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At least 181 records · Page 10

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗

Assessment of the Distributed Ledger Technology for Energy Sector Industrial and Operational Applications Using the MITRE ATT&CK® ICS Matrix

In recent times, Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) has gained significant attention for its potential application in the energy sector. Utilizing blockchain and DLT has demonstrated the ability to enhance the resilience of the electric infrastructure, which will support a more flexible infrastructure and advance grid modernization. However, the deployment of these technologies increases the overall attack surface. The MITRE ATT&CK® matrices have been developed to document an adversary’s tactics and techniques based on real-world observations. The MITRE ATT&CK® matrices provide a common taxonomy for offense and defense and have become a valuable conceptual tool across multiple cybersecurity disciplines for conveying threat intelligence, performing testing through red teaming or adversary emulation, and enhancing network and system defenses against intrusions. The MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) matrix was created to provide knowledge about adversary behavior in the ICS technology domain. This study analyzes the relevance of various tactics and techniques across a seven-layer DLT engineering and cybersecurity stack, known as the DLT stack, designed by the Cybersecurity Taskforce under IEEE P2418.5 - Standard for Blockchain in Energy working group sponsored by Power and Energy Systems - Smart Buildings, Loads and Customer Systems (PES/SBLC) Technical Committee. Additionally, this paper identifies specific mitigation strategies tailored to the energy ICS environment

42 ENGINEERING↗

Feature Engineering and Ensemble Methods for Imbalanced ICS Intrusion Detection: Pipeline Audit and Constrained Evaluation

Industries are becoming increasingly connected and are more vulnerable to cyberattacks due to the widened attack surface. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are among the most critical sectors that malicious actors can target, as such attacks can cause significant operational disruption and physical damage. It is imperative to detect such attacks as early as possible. This paper evaluates constraint-conditioned optimistic performance estimates for traditional ML models in ICS intrusion detection (i.e., estimates obtained under contiguous, non-shuffled temporal evaluation without test-set alteration, but with pre-split feature engineering that may introduce temporal leakage, due to dataset constraints). Our findings are threefold. First, we quantify how iterative feature engineering affects tree-based ensemble performance and examine how pipeline decisions (split strategy, sampling scope, and cleaning policy) can inflate or reduce reported IDS results under constraint-bound evaluation. Second, we compare intrinsic class-imbalance handling across ensemble models. Third, under our current pipeline constraints (including pre-split feature engineering), CatBoost achieves the best performance on Water Storage Tank (accuracy: 0.9831, class-1 F1: 0.9682), while Light- GBM achieves the best performance on Gas Pipeline (accuracy: 0.9618, class-1 F1: 0.9086).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Comprehensive Approach towards Multi-Objective EMI Filter Design Optimization in High-Frequency SiC-Based Motor Drives

With rapid penetration of high-frequency, highdensity power electronics into the industry, controlling the system generated EMI becomes one of the major design challenges. Designing practical optimized EMI filters require simultaneous consideration of multiple aspects - including electromagnetic couplings, magnetic materials, practical component parasitics and their impacts at high-frequencies, and also the overall manufacturing costs. The multi-dimensional nature of the problem often results in overcompensated designs that hurt the system efficiency and power density. This paper focuses on a comprehensive design platform (developed in MATLAB) towards designing high-density, optimized, highly efficient EMI filters by analyzing the generated noise spectrum and evaluating a vast array of potential solutions before outputting an optimized filter solution. The proposed tool includes database-based component selection, optimal topology selection, multistage filter design, overall optimization for volume, mass, cost and total loss. The proposed filter has been thoroughly evaluated in a PSIM simulation environment emulating the hardware in CRD300DA12EXM3, a 300kW three-phase inverter from Wolfspeed with an RL load representing a motor drive application. Furthermore, a 20kHz switching frequency is chosen and impacts of the motor high-frequency characteristics on the generated EMI noise spectrum of the overall system have been analyzed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Self-Supervised and Interpretable Anomaly Detection Using Network Transformers

Machine learning and deep neural networks (DNNs) have been proposed as a tool to identify anomalies in computer network communications. However, due the obfuscated nature of off-the-shelf machine learning models, their output often does not provide enough information to isolate the source of the anomaly to take corrective measures. In this article, we introduce the network transformer (NeT), a DNN model for anomaly detection that incorporates the graph structure of the communication network in order to improve interpretability. Further, the presented approach has the following advantages: first, enhanced interpretability by incorporating the graph structure of computer networks; second, provides a hierarchical set of features that enables analysis at different levels of granularity; second, self-supervised training that does not require labeled data. The NeT model was evaluated on a set of anomalous scenarios executed in a real industrial control system. The presented approach successfully identified the anomalies, the devices affected, and the specific connections causing the anomalies, providing a data-driven hierarchical approach to analyze the behavior of a cyber network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detecting Hardware Trojans in PCBs Using Side Channel Loopbacks

Malicious modifications to printed circuit boards (PCBs) are known as hardware Trojans. These may arise when malafide third parties alter PCBs premanufacturing or postmanufacturing and are a concern in safety-critical applications, such as industrial control systems. In this research, we examine how data-driven detection can be utilized to detect such Trojans at run-time. We develop a flexible and reconfigurable PCB test bed derived from the popular open-source programmable logic controller (PLC) platform “OpenPLC.” We then develop a Trojan detection framework, which utilizes and analyzes multimodal side channels (e.g., timing, magnetic signals, power, and hardware performance counters). We consider defender-configurable input/output (I/O) loopback test, comparison with design-document baselines, and magnetometer-aided monitoring of system behavior under defender-chosen excitations. Our approach can extend to golden-free environments. Golden (known-good) versions of the PCBs are assumed not available, but design information, datasheets, and component-level data are available. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on a range of Trojans instantiated in the test bed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mitigation of External Exposure of Energy Delivery System (MEEDS).

MEEDS is a cybersecurity solution that empowers under resourced owners and operators of critical energy infrastructure to rapidly identify and detect the publicly exposed and vulnerable operational technology (OT) and other critical Industrial Control and Energy Delivery Systems.

Mylrea, Michael↗

Cytrics Repository Of Analysis Tools And Engineering Resources

Cybersecurity Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems (CyTRICS) is a DOE-funded project that works with vendors to evaluate the cybersecurity of equipment used in US critical infrastructure. In the process of testing systems, CyTRICS researchers often develop custom tools. The tools in this repository were developed during multiple CyTRICS tests to assist with the testing process. They help solve problems encountered by CyTRICS researchers and address uncommon testing subjects for which limited tooling is available. They are useful to other researchers working on similar systems and architectures.

Laird, SutterE↗

AdCyDER Attack Simulator

SF-25-117 A framework for simulating various cyber attacks on industrial control systems and SCADA environments.

Blakely, Benjamin↗

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Digital Biosecurity Pilot Project

Security models for the bioeconomy have largely been developed on risk profiles borrowed from the financial industry and, in some cases, industrial control systems. The bioeconomy, however, has unique characteristics that require domain-specific knowledge of the risks to environmental, health and economic impact from directly targeted attacks. Key questions need to be assessed and answered for any facility engaged in bioproduction. These include: how much technical information must the attacker possess in order to target a specific process or facility? Which processes cause the largest economic impact if disrupted? Can an attacker lead companies down the wrong path of research, leading to irrecoverable losses of time, resources and capital? Can attackers disrupt venture capital strategies and affect financial returns? What are the resources required to attack key workflows, and subsequently what is the cost of defense? What strategies are effective against such attackers, and what are their cost? Can government provide an active role in assurance of material, process and results for critical bioeconomic infrastructure?

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

RAMSeS: Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems

Over the past few decades, software has become ubiquitous as it has been integrated into nearly every aspect of society, including household appliances, consumer electronics, industrial control systems, public utilities, government operations, and military systems. Consequently, many critical national security questions can no longer be answered convincingly without understanding software, including its purpose, its capabilities, its flaws, its communication, or how it processes and stores data. As software continues to become larger, more complex, and more widespread, our ability to answer important mission questions and reason about software in a timely way is falling behind. Today, to achieve such understanding of third-party software, we rely predominantly on the ability of reverse engineering experts to manually answer each particular mission question for every software system of interest. This approach often requires heroic human effort that nevertheless fails to meet current mission needs and will never scale to meet future needs. The result is an emerging crisis: a massive and expanding gap between the national security need to answer mission questions about software and our ability to do so. Sandia National Laboratories has established the Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems (RAMSeS) effort, a collaborative long-term effort aimed at dramatically improving our nation’s ability to answer mission questions about third-party software by growing an ecosystem of tools that augment the human reverse engineer through automation, interoperability, and reuse. Focusing on static analysis of binary programs, we are attempting to identify reusable software analysis components that advance our ability to reason about software, to automate useful aspects of the software analysis process, and to integrate new methodologies and capabilities into a working ecosystem of tools and experts. We aim to integrate existing tools where possible, adapt tools when modest modifications will enable them to interoperate, and implement missing capability when necessary. Although we do hope to automate a growing set of analysis tasks, we will approach this goal incrementally by assisting the human in an ever-widening range of tasks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

First Report of the Nuclear Data Subcommittee of the Nuclear Science Advisory Committee

Accurate, reliable nuclear data is essential for the success of Federal missions such as nonproliferation, nuclear forensics, homeland security, national defense, space exploration, clean energy generation, and scientific research. Data access is also key to innovative commercial developments such as new medicines, automated industrial controls, energy exploration, energy security, nuclear reactor design, and isotope production. The United States Nuclear Data Program (USNDP) is the domestic custodian of nuclear data. In its April 2022 meeting, the DOE/NSF Nuclear Science Advisory Committee was charged with preparing two reports on nuclear data. In this first report, we review recent accomplishments of the USNDP and discuss complementary and collaborative international efforts. Detailed descriptions of nuclear data needs for basic science, nonproliferation, national security, nuclear energy together with medical and space applications are also presented. Lastly, a set of specific cross-cutting nuclear data needs with relevance for multiple applications areas are also identified for further discussion in a follow-on report planned for release at the end of January 2023.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Toward a Resilient Cybersecure Hydropower Fleet: Cybersecurity Landscape and Roadmap 2021

With this roadmap, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) hopes to assist the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) in improving the cybersecurity of hydropower plants across the nation. This effort draws upon collected data from the dams sector, from industrial control system cybersecurity threat reports, from similar work focused on neighboring sectors, and from frank discussions with owners, operators, and vendors. While remaining tightly focused on the needs of hydropower projects, during this landscape study and development of the resulting roadmap, the research team sought to remain informed by the larger energy sector’s vision and direction so that the topics and milestones may fit within a larger vision common to the whole.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Cyber-CHAMP White Paper

Cyber-CHAMP white paper intern school assignment. Worldwide there is a tremendous shortfall in the cybersecurity workforce. By 2021, researchers have forecasted a deficit of 3.5 million cyber professionals. As workforce capabilities diminished, the world's cybersecurity threats have continued to multiply. Industrial control systems (ICSs) and their operational technology (OT) components became more vulnerable to attack and compromise. When an ICS is compromised, attackers can cause widespread impacts on national security, public health, and safety. This capacity makes ICSs attractive targets, with 90% of surveyed OT organizations reporting a damaging cyberattack in the last two years. To address the risk to ICSs, personnel must be competent in operational best practices and the latest threats. While frameworks for information technology (IT) cybersecurity education have been developed, educational standards for OT cybersecurity are nonexistent.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) for System-Level Design Analysis

Cybersecurity is a persistent concern to the safety and security of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), but has lacked data-driven, evidence-based research. Rigorous cybersecurity analysis is critical for the licensing of advanced reactors using a performance-based approach. One tool that enables cybersecurity analysis is modeling and simulation. The nuclear industry makes extensive use of modeling and simulation throughout the decision process but lacks a method to incorporate cybersecurity analysis with existing models. To meet this need, the Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) was developed. ARCADE is a suite of publicly available tools that can be used to develop emulations of industrial control system devices and networks and integrate those emulations with physics simulators. This integration of cyber emulations and physics models enables rigorous cyber-physical analysis of cyber-attacks on NPP systems. This report provides an overview of key considerations for using ARCADE with existing physics models and demonstrates ARCADE’s capabilities for cybersecurity analysis. Using a model of the Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor (SmAHTR), ARCADE was able to determine the sensitivity of the primary heat exchangers (PHX) to coordinated cyber-attacks. The analysis determined that while the PHX’s failures cause disruption to the reactor, they did not cause any safety limits to be exceeded because of the plant design, including passive safety features. Further development of ARCADE will enable rigorous, repeatable, and automated cyber-physical analysis of advanced reactor control systems. These efforts will also help reduce regulatory uncertainty by presenting similar types of cybersecurity analyses in a common format, driving standard approaches and reporting.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗