated photometry, located at just 10 arcmin from the extensively studied NGC 1052-DF2. We explored the presence of globular clusters (GCs) in the LSBGs. We marginally detected a GC system in RCP 32, and argue that this LSBG is of great interest for follow-up observations given its extremely low baryon density. After analyzing the distribution of galaxies with available spectroscopy, we identified a large-scale structure of approximately 1 Mpc that is well isolated in redshift space and centered on NGC 1052. The spatial correlation analysis between the LSBGs and this large-scale structure suggests their association. However, when exploring the distribution of effective radius, we find an overpopulation of large LSBGs (r eff > 15 arcsec) located close to the line of sight of NGC 1052. We argue that this is suggestive of a substructure with similar radial velocity in sight projection, but at a closer distance, to which some of these apparently larger LSBGs could be associated. However, possible effects derived from tidal interactions are worthy of further study. Our work expands the catalog of LSBGs with new interesting objects and provides a detailed environmental context for the study of LSBGs in this region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Distributed Energy Storage as a Core Grid Infrastructure via Production Cost Modeling

Energy storage plays a pivotal role in enabling power system operation with more flexibility and resilience. Unlike current practice that considers energy storages as attached ancillary devices, this paper focuses on storages as a core infrastructure by looking at their spatial distribution in the system. A sensitivity analysis based on production cost modeling is conducted to demonstrate the benefits of distributed energy storages. First, the modeling of energy storages in production cost modeling is presented. Second, potential optimal locations of distributed energy storages in a power system are discussed. Finally, multiple scenarios with various numbers and locations of additional distributed energy storages in the WECC 2030 model are created. The production cost modeling results of these scenarios show that distributed energy storages have higher utilization compared to the centralized ES units and therefore provide significantly more benefits in terms of reduction in generation cost, emission cost, and volatility of location marginal prices. A saturation effect is observed suggesting the selection of optimal locations will further improve the benefits.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cryogenic System Preliminary Design for a 0.5m-Long, Conduction-Cooled Nb3Sn Undulator Magnet Prototype

There are several NbTi superconducting undulator (SCU) magnets currently in operation at the Advanced Photon Source (APS) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The development on Nb3Sn-based superconducting undulator magnets at APS is underway due to the potential to further enhance the performance of the SCUs. Superconducting undulator magnets need to keep temperature gradients minimized in order to retain thermal and operating current margin. We have designed the thermal links for efficient heat conduction using 3D finite element analysis (FEA) simulation in COMSOL Multiphysics software, which was later used for the calculation of the temperature distribution across a 0.5 m long, conduction-cooled, Nb3Sn undulator magnet prototype that includes both conductive heat transfer and radiative heating components. We have modelled the evolution of the thermal properties of the magnet winding as well as other cold parts during cool-down from ambient temperature with the operation of a SHI RDK-415D cryocooler to examine the estimated time that is needed for the cooldown as well as the baseline temperature we could achieve. A key result was that a maximum coil delta T = 0.11 K along the designed thermal links and a temperature range of 3.42 K-3.53 K for the winding were predicted at steady state. A pair of G10 support rods for carrying the magnet as well as a pair of current leads made of metals were also designed and optimized for the testing system, targeting for an operation temperature of 4 K and a coil current of 950 A DC.

Zhang, Danlu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Landscape responses to intraplate deformation in the Kalahari constrained by sediment provenance and chronology in the Okavango Basin

The structural depression that occupies the Okavango Basin in southern Africa comprises a depo-centre within the intracratonic Kalahari Basin where sediments of the Cenozoic Kalahari Group have accumulated. The Okavango Basin has been formed due to stretching and subsidence at an area of diffused deformation, southwestwards to the main East African Rift System (EARS). Sediments from two full Kalahari Group sequences, located on opposite sides of the Gumare Fault that forms a major fault within the Okavango Basin, were studied to determine their provenance and chronology. Terrestrial Cosmogenic Nuclide (TCN) 26 Al/ 10 Be burial dating was used to constrain a chronostratigraphical framework, and Pb, Sr, and Nd isotopic ratios combined with geochemical and sedimentological analyses were applied to track the source areas of the sediments.Results indicate the following sequence of basin filling: (a) Accumulation between ca. 4–3 Ma during which the currently downthrown (southern) block received a mixture of sediments mostly from the Choma-Kalomo, Ghanzi-Chobe, and Damara terranes, and possibly from the Lufilian Belt and/or Karoo basalts during earlier stages of deposition. Simultaneously, the upthrown (northern) block received sediments from more distant Archean sources in the Zimbabwe and/or Kasai cratons, (b) Hiatus in sedimentation occurred at both sites between ca. 3–2 Ma, (c) Sediments on both sides of the Gumare Fault share a similar source (Angolan Shield) with minor distinct contributions to the downthrown block from the Kasai Craton and local sources input to the upthrown block, and (d) Regional distribution of aeolian sand since at least 1 Ma. The change in source areas is attributed to rearrangements of the drainage systems that were probably linked to vertical crustal movements on the margins of the Okavango Basin. The tectonically induced morphodynamics controlled the landscape evolution of the endorheic basin where vast lakes, wetlands and salt pans have developed through time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cambium 2023 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly emission, cost, and operational data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2023 Cambium data set is the fourth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity (Gagnon et al. 2024). Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2023's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Load Margin Constrained Moving Target Defense against False Data Injection Attacks

Cyber physical security of power systems with high penetration of renewable generation has attracted attention from researchers. One critical issue is that cyber-physical attacks, disguised as uncertain renewable generation, can target conventional power system state estimation (SE). Moving target defense (MTD) is a promising defense strategy to detect stealthy false data injection (FDI) attacks against SE. However, all existing studies myopically perturb the reactance of transmission lines equipped with distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices without adequately considering the system voltage stability. Exacerbated by the renewable generation uncertainty, existing MTD may cause voltage instability when the power grid is under stress. To address this issue, we propose a novel MTD framework that explicitly considers system voltage stability by using continuation power flow. We utilize the sensitivity matrix of power injection to line impedance, on which an optimization problem for maximizing load margin is formulated. This framework is validated on the IEEE 14-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system, in which net load redistribution attacks are launched by sophisticated attackers. Steady-state simulations and dynamic simulations on PSS/E show the effectiveness of the proposed framework in circumventing the voltage instability while maintaining the detection effectiveness of MTD. The impact of the proposed method on attack detection effectiveness is also revealed.

Zhang, Hang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reading between the (Spectral) Lines: Magellan/IMACS Spectroscopy of the Ultrafaint Dwarf Galaxies Eridanus IV and Centaurus I

Abstract We present a spectroscopic analysis of Eridanus IV (Eri IV) and Centaurus I (Cen I), two ultrafaint dwarf galaxies of the Milky Way. Using IMACS/Magellan spectroscopy, we identify 28 member stars of Eri IV and 34 member stars of Cen I. For Eri IV, we measure a systemic velocity of v sys = − 31.5 − 1.2 + 1.3 km s − 1 , and velocity dispersion σ v = 6.1 − 0.9 + 1.2 km s − 1 . Additionally, we measure the metallicities of 16 member stars of Eri IV. We find a metallicity of [ Fe / H ] = − 2.87 − 0.07 + 0.08 , and resolve a dispersion of σ [Fe/H] =0.20 ± 0.09. The mean metallicity is marginally lower than all other known ultrafaint dwarf galaxies, making it one of the most metal-poor galaxies discovered thus far. Eri IV also has a somewhat unusual right-skewed metallicity distribution. For Cen I, we find a velocity v sys = 44.9 ± 0.8 km s −1 , and velocity dispersion σ v = 4.2 − 0.5 + 0.6 km s − 1 . We measure the metallicities of 27 member stars of Cen I, and find a mean metallicity [Fe/H] = −2.57 ± 0.08, and metallicity dispersion σ [ Fe / H ] = 0.38 − 0.05 + 0.07 . We calculate the systemic proper motion, orbit, and the astrophysical J-factor for each system, the latter of which indicates that Eri IV is a good target for indirect dark matter detection. We also find no strong evidence for tidal stripping of Cen I or Eri IV. Overall, our measurements confirm that Eri IV and Cen I are dark-matter-dominated galaxies with properties largely consistent with other known ultrafaint dwarf galaxies. The low metallicity, right-skewed metallicity distribution, and high J-factor make Eri IV an especially interesting candidate for further follow-up.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Convergent evolution of tree hydraulic traits in Amazonian habitats: implications for community assemblage and vulnerability to drought

Amazonian droughts are increasing in frequency and severity. However, little is known about how this may influence species-specific vulnerability to drought across different ecosystem types. We measured 16 functional traits for 16 congeneric species from six families and eight genera restricted to floodplain, swamp, white-sand or plateau forests of Central Amazonia. We investigated whether habitat distributions can be explained by species hydraulic strategies, and if habitat specialists differ in their vulnerability to embolism that would make water transport difficult during drought periods. We found strong functional differences among species. Nonflooded species had higher wood specific gravity and lower stomatal density, whereas flooded species had wider vessels, and higher leaf and xylem hydraulic conductivity. The P 50 values (water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) of nonflooded species were significantly more negative than flooded species. However, we found no differences in hydraulic safety margin among species, suggesting that all trees may be equally likely to experience hydraulic failure during severe droughts. Water availability imposes a strong selection leading to differentiation of plant hydraulic strategies among species and may underlie patterns of adaptive radiation in many tropical tree genera. Our results have important implications for modeling species distribution and resilience under future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric Feedbacks Reverse the Sensitivity of Modeled Photosynthesis to Stomatal Function

Stomata mediate fluxes of carbon and water between terrestrial plants and the atmosphere. These fluxes are governed by stomatal function and can be modulated in many Earth system models by an empirical parameter within the calculation of stomatal conductance, the stomatal slope (𝑔 1⁢𝑀 ). Intuitively, 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 represents the marginal water cost of carbon, relating it to the emergent plant property of water use efficiency. Observations show that 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 can range widely across and within plant types in varying environments, and this distribution of 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 is not captured within Earth system models which represent each plant type with a single 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 value. Here we examine how 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 influences photosynthesis using coupled Earth system model simulations by perturbing 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 to observed 5⁢t⁢h and 95⁢t⁢h percentiles for each plant type. We find that high 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 reduces photosynthesis nearly everywhere, while low 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 has regionally dependent responses. Under fixed atmospheric conditions, low 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 increases photosynthesis in the Amazon and central North America but decreases photosynthesis in boreal Canada. These responses reverse when the atmosphere responds interactively due to spatially differing sensitivity to increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit. Choice of 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 also influences photosynthetic response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), with lower and higher 𝑔1⁢𝑀 modifying total global response to elevated 2x preindustrial CO 2 by +6.4% and −9.6%, respectively. Our work demonstrates that atmospheric feedbacks are critical for determining the photosynthetic response to 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 assumptions and some regions are particularly sensitive to choice of 𝑔 1⁢𝑀 .

Liu, Amy X. [University of Washington, Seattle, WA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling for Solar (MIDAS-Solar) (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power systems operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) - are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power system steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for power grid planning and operation. We have developed a temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation model, named Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling (MIDAS), that seamlessly simulates power system operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). For schedules with very high levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs), up to and including 100%, the stability of grid controls has been evaluated through electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations and power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulations of key transient events at key schedule points. Specifically, MIDAS provides: 1) a closed-loop simulation framework for simulating timescales from economic scheduling to dynamic stability analysis; 2) machine learning-based stability assessment; 3) EMT modeling and analysis for large-scale power systems; 4) MIDAS PHIL test bed. We worked with Hawaii Electric Companies to apply the MIDAS study framework to a Maui grid study. The entire island's transmission system was modeled in detail - from a yearly scheduling model, to a second-level frequency dynamic model, down to a sub-second-scale EMT model to address critical stability issues. The project demonstrated how MIDAS can help system planners and operators assess system reliability and stability while the power grid is marching toward a high-renewable, high-IBR future. In this Maui grid study, we found that 100% instantaneous IBR operation is achievable in EMT simulation and PHIL testing, and grid planners and operators might need new analysis/simulation tools to assess grid reliability and stability in the scheduling stage. MIDAS will bring Maui and other systems closer to 100% clean and stable energy futures. (In this study, we examined transient stability. Other topics necessary for 100% IBR operation, such as protection and resource adequacy, were not examined.)

100% Renewables↗
DOE OSTI2025

ASEAN Technical Exchange Workshop for System Operators, Regulators, and Policymakers

This presentation provides an in-depth exploration of power system planning, cross-border electricity trading, and battery energy storage systems (BESS), offering actionable insights for system operators, regulators, and policymakers. The first section delves into power system planning and analysis, focusing on capacity expansion models and resource adequacy studies, including their role in optimizing system efficiency, managing emissions, and addressing system reliability risks. Key considerations, such as integration of transmission into generation planning and the forecasting versus optimization of customer distributed energy resources (DER) technologies, are explored. The session highlights critical trade-offs in spatial granularity and model runtimes, as well as the feasibility of aligning distribution investments with capacity expansion efforts. The second section examines cross-border electricity trading, with an emphasis on resource adequacy concepts such as reliability targets, loss of load expectation (LOLE), and planning reserve margins (PRM). Case studies on reserve market design and coordination across US regions provide insights into improving reserve deliverability and managing interregional power balance and congestion. This section also addresses market-to-market congestion management, including advanced strategies for high-voltage direct current (HVDC) optimization and ancillary service delivery. Finally, the presentation covers the rapid evolution of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), highlighting their operational growth, regulatory frameworks, and use cases in grid flexibility, energy storage, and reliability. The discussion focuses on the benefits of BESS for system stability, resilience, and integration of renewable energy, offering insights into its role as a vital component in the transition toward a more sustainable and flexible grid. Key performance parameters, such as throughput, round-trip efficiency, and state of charge, are also examined.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars Using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, γ lens , to be $\mathcal{M}_γ$ lens = 2.13 ± 0.06. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone toward cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗