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A detailed conceptual design has been developed for a mission and microspacecraft that can provide information needed to answer key questions about the physics of space weather and also both provide and validate a system for early warning of hazardous space weather.
Using the total radiation belt electron content calculated from Van Allen Probe phase space density, the time-dependent and global response of the outer radiation belt during storms is statistically studied. Using phase space density reduces the impacts of adiabatic changes in the main phase, allowing a separation of adiabatic and nonadiabatic effects and revealing a clear modality and repeatable sequence of events in storm time radiation belt electron dynamics. This sequence exhibits an important first adiabatic invariant (μ)-dependent behavior in the seed (150 MeV/G), relativistic (1,000 MeV/G), and ultrarelativistic (4,000 MeV/G) populations. The outer radiation belt statistically shows an initial phase dominated by loss followed by a second phase of rapid acceleration, while the seed population shows little loss and immediate enhancement. Lastly, the time sequence of the transition to the acceleration is also strongly μ dependent and occurs at low μ first, appearing to be repeatable from storm to storm.
The IMAGE EUV imager observed a plasmaspheric density trough in association with a geomagnetically active period on 24 May 2000. At EUV wavelengths, this density trough appeared as an Archimedes spiral extending from Earth's shadow to approximately 1800 MLT. We present an analysis of this density trough using simulated EUV images. Observational EUV images are subjected to edge analysis to establish the plasmapause L-shell and the location of the density trough in terms of L-shell, MLT extent, and radial width. The plasmaspheric density distribution is modeled using both static and dynamic models for the plasmasphere. The background plasmasphere is then numerically simulated using the 4-parameter plasmaspheric density model contained within the Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) [Gallagher et al., 20001 and the Dynamic Global Core Plasma Model (DGCPM). Simulated EUV images of the model plasmasphere are produced once an artificial density depletion, matching the observed MLT extent and width, has been removed. Once the azimuthal extent and width of the trough have been simulated, the depth of the artificial density depletion is iteratively adjusted to produce simulated EUV images that approximate observation. The results of this analysis and discussion of possible origins for this density trough will be presented.
The large thermospheric infrared radiance enhancements observed from the TIMED/SABER experiment during recent solar storms provide an exciting opportunity to study the influence of solar-geomagnetic disturbances on the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. In particular, nighttime enhancements of 4.3 um emission, due to vibrational excitation and radiative emission by NO+, provide an excellent proxy to study and analyze the response of the ionospheric E-region to auroral electron dosing and storm-time enhancements to the E-region electron density. In this paper we give a status report of on-going work on model and data analysis methodologies of deriving NO+ 4.3 um volume emission rates, a proxy for the storm-time E-region response, and the approach for deriving an empirical storm-time correction to International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region NO+ and electron densities.
In situ measurements taken over midlatitudes by the Dynamics Explorer 2 spacecraft during a geomagnetic substorm show that a direct correlation exists between depletions in the O/N2 density ratio and in the topside electron density, Ne. On the basis of this correlation, it is concluded that, for the storm of September 1982, losses of free electrons via oxygen and nitrogen chemistry near the F2 peak dominate over wind-induced plasma transport in determining the observed stormtime variations of topside Ne at higher latitudes. However, the appearance of an enhancement in topside Ne along 20-deg invariant latitude indicates that an equatorial wind did develop and was effective in increasing gas temperatures and in generating topside Ne enhancement at lower latitudes.
The IMAGE EUV imager observed a plasmaspheric density, trough in association with a geomagnetically active period on 24 May 2000. In EUV, this density, trough appears as an Archimedes spiral extending from Earth's shadow to approximately 1900 MLT. We present an analysis of this density trough using simulated EUV images, Observational EUV images are subjected to edge analysis to establish the plasmapause L-shell and the location of the density trough in terms of L-shell, MLT extent, and radial width. The plasmaspheric density distribution is modeled using both static and dynamic models for the plasmasphere. The background plasmasphere is then numerically simulated using the 4-parameter plasmaspheric density model contained within the Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) and the Dynamic Global Core Plasma Model (DGCPM). Simulated EUV images of the model plasmasphere are produced once an artificial density, depletion, matching the observed MLT extent and width, has been removed. Once the azimuthal extent and width of the trough have been simulated, the depth of the artificial density depletion is iteratively adjusted to produce simulated EUV images that approximate observation. The results of this analysis and discussion of possible origins for this density trough will be presented.
A circulation model of neutral thermosphere-ionosphere coupling is used to interpret in situ spacecraft measurements taken during a topside midlatitude ionospheric storm. The data are measurements of electron density taken along the circular polar orbit of Ariel 4 at 550 km during the geomagnetically disturbed period June 17-18, 1972. It is inferred that collisional momentum transfer from the disturbed neutral thermosphere to the ionosphere was the dominant midday process generating the positive F-layer storm phase in the summer hemisphere. In the winter hemisphere the positive storm phase drifted poleward in the apparent response to magnetospheric E x B drifts. A summer F-layer positive phase developed at the sudden commencement and again during the geomagnetic main phase; a winter F-layer positive phase developed only during the geomagnetic main phase. The observed seasonal differences in both the onsets and the magnitudes of the positive phases are attributed to the interhemispheric asymmetry in thermospheric dynamics.
Interplanetary field and plasma data from earth-orbiting spacecraft during the period November 1973 to February 1974 were employed in analyzing the causes of recurrent geomagnetic activity. Two long sequences of geomagnetic activity and two corresponding corotating interplanetary streams figured in the data. The geomagnetic activity is discussed in terms of the electric field produced by the ordered mesoscale pattern of the stream itself, and by random smaller-scale fluctuations in the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
The high speed solar wind streams observed near Earth are generally associated with the solar features, such as solar flares and coronal holes. Past studies of these streams from the two sources have revealed distinctly different effects on cosmic ray intensity, whereas the effect is similar for geomagnetic disturbances. Moreover, the effect of the magnitude of the high speed streams (V) and its rate of increase (dv/dt) has also been a subject of investigation to understand their relative contribution in producing geomagnetic disturbances. From the analysis of some of the fast streams presented here, it is difficult to predict, which one of the two (V, dv/dt) is more effective in producing geo-magnetic disturbances. Further, in most of the cases, no substantial decrease in cosmic ray intensity is observed.
A new thermospheric wind measurement technique is reported which is based on a Satellite Electrostatic Triaxial Accelerometer (SETA) system capable of accurately measuring accelerations in the satellite's in-track, cross-track and radial directions. Data obtained during two time periods are presented. The first data set describes cross-track winds measured between 170 and 210 km during a 5-day period (25 to 29 March 1979) of mostly high geomagnetic activity. In the second data set, cross-track winds and neutral densities from SETA and exospheric temperatures from the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar are examined during an isolated magnetic substorm occurring on 21 March 1979. A polar thermospheric wind circulation consisting of a two cell horizontal convection pattern is reflected in both sets of cross-track acceleration measurements. The density response is highly asymmetric with respect to its day/night behavior. Latitude structures of the density response at successive times following the substorm peak suggest the equatorward propagation of a disturbance with a phase speed between 300 and 600 m/s. A deep depression in the density at high latitudes (less than 70 deg) is evident in conjunction with this phenomenon. The more efficient propagation of the disturbance to lower latitudes during the night is probably due to the midnight surge effect.
Observation that the high-latitude trapping boundary for 20-keV electrons and 100-keV protons became very thin in the early morning hours during two intense substorms. The gradients were too steep to be maintained by drifting particles, so they must have been produced locally over the nightside of the earth. The flux gradient is seen to move at speeds in excess of 100 km/sec. Plasma appears to move away from the tail and around the earth at these high speeds during the sudden expansion phases of the substorms. The rapid plasma motion requires the presence of fluctuating electric fields that sometimes exceed 50 to 100 mV/m at a geomagnetic latitude of 30 deg on the L = 5 field line. These observations fit best into a model that contains two field-aligned sheet currents. The high electric fields that accompany the rapid plasma flow can produce nonadiabatic acceleration of 0.1- to 1-MeV electrons and protons.
Geoelectromagnetic disturbances (GMDs) are an important consequence of space weather that can directly impact many types of terrestrial infrastructure. In this paper, we analyze 30 years of SuperMAG magnetometer data from the range of magnetic latitudes 20°≤λ≤75° to derive characteristic latitudinal profiles for median GMD amplitudes. Based on this data, we obtain a parameterization of these latitudinal profiles of different types of GMDs, providing an analytical fit with Dst-dependent parameters. Finally, we also obtain probabilistic estimates for the magnitudes of “100 year” GMDs, finding that $\dot{_B}$ = 6.9 (3.60–12.9) nT/s should be expected at 45°≤λ< 50°, exceeding the 5 nT/s threshold for dangerous inductive heating.
Various physical processes are known to cause acceleration, loss, and transport of energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts, but their quantitative roles in different time and space need further investigation. During the largest storm over the past decade (17 March 2015), relativistic electrons experienced fairly rapid acceleration up to ~7 MeV within 2 days after an initial substantial dropout, as observed by Van Allen Probes. In the present paper, we evaluate the relative roles of various physical processes during the recovery phase of this large storm using a 3-D diffusion simulation. By quantitatively comparing the observed and simulated electron evolution, we found that chorus plays a critical role in accelerating electrons up to several MeV near the developing peak location and produces characteristic flat-top pitch angle distributions. By only including radial diffusion, the simulation underestimates the observed electron acceleration, while radial diffusion plays an important role in redistributing electrons and potentially accelerates them to even higher energies. Moreover, plasmaspheric hiss is found to provide efficient pitch angle scattering losses for hundreds of keV electrons, while its scattering effect on > 1 MeV electrons is relatively slow. Although an additional loss process is required to fully explain the overestimated electron fluxes at multi-MeV, the combined physical processes of radial diffusion and pitch angle and energy diffusion by chorus and hiss reproduce the observed electron dynamics remarkably well, suggesting that quasi-linear diffusion theory is reasonable to evaluate radiation belt electron dynamics during this big storm.
Electrons with energies in the keV range play an important role in the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere. Therefore, accurately modeling electron fluxes in this region is of great interest. However, these calculations constitute a challenging task since the lifetimes of electrons that are available have limitations. In this study, we simulate electron fluxes in the energy range of 20 eV-100 keV to assess how well different electron loss models can account for the observed electron fluxes during the GEM Challenge Event of the 2013 St. Patrick's Day storm. Three models (Case 1, Case 2, and Case 3) of electron lifetimes due to wave-induced pitch angle scattering are used to compute the fluxes, which are compared with measurements from the Van Allen Probes. The three models consider electron losses due to interactions with whistler mode hiss waves inside the plasmasphere and with whistler mode chorus waves outside the plasmasphere. The Case 1 (historical) model produces excessive loss at low L shells before and after the storm, suggesting that it overestimates losses due to hiss during quiet times. During the storm main phase and early recovery all three models show good agreement with the observations, indicating that losses due to chorus during disturbed times are in general well accounted for by the models. Furthermore, the more recent Case 2 and Case 3 models show overall better agreement with the observed fluxes.
Results and images from the SHIELDS space weather prediction framework are provided.
Abstract not provided.
Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B{sub z}. Predicting the strength and duration of B{sub z} inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B{sub z} problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B{sub z}, and resulting disturbance storm time ( Dst ) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX , resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind . Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s{sup −1}; observed: 488 ± 30 km s{sup −1}), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line.