Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “MARKOV PROCESS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reinforcement Learning for Spacecraft Navigation & Environment Characterization in the Planar-Restricted Two-Body Problem

As science, exploration, and commercial space missions become increasingly complex, so does the need for efficient, autonomous, and integrated spacecraft navigation and operations techniques. Key operational functions, including data collection and transmission, environment characterization, systems constraints, human factors, and navigation, often are intertwined and conflicted. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) offers a framework for addressing integrated spacecraft navigation and planning in an uncertain dynamical environment. The goal of this study is to evaluate the utility of DRL for integrated spacecraft navigation and planning. This is achieved by developing a simple environmental characterization training environment in the Planar-Restricted 2-Body Problem (PR2BP), establishing benchmarks and heuristic baselines, and designing a previously unstudied Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation. This MDP formulation enables the spacecraft DRL agents to appropriately balance navigation and actuation capabilities. The resulting DRL-derived policy exceeds a random or untrained policy and meets or exceeds the level of performance of a heuristic without actuation. In the process, valuable intuition is gained about the problem with insight into how DRL methods could scale to increasingly more realistic scenarios, including net-work design and training architectures, efficient state space representations, and methods for encouraging exploration in a parametric action space, among others.

navigation↗
NASA NTRS1989

Operations and support cost modeling using Markov chains

Systems for future missions will be selected with life cycle costs (LCC) as a primary evaluation criterion. This reflects the current realization that only systems which are considered affordable will be built in the future due to the national budget constaints. Such an environment calls for innovative cost modeling techniques which address all of the phases a space system goes through during its life cycle, namely: design and development, fabrication, operations and support; and retirement. A significant portion of the LCC for reusable systems are generated during the operations and support phase (OS). Typically, OS costs can account for 60 to 80 percent of the total LCC. Clearly, OS costs are wholly determined or at least strongly influenced by decisions made during the design and development phases of the project. As a result OS costs need to be considered and estimated early in the conceptual phase. To be effective, an OS cost estimating model needs to account for actual instead of ideal processes by associating cost elements with probabilities. One approach that may be suitable for OS cost modeling is the use of the Markov Chain Process. Markov chains are an important method of probabilistic analysis for operations research analysts but they are rarely used for life cycle cost analysis. This research effort evaluates the use of Markov Chains in LCC analysis by developing OS cost model for a hypothetical reusable space transportation vehicle (HSTV) and suggests further uses of the Markov Chain process as a design-aid tool.

Unal, Resit↗
NASA NTRS2004

Application of Simulated Annealing and Related Algorithms to TWTA Design

Simulated Annealing (SA) is a stochastic optimization algorithm used to search for global minima in complex design surfaces where exhaustive searches are not computationally feasible. The algorithm is derived by simulating the annealing process, whereby a solid is heated to a liquid state and then cooled slowly to reach thermodynamic equilibrium at each temperature. The idea is that atoms in the solid continually bond and re-bond at various quantum energy levels, and with sufficient cooling time they will rearrange at the minimum energy state to form a perfect crystal. The distribution of energy levels is given by the Boltzmann distribution: as temperature drops, the probability of the presence of high-energy bonds decreases. In searching for an optimal design, local minima and discontinuities are often present in a design surface. SA presents a distinct advantage over other optimization algorithms in its ability to escape from these local minima. Just as high-energy atomic configurations are visited in the actual annealing process in order to eventually reach the minimum energy state, in SA highly non-optimal configurations are visited in order to find otherwise inaccessible global minima. The SA algorithm produces a Markov chain of points in the design space at each temperature, with a monotonically decreasing temperature. A random point is started upon, and the objective function is evaluated at that point. A stochastic perturbation is then made to the parameters of the point to arrive at a proposed new point in the design space, at which the objection function is evaluated as well. If the change in objective function values (Delta)E is negative, the proposed new point is accepted. If (Delta)E is positive, the proposed new point is accepted according to the Metropolis criterion: rho((Delta)f) = exp((-Delta)E/T), where T is the temperature for the current Markov chain. The process then repeats for the remainder of the Markov chain, after which the temperature is decremented and the process repeats. Eventually (and hopefully), a near-globally optimal solution is attained as T approaches zero. Several exciting variants of SA have recently emerged, including Discrete-State Simulated Annealing (DSSA) and Simulated Tempering (ST). The DSSA algorithm takes the thermodynamic analogy one step further by categorizing objective function evaluations into discrete states. In doing so, many of the case-specific problems associated with fine-tuning the SA algorithm can be avoided; for example, theoretical approximations for the initial and final temperature can be derived independently of the case. In this manner, DSSA provides a scheme that is more robust with respect to widely differing design surfaces. ST differs from SA in that the temperature T becomes an additional random variable in the optimization. The system is also kept in equilibrium as the temperature changes, as opposed to the system being driven out of equilibrium as temperature changes in SA. ST is designed to overcome obstacles in design surfaces where numerous local minima are separated by high barriers. These algorithms are incorporated into the optimal design of the traveling-wave tube amplifier (TWTA). The area under scrutiny is the collector, in which it would be ideal to use negative potential to decelerate the spent electron beam to zero kinetic energy just as it reaches the collector surface. In reality this is not plausible due to a number of physical limitations, including repulsion and differing levels of kinetic energy among individual electrons. Instead, the collector is designed with multiple stages depressed below ground potential. The design of this multiple-stage collector is the optimization problem of interest. One remaining problem in SA and DSSA is the difficulty in determining when equilibrium has been reached so that the current Markov chain can be terminated. It has been suggested in recent literature that simulating the thermodynamic properties opecific heat, entropy, and internal energy from the Boltzmann distribution can provide good indicators of having reached equilibrium at a certain temperature. These properties are tested for their efficacy and implemented in SA and DSSA code with respect to TWTA collector optimization.

Radke, Eric M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Metrics for Labeled Markov Systems

Partial Labeled Markov Chains are simultaneously generalizations of process algebra and of traditional Markov chains. They provide a foundation for interacting discrete probabilistic systems, the interaction being synchronization on labels as in process algebra. Existing notions of process equivalence are too sensitive to the exact probabilities of various transitions. This paper addresses contextual reasoning principles for reasoning about more robust notions of "approximate" equivalence between concurrent interacting probabilistic systems. The present results indicate that:We develop a family of metrics between partial labeled Markov chains to formalize the notion of distance between processes. We show that processes at distance zero are bisimilar. We describe a decision procedure to compute the distance between two processes. We show that reasoning about approximate equivalence can be done compositionally by showing that process combinators do not increase distance. We introduce an asymptotic metric to capture asymptotic properties of Markov chains; and show that parallel composition does not increase asymptotic distance.

Desharnais, Josee↗
NASA NTRS1978

Radiative transfer calculated from a Markov chain formalism

The theory of Markov chains is used to formulate the radiative transport problem in a general way by modeling the successive interactions of a photon as a stochastic process. Under the minimal requirement that the stochastic process is a Markov chain, the determination of the diffuse reflection or transmission from a scattering atmosphere is equivalent to the solution of a system of linear equations. This treatment is mathematically equivalent to, and thus has many of the advantages of, Monte Carlo methods, but can be considerably more rapid than Monte Carlo algorithms for numerical calculations in particular applications. We have verified the speed and accuracy of this formalism for the standard problem of finding the intensity of scattered light from a homogeneous plane-parallel atmosphere with an arbitrary phase function for scattering. Accurate results over a wide range of parameters were obtained with computation times comparable to those of a standard 'doubling' routine. The generality of this formalism thus allows fast, direct solutions to problems that were previously soluble only by Monte Carlo methods. Some comparisons are made with respect to integral equation methods.

Esposito, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Optimal regulation in systems with stochastic time sampling

An optimal control theory that accounts for stochastic variable time sampling in a distributed microprocessor based flight control system is presented. The theory is developed by using a linear process model for the airplane dynamics and the information distribution process is modeled as a variable time increment process where, at the time that information is supplied to the control effectors, the control effectors know the time of the next information update only in a stochastic sense. An optimal control problem is formulated and solved for the control law that minimizes the expected value of a quadratic cost function. The optimal cost obtained with a variable time increment Markov information update process where the control effectors know only the past information update intervals and the Markov transition mechanism is almost identical to that obtained with a known and uniform information update interval.

Montgomery, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Information distribution in distributed microprocessor based flight control systems

This paper presents an optimal control theory that accounts for variable time intervals in the information distribution to control effectors in a distributed microprocessor based flight control system. The theory is developed using a linear process model for the aircraft dynamics and the information distribution process is modeled as a variable time increment process where, at the time that information is supplied to the control effectors, the control effectors know the time of the next information update only in a stochastic sense. An optimal control problem is formulated and solved that provides the control law that minimizes the expected value of a quadratic cost function. An example is presented where the theory is applied to the control of the longitudinal motions of the F8-DFBW aircraft. Theoretical and simulation results indicate that, for the example problem, the optimal cost obtained using a variable time increment Markov information update process where the control effectors know only the past information update intervals and the Markov transition mechanism is almost identical to that obtained using a known uniform information update interval.

Montgomery, R. C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

pop-cosmos : redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

ABSTRACT Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak-lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS (Kilo-Degree Survey)-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU (graphics processing unit)-accelerated Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim \!185\,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times 10^{-3}$), scatter ($\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2 per cent) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times 10^{-2}$, $\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0 per cent outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7 per cent of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37 per cent implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak-lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out of sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

Halder, Anik [Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Ins↗
NASA NTRS1995

MMPP Traffic Generator for the Testing of the SCAR 2 Fast Packet Switch

A prototype MWP Traffic Generator (TG) has been designed for testing of the COMSAT-supplied SCAR II Fast Packet Switch. By generating packets distributed according to a Markov-Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) model. it allows the assessment of the switch performance under traffic conditions that are more realistic than could be generated using the COMSAT-supplied Traffic Generator Module. The MMPP model is widely believed to model accurately real-world superimposed voice and data communications traffic. The TG was designed to be as much as possible of a "drop-in" replacement for the COMSAT Traffic Generator Module. The latter fit on two Altera EPM7256EGC 192-pin CPLDs and produced traffic for one switch input port. No board changes are necessary because it has been partitioned to use the existing board traces. The TG, consisting of parts "TGDATPROC" and "TGRAMCTL" must merely be reprogrammed into the Altera devices of the same name. However, the 040 controller software must be modified to provide TG initialization data. This data will be given in Section II.

Chren, William A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Average reflected power from a one-dimensional slab of discrete scatterers

Reflection from a one-dimensional random medium of discrete scatterers is considered. The discrete scattering medium is modeled by a Poisson impulse process with concentration lambda. By employing the Markov property of the Poisson impulse process, an exact functional integro-differential equation of the Kolmogorov-Feller type is found for the average reflected power. Approximate solutions to this equation are obtained by regular perturbation and two variable expansion techniques in the limit of small lambda. The regular perturbation results is valid for small slab thicknesses, while the two-variable result is uniformly valid for any thickness. The two-variable result shows that as the slab size becomes infinite all of the incident power is reflected on the average.

Saatchi, Sasan S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The effect of dissipative inhomogeneous medium on the statistics of the wave intensity

One of the main theoretical points in the theory of wave propagation in random medium is the derivation of closed form equations to describe the statistics of the propagating waves. In particular, in one dimensional problems, the closed form representation of the multiple scattering effects is important since it contributes in understanding such problems like wave localization, backscattering enhancement, and intensity fluctuations. In this the propagation of plane waves in a layer of one-dimensional dissipative random medium is considered. The medium is modeled by a complex permittivity whose real part is a constant representing the absorption. The one dimensional problem is mathematically equivalent to the analysis of a transmission line with randomly perturbed distributed parameters and a single mode lossy waveguide and the results can be used to study the propagation of radio waves through atmosphere and the remote sensing of geophysical media. It is assumed the scattering medium consists of an ensemble of one-dimensional point scatterers randomly positioned in a layer of thickness L with diffuse boundaries. A Poisson impulse process with density lambda is used to model the position of scatterers in the medium. By employing the Markov properties of this process an exact closed form equation of Kolmogorov-Feller type was obtained for the probability density of the reflection coefficient. This equation was solved by combining two limiting cases: (1) when the density of scatterers is small; and (2) when the medium is weakly dissipative. A two variable perturbation method for small lambda was used to obtain solutions valid for thick layers. These solutions are then asymptotically evaluated for small dissipation. To show the effect of dissipation, the mean and fluctuations of the reflected power are obtained. The results were compared with a lossy homogeneous medium and with a lossless inhomogeneous medium and the regions where the effect of absorption is not essential were discussed.

Saatchi, Sasan S.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Birth/death process model

First-order Markov model developed on digital computer for population with specific characteristics. System is user interactive, self-documenting, and does not require user to have complete understanding of underlying model details. Contains thorough error-checking algorithms on input and default capabilities.

Solloway, C. B.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Semi-Markov adjunction to the Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME)

The rule-based Computer-Aided Markov Evaluator (CAME) program was expanded in its ability to incorporate the effect of fault-handling processes into the construction of a reliability model. The fault-handling processes are modeled as semi-Markov events and CAME constructs and appropriate semi-Markov model. To solve the model, the program outputs it in a form which can be directly solved with the Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator (SURE) program. As a means of evaluating the alterations made to the CAME program, the program is used to model the reliability of portions of the Integrated Airframe/Propulsion Control System Architecture (IAPSA 2) reference configuration. The reliability predictions are compared with a previous analysis. The results bear out the feasibility of utilizing CAME to generate appropriate semi-Markov models to model fault-handling processes.

Rosch, Gene↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photoproduction of the Σ + hyperon using linearly polarized photons with CLAS

Measurements of the polarization observables Σ, P, T, O x , O z for the reaction $\vec{γ}$ p → $K^0_S$Σ + using a linearly polarized photon beam of energy 1.1 to 2.1 GeV are reported. The measured data provide information on a channel that has not been studied extensively, but is required for a full coupled-channel analysis in the nucleon resonance region. Observables have been simultaneously extracted using likelihood sampling with a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo process. Angular distributions in bins of photon energy E γ are produced for each polarization observable. T, O x , and O z are first time measurements of these observables in this reaction. The extraction of Σ extends the energy range beyond a previous measurement. The measurement of P, the recoil polarization, is consistent with previous measurements. The measured data are shown to be significant enough to affect the estimation of the nucleon resonance parameters when fitted within a coupled-channels model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Markov chains for testing redundant software

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

White, Allan L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Investigation for improving Global Positioning System (GPS) orbits using a discrete sequential estimator and stochastic models of selected physical processes

GEODYNII is a conventional batch least-squares differential corrector computer program with deterministic models of the physical environment. Conventional algorithms were used to process differenced phase and pseudorange data to determine eight-day Global Positioning system (GPS) orbits with several meter accuracy. However, random physical processes drive the errors whose magnitudes prevent improving the GPS orbit accuracy. To improve the orbit accuracy, these random processes should be modeled stochastically. The conventional batch least-squares algorithm cannot accommodate stochastic models, only a stochastic estimation algorithm is suitable, such as a sequential filter/smoother. Also, GEODYNII cannot currently model the correlation among data values. Differenced pseudorange, and especially differenced phase, are precise data types that can be used to improve the GPS orbit precision. To overcome these limitations and improve the accuracy of GPS orbits computed using GEODYNII, we proposed to develop a sequential stochastic filter/smoother processor by using GEODYNII as a type of trajectory preprocessor. Our proposed processor is now completed. It contains a correlated double difference range processing capability, first order Gauss Markov models for the solar radiation pressure scale coefficient and y-bias acceleration, and a random walk model for the tropospheric refraction correction. The development approach was to interface the standard GEODYNII output files (measurement partials and variationals) with software modules containing the stochastic estimator, the stochastic models, and a double differenced phase range processing routine. Thus, no modifications to the original GEODYNII software were required. A schematic of the development is shown. The observational data are edited in the preprocessor and the data are passed to GEODYNII as one of its standard data types. A reference orbit is determined using GEODYNII as a batch least-squares processor and the GEODYNII measurement partial (FTN90) and variational (FTN80, V-matrix) files are generated. These two files along with a control statement file and a satellite identification and mass file are passed to the filter/smoother to estimate time-varying parameter states at each epoch, improved satellite initial elements, and improved estimates of constant parameters.

Goad, Clyde C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayes_Opt-SWMM: A Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization tool for real-time flood modeling with SWMM

Real-time flood model plays a pivotal role in averting urban flood damage, particularly when there is minimal lead time for preparatory measures. However, urban flood modeling in real-time often contends with inherent uncertainties arising from input data uncertainty and parameter ambiguities. Here this study introduces a real-time calibration (RTC) tool called Bayes_Opt-SWMM, specifically tailored for real-time urban flood modeling and uncertainty optimization. This tool leverages the Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization algorithm and interfaces seamlessly with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM). It integrates real-time model forcing data and flood monitoring collected through sensors and gauges which are strategically placed within critical locations of urban drainage systems. Our approach hinges on the Surrogate Model based Uncertainty Optimization (SMUO) concept, providing an avenue for enhancing real-time flood modeling. Bayes_Opt-SWMM runs the optimization process using a surrogate model called Gaussian Process emulator with two inference methods: (1) the Gaussian Process (GP) model and (2) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm in GP model (GP_MCMC). Furthermore, three acquisition functions, namely Expected Improvement (EI), Maximum Probability of Improvement (MPI), and Lower Confidence Bound (LCB), facilitate optimal parameter fitting within the surrogate models. The efficiency of GP-based surrogate models in learning SWMM model parameters, leads to an improved uncertainty quantification and accelerated real-time flood modeling in urban areas. Overall, Bayes_Opt-SWMM emerges as a cost-effective and valuable tool for real-time flood modeling and monitoring, with significant potential for managing intelligent storm water systems in urban environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗