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The outer stellar mass of massive galaxies: a simple tracer of halo mass with scatter comparable to richness and reduced projection effects

ABSTRACT Using the weak gravitational lensing data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC survey), we study the potential of different stellar mass estimates in tracing halo mass. We consider galaxies with log10(M⋆/M⊙) > 11.5 at 0.2 < z < 0.5 with carefully measured light profiles, and clusters from the redMaPPer and CAMIRA richness-based algorithms. We devise a method (the ‘Top-N test’) to evaluate the scatter in the halo mass–observable relation for different tracers, and to inter-compare halo mass proxies in four number density bins using stacked galaxy–galaxy lensing profiles. This test reveals three key findings. Stellar masses based on CModel photometry and aperture luminosity within R <30 kpc are poor proxies of halo mass. In contrast, the stellar mass of the outer envelope is an excellent halo mass proxy. The stellar mass within R = [50, 100] kpc, M⋆, [50, 100], has performance comparable to the state-of-the-art richness-based cluster finders at log10Mvir ≳ 14.0 and could be a better halo mass tracer at lower halo masses. Finally, using N-body simulations, we find that the lensing profiles of massive haloes selected by M⋆, [50, 100] are consistent with the expectation for a sample without projection or mis-centring effects. Richness-selected clusters, on the other hand, display an excess at R ∼ 1 Mpc in their lensing profiles, which may suggest a more significant impact from selection biases. These results suggest that M⋆-based tracers have distinct advantages in identifying massive haloes, which could open up new avenues for cluster cosmology. The codes and data used in this work can be found here:

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Galaxy and Mass Assembly: A Comparison between Galaxy–Galaxy Lens Searches in KiDS/GAMA

Strong gravitational lenses are a rare and instructive type of astronomical object. Identification has long relied on serendipity, but different strategies—such as mixed spectroscopy of multiple galaxies along the line of sight, machine-learning algorithms, and citizen science—have been employed to identify these objects as new imaging surveys become available. We report on the comparison between spectroscopic, machine-learning, and citizen-science identification of galaxy–galaxy lens candidates from independently constructed lens catalogs in the common survey area of the equatorial fields of the Galaxy and Mass Assembly survey. In these, we have the opportunity to compare high completeness spectroscopic identifications against high-fidelity imaging from the Kilo Degree Survey used for both machine-learning and citizen-science lens searches. We find that the three methods—spectroscopy, machine learning, and citizen science—identify 47, 47, and 13 candidates, respectively, in the 180 square degrees surveyed. These identifications barely overlap, with only two identified by both citizen science and machine learning. We have traced this discrepancy to inherent differences in the selection functions of each of the three methods, either within their parent samples (i.e., citizen science focuses on low redshift) or inherent to the method (i.e., machine learning is limited by its training sample and prefers well-separated features, while spectroscopy requires sufficient flux from lensed features to lie within the fiber). These differences manifest as separate samples in estimated Einstein radius, lens stellar mass, and lens redshift. The combined sample implies a lens candidate sky density of ∼0.59 deg{sup −2} and can inform the construction of a training set spanning a wider mass–redshift space. A combined approach and refinement of automated searches would result in a more complete sample of galaxy–galaxy lens candidates for future surveys.

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The ellipticity parameterization for an NFW profile: An overlooked angular structure in strong lens modeling

Galaxy-scale gravitational lenses are often modeled with two-component mass profiles where one component represents the stellar mass and the second is a Navarro Frenk White (NFW) profile representing the dark matter. Outside of the spherical case, the NFW profile is costly to implement, and so it is approximated via two different methods; ellipticity can be introduced via the lensing potential (NFWp) or via the mass by approximating the NFW profile as a sum of analytical profiles (NFWm). While the NFWp method has been the default for lensing applications, it gives a different prescription of the azimuthal structure, which we show introduces ubiquitous gradients in ellipticity and boxiness in the mass distribution rather than having a constant elliptical shape. Because an unmodeled azimuthal structure has been shown to be able to bias lens model results, we explored the degree to which this azimuthal structure that was introduced can affect the model accuracy. We constructed input profiles using composite models using both the NFWp and NFWm methods and fit these mocks with a power-law elliptical mass distribution (PEMD) model with external shear. As a measure of the accuracy of the recovered lensing potential, we calculated the value of the Hubble parameter H 0 one would determine from the lensing fit. We found that the fits to the NFWp input return H 0 values that are systematically biased by about 3% lower than the NFWm counterparts. We explored whether such an effect is attributable to the mass sheet transformation (MST) by using an MST-independent quantity, ξ 2 . We show that, as expected, the NFWm mocks are degenerate with PEMD through an MST. For the NFWp, an additional bias was found beyond the MST due to the azimuthal structure exterior to the Einstein radius. We recommend modelers use an NFWm prescription in the future, such that the azimuthal structure can be introduced explicitly rather than implicitly.

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Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $Ω_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $Λ$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $Ω_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

Jarugula, Sreevani [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000253867↗

Detectability of Supermassive Dark Stars with the Roman Space Telescope

Abstract Supermassive dark stars (SMDS) are luminous stellar objects formed in the early Universe at redshift z ∼ 10–20, made primarily of hydrogen and helium, yet powered by dark matter. We examine the capabilities of the Roman Space Telescope (RST), and find it able to identify ∼10 6 M ⊙ SMDSs at redshifts up to z ≃ 14. With a gravitational lensing factor of μ ∼ 100, RST could identify SMDS as small as ∼10 4 M ⊙ at z ∼ 12 with ∼10 6 s exposure. Differentiating SMDSs from early galaxies containing zero metallicity stars at similar redshifts requires spectral, photometric, and morphological comparisons. With only RST, the differentiation of SMDS, particularly those formed via adiabatic contraction with M ≳ 10 5 M ⊙ and lensed by μ ≳ 100, is possible due to their distinct photometric signatures from the first galaxies. Those formed via dark matter capture can be differentiated only by image morphology: i.e., point object (SMDSs) versus extended object (sufficiently magnified galaxies). By additionally employing James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) spectroscopy, we can identify the He ii λ 1640 absorption line, a smoking gun for SMDS detection. Although RST does not cover the required wavelength band (for z emi ≳ 10), JWST does; hence, the two can be used in tandem to identify SMDS. The detection of SMDS would confirm a new type of star powered by dark matter and may shed light on the origins of the supermassive black holes powering bright quasars observed at z ≳ 6.

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The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Weighing Distant Clusters with the Most Ancient Light

We use gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) to measure the mass of the most distant blindly selected sample of galaxy clusters on which a lensing measurement has been performed to date. In CMB data from the the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the Planck satellite, we detect the stacked lensing effect from 677 near-infrared-selected galaxy clusters from the Massive and Distant Clusters of WISE Survey (MaDCoWS), which have a mean redshift of $\langle z\rangle =1.08$. There are currently no representative optical weak lensing measurements of clusters that match the distance and average mass of this sample. We detect the lensing signal with a significance of $4.2\sigma $. We model the signal with a halo model framework to find the mean mass of the population from which these clusters are drawn. Assuming that the clusters follow Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) density profiles, we infer a mean mass of $\langle {M}_{500c}\rangle =\left(1.7\pm 0.4\right)\times {10}^{14}\,{M}_{\odot }$. We consider systematic uncertainties from cluster redshift errors, centering errors, and the shape of the NFW profile. These are all smaller than 30% of our reported uncertainty. This work highlights the potential of CMB lensing to enable cosmological constraints from the abundance of distant clusters populating ever larger volumes of the observable universe, beyond the capabilities of optical weak lensing measurements.

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Noise from undetected sources in Dark Energy Survey images

ABSTRACT For ground-based optical imaging with current CCD technology, the Poisson fluctuations in source and sky background photon arrivals dominate the noise budget and are readily estimated. Another component of noise, however, is the signal from the undetected population of stars and galaxies. Using injection of artifical galaxies into images, we demonstrate that the measured variance of galaxy moments (used for weak gravitational lensing measurements) in Dark Energy Survey (DES) images is significantly in excess of the Poisson predictions, by up to 30 per cent, and that the background sky levels are overestimated by current software. By cross-correlating distinct images of ‘empty’ sky regions, we establish that there is a significant image noise contribution from undetected static sources (US), which, on average, are mildly resolved at DES resolution. Treating these US as a stationary noise source, we compute a correction to the moment covariance matrix expected from Poisson noise. The corrected covariance matrix matches the moment variances measured on the injected DES images to within 5 per cent. Thus, we have an empirical method to statistically account for US in weak lensing measurements, rather than requiring extremely deep sky simulations. We also find that local sky determinations can remove most of the bias in flux measurements, at a small penalty in additional, but quantifiable, noise.

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The dark matter halo masses of elliptical galaxies as a function of observationally robust quantities

Context. The assembly history of the stellar component of a massive elliptical galaxy is closely related to that of its dark matter halo. Measuring how the properties of galaxies correlate with their halo mass can therefore help to understand their evolution. Aims. We investigate how the dark matter halo mass of elliptical galaxies varies as a function of their properties, using weak gravitational lensing observations. To minimise the chances of biases, we focus on the following galaxy properties that can be determined robustly: the surface brightness profile and the colour. Methods. We selected 2409 central massive elliptical galaxies (log M*/M ⊙ ≳ 11.4) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectroscopic sample. We first measured their surface brightness profile and colours by fitting Sérsic models to photometric data from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). We fitted their halo mass distribution as a function of redshift, rest-frame r-band luminosity, half-light radius, and rest-frame u - g colour, using KiDS weak lensing measurements and a Bayesian hierarchical approach. For the sake of robustness with respect to assumptions on the large-radii behaviour of the surface brightness, we repeated the analysis replacing the total luminosity and half-light radius with the luminosity within a 10 kpc aperture, L r, 10 , and the light-weighted surface brightness slope, Γ 10 . Results. We did not detect any correlation between the halo mass and either the half-light radius or colour at fixed redshift and luminosity. Using the robust surface brightness parameterisation, we found that the halo mass correlates weakly with L r,10 and anti-correlates with Γ 10 . At fixed redshift, L r, 10 and Γ 10 , the difference in the average halo mass between galaxies at the 84th percentile and 16th percentile of the colour distribution is 0.00 ± 0.11 dex. Conclusion. Our results indicate that the average star formation efficiency of massive elliptical galaxies has little dependence on their final size or colour. This suggests that the origin of the diversity in the size and colour distribution of these objects lies with properties other than the halo mass.

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Accurate shear estimation with fourth-order moments

ABSTRACT As imaging surveys progress in exploring the large-scale structure of the Universe through the use of weak gravitational lensing, achieving sub-per cent accuracy in estimating shape distortions caused by lensing, or shear, is imperative for precision cosmology. In this paper, we extend the Fourier power function shapelets (FPFS) shear estimator using fourth-order shapelet moments and combine it with the original second-order shear estimator to reduce galaxy shape noise. We calibrate this novel shear estimator analytically to a sub-per cent level-accuracy using the AnaCal framework. This higher order shear estimator is tested with realistic image simulations, and after analytical correction for the detection/selection bias and noise bias, the multiplicative shear bias $|m|$ is below $3\times 10^{-3}$ (99.7 per cent confidence interval) for both isolated and blended galaxies. Once combined with the second-order FPFS shear estimator, the shape noise is reduced by $\sim 35~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ for isolated galaxies in simulations with Hyper Suprime-Cam and Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time observational conditions. However, for blended galaxies, the effective number density does not significantly improve with the combination of the two estimators. Based on these results, we recommend exploration of how this framework can further reduce the systematic uncertainties in shear due to point spread function leakage and modelling error, and potentially provide improved precision in shear inference in high-resolution space-based images.

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Geometry versus growth: Internal consistency of the flat ΛCDM model with KiDS-1000

Here, we carry out a multi-probe self-consistency test of the flat Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) model with the aim of exploring potential causes of the reported tensions between high- and low-redshift cosmological observations. We divide the model into two theory regimes determined by the smooth background (geometry) and the evolution of matter density fluctuations (growth), each governed by an independent set of ΛCDM cosmological parameters. This extended model is constrained by a combination of weak gravitational lensing measurements from the Kilo-Degree Survey, galaxy clustering signatures extracted from Sloan Digital Sky Survey campaigns and the Six-Degree Field Galaxy Survey, and the angular baryon acoustic scale and the primordial scalar fluctuation power spectrum measured in Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. For both the weak lensing data set individually and the combined probes, we find strong consistency between the geometry and growth parameters, as well as with the posterior of standard ΛCDM analysis. In the non-split analysis, for which one single set of parameters was used, tension in the amplitude of matter density fluctuations as measured by the parameter S 8 persists at around 3σ, with a 1.5% constraint of S 8 = 0.776$_{–0.008}^{+0.016}$ for the combined probes. We also observe a less significant preference (at least 2σ) for higher values of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 70.5$_{–1.5}^{+0.7}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 , as well as for lower values of the total matter density parameter Ω m = 0.289$_{–0.005}^{+0.007}$ compared to the full Planck analysis. Including the subset of the CMB information in the probe combination enhances these differences rather than alleviate them, which we link to the discrepancy between low and high multipoles in Planck data. Our geometry versus growth analysis does not yet yield clear signs regarding whether the origin of the discrepancies lies in ΛCDM structure growth or expansion history but holds promise as an insightful test for forthcoming, more powerful data.

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Mitigating Shear-dependent Object Detection Biases with Metacalibration

M ETACALIBRATION is a new technique for measuring weak gravitational lensing shear that is unbiased for isolated galaxy images. Here we test M ETACALIBRATION with overlapping, or "blended" galaxy images. Using standard M ETACALIBRATION , we find a few percent shear measurement bias for galaxy densities relevant for current surveys, and that this bias increases with increasing galaxy number density. We show that this bias is not due to blending itself, but rather to shear-dependent object detection. If object detection is shear-independent, no deblending of images is needed, in principle. We demonstrate that detection biases are accurately removed when including object detection in the M ETACALIBRATION process, a technique we call M ETADETECTION . This process involves applying an artificial shear to images of small regions of sky and performing detection on the sheared images, as well as measurements that are used to calculate a shear response. We demonstrate that the method can accurately recover weak shear signals even in highly blended scenes. In the M ETACALIBRATION process, the space between objects is sheared coherently, which does not perfectly match the real universe in which some, but not all, galaxy images are sheared coherently. We find that even for the worst case scenario, in which the space between objects is completely unsheared, the resulting shear bias is at most a few tenths of a percent for future surveys. We discuss additional technical challenges that must be met in order to implement M ETADETECTION for real surveys.

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Delensing the CMB with the cosmic infrared background: the impact of foregrounds

ABSTRACT The most promising avenue for detecting primordial gravitational waves from cosmic inflation is through measurements of degree-scale cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization. This approach must face the challenge posed by gravitational lensing of the CMB, which obscures the signal of interest. Fortunately, the lensing effects can be partially removed by combining high-resolution E-mode measurements with an estimate of the projected matter distribution. For near-future experiments, the best estimate of the latter will arise from co-adding internal reconstructions (derived from the CMB itself) with external tracers such as the cosmic infrared background (CIB). In this work, we characterize how foregrounds impact the delensing procedure when CIB intensity, I, is used as the matter tracer. We find that higher point functions of the CIB and Galactic dust such as 〈BEI〉c and 〈EIEI〉c can, in principle, bias the power spectrum of delensed B-modes. To quantify these, we first estimate the dust residuals in currently available CIB maps and upcoming, foreground-cleaned Simons Observatory CMB data. Then, using non-Gaussian simulations of Galactic dust – extrapolated to the relevant frequencies, assuming the spectral index of polarized dust emission to be fixed at the value determined by Planck – we show that the bias to any primordial signal is small compared to statistical errors for ground-based experiments, but might be significant for space-based experiments probing very large angular scales. However, mitigation techniques based on multifrequency cleaning appear to be very effective. We also show, by means of an analytical model, that the bias arising from the higher point functions of the CIB itself ought to be negligible.

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The DES view of the Eridanus supervoid and the CMB cold spot

ABSTRACT The Cold Spot is a puzzling large-scale feature in the Cosmic Microwave Background temperature maps and its origin has been subject to active debate. As an important foreground structure at low redshift, the Eridanus supervoid was recently detected, but it was subsequently determined that, assuming the standard ΛCDM model, only about 10–20 per cent of the observed temperature depression can be accounted for via its Integrated Sachs–Wolfe imprint. However, R ≳ 100 h−1Mpc supervoids elsewhere in the sky have shown ISW imprints AISW ≈ 5.2 ± 1.6 times stronger than expected from ΛCDM (AISW = 1), which warrants further inspection. Using the Year-3 redMaGiC catalogue of luminous red galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey, here we confirm the detection of the Eridanus supervoid as a significant underdensity in the Cold Spot’s direction at z < 0.2. We also show, with S/N ≳ 5 significance, that the Eridanus supervoid appears as the most prominent large-scale underdensity in the dark matter mass maps that we reconstructed from DES Year-3 gravitational lensing data. While we report no significant anomalies, an interesting aspect is that the amplitude of the lensing signal from the Eridanus supervoid at the Cold Spot centre is about 30 per cent lower than expected from similar peaks found in N-body simulations based on the standard ΛCDM model with parameters Ωm = 0.279 and σ8 = 0.82. Overall, our results confirm the causal relation between these individually rare structures in the cosmic web and in the CMB, motivating more detailed future surveys in the Cold Spot region.

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Chromatic effects on the PSF and shear measurement for the Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Wide Area Survey

Weak gravitational lensing (WL) is a key cosmological probe that requires precise measurement of galaxy images to infer shape distortions, or shear, and constrain cosmology. Accurate estimation of the point spread function (PSF) is crucial for shear measurement, but the wavelength dependence of the PSF introduces chromatic biases that can systematically impact shear inference. We focus on biases arising from spectral energy distribution (SED) differences between stars, used for PSF modelling, and galaxies, used for shear measurement. We investigate these effects in Roman’s four design reference mission WL bands (Y106, J129, H158, F184) and wide filter (W146). Using Roman-like image simulations, we quantify the induced shear biases and compare them to requirements on those biases. Multiplicative biases over all galaxies hover around ~0.2 per cent in the WL bands and 2 per cent in the wide filter, exceeding the mission requirement of |m| < 0.032 per cent and relaxed requirement of |m| < 0.1 per cent⁠. In individual redshift bins, biases can reach 0.4–0.9 per cent for the WL bands and 3–6 per cent for the wide filter. Additive biases remain acceptable in the WL bands but exceed systematic limits in the wide filter. We develop and test PSF-level corrections, showing that a first-order correction reduces biases within survey requirements for the WL bands; however, higher-order terms are necessary for the wide filter. Our results highlight the necessity of chromatic corrections for precision WL with Roman and provide a framework for mitigating these biases. Finally, we compare analytical colour-based corrections to self-organizing maps and find that both methods effectively reduce biases.

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The SPTpol Extended Cluster Survey

We describe the observations and resultant galaxy cluster catalog from the 2770 deg2 SPTpol Extended Cluster Survey (SPT-ECS). Clusters are identified via the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) effect and confirmed with a combination of archival and targeted follow-up data, making particular use of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). With incomplete follow-up we have confirmed as clusters 244 of 266 candidates at a detection significance ξ ≥ 5 and an additional 204 systems at 4 < ξ < 5. The confirmed sample has a median mass of ${M}_{500c}\sim 4.4\times {10}^{14}\,{M}_{\odot }\,{h}_{70}^{-1}$ and a median redshift of z = 0.49, and we have identified 44 strong gravitational lenses in the sample thus far. Radio data are used to characterize contamination to the SZ signal; the median contamination for confirmed clusters is predicted to be ~1% of the SZ signal at the ξ > 4 threshold, and <4% of clusters have a predicted contamination >10% of their measured SZ flux. We associate SZ-selected clusters, from both SPT-ECS and the SPT-SZ survey, with clusters from the DES redMaPPer sample, and we find an offset distribution between the SZ center and central galaxy in general agreement with previous work, though with a larger fraction of clusters with significant offsets. Adopting a fixed Planck-like cosmology, we measure the optical richness–SZ mass ($\lambda -M$) relation and find it to be 28% shallower than that from a weak-lensing analysis of the DES data—a difference significant at the 4σ level—with the relations intersecting at λ = 60. The SPT-ECS cluster sample will be particularly useful for studying the evolution of massive clusters and, in combination with DES lensing observations and the SPT-SZ cluster sample, will be an important component of future cosmological analyses.

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High-significance detection of correlation between the unresolved gamma-ray background and the large-scale cosmic structure

Our understanding of the γ-ray sky has improved dramatically in the past decade, however, the unresolved γ-ray background (UGRB) still has a potential wealth of information about the faintest γ-ray sources pervading the Universe. Statistical cross-correlations with tracers of cosmic structure can indirectly identify the populations that most characterize the γ-ray background. In this study, we analyze the angular correlation between the γ-ray background and the matter distribution in the Universe as traced by gravitational lensing, leveraging more than a decade of observations from the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) and 3 years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We detect a correlation at signal-to-noise ratio of 8.9. Most of the statistical significance comes from large scales, demonstrating, for the first time, that a substantial portion of the UGRB aligns with the mass clustering of the Universe as traced by weak lensing. Blazars provide a plausible explanation for this signal, especially if those contributing to the correlation reside in halos of large mass (∼ 10 14 M ⊙ ) and account for approximately 30–40% of the UGRB above 10 GeV. Additionally, we observe a preference for a curved γ-ray energy spectrum, with a log-parabolic shape being favored over a power-law. We also discuss the possibility of modifications to the blazar model and the inclusion of additional γ-ray sources, such as star-forming galaxies, misalinged active galactic nuclei, or particle dark matter.

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Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Redshift calibration of the MagLim++ lens sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3 x 2pt cosmology analysis. The 3 x 2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection ( B alrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O(10 8 ) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the n(z) uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. Here, this analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

dark energy↗

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. Here, we present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

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