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DOE OSTI2023

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO 3 -NO 2 ), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1996

Ocean observations with EOS/MODIS: Algorithm development and post launch studies

Several significant accomplishments were made during the present reporting period. We have completed our basic study of using the 1.38 micron MODIS band for removal of the effects of thin cirrus clouds and stratospheric aerosol. The results suggest that it should be possible to correct imagery for thin cirrus clouds with optical thicknesses as large as 0.5 to 1.0. We have also acquired reflectance data for oceanic whitecaps during a cruise on the RV Malcolm Baldrige in the Gulf of Mexico. The reflectance spectrum of whitecaps was found to be similar to that for breaking waves in the surf zone measured by Frouin, Schwindling and Deschamps. We installed a CIMEL sun photometer at Fort Jefferson on the Dry Tortugas off Key West in the Gulf of Mexico. The instrument has yielded a continuous stream of data since February. It shows that the aerosol optical thickness at 669 nm is often less than 0.1 in winter. This suggests that the Southern Gulf of Mexico will be an excellent winter site for vicarious calibration. In addition, we completed a study of the effect of vicarious calibration, i.e., the accuracy with which the radiance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) can be predicted from measurement of the sky radiance at the bottom of the atmosphere (BOA). The results suggest that the neglect of polarization in the aerosol optical property inversion algorithm and in the prediction code for the TOA radiances is the largest error associated with the radiative transfer process. Overall, the study showed that the accuracy of the TOA radiance prediction is now limited by the racliometric calibration error in the sky radiometer. Finally, considerable coccolith light scattering data were obtained in the Gulf of Maine with a flow-through instrument, along with data relating to calcite concentration and the rate of calcite production.

Gordan, Howard R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The 1997-98 El Nino Event and Related Wintertime Lightning Variations in the Southeastern United States

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for worldwide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast U.S. Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the warm episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode is notable for being the strongest event since 198283. With the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the detailed coverage of the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), such interannual changes in lightning activity can be examined with far greater detail than ever before. For the 1997-98 ENSO event the most significant year-to-year changes in lightning frequency worldwide occurred along the Gulf Coast and within the Gulf of Mexico basin during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Within a broad swath across the northern Gulf of Mexico basin there is a 100-150% increase in lightning days year-to-year (a peak of 33 days in the winter of 1997-98 vs. only 15 days or fewer in both the 1996-97 and 1998-99 winter). In addition, there is a nearly 200% increase in lightning hours (a peak of 138 hours in 1996-97 vs. 50 hours in both 1996-97 and 1998-99). The increase in lightning activity during ENSO occurs in association with a 100% increase in the number of synoptic scale cyclones that developed within or moved through the Gulf basin. The primary variables controlling these enhancements in thunderstorm activity are the position and strength of the jet stream.

Goodman, S. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

UT-GOM2-2 Prospectus: Science and Sample Distribution Plan

The University of Texas (UT), Genesis of Methane Hydrate in Coarse-Grained Systems: Northern Gulf of Mexico Slope Project (GOM2), will perform the UT-GOM2-2 drilling and coring expedition in the Terrebonne Basin, Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf. This is the scientific plan for the acquisition, storage, analysis, and distribution of core and other collected samples for UT-GOM2-2.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NASA NTRS2005

Hydrothermal Processes and Mobile Element Transport in Martian Impact Craters - Evidence from Terrestrial Analogue Craters

Hydrothermal alteration and chemical transport involving impact craters probably occurred on Mars throughout its history. Our studies of alteration products and mobile element transport in ejecta blanket and drill core samples from impact craters show that these processes may have contributed to the surface composition of Mars. Recent work on the Chicxulub Yaxcopoil-1 drill core has provided important information on the relative mobility of many elements that may be relevant to Mars. The Chicxulub impact structure in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico is one of the largest impact craters identified on the Earth, has a diameter of 180-200 km, and is associated with the mass extinctions at the K/T boundary. The Yax-1 hole was drilled in 2001 and 2002 on the Yaxcopoil hacienda near Merida on the Yucatan Peninsula. Yax-1 is located just outside of the transient cavity, which explains some of the unusual characteristics of the core stratigraphy. No typical impact melt sheet was encountered in the hole and most of the Yax-1 impactites are breccias. In particular, the impact melt and breccias are only 100 m thick which is surprising taking into account the considerably thicker breccia accumulations towards the center of the structure and farther outside the transient crater encountered by other drill holes.

Newsom, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA DEVELOP Students Rev Up Response to Gulf Oil Spill

After the April 20th explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico, the world witnessed one of the worst oil spill catastrophes in global history. In an effort to mitigate the disaster, the U.S. government moved quickly to establish a unified command for responding to the spill. Some of the command's most immediate needs were to track the movement of the surface oil slick, establish a baseline measurement of pre-oil coastal ecosystem conditions, and assess potential air quality and water hazards related to the spill. To help address these needs and assist the Federal response to the disaster, NASA deployed several of its airborne and satellite research sensors to collect an unprecedented amount of remotely-sensed data over the Gulf of Mexico region. Although some of these data were shared with the public via the media, much of the NASA data on the disaster was not well known to the Gulf Coast community. The need existed to inform the general public about these datasets and help improve understanding about how NASA's science research was contributing to oil spill response and recovery. With its extensive experience conducting community-oriented remote sensing projects and close ties to organizations around Gulf of Mexico, the NASA DEVELOP National Program stood in a unique position to meet this need.

Jones, Jason B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airborne Observations of Particle Density in High Ice Water Content (HWC) Cloud Systems

A series of airborne field campaigns has been conducted since 2014 to measure the microphysical properties of high ice-water content (HIWC) clouds in maritime mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and tropical storms. Two of these, the HIWC RADAR-2 campaign (2018) targeting cloud systems in the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean, and the HIWC-2022 campaign targeting cloud systems in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean, have been analyzed to investigate graupel encounters at typical jet aircraft cruise altitudes. In-situ cloud observations from these two campaigns confirmed results from the prior studies, indicating that high concentrations of small ice particles exist in areas of HIWC. However, in the 2022 campaign, 90% of the cloud regions with ice water content (IWC) above 2.0 g/m3 also contained significant amounts of graupel and/or frozen drops. Using a mass-size parameterization that accounts for both small ice and larger high-density particles, we show that the mass distributions in cloud regions above 2.0 g/m3 are often strongly bimodal, with the small particle mode containing roughly half of the collective cloud mass, and the graupel mode containing the other half. In contrast, HIWC cloud passes in a 2018 tropical cyclone contained less relative graupel mass than the MCS cloud systems of 2018 and 2022. We present two different methods of estimating particle mass for mixed populations of small-ice and graupel particles, one using a hybrid two-class approach, and another using a single-class approach that takes both particle size and shape metrics into account. Derived IWC using these methods are compared to bulk IWC measurements collected during the campaigns. We also show the relative occurrence of graupel at various IWC levels and discuss the potential application of these results in evaluating density-aware microphysical schemes in cloud and weather models.

Aircraft Icing↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Estes, M. G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Long-Term Time Series of Remote Sensing Observations for Development of Regulatory Water Quality Standards

Water quality standards in the U.S. consist of: designated uses (the services that a water body provides; e.g., drinking water, aquatic life, harvestable species, recreation) . criteria that define the environmental conditions that must be maintained to support the uses For estuaries and coastal waters in the Gulf of Mexico, there are no numeric (quantitative) criteria to protect designated uses from effects of nutrients. This is largely due to the absence of adequate data that would quantitatively link biological conditions to nutrient concentrations. The Gulf of Mexico Alliance, an organization fostering collaboration between the Gulf States and U.S. Federal agencies, has identified the development of the numeric nutrient criteria as a major step leading to reduction in MODIS Products Figure 6. Map of the Mobile Bay with a yellow patch indicating the Bon Secour Bay area selected in this study for averaging water clarity parameters retrieved from MODIS datasets. nutrient inputs to coastal ecosystems. Nutrient enrichment in estuaries and coastal waters can be quantified based on response variables that measure phytoplankton biomass and water clarity. Long-term, spatially and temporally resolved measurements of chlorophyll a concentration, total concentration of suspended solids, and water clarity are needed to establish reference conditions and to quantify stressor-response relationships.

Blonski, Slawomir↗

NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring Coastal Marshes for Persistent Saltwater Intrusion

Primary goal: Provide resource managers with remote sensing products that support ecosystem forecasting models requiring salinity and inundation data. Work supports the habitat-switching modules in the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) model, which provides scientific evaluation for restoration management (Visser et al., 2008). Ongoing work to validate flooding with radar (NWRC/USGS) and enhance persistence estimates through "fusion" of MODIS and Landsat time series (ROSES A.28 Gulf of Mexico). Additional work will also investigate relationship between saltwater dielectric constant and radar returns (Radarsat) (ROSES A.28 Gulf of Mexico).

Kalcic, Maria↗

NASA NTRS2008

Land-use and Land-cover Change from 1974 to 2008 around Mobile Bay

This project is a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot in which NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is working within a regional collaboration network of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance. NASA researchers, with support from the NASA SSC Applied Science Program Steering Committee, employed multi-temporal Landsat data to assess land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the coastal counties of Mobile and Baldwin, AL, between 1974 and 2008. A multi-decadal time-series, coastal LULC product unique to NASA SSC was produced. The geographic extent and nature of change was quantified for the open water, barren, upland herbaceous, non-woody wetland, upland forest, woody wetland, and urban landscapes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Coastal Development Data Center (NCDDC) will assist with the transition of the final product to the operational end user, which primarily is the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (MBNEP). We found substantial LULC change over the 34-year study period, much more than is evident when the change occurring in the last years. Between 1974 and 2008, the upland forest landscape lost almost 6% of the total acreage, while urban land cover increased by slightly more than 3%. With exception to open water, upland forest is the dominant landscape, accounting for about 25-30% of the total area.

Ellis, Jean↗

DOE OSTI2026

Implications of Sea Breeze Circulations on boundary layer aerosols in the southern coastal Texas region

The Sea Breeze Circulation (SBC) influences atmospheric processes at multiple scales in coastal regions. Understanding how SBCs impact the aerosol number budget and aerosol–cloud interaction processes is essential. This study investigates sea breeze–aerosol interactions (SAIs) during 46 summertime SBC events using data from the TRacking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) field campaign across urban (main) and rural (supplemental) coastal sites in southern Texas. Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations complement observations to explore spatio-temporal meteorological controls on boundary layer aerosols. During the summertime, Sea Breeze Fronts (SBF) penetrating inland transported cool, moist air over the land, introducing air masses with distinct properties compared to the preexisting continental air. These SAIs cause variability in number concentrations of up to a factor of two, with events typically lasting ∼ 5 h before returning to background conditions. SAI impact on aerosols varies with site proximity to water and the preceding sea breeze (SB) history, primarily affecting the marine-influenced accumulation mode. The main site, influenced by both Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, reflects a stronger marine influence. In contrast, a supplemental site, at a similar shoreline distance but exposed only to the Gulf of Mexico and typically upstream of the urban core, samples SB air that has traversed land and partially regained continental characteristics. Simulations show that the regional SAIs extend ∼ 50 km inland and reach up to the boundary layer height. SAIs further decrease cloud condensation nuclei relevant aerosol number concentrations in ∼ 20 % of events during SBF passage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Correlation of Tectonic Provinces of South America and the Caribbean Region with MAGSAT Anomalies

Intensities of MAGSAT scalar magnetic anomaly data correlate with the main tectonic provinces of South America and the Caribbean region. Magnetic anomalies of the continents generally have higher amplitudes than oceanic anomalies. This is particularly evident in Central America and in the shield areas of South America. The Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are underlain by prominent magnetic minima. Within these oceanic areas, linear magnetic highs correlate with topographic ridges which separate the Gulf of Mexico, the Colombian Basin, and the Venezuelan Basin. The boundaries of the Caribbean plate occur along magnetic gradients which are particularly sharp along the northern and western margins of the plate, but gradational along the southern margin where they merge with the Andean Cordillera. The anomalies along the western margin of the South American plate are also distinct and appear to be separate from those of the adjacent ocean basin. Eastern South America is characterized by magnetic anomalies which commonly extend into the Atlantic Ocean.

Lidiak, E. G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Factors Determining Commercially Optimal Development Strategies for CO 2 Storage With and Without CO 2 -EOR

This report is a draft white paper on the factors determining commercially optimal development strategies for CO 2 storage with and without CO 2 -EOR. The draft report provides a summary of accomplishments during the first budget period of the Southeast Offshore Storage Resource Assessment for the Gulf of Mexico (SECARB Offshore GOM) project. It also identifies “Next Steps” to be undertaken during Budget Period II. A final white paper will be prepared at the end of Budget Period II. The goal of this draft white paper is to expand the knowledge base required for commercially viable, secure, longterm, large-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) subsea storage in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM), both with and without enhanced hydrocarbon recovery. This effort supports the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) long-term objective of ensuring a comprehensive assessment of the potential for offshore CO 2 subsea storage in the GOM. The groundwork that has been completed in the draft white paper advanced by expanding the membership of the Southern States Energy Board’s (SSEB) existing Southeast Offshore Storage Resource Assessment (DE-FE0026082) GOM government-industry partnership during the next budget period. Further, the team plans to consult with U.S. federal and state agencies to develop recommendations to remove barriers and streamline the regulatory process to encourage subsea CO 2 storage with or without enhanced hydrocarbon recovery.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS1984

MAGSAT correlations with geoid anomalies

The MAGSAT data of the Gulf of Mexico were analyzed to define better the possible relation of the negative MAGSAT anomaly there to the negative residual geoid anomaly in the western Gulf of Mexico. The estimated magnetic crystal anomaly pattern has a magnetic low in the region of the residual geoid low, but the shape of the anomalies are different. Since the shape and location of the negative magnetic anomaly are variable depending upon the particular polynomial and curve orders used, the degree of correspondance between the residual geoid and MAGSAT lithosphere anomalies was not established definitively.

Bowin, C. O.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reestablishing larval connectivity in an estuarine landscape: the importance of shoreline and subtidal oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) in a comprehensive oyster restoration program

The decline of oyster reefs in estuaries has resulted from a combination of chronic and acute disturbances. The loss has resulted in decreased yield for the oyster fishery as well as a decline in ecological benefits that has led to increased efforts to restore oyster reefs. The need for scientific guidance in accomplishing these restoration goals has become even more pressing in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico in the wake of injury to oyster reefs resulting from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Restoration of both the shallow, marsh-fringing oyster aggregations and the deeper subtidal oyster reefs is necessary. Historically, fringing oysters have been overlooked in the oyster habitat landscape because of their limited commercial value. Here, we use a biophysical transport model to examine the transport and settlement of oyster larvae in known oyster reefs along the coast of the northcentral Gulf of Mexico. The modeling demonstrated that the majority of oyster larvae settle within the embayment (>98%) or sub-basin (>65%) of their origin. Additionally, the model demonstrated the importance of fringing oysters as a source of larvae to re-seed other fringing oysters along marsh edges as well as subtidal oyster reefs. We conclude that networks of reefs, including both fringing oyster habitat and subtidal oyster reefs within sub-basins, are necessary to provide resilience to the population at the sub-basin level. Finally, we conclude that fringing oyster habitat may serve as an archipelago-like network to enhance larval supply and connectivity for oysters throughout the mesosaline portions of estuaries.

ADCIRC↗

NASA NTRS1984

MAGSAT correlations with geoid anomalies

A digital data library of MAGSAT data is described and its applications and capabilities are reviewed. Polynomial trends were removed from each half-orbit in order to estimate and remove ring current effects from the data. The MAGSAT data in the Gulf of Mexico region was analyzed to define better the possible relation of the negative MAGSAT anomaly there to the negative residual geoid anomaly in the western Gulf of Mexico. Since the shape and location of the negative magnetic anomaly are variable depending upon the particular polynomial surface and curve orders used, no definitive conclusion as to the degree of correspondance between the residual geoid and MAGSAT lithosphere anomalies is offered.

Bowin, C. O.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Attitude Determination and Control Systems

In the year 1900, Galveston, Texas, was a bustling community of approximately 40,000 people. The former capital of the Republic of Texas remained a trade center for the state and was one of the largest cotton ports in the United States. On September 8 of that year, however, a powerful hurricane struck Galveston island, tearing the Weather Bureau wind gauge away as the winds exceeded 100 mph and bringing a storm surge that flooded the entire city. The worst natural disaster in United States history even today the hurricane caused the deaths of between 6000 and 8000 people. Critical in the events that led to such a terrible loss of life was the lack of precise knowledge of the strength of the storm before it hit. In 2008, Hurricane Ike, the third costliest hurricane ever to hit the United States coast, traveled through the Gulf of Mexico. Ike was gigantic, and the devastation in its path included the Turk and Caicos Islands, Haiti, and huge swaths of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Once again, Galveston, now a city of nearly 60,000, took the direct hit as Ike came ashore. Almost 200 people in the Caribbean and the United States lost their lives; a tragedy to be sure, but far less deadly than the 1900 storm. This time, people were prepared, having received excellent warning from the GOES satellite network. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites have been a continuous monitor of the world's weather since 1975, and they have since been joined by other Earth-observing satellites. This weather surveillance to which so many now owe their lives is possible in part because of the ability to point accurately and steadily at the Earth below. The importance of accurately pointing spacecraft to our daily lives is pervasive, yet somehow escapes the notice of most people. But the example of the lives saved from Hurricane Ike as compared to the 1900 storm is something no one should ignore. In this section, we will summarize the processes and technologies used in designing and operating spacecraft pointing (i.e. attitude) systems.

Starin, Scott R.↗