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At least 181 records · Page 10

Anthropogenic effects on flood hazards in a hyper-arid watershed: The 2015 Atacama floods

An unprecedented precipitation event in the hyper-arid Atacama Desert of Northern Chile occurred in March 2015. Geomorphic alterations to the river channel and the coastal zone, coupled with the exceptional magnitude of the rainfall, caused catastrophic damage and loss of life. On the coast of the El Salado watershed, legacy mine tailings infilled the watershed-ocean connection, while the river channel was altered both by tailings and urbanization. The consequences of this event resulted from the coupling of anthropogenic geomorphic changes with an unusual climate event. Lack of field data, complex geomorphology and sediment loads influenced by human activity make analysing floods in these regions especially challenging. The objective of this work is to improve our understanding of the factors that control flood hazards by using numerical simulations to reconstruct the 2015 flood in El Salado. We carry out unsteady two-dimensional simulations fully coupled with the sediment concentration to identify the influence of tailing deposits, considering high-resolution data of the pre- and post-2015 flood topography. In conclusion, the results highlight the importance of specific event-based studies, using models that can help designing better strategies for climate change adaptation and risk mitigation, while providing information for risk reduction and channel restoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Ecological Impacts of Dry and Hot Shocks in the Land of Midnight Sun

Contreras-Serrano et al. (2025) and Heinzelmann et al. (2025) investigated how droughts and heatwaves affect plant physiology and community functions in the Arctic. At first glance, such studies may seem counterintuitive. As the Earth's refrigerator, the Arctic is probably the least likely place that one might associate with droughts and heatwaves. However, dry and hot shocks do occur there, and their frequency and intensity can be surprisingly high. On June 20, 2020, the thermometer at the weather station of the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk (67.55° N and 133.40° E) witnessed a record temperature of 38°C in the Article Circle (Ciavarella et al. 2021). This record Arctic temperature was the consequence of the congruence of the powers of the stratospheric polar vortex, the tropospheric jet stream, and the Arctic Oscillation, all of which reached record strength in the early months of 2020, priming the conditions for an unprecedented ecological disturbance (Overland and Wang 2021). This extreme event, now known as the 2020 Siberian heatwave, caused widespread wildfires, insect outbreaks, and permafrost degradation, releasing almost 60 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere (ESOTC 2020). Extreme weather events like this are not just limited to Siberia (Dobricic et al. 2020). The Arctic has warmed up much faster than the rest of the world, that is, “Arctic Amplification” (Moon et al. 2024). The total land area affected by severe, extreme, and very extreme heatwaves has doubled, tripled, and quadrupled, respectively, across the terrestrial Arctic since the 1950s, and the extent is projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century (Rantanen et al. 2024).

Arctic↗

Active Experiments in Space: Past, Present, and Future

Between 1958 and 1962 the United States and the Soviet Union performed several nuclear detonation tests in the atmosphere, including the Starfish Prime event which involved a 1.4 Mt explosion at 400 km altitude over Johnston island on July 9, 1962 (Gombosi et al., 2017). These tests can be considered as the beginning of active experiments in space (i.e., experiments that deliberately perturb the local environment). They demonstrated the potential destructive power of high-altitude nuclear explosions, both in terms of the resulting electromagnetic pulse as well as for the creation of a potentially long-lasting artificial radiation belt from the radioactive fission debris. For instance,one of the unintended consequences of Starfish Prime was to cripple at least seven spacecraft in low-Earth orbit (LEO), about a third of the LEO spacecraft of the time (Gombosi et al., 2017).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Water and Metasomatism in the Slave Cratonic Lithosphere (Canada): An FTIR Study

Water in the mantle influences melting, viscosity, seismic velocity, and electrical conductivity. The role played by water in the long-term stabilization of cratonic roots is currently being debated. This study focuses on water contents of mantle minerals (olivine, pyroxene and garnet) from xenoliths found in kimberlites of the Archean Slave craton. 19 mantle xenoliths from central Lac de Gras, and 10 from northern Jericho were analyzed by FTIR for water, and their equilibration depths span the several compositional layers identified beneath the region. At both locations, the shallow peridotites have lower water contents in their olivines (11-30 ppm H2O) than those from the deeper layers (28-300 ppm H2O). The driest olivines, however, are not at the base of the cratonic lithosphere (>6 GPa) as in the Kaapvaal craton. Instead, the deepest olivines are hydrous (31-72 ppm H2O at Lac de Gras and 275 ppm H2O at Jericho). Correlations of water in clinopyroxene and garnet with their other trace element contents are consistent with water being added by metasomatism by melts resembling kimberlite precursors in the mantle approx.0.35 Ga ago beneath Lac de Gras. The northern Jericho xenoliths are derived from a region of the Slave craton that is even more chemically stratified, and was affected at depth by the 1.27 Ga Mackenzie igneous events. Metasomatism at Jericho may be responsible for the particularly high olivine water contents (up to 300 ppm H2O) compared to those at Lac de Gras, which will be investigated by acquiring trace-element data on these xenoliths. These data indicate that several episodes of metasomatic rehydration occurred in the deep part of the Slave craton mantle lithosphere, with the process being more intense in the northern part beneath Jericho, likely related to a translithospheric suture serving as a channel to introduce fluids and/or melts in the northern region. Consequently, rehydration of the lithosphere does not necessarily cause cratonic root delamination and these peridotites may represent localized metasomatic zones - the wall rocks to kimberlite magma passage.

Kilgore, McKensie↗

Unexpected Control Structure Interaction on International Space Station

On June 23, 2011, the International Space Station (ISS) was performing a routine 180 degree yaw maneuver in support of a Russian vehicle docking when the on board Russian Segment (RS) software unexpectedly declared two attitude thrusters failed and switched thruster configurations in response to unanticipated ISS dynamic motion. Flight data analysis after the maneuver indicated that higher than predicted structural loads had been induced at various locations on the United States (U.S.) segment of the ISS. Further analysis revealed that the attitude control system was firing thrusters in response to both structural flex and rigid body rates, which resonated the structure and caused high loads and fatigue cycles. It was later determined that the thruster themselves were healthy. The RS software logic, which was intended to react to thruster failures, had instead been heavily influenced by interaction between the control system and structural flex. This paper will discuss the technical aspects of the control structure interaction problem that led to the RS control system firing thrusters in response to structural flex, the factors that led to insufficient preflight analysis of the thruster firings, and the ramifications the event had on the ISS. An immediate consequence included limiting which thrusters could be used for attitude control. This complicated the planning of on-orbit thruster events and necessitated the use of suboptimal thruster configurations that increased propellant usage and caused thruster lifetime usage concerns. In addition to the technical aspects of the problem, the team dynamics and communication shortcomings that led to such an event happening in an environment where extensive analysis is performed in support of human space flight will also be examined. Finally, the technical solution will be presented, which required a multidisciplinary effort between the U.S. and Russian control system engineers and loads and dynamics structural engineers to develop and implement an extensive modification in the RS software logic for ISS attitude control thruster firings.

Gomez, Susan F.↗

The impact of long-range dispersal on gene surfing

Range expansions lead to distinctive patterns of genetic variation in populations, even in the absence of selection. These patterns and their genetic consequences have been well studied for populations advancing through successive short-ranged migration events. However, most populations harbor some degree of long-range dispersal, experiencing rare yet consequential migration events over arbitrarily long distances. Although dispersal is known to strongly affect spatial genetic structure during range expansions, the resulting patterns and their impact on neutral diversity remain poorly understood. Here, we systematically study the consequences of long-range dispersal on patterns of neutral variation during range expansion in a class of dispersal models which spans the extremes of local (effectively short-ranged) and global (effectively well-mixed) migration. We find that sufficiently long-ranged dispersal leaves behind a mosaic of monoallelic patches, whose number and size are highly sensitive to the distribution of dispersal distances. We develop a coarse-grained model which connects statistical features of these spatial patterns to the evolution of neutral diversity during the range expansion. We show that growth mechanisms that appear qualitatively similar can engender vastly different outcomes for diversity: Depending on the tail of the dispersal distance distribution, diversity can be either preserved (i.e., many variants survive) or lost (i.e., one variant dominates) at long times. Our results highlight the impact of spatial and migratory structure on genetic variation during processes as varied as range expansions, species invasions, epidemics, and the spread of beneficial mutations in established populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Improved Green's Function for Ion Beam Transport

Ion beam transport theory allows testing of material transmission properties in the laboratory environment generated by particle accelerators. This is a necessary step in materials development and evaluation for space use. The approximations used in solving the Boltzmann transport equation for the space setting are often not sufficient for laboratory work and those issues are the main emphasis of the present work. In consequence, an analytic solution of the linear Boltzmann equation is pursued in the form of a Green's function allowing flexibility in application to a broad range of boundary value problems. It has been established that simple solutions can be found for the high charge and energy (HZE) by ignoring nuclear energy downshifts and dispersion. Such solutions were found to be supported by experimental evidence with HZE ion beams when multiple scattering was added. Lacking from the prior solutions were range and energy straggling and energy downshift with dispersion associated with nuclear events. Recently, we have found global solutions including these effects providing a broader class of HZE ion solutions.

Tweed, J.↗

An improved Green's function for ion beam transport

Ion beam transport theory allows testing of material transmission properties in the laboratory environment generated by particle accelerators. This is a necessary step in materials development and evaluation for space use. The approximations used in solving the Boltzmann transport equation for the space setting are often not sufficient for laboratory work and those issues are the main emphasis of the present work. In consequence, an analytic solution of the linear Boltzmann equation is pursued in the form of a Green's function allowing flexibility in application to a broad range of boundary value problems. It has been established that simple solutions can be found for high charge and energy (HZE) ions by ignoring nuclear energy downshifts and dispersion. Such solutions were found to be supported by experimental evidence with HZE ion beams when multiple scattering was added. Lacking from the prior solutions were range and energy straggling and energy downshift with dispersion associated with nuclear events. Recently, we have found global solutions including these effects providing a broader class of HZE ion solutions. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA Center LaRC↗

On the Location of the gamma-Ray Outburst Emission in the BL Lacertae Object AO 0235 + 164 Through Observations Across the Electromagnetic Spectrum

We present observations of a major outburst at centimeter, millimeter, optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths of the BL Lacertae object AO 0235+164. We analyze the timing of multi-waveband variations in the flux and linear polarization, as well as changes in Very Long Baseline Array images at A = 7 mm with approx.0.15 milliarcsec resolution. The association of the events at different wavebands is confirmed at high statistical significance by probability arguments and Monte Carlo simulations. A series of sharp peaks in optical linear polarization, as well as a pronounced maximum in the 7 mm polarization of a superluminal jet knot, indicate rapid fluctuations in the degree of ordering of the magnetic field. These results lead us to conclude that the outburst occurred in the jet both in the quasi-stationary "core" and in the superluminal knot, both parsecs downstream of the supermassive black hole. We interpret the outburst as a consequence of the propagation of a disturbance, elongated along the line of sight by light-travel time delays, that passes through a standing recollimation shock in the core and propagates down the jet to create the superluminal knot. The multi-wavelength light curves vary together on long timescales (months/ years), but the correspondence is poorer on shorter timescales. This, as well as the variability of the polarization and the dual location of the outburst, agrees with the expectations of a multi-zone emission model in which turbulence plays a major role in modulating the synchrotron and inverse Compton fluxes.

Agudo, Ivan↗

Understanding Structure in Line-Driven Stellar Winds Using Ultraviolet Spectropolarimetry in the Time Domain

The most massive stars are thought to lose a significant fraction of their mass in a steady wind during the main-sequence and blue supergiant phases. This in turn sets the stage for their further evolution and eventual supernova, and preconditions the surrounding medium for all following events, with consequences for ISM energization, chemical enrichment, and dust formation. Understanding these processes requires accurate observational constraints on the mass-loss rates of the most luminous stars, which can also be used to test theories of stellar wind driving. In the past, mass-loss rates have been characterized via collisional emission processes such as optical Hα and free-free radio emission, but these so-called “density squared” diagnostics require correction in the presence of widespread clumping. Recent observational and theoretical evidence points to the likelihood of a ubiquitously high level of such clumping in hot-star winds, but quantifying its effects requires a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics of radiatively driven winds and their stochastic instabilities. Furthermore, large-scale structures initiating in surface anisotropies and propagating throughout the wind can also affect wind driving and alter mass-loss diagnostics. Time series spectroscopy of high resonance-line opacity in the UV, capable of high resolution and high signal-to-noise, are required to better understand these complex dynamics, and more accurately determine mass-loss rates. The proposed Polstar mission (Scowen et al. 2022, this volume) provides the necessary resolution at the Sobolev (∼10 km s −1 ) or sound-speed (∼20 km s −1 ) scale, for over three dozen bright galactic massive stars with signal-to noise an order of magnitude above that of the celebrated MEGA campaign (Massa et al. 1995) of the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE), via continuous observations that track propagating structures through the winds in real time. Supporting geometric constraints are provided by the polarimetric capabilities present in all the datasets of such a mission.

Polstar – NASA MIDEX↗

Particle Acceleration by Cme-driven Shock Waves

In the largest solar energetic particle (SEP) events, acceleration occurs at shock waves driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Peak particle intensities are a strong function of CME speed, although the intensities, spectra, and angular distributions of particles escaping the shock are highly modified by scattering on Alfven waves produced by the streaming particles themselves. Element abundances vary in complex ways because ions with different values of Q/A resonate with different parts of the wave spectrum, which varies with space and time. Just recently, we have begun to model these systematic variations theoretically and to explore other consequences of proton-generated waves.

Reames, Donald V.↗

Dynamical and Physical Properties of a Post-Coronal Mass Ejection Current Sheet

In the eruptive process of the Kopp-Pneuman type, the closed magnetic field is stretched by the eruption so much that it is usually believed to be " open " to infinity. Formation of the current sheet in such a configuration makes it possible for the energy in the coronal magnetic field to quickly convert into thermal and kinetic energies and cause significant observational consequences, such as growing postflare/CME loop system in the corona, separating bright flare ribbons in the chromosphere, and fast ejections of the plasma and the magnetic flux. An eruption on 2002 January 8 provides us a good opportunity to look into these observational signatures of and place constraints on the theories of eruptions. The event started with the expansion of a magnetic arcade over an active region, developed into a coronal mass ejection (CME), and left some thin streamer-like structures with successively growing loop systems beneath them. The plasma outflow and the highly ionized states of the plasma inside these streamer-like structures, as well as the growing loops beneath them, lead us to conclude that these structures are associated with a magnetic reconnection site, namely, the current sheet, of this eruptive process. We combine the data from the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer, Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment, EUV Imaging Telescope, and Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, as well is from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory Mark IV K-coronameter, to investigate the morphological and dynamical properties of this event, as well as the physical properties of the current sheet. The velocity and acceleration of the CME reached up to 1800 km/s and 1 km/sq s, respectively. The acceleration is found to occur mainly at the lower corona (<2.76 Solar Radius). The post-CME loop systems showed behaviors of both postflare loops (upward motion with decreasing speed) and soft X-ray giant arches (upward motion with constant speed, or acceleration) according to the definition of Svestka. In the current sheet, the presence of highly ionized ions, such as Fe(+17) and Ca(+13), suggests temperature as high as (3-4) x 10(exp 6) K, and the plasma outflows have speeds ranging from 300 to 650 km/s. Absolute elemental abundances in the current sheet show a strong first ionization potential effect and have values similar to those found in the active region streamers. The magnetic field strength in the vicinity of the current sheet is found to be of the order of 1 G.

Ko, Yuan-Kuen↗

Coronal disturbances and their terrestrial effects /Tutorial Lecture/

An assessment is undertaken of recent approaches to the prediction of the interplanetary consequences of coronal disturbances, with attention to the relationships of shocks and energetic particles to coronal transients, of proton events to gamma-ray and microwave bursts, of geomagnetic storms to filament eruptions, and of solar wind increases to the flare site magnetic field direction. A discussion is given concerning the novel phenomenon of transient coronal holes, which appear astride the long decay enhancements of 2-50 A X-ray emission following H-alpha filament eruptions. These voids in the corona are similar to long-lived coronal holes, which are the sources of high speed solar wind streams. The transient coronal holes may also be associated with transient solar wind speed increases.

Rust, D. M.↗

Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales

Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. Here we evaluate changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The “extra” broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly “wetting” areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in “drying” areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

(abstract) Ulysses Orbit Determination at High Declinations

The trajectory of the Ulysses spacecraft carries it over the South polar region of the Sun in mid-1994, albeit at a great distance from the Sun itself. During this time the South Solar latitude of Ulysses' orbit reaches a maximum value of 80.2 degrees, and the geocentric declination reaches a magnitude of over 75 degrees. As a result, a number of unique and interesting events occur, not the least of which being that Ulysses never sets over the Canberra tracking station of the DSN for more than two months. A less obvious aspect of the Sun-spacecraft-Earth geometry during this time is the return of solar-induced nutation to the spin-stabilized Ulysses spacecraft, and the consequent use of active nutation control. Both of these events have significant implications for theory and practice of Ulysses' orbit determination during this period, which is the subject of the proposed paper.

orbit↗

Identification of Faults Susceptible to Induced Seismicity (Final Report)

Central to the work documented in this report is the capability of geocellular models to represent the geologic conceptual model updated with fault identification from machine learning and joint inversion modeling of microseismic data measured and recorded as a consequence of CO 2 injection at a field demonstration site: the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). This work required seven unique geocellular models with 100s of simulated variations to gain a very high degree of confidence in the identification of geologic features present that contributed to induced microseismicity at IBDP. All forward modeling: pressure modeling, stress modeling, and seismic modeling used the same geologic conceptual model and representations of that model at different scales. The pressure modeling and poroelastic modeling created “snapshots” of pore pressure and stress field changes at different times during CO 2 injection, in which microseismic events were clustered (in time). These pressure and stress snapshots, within the framework and architecture of the geologic conceptual model via the geocellular model, informed the single fault and fault network models to ascertain the likelihood of fault movement (seismic or aseismic). The outcomes of the pressure, stress, and fault/fault network (seismic) modeling confirmed that the faults in the geologic conceptual model in Task 2 were likely the source of microseismic events measured at IBDP and acted as conduits for pressure to be transmitted from the injection interval into the Precambrian crystalline basement rock. This closely coordinated and integrated unique modeling approach was conducted to prove the viability of our proposed workflow 1) to better resolve crystalline basement faults, 2) detect subseismic faults that could be activated by injection, 3) increase the certainty in fault detection and their susceptibility to release seismic energy, and 4) understand transmission of pressure vertically from the well to the underlying fractured crystalline basement. The proposed methodology was effective in guiding an iterative process of calibrating forward modeling results based on similar geocellular models while honoring the geologic conceptual model (i.e., characterization data and knowledge of regional geology); this led to higher level of certainty in the identification of fault/faults zones to control seismicity and transmission of pressure to the regions of recorded and located injection induced seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Apollo Sample 64455: Petrologic and Geochemical Characterization of a Glass-Coated Impact Melt Rock

Introduction and Background: Impact melts are a key product of the impact cratering process. Impact melts can turbulently entrain pre-existing rock fragments, and melt part of those entrained materials until thermal equilibrium is achieved [1–3]. Lunar impact melt rocks are valuable for determining the precise ages of basin-forming and cratering events, which anchor the cratering chronology and dynamics of the entire solar system [4, and references therein]. Additionally, entrained clasts can inform on the petrology and age of crustal materials that predate the melt-forming impact. In lithologies where no pristine samples are available, entrained materials may hold the record of endogenous lunar volatiles, provided we can untangle their impact histories as high temperature impact melt can heat the clasts and may alter their native volatiles or isotopic signatures [5–6]. Here, we characterize an Apollo 16 sample, 64455,70B, in an effort to understand the physical, microstructural, and geochemical consequences of impact melt contact metamorphism. We acquired optical light and x-ray maps of the sample, as well as quantitative analyses via electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). These tasks allow us to better understand the interaction between impact melts and entrained clasts, ultimately closing knowledge gaps in high-temperature impact processing on planetary surfaces. Sample Description: Sample 64455 is an oblong crystalline rock encased in glass to form an egg-like shape [7–8]. The impact melt coating has altered the outer (1 to 2 mm) rind of the crystalline rock and has preserved schlieren. The interior crystalline rock is likely a crystalline impact melt rock based on its bulk Ir content of 2.25 parts per billion [9]. The composition of the impact melt glass rind cannot be solely derived from the crystalline interior, the glassy rind is more aluminous and less magnesian [10]. Neither the crystalline interior nor the glassy rind were radiometrically age dated, although several studies investigated its cosmogenic isotopes and exposure ages, which reveal the sample was exposed on the lunar surface for ~1–2 Ma [11–13]. Preliminary Results: The interior crystalline rock consists primarily of plagioclase with interstitial pyroxene and olivine. Plagioclase grains are zoned and compositions range from An97–89, while pyroxene compositions generally range from En68Fs19Wo13 to En82Fs15Wo3 and olivine are Fo77 to Fo85. Minor phases include Fe-Ni metal, Ca-phosphates, a K- and Si-rich phase, sulfides, and Fe-phosphides. The glass rind contains approximately 44 wt.% SiO2, 25 wt.% Al2O3, 6 wt.% FeO, 8 wt.% MgO, and 14 wt.% CaO, with other oxides at <1 wt.% each, although the composition of the glass becomes more variable closest to the crystalline rock. The rind consists of rounded plagioclase, pyroxene, and olivine crystals with interstitial melt. In some locations, the rounded crystals are surrounded by closely-packed, blade-like crystals, <5 µm in width. These results indicate that the crystalline interior has partially melted where in contact with the high-temperature impact melt and while further investigation is needed, pyroxene may have preferentially melted relative to olivine and plagioclase. Future Work: We plan to conduct electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) mapping in order to determine crystallinity and crystal orientation. Next using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) data in conjunction with EBSD and EPMA information, we will model the diffusion of moderately volatile elements between the melt and remnant crystals.

A C Stadermann↗