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DOE OSTI2021

Alert Classification for the ALeRCE Broker System: The Light Curve Classifier

We present the first version of the Automatic Learning for the Rapid Classification of Events (ALeRCE) broker light curve classifier. ALeRCE is currently processing the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert stream, in preparation for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. The ALeRCE light curve classifier uses variability features computed from the ZTF alert stream and colors obtained from AllWISE and ZTF photometry. We apply a balanced random forest algorithm with a two-level scheme where the top level classifies each source as periodic, stochastic, or transient, and the bottom level further resolves each of these hierarchical classes among 15 total classes. This classifier corresponds to the first attempt to classify multiple classes of stochastic variables (including core- and host-dominated active galactic nuclei, blazars, young stellar objects, and cataclysmic variables) in addition to different classes of periodic and transient sources, using real data. We created a labeled set using various public catalogs (such as the Catalina Surveys and Gaia DR2 variable stars catalogs, and the Million Quasars catalog), and we classify all objects with ≥6 g-band or ≥6 r-band detections in ZTF (868,371 sources as of 2020 June 9), providing updated classifications for sources with new alerts every day. For the top level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.96 and 0.99, respectively, and for the bottom level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.57 and 0.76, respectively. Updated classifications from the light curve classifier can be found at the ALeRCE Explorer website (http://alerce.online).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Active anomaly detection for time-domain discoveries

Aims. We present the first evidence that adaptive learning techniques can boost the discovery of unusual objects within astronomical light curve data sets. Methods. Our method follows an active learning strategy where the learning algorithm chooses objects which can potentially improve the learner if additional information about them is provided. This new information is subsequently used to update the machine learning model, allowing its accuracy to evolve with each new information. For the case of anomaly detection, the algorithm aims to maximize the number of scientifically interesting anomalies presented to the expert by slightly modifying the weights of a traditional Isolation Forest (IF) at each iteration. In order to demonstrate the potential of such techniques, we apply the Active Anomaly Discovery (AAD) algorithm to 2 data sets: simulated light curves from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC) and real light curves from the Open Supernova Catalog. We compare the AAD results to those of a static IF. For both methods, we performed a detailed analysis for all objects with the ~2% highest anomaly scores. Results. We show that, in the real data scenario , AAD was able to identify ~80% more true anomalies than the IF. This result is the first evidence that AAD algorithms can play a central role in the search for new physics in the era of large scale sky surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2006

Assessment of Postflight Locomotor Performance Utilizing a Test of Functional Mobility: Strategic and Adaptive Responses

Space flight induces adaptive modification in sensorimotor function, allowing crewmembers to operate in the unique microgravity environment. This adaptive state, however, is inappropriate for a terrestrial environment. During a re-adaptation period upon their return to Earth, crewmembers experience alterations in sensorimotor function, causing various disturbances in perception, spatial orientation, posture, gait, and eye-head coordination. Following long duration space flight, sensorimotor dysfunction would prevent or extend the time required to make an emergency egress from the vehicle; compromising crew safety and mission objectives. We are investigating two types of motor learning that may interact with each other and influence a crewmember's ability to re-adapt to Earth's gravity environment. In strategic learning, crewmembers make rapid modifications in their motor control strategy emphasizing error reduction. This type of learning may be critical during the first minutes and hours after landing. In adaptive learning, long-term plastic transformations occur, involving morphological changes and synaptic modification. In recent literature these two behavioral components have been associated with separate brain structures that control the execution of motor strategies: the strategic component was linked to the posterior parietal cortex and the adaptive component was linked to the cerebellum (Pisella, et al. 2004). The goal of this paper was to demonstrate the relative contributions of the strategic and adaptive components to the re-adaptation process in locomotor control after long duration space flight missions on the International Space Station (ISS). The Functional Mobility Test (FMT) was developed to assess crewmember s ability to ambulate postflight from an operational and functional perspective. Sixteen crewmembers were tested preflight (3 sessions) and postflight (days 1, 2, 4, 7, 25) following a long duration space flight (approx 6 months) on the ISS. We have further analyzed the FMT data to characterize strategic and adaptive components during the postflight readaptation period. Crewmembers walked at a preferred pace through an obstacle course set up on a base of 10 cm thick medium density foam (Sunmate Foam, Dynamic Systems, Inc., Leicester, NC). The 6.0m X 4.0m course consisted of several pylons made of foam; a Styrofoam barrier 46.0cm high that crewmembers stepped over; and a portal constructed of two Styrofoam blocks, each 31cm high, with a horizontal bar covered by foam and suspended from the ceiling which was adjusted to the height of the crewmember s shoulder. The portal required crewmembers to bend at the waist and step over a barrier simultaneously. All obstacles were lightweight, soft and easily knocked over. Crewmembers were instructed to walk through the course as quickly and as safely as possible without touching any of the objects on the course. This task was performed three times in the clockwise direction and three times in the counterclockwise direction that was randomly chosen. The dependent measures for each trial were: time to complete the course (seconds) and the number of obstacles touched or knocked down. For each crewmember, the time to complete each FMT trial from postflight days 1, 2, 4, 7 and 25 were further analyzed. A single logarithmic curve using a least squares calculation was fit through these data to produce a single comprehensive curve (macro). This macro curve composed of data spanning 25 days, illustrates the re-adaptive learning function over the longer time scale term. Additionally, logarithmic curves were fit to the 6 data trials within each individual post flight test day to produce 5 separate daily curves. These micro curves, produced from data obtained over the course of minutes, illustrates the strategic learning function exhibited over a relative shorter time scale. The macro curve for all subjects exhibited adaptive motor learning patterns over the 25 day period. Howev, 9/16 crewmembers exhibited significant strategic motor learning patterns in their micro curves, as defined by m > 1 in the equation of the line y=m*LN(x) +b. These data indicate that postflight recovery in locomotor function involves both strategic and adaptive mechanisms. Future countermeasures will be designed to enhance both recovery processes.

Warren, L. E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optical and X-ray GRB Fundamental Planes as cosmological distance indicators

ABSTRACT Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), can be employed as standardized candles, extending the distance ladder beyond Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia, z = 2.26). We standardize GRBs using the three-dimensional (3D) Fundamental Plane relation (the Dainotti relation) among the rest-frame end time of the X-ray plateau emission, its corresponding luminosity, and the peak prompt luminosity. Combining SNe Ia and GRBs, we constrain ΩM = 0.299 ± 0.009 assuming a flat Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmology with and without correcting GRBs for selection biases and redshift evolution. Using a 3D optical Dainotti correlation, we find this sample is as efficacious in the determination of ΩM as the X-ray sample. We trimmed our GRB samples to achieve tighter planes to simulate additional GRBs. We determined how many GRBs are needed as stand-alone probes to achieve a comparable precision on ΩM to the one obtained by SNe Ia only. We reach the same error measurements derived using SNe Ia in 2011 and 2014 with 142 and 284 simulated optical GRBs, respectively, considering the error bars on the variables halved. These error limits will be reached in 2038 and in 2047, respectively. Using a doubled sample (obtained by future machine learning approaches allowing a light-curve reconstruction and the estimates of GRB redshifts when z is unknown) compared to the current sample, with error bars halved we will reach the same precision as SNe Ia in 2011 and 2014, now and in 2026, respectively. If we consider the current SNe precision, this will be reached with 390 optical GRBs by 2054.

Dainotti, M. G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey: Cosmology Results with ∼1500 New High-redshift Type Ia Supernovae Using the Full 5 yr Data Set

Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 < z < 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-quality z > 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 < z < 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find Ω M = 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration ( q 0 < 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5 σ confidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 − 0.096 + 0.074 , − 0.80 − 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flat w CDM. For flat w 0 w a CDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 − 0.043 + 0.033 , − 0.36 − 0.30 + 0.36 , − 8.8 − 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2 σ . Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (Ω M , w ) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2 σ . Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1997

Extending ROSAT Light Curves of Ecliptic Pole AGN Formation and Galaxy Evolution

In collaboration with UCLA graduate student Fred Baganoff, Professor Malkan has obtained the longest continuous light curves ever available for a large sample (# = 60) of active galactic nuclei. This was accomplished by using the ROSATAII-Sky Survey, which covered the ecliptic pole regions once every 9O-minute orbit. Using this Astrophysics Data Processing grant from NASA, we extended these light curves by combining the RASS data with pointed observations over the next several years of operation of the ROSAT PSPC. This lengthens the baselines of about half of the light curves from a few months up to a few years. The proportion of AGN showing variability increases substantially with this improvement. In fact most AGN in this representative sample are now shown to be significantly variable in the X-rays. We are also able to say something about the amplitudes of variability on timescales from days to years, with more detail than previously has been possible. We have also identified some dependence of the X-ray variability properties on a) the luminosity of the AGN; and b) The presence of a "Blazar" nucleus. By extending the ROSAT light curves, we are also able to learn more about the correlation of X-ray and optical emission on longer time-scales. It appears to be very weak, at best.

Malkan, Matthew A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A new approach to the analysis of Mira light curves

Two different but complementary methods for predicting Mira luminosities are presented. One method is derived from a Fourier analysis, it requires performing deconvolution, and its results are not certain due to the inherent instability of deconvolution problems. The other method is a learning method utilizing artificial intelligence techniques where a light curve is presented as an ordered sequence of pseudocycles, and rules are learned by linking the characteristics of several consecutive pseudocycles to one characteristic of the future cycle. It is observed that agreement between these methods is obtainable when it is possible to eliminate similar false frequencies from the preliminary power spectrum and to improve the degree of confidence in the rules.

Mennessier, M. O.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning and algebraic approaches towards complete matter spectra in 4d F-theory

Motivated by engineering vector-like (Higgs) pairs in the spectrum of 4d F-theory compactifications, we combine machine learning and algebraic geometry techniques to analyze line bundle cohomologies on families of holomorphic curves. To quantify jumps of these cohomologies, we first generate 1.8 million pairs of line bundles and curves embedded in dP 3 , for which we compute the cohomologies. A white-box machine learning approach trained on this data provides intuition for jumps due to curve splittings, which we use to construct additional vector-like Higgs-pairs in an F-Theory toy model. We also find that, in order to explain quantitatively the full dataset, further tools from algebraic geometry, in particular Brill-Noether theory, are required. Using these ingredients, we introduce a diagrammatic way to express cohomology jumps across the parameter space of each family of matter curves, which reflects a stratification of the F-theory complex structure moduli space in terms of the vector-like spectrum. Furthermore, these insights provide an algorithmically efficient way to estimate the possible cohomology dimensions across the entire parameter space.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cataclysmic Variables in the Second Year of the Zwicky Transient Facility

Using a filter in the GROWTH Marshal based on color and the amplitude and timescale of variability, we have identified 372 objects as known or candidate cataclysmic variables (CVs) during the second year of the operation of the Zwicky Transient Facility. From the available difference imaging data, we found that 93 are previously confirmed CVs and 279 are strong candidates. Spectra of four of the candidates confirm them as CVs by the presence of Balmer emission lines, while one of the four has prominent He ii lines indicative of containing a magnetic white dwarf. Gaia EDR3 parallaxes are available for 154 of these systems, resulting in distances from 108–2096 pc and absolute magnitudes in the range of 7.5–15.0, with the largest number of candidates between 10.5 and 12.5. The total numbers are 21% higher than from the previous year of the survey with a greater number of distances available but a smaller percentage of systems close to the Galactic plane. Comparison of these findings with a machine-learning method of searching all the light curves reveals large differences in each data set related to the parameters involved in the search process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (↗

DOE OSTI2025

Replace Human Intelligence with Fast and Smart Geometric Reasoning and Graph Neural Network to Accelerate Next Gen ModSim Workflows

We present an agent-guided approach to CAD geometry decomposition that automates hex/hybrid meshing with graph neural networks (GNNs) to accelerate next-generation ModSim workflows. Our end-to-end pipeline (i) reduces 3D boundary-representation (B-Rep) models to a 2D chordal axis skeleton (CAT) and then to a 1D bipartite graph of surface and curve nodes, (ii) assigns per node labels as Cubit® WebCut actions, (iii) trains a multi-action GNN under supervised learning, and (iv) predicts five surface-node and three curve-node actions on out-of-distribution test geometries. Each graph node carries geometric, topological, and meshing attributes drawn from the B-Rep “skin” and CAT “skeleton,” with two-way mappings across 3D↔2D↔1D representations to maintain traceability back to 3D CAD. The supervised learning model exhibits stable convergence of the binary cross-entropy loss and achieves 98.7% accuracy on unseen lattice models. To operationalize decision-making, we rank predicted commands by geometric significance and prototyped the agent-guided workflow through the Cubit® Meshing PowerTool GUI. As a stretch goal, we explore reinforcement learning (RL) to reduce or remove label requirements and to learn policies for action sequences that maximize total reward (e.g., size of hex-meshable regions and resulting hex mesh quality). When all-hex meshing is not feasible, the agent assists in producing hybrid meshes—prioritizing hex in critical regions and transitioning to tetrahedral elements (tets) elsewhere—maintaining fidelity while ensuring robustness. The overarching objective is to replace manual, heuristics-based decomposition with data-driven, reproducible automation, cutting meshing turnaround time by orders of magnitude. We anticipate direct impact on simulation workflows through intelligent, scalable decomposition of complex CAD models into hex-meshable subdomains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Closing the Loop between In Situ Stress Complexity and EGS Fracture Complexity

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Deeper, Wider, Faster programme: exploring stellar flare activity with deep, fast cadenced DECam imaging via machine learning

ABSTRACT We present our 500 pc distance-limited study of stellar flares using the Dark Energy Camera as part of the Deeper, Wider, Faster programme. The data were collected via continuous 20-s cadence g-band imaging and we identify 19 914 sources with precise distances from Gaia DR2 within 12, ∼3 deg2, fields over a range of Galactic latitudes. An average of ∼74 min is spent on each field per visit. All light curves were accessed through a novel unsupervised machine learning techniques designed for anomaly detection. We identify 96 flare events occurring across 80 stars, the majority of which are M dwarfs. Integrated flare energies range from ∼1031–1037 erg, with a proportional relationship existing between increased flare energy with increased distance from the Galactic plane, representative of stellar age leading to declining yet more energetic flare events. In agreement with previous studies we observe an increase in flaring fraction from M0 to M6 spectral types. Furthermore, we find a decrease in the flaring fraction of stars as vertical distance from the galactic plane is increased, with a steep decline present around ∼100 pc. We find that $\sim 70{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of identified flares occur on short time-scales of <8 min. Finally, we present our associated flare rates, finding a volumetric rate of 2.9 ± 0.3 × 10−6 flares pc−3 h−1.

Webb, S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Predictions of Neutron-rich Lanthanide Properties as a Probe of r -process Dynamics

Lanthanide element signatures are key to understanding many astrophysical observables, from merger kilonova light curves to stellar and solar abundances. To learn about the lanthanide element synthesis that enriched our solar system, we apply the statistical method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo to examine the nuclear masses capable of forming the r-process rare-earth abundance peak. We describe the physical constraints we implement with this statistical approach and demonstrate the use of the parallel chains method to explore the multidimensional parameter space. We apply our procedure to three moderately neutron-rich astrophysical outflows with distinct types of r-process dynamics. We show that the mass solutions found are dependent on outflow conditions and are related to the r-process path. We describe in detail the mechanism behind peak formation in each case. We then compare our mass predictions for neutron-rich neodymium and samarium isotopes to the latest experimental data from the CPT at CARIBU. Here, we find our mass predictions given outflows that undergo an extended (n,γ)⇌(γ,n) equilibrium to be those most compatible with both observational solar abundances and neutron-rich mass measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Propellant Mass Gauging in a Spherical Tank under Micro-Gravity Conditions Using Capacitance Plate Arrays and Machine Learning

Propellant mass gauging under micro-gravity conditions is a challenging task due to the unpredictable position and shape of the fuel body inside the tank. Micro-gravity conditions are common for orbiting satellites and rockets that operate on limited fuel supplies. Capacitance sensors have been investigated for this task in recent years; however, the effect of various positions and shapes of the fuel body is not analyzed in detail. In this paper, we investigate this with various fill types, such as annular, core-annular, and stratified fills at different positions. We compare the performance among several curve-fitting-based approaches and a machine-learning-based approach, the latter of which offers superior performance in estimating the fuel content.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Earth as a Proxy Exoplanet: Deconstructing and Reconstructing Spectrophotometric Light Curves

Point-source spectrophotometric (single-point) light curves of Earth-like planets contain a surprising amount of information about the spatial features of those worlds. Spatially resolving these light curves is important for assessing time-varying surface features and the existence of an atmosphere, which in turn is critical to life on Earth and significant for determining habitability on exoplanets. Given that Earth is the only celestial body confirmed to harbor life, treating it as a proxy exoplanet by analyzing time-resolved spectral images provides a benchmark in the search for habitable exoplanets. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) provides such an opportunity, with observations of ∼5000 full-disk sunlit Earth images each year at 10 wavelengths with high temporal frequency. We disk-integrate these spectral images to create single-point light curves and decompose them into principal components (PCs). Using machine-learning techniques to relate the PCs to six preselected spatial features, we find that the first and fourth PCs of the single-point light curves, contributing ∼83.23% of the light-curve variability, contain information about low and high clouds, respectively. Surface information relevant to the contrast between land and ocean reflectance is contained in the second PC, while individual land subtypes are not easily distinguishable (<0.1% total light-curve variation). We build an Earth model by systematically altering the spatial features to derive causal relationships to the PCs. This model can serve as a baseline for analyzing Earth-like exoplanets and guide wavelength selection and sampling strategies for future observations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Learning Coarse-Grained Potentials for Binary Fluids

Even though atomistic and CG models have been used to simulate liquid nanodroplets in vapor, very few rigorous studies of the liquid-liquid interface structure are available, and most of them are limited to planar interfaces. In this work, we evaluate several existing force fields (FF)s, including two atomistic and three CG FFs, with respect to modeling the interface structure and thermodynamic properties of the water-hexane interface. Both atomistic FFs are able to quantitatively reproduce the interfacial tension and the coexisting densities of the experimentally-observed planar interface. We use the atomistic FFs to model water droplets in hexane and use these simulations to test the CG FFs. We found that the tested CG FFs cannot reproduce the interfacial tensions of planar and/or curved interfaces. Finally, we propose a new approach for learning coarse-grained (CG) potentials within the CG SDK (Shinoda-DeVane- Klein) FF framework from atomistic simulation data. We demonstrate that the new potential significantly improves the prediction of both the interfacial tension and structure of water-hexane planar and curved interfaces.

Gao, Peiyuan↗