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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗
NASA NTRS1979

Boundary conditions for implicit solutions to the compressible Navier-Stokes equations in finite computational domains

The admissible boundary conditions for the unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are insufficient to determine completely the flow variables at grid points on the boundaries of a finite computational domain. A general method is presented in which the boundary conditions are supplemented by conservatively differenced forms of the flow equations. For implicit algorithms, the method provides a fully implicit coupling between boundary and interior points. Implicit boundary-point computation schemes are given for most types of flow boundary encountered in internal and external flow problems. Convergence to steady state is generally faster than with locally explicit boundary-point schemes.

Thomas, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of Probabilistic Engineering Methods in the Detailed Design and Development Phases of the NASA Ares Launch Vehicle

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.

Fayssal, Safie↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS1991

A finite element model of conduction, convection, and phase change near a solid/melt interface

Detailed understanding of heat transfer and fluid flow is required for many aerospace thermal systems. These systems often include phase change and operate over a range of accelerations or effective gravitational fields. An approach to analyzing such systems is presented which requires the simultaneous solution of the conservation laws of energy, momentum, and mass, as well as an equation of state. The variable property form of the governing equations are developed in two-dimensional Cartesian coordinates for a Newtonian fluid. A numerical procedure for solving the governing equations is presented and implemented in a computer program. The Galerkin form of the finite element method is used to solve the spatial variation of the field variables, along with the implicit Crank-Nicolson time marching algorithm. Quadratic Langrangian elements are used for the internal energy and the two components of velocity. Linear Lagrangian elements are used for the pressure. The location of the solid/liquid interface as well as the temperatures are determined form the calculated internal energy and pressure. This approach is quite general in that it can describe heat transfer without phase change, phase change with a sharp interface, and phase change without an interface. Analytical results from this model are compared to those of other researchers studying transient conduction, convection, and phase change and are found to be in good agreement. The numerical procedure presented requires significant computer resources, but this is not unusual when compared to similar studies by other researchers. Several methods are suggested to reduce the computational times.

Viterna, Larry A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Kalman-Filter Estimation Of Unmeasured Output Variables

Kalman-filter "observer" algorithm used in estimating unmeasured output variables of turbofan engine. Unmeasured output variables needed along with measured output variables as feedback data to characterize state of aircraft-and-engine system for control purposes. Subsystem or processor implementing Kalman-filter algorithm incorporated into adaptive digital control system, called "performance-seeking" control system, developed to compute engine-control settings to optimize performance of aircraft under given pseudo-steady-state cruise conditions. Basic concept of algorithm not restricted to aircraft-engine application and can be extended to internal-combustion engines in land vehicles.

Gilyard, Glenn B.↗
NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) TOPEX/Poseidon: Four Years of Synoptic Oceanography

Exceeding all expectations of measurement precision and accuracy, the US/France TOPEX/Poseidon satellite mission is now in its 5th year. Returning more than 98 percent of the altimetric data, the measured global geocentric height of the sea surface has provided unprecedented opportunities to address a host of scientific problems ranging from the dynamics of ocean circulation to the distribution of internal tidal energy. Scientific highlights of this longest-running altimetric satellite mission include improvements in our understanding of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the large-scale ocean variability, such as, the properties of planetary waves; the energetics of basin-wide gyres; the heat budget of the ocean; and the ocean's response to wind forcing. For the first time, oceanographers have quantitative descriptions of a dynamic variable of the physical state of the global oceans available in near-real-time.

oceanography planetary waves wind forcing sea-surf↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Earth Observing System (EOS)

The Earth Observing System is a US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) program consisting of a science segment, a data system, and a space segment made up of a series of polar-orbiting and mid-inclination satellites for long-term monitoring of the Earth as an integrated system, including observations of the land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and oceans. Initially conceived in the mid-late 1980s, it was implemented as a series of large "flagship" missions and smaller focused satellites, often in partnership with instruments and sometimes spacecraft from other nations. In 1984 NASA formed several instrument panels to develop concepts for “facility instruments” that would provide comprehensive support to the scientific and applications’ communities, each with a supporting science team competitively selected via peer-review. An Announcement of Opportunity was released in 1988 and proposals were solicited for three types of proposals: (i) instrument investigations that would include the provision of instrumentation for flight on a polar platform, including non-Earth science payloads requiring polar orbits (PI instruments), (ii) research facility instrument team member and team leader investigations for facility instruments, and (iii) interdisciplinary science investigations to provide data analysis and modeling, preparing to use data acquired from the space platforms. The initial selections made in 1989 included support for 24 instrument investigations, 6 research facility instrument investigations, and 28 interdisciplinary investigations. Although considerable changes were made over the years in the structure and orbital configuration of the various instruments and platforms, a total of 10 different missions were eventually flown, as shown in Fig. 1. These included three multiinstrument flagship platforms known as Terra (launched in 1999), Aqua (launched in 2002), and Aura (launched in 2004), where the Terra mission emphasis was primarily on land processes, Aqua on the hydrological cycle, and Aura on atmospheric chemistry. In addition to these flagship missions the EOS missions included Landsat 7 (land cover classification and change), QuikScat (wind speed and direction over the oceans), Jason-1 (ocean surface topography and sea level), ACRIMSAT (total solar irradiance (TSI)), SAGE III (stratospheric aerosol and ozone levels), ICESat (ice, cloud, and land elevation), and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment; total and spectral solar irradiance). In addition EOS supported CERES (an Earth radiation budget sensor) and LIS (a lightning sensor), that flew as part of the NASA/JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (1997), and SeaWinds (wind speed and direction), that flew as part of the short-lived ADEOS II (Midori II, 2002) mission of JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). The EOS contributions are too numerous to present in detail in this article, but can be viewed for convenience as a means of obtaining global measurements (with appropriate characteristics) of the 24 variables and variable groups listed in Table 1. This table was created by the EOS community in the late 1990s as a way to succinctly indicate which instruments on the various EOS platforms were expected to contribute to each of the specified variables in primary (bold), secondary (bold italics), or contributing (roman) roles. All of the science data products produced by these space missions are available without charge throughout the world, and are thus highly valued for their many contributions to applications such as air quality, fires, land cover change, and the state of the oceans, as well as for science and monitoring of the state of the Earth system and its changes over time. These and other international satellites have played a crucial role in understanding and documenting global change, including (i) global surface temperature and atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles, (ii) glacial retreat, (iii) sea ice extent and change, (iv) solar radiation into and out of the Earth-atmosphere system, (v) atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties, (vi) sources and sinks of

ICESat↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Engineering Toward Commercial Supersonic Flight: NASA's Quesst Mission

NASA’s Quesst Mission has dual goals of demonstrating low-noise supersonic technology in flight and surveying public reactions to low-noise supersonic overflight. For half a century, commercial aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound over land to prevent “creating an unacceptable situation” on the ground due to sonic booms. However, aircraft shaping techniques honed through decades of research have dramatically changed the way shockwaves from supersonic flight merge together as they travel to the ground. What used to sound like a boom on the ground will be transformed into a thump. NASA is now building a full-scale, piloted demonstration aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. In 2024, the X-59 aircraft will commence a national series of community overflight surveys to collect data on how people perceive “sonic thumps.” The results will be provided to national and international noise regulators as they consider creating new standards that allow commercial supersonic flight over land at acceptably low noise levels. In this presentation we provide historical context for the current prohibitions on supersonic commercial flight. Using data collected during earlier NASA tests, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models can be used to inform the functional dose-response curve. We also illustrate simulation experiments of the variability of sonic thump exposure across the United States. Finally, we discuss some of the challenges in designing the future community studies and generalizing them to a nationally-representative dose-response curve.

Quesst↗
NASA NTRS2003

Low Earth Orbit Plasma Variability Model

The empirical International Reference Ionosphere is a widely used model for estimating low Earth orbit plasma characteristics for use in spacecraft design and mission analysis. The climatological model provides mean values of plasma density, temperature, composition, and other ionospheric parameters that can be used to estimate the average magnitude of spacecraft charging, current collection for electrodynamic tethers, and other effects on spacecraft design. Mean IRI parameters are not adequate to answer questions such as what is the maximum or minimum value of the spacecraft potential, does the maximum spacecraft potential exceed a program requirement, will an electrodynamic tether provide adequate drag to deorbit a satellite at end of life, and will the tether provide sufficient thrust to reboost a spacecraft at any time in the solar cycle. These questions require estimates of the variability of the ionospheric environment about the mean values. This presentation describes the status of work at MSFC to develop an empirical ionospheric variability model that can be used in conjunction with the climatological IRI model to provide both mean ionospheric parameters and variations of the environment about the mean. Our technique will use an extensive database of satellite and radar observations of the electron density and temperature to derive variances of the data about the model values. The variances will then be incorporated into Fortran wrapper software that calls the IRI-2001 model and provides statistical estimates of the deviation of the environment about the mean IRI values. We will provide an update on the state of the database development and provide examples of analysis and modeling efforts completed specifically for an International Space Station application.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Innovative Tools Advance Revolutionary Weld Technique

The iconic, orange external tank of the space shuttle launch system not only contains the fuel used by the shuttle s main engines during liftoff but also comprises the shuttle s backbone, supporting the space shuttle orbiter and solid rocket boosters. Given the tank s structural importance and the extreme forces (7.8 million pounds of thrust load) and temperatures it encounters during launch, the welds used to construct the tank must be highly reliable. Variable polarity plasma arc welding, developed for manufacturing the external tank and later employed for building the International Space Station, was until 1994 the best process for joining the aluminum alloys used during construction. That year, Marshall Space Flight Center engineers began experimenting with a relatively new welding technique called friction stir welding (FSW), developed in 1991 by The Welding Institute, of Cambridge, England. FSW differs from traditional fusion welding in that it is a solid-state welding technique, using frictional heat and motion to join structural components without actually melting any of the material. The weld is created by a shouldered pin tool that is plunged into the seam of the materials to be joined. The tool traverses the line while rotating at high speeds, generating friction that heats and softens but does not melt the metal. (The heat produced approaches about 80 percent of the metal s melting temperature.) The pin tool s rotation crushes and stirs the plasticized metal, extruding it along the seam as the tool moves forward. The material cools and consolidates, resulting in a weld with superior mechanical properties as compared to those weld properties of fusion welds. The innovative FSW technology promises a number of attractive benefits. Because the welded materials are not melted, many of the undesirables associated with fusion welding porosity, cracking, shrinkage, and distortion of the weld are minimized or avoided. The process is more energy efficient, safe (no toxic smoke or shielding gas, liquid metal splatter, arcing, dangerous voltage, or radiation), and environmentally sound (no consumables, fumes, or noise) than fusion welding. Under computer control, an automated FSW machine can create welds with high reproducibility, improving efficiency and overall quality of manufactured materials. The process also allows for welding dissimilar metals as well as those metals considered to be "unweldable" such as the 7xxx series aluminum alloys. Its effectiveness and versatility makes FSW useful for aerospace, rail, automotive, marine, and military applications. A downside to FSW, however, is the keyhole opening left in the weld when the FSW pin tool exits the weld joint. This is a significant problem when using the FSW process to join circumferential structures such as pipes and storage containers. Furthermore, weld joints that taper in material thickness also present problems when using the conventional FSW pin tool, because the threaded pin rotating within the weld joint material is a fixed length. There must be capability for the rotating pin to both increase and decrease in length in real time while welding the tapered material. (Both circumferential and tapered thickness weldments are found in the space shuttle external tank.) Marshall engineers addressed both the keyhole and tapered material thickness problems by developing the auto-adjustable pin tool. This unique piece of equipment automatically withdraws the pin into the tool s shoulder for keyhole closeout. In addition, the auto-adjustable pin tool retracts, or shortens, the rotating pin while welding a weld joint that tapers from one thickness to a thinner thickness. This year, the impact of the Marshall innovation was recognized with an "Excellence in Technology Transfer Award" from the Federal Laboratory Consortium.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1978

Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2008

Solid-State Lighting Module (SSLM)

The project's goal was to build a light-emitting-diode (LED)-based light fixture that is identical in fit, form, and function to the existing International Space Station (ISS) General Luminaire Assembly (GLA) light fixture and fly it on the ISS in early FY 2008 as a Station Detailed Test Objective (SDTO). Our design offers the following strengths: proven component hardware: Our design uses components flown in other KSC-developed hardware; heat path thermal pad: LED array heat is transferred from the circuit board by silicon pad, negating the need for a cooling fan; variable colorimetry: The output light color can be changed by inserting different LED combinations.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2018

Polarimetric Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Aerosols: Instruments, Methodologies, Results, and Perspectives

Polarimetry is one of the most promising types of remote sensing for improved characterization of atmospheric aerosol. Indeed, aerosol particles constitute a highly variable atmospheric component characterized by a large number of parameters describing particle sizes, morphologies (including shape and internal structure), absorption and scattering properties, amounts, horizontal and vertical distribution, etc. Reliable monitoring of all these parameters is very challenging, and therefore the aerosol effects on climate and environment are considered to be among the most uncertain factors in climate and environmental research. In this regard, observations that provide both the angular distribution of the scattered atmospheric radiation as well as its polarization state at multiple wavelengths covering the UV–SWIR spectral range carry substantial implicit information on the atmospheric composition. Therefore, high expectations in improving aerosol characterization are associated with detailed passive photopolarimetric observations. The critical need to use space-borne polarimetry for global accurate monitoring of detailed aerosol properties was first articulated in the late 1980s and early 1990s. By now, several orbital instruments have already provided polarization observations from space, and a number of advanced missions are scheduled for launch in the coming years by international and national space agencies. The first and most extensive record of polarimetric imagery was provided by POLDER-I, POLDER-II, and POLDER/PARASOL multi-angle multi-spectral polarization sensors. Polarimetric observations with the POLDER-like design intended for collecting extensive multi-angular multi-spectral measurements will be provided by several instruments, such as the MAI/TG-2, CAPI/TanSat, and DPC/GF-5 sensors recently launched by the Chinese Space Agency. Instruments such as the 3MI/MetOp-SG, MAIA, SpexOne and HARP2 on PACE, POSP, SMAC, PCF, DPC–Lidar, ScanPol and MSIP/Aerosol-UA, MAP/Copernicus CO2 Monitoring, etc. are planned to be launched by different space agencies in the coming decade. The concepts of these future instruments, their technical designs, and the accompanying algorithm development have been tested intensively and analyzed using diverse airborne prototypes. Certain polarimetric capabilities have also been implemented in such satellite sensors as GOME-2/MetOp and SGLI/GCOM-C.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS1998

Advanced Electric Distribution, Switching, and Conversion Technology for Power Control

The Electrical Power Control Unit currently under development by Sundstrand Aerospace for use on the Fluids Combustion Facility of the International Space Station is the precursor of modular power distribution and conversion concepts for future spacecraft and aircraft applications. This unit combines modular current-limiting flexible remote power controllers and paralleled power converters into one package. Each unit includes three 1-kW, current-limiting power converter modules designed for a variable-ratio load sharing capability. The flexible remote power controllers can be used in parallel to match load requirements and can be programmed for an initial ON or OFF state on powerup. The unit contains an integral cold plate. The modularity and hybridization of the Electrical Power Control Unit sets the course for future spacecraft electrical power systems, both large and small. In such systems, the basic hybridized converter and flexible remote power controller building blocks could be configured to match power distribution and conversion capabilities to load requirements. In addition, the flexible remote power controllers could be configured in assemblies to feed multiple individual loads and could be used in parallel to meet the specific current requirements of each of those loads. Ultimately, the Electrical Power Control Unit design concept could evolve to a common switch module hybrid, or family of hybrids, for both converter and switchgear applications. By assembling hybrids of a common current rating and voltage class in parallel, researchers could readily adapt these units for multiple applications. The Electrical Power Control Unit concept has the potential to be scaled to larger and smaller ratings for both small and large spacecraft and for aircraft where high-power density, remote power controllers or power converters are required and a common replacement part is desired for multiples of a base current rating.

Soltis, James V.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Downscaling and Validation of SMAP Radiometer Soil Moisture in CONUS

The SMAP (Soil Moisture Active/Passive) satellite provides global soil moisture (SM) estimates that can be used for scientific research and applications (such as the hydrological cycle, agriculture, ecology, and land atmosphere interactions). Currently, SMAP provides the enhanced radiometer-only SM product (L2SMP) at 9 km grid resolution. However, this spatial resolution is still not enough to satisfy the needs of some studies that require a finer spatial resolution SM product, particularly in agricultural and watershed applications. This study applied a downscaling algorithm to the SMAP 9 km SM product to produce a 1 km resolution over the CONUS (Contiguous United States). The downscaling algorithm is based on the relationship between temperature change and SM modulated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of a given time period. This relationship was modeled using variables derived from NLDAS (North America Land Data Assimilation System) and NASA's LTDR (Land Long Term Data Record) between 1981-2018. The algorithm was implemented uses the 1 km MODIS Aqua LST (Land Surface Temperature) product. The downscaled SMAP 1 km SM was validated using in situ SM measurements from the ISMN (International Soil Moisture Network). The validation metrics show an improved overall accuracy of the downscaled SM.

downscaling↗
NASA NTRS1975

Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

Friedman, N.↗