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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1972

A study of comprehension and use of weather information by various agricultural groups in Wisconsin

An attempt was made to determine whether current techniques are adequate for communicating improved weather forecasts to users. Primary concern was for agricultural users. Efforts were made to learn the preferred source of weather forecasts and the frequency of use. Attempts were also made to measure knowledge of specific terms having to do with weather and comprehension of terms less often used but critical to varying intensities of weather.

Smith, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Technology forecasting for space communication

A study was conducted to determine techniques for application to space communication. The subjects considered are as follows: (1) optical communication systems, (2) laser communications for data acquisition networks, (3) spacecraft data rate requirements, (4) telemetry, command, and data handling, (5) spacecraft tracking and data network antenna and preamplifier cost tradeoff study, and (6) spacecraft communication terminal evaluation.

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NASA NTRS1974

Users guide for information retrieval using APL

A Programming Language (APL) is a precise, concise, and powerful computer programming language. Several features make APL useful to managers and other potential computer users. APL is interactive; therefore, the user can communicate with his program or data base in near real-time. This, coupled with the fact that APL has excellent debugging features, reduces program checkout time to minutes or hours rather than days or months. Of particular importance is the fact that APL can be utilized as a management science tool using such techniques as operations research, statistical analysis, and forecasting. The gap between the scientist and the manager could be narrowed by showing how APL can be used to do what the scientists and the manager each need to do, retrieve information. Sometimes, the information needs to be retrieved rapidly. In this case APL is ideally suited for this challenge.

Shapiro, A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Research Reports: 1988 NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program

The basic objectives are to further the professional knowledge of qualified engineering and science faculty members; to stimulate an exchange of ideas between participants and NASA: to enrich and refresh the research and teaching activities of the participants' institutions; and to contribute to the research objectives of the NASA centers. Topics addressed include: cryogenics; thunderstorm simulation; computer techniques; computer assisted instruction; system analysis weather forecasting; rocket engine design; crystal growth; control systems design; turbine pumps for the Space Shuttle Main engine; electron mobility; heat transfer predictions; rotor dynamics; mathematical models; computational fluid dynamics; and structural analysis.

Freeman, L. Michael↗
NASA NTRS1993

Modeling and data assimilation for Mars Observer

The Mars Observer mission will return a substantial set of meteorological data for the atmosphere of Mars, principally in the form of thermal infrared soundings from the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer (PMIRR). The dataset will enable global studies of a range of dynamical and physical phenomena in the martian atmosphere. The solar orbital configuration of Mars Observer, however, means that the coverage of the martian atmosphere and surface by remote sounding instruments will be asynchronous. This leads to difficulties of interpretation when studying synoptic-scale phenomena with timescales of a few days. In an attempt to overcome such problems we propose to use data assimilation techniques, as currently employed for operational weather forecasting on the Earth, in conjunction with a Martian General Circulation Model (MGCM) that is under development at Oxford and Reading Universities. An overview of the model and assimilation scheme will be given, with reference to problems encountered so far in applying such methods to remote-sensing observations of the martian atmosphere.

Lewis, Stephen R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Survey: National Meteorological Center

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) is comprised of three operational divisions (Development, Automation, and Forecast) and an Administrative Division. The Development Division develops and implements mathematical models for forecasting the weather. The Automation Division provides the software and processing services to accommodate the models used in daily forecasts. The Forecasting Division applies a combination of numerical and manual techniques to produce analyses and prognoses up to 120 hr into the future. This guidance material is combined with severe storm information from the National Hurricane Center and the National Severe Storms Forecasting Center to develop locally tailored forecasts by the Weather Service Forecast Offices and, in turn, by the local Weather Service Offices. A very general flow of this information is shown. A more detailed illustration of data flow into, within, and from the NMC is given. The interrelations are depicted between the various meteorological organizations and activities.

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NASA NTRS1985

Weather forecasting expert system study

Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

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NASA NTRS1981

Remote sensing techniques for conservation and management of natural vegetation ecosystems

The importance of using remote sensing techniques, in the visible and near-infrared ranges, for mapping, inventory, conservation and management of natural ecosystems is discussed. Some examples realized in Brazil or other countries are given to evaluate the products from orbital platform (MSS and RBV imagery of LANDSAT) and aerial level (photography) for ecosystems study. The maximum quantitative and qualitative information which can be obtained from each sensor, at different level, are discussed. Based on the developed experiments it is concluded that the remote sensing technique is a useful tool in mapping vegetation units, estimating biomass, forecasting and evaluation of fire damage, disease detection, deforestation mapping and change detection in land-use. In addition, remote sensing techniques can be used in controling implantation and planning natural/artificial regeneration.

Parada, N. D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Seismic Forecasting of Solar Activity

We have developed and improved helioseismic imaging techniques of the far-side of the Sun as part of a synoptic monitor of solar activity. In collaboration with the MIDI team at Stanford University we are routinely applying our analysis to images within 24 hours of their acquisition by SOHO. For the first time, real-time seismic maps of large active regions on the Sun's far surface are publicly available. The synoptic images show examples of active regions persisting for one or more solar rotations, as well as those initially detected forming on the solar far side. Until recently, imaging the far surface of the Sun has been essentially blind to active regions more than about 50 degrees from the antipode of disk center. In a paper recently accepted for publication, we have demonstrated how acoustic travel-time perturbations may be mapped over the entire hemisphere of the Sun facing away from the Earth, including the polar regions. In addition to offering significant improvements to ongoing space weather forecasting efforts, the procedure offers the possibility of local seismic monitoring of both the temporal and spatial variations in the acoustic properties of the Sun over the entire far surface.

Braun, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting Lightning at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a set of statistical forecast equations that provide a probability of lightning occurrence on Kennedy Space Center (KSC) I Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for the day during the warm season (May September). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at CCAFS in Florida include a probability of lightning occurrence in their daily 24-hour and weekly planning forecasts, which are briefed at 1100 UTC (0700 EDT). This information is used for general scheduling of operations at CCAFS and KSC. Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group also make thunderstorm forecasts for the KSC/CCAFS area during Shuttle flight operations. Much of the current lightning probability forecast at both groups is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The objective tool currently available is the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI, Neumann 1971), developed specifically for the KSCICCAFS area over 30 years ago. However, recent studies have shown that 1-day persistence provides a better forecast than the NPTI, indicating that the NPTI needed to be upgraded or replaced. Because they require a tool that provides a reliable estimate of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast, the 45 WS forecasters requested that the AMU develop a new lightning probability forecast tool using recent data and more sophisticated techniques now possible through more computing power than that available over 30 years ago. The equation development incorporated results from two research projects that investigated causes of lightning occurrence near KSCICCAFS and over the Florida peninsula. One proved that logistic regression outperformed the linear regression method used in NPTI, even when the same predictors were used. The other study found relationships between large scale flow regimes and spatial lightning distributions over Florida. Lightning, probabilities based on these flow regimes were used as candidate predictors in the equation development. Fifteen years (1 989-2003) of warm season data were used to develop the forecast equations. The data sources included a local network of cloud-to-ground lightning sensors called the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS), 1200 UTC Florida synoptic soundings, and the 1000 UTC CCAFS sounding. Data from CGLSS were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The 1200 UTC soundings were used to calculate the synoptic-scale flow regimes and the 1000 UTC soundings were used to calculate local stability parameters, which were used as candidate predictors of lightning occurrence. Five logistic regression forecast equations were created through careful selection and elimination of the candidate predictors. The resulting equations contain five to six predictors each. Results from four performance tests indicated that the equations showed an increase in skill over several standard forecasting methods, good reliability, an ability to distinguish between non-lightning and lightning days, and good accuracy measures and skill scores. Given the overall good performance the 45 WS requested that the equations be transitioned to operations and added to the current set of tools used to determine the daily lightning probability of occurrence.

Lambert, Winfred↗
NASA NTRS1989

Short-term forecasting of thunderstorms at Kennedy Space Center, based on the surface wind field

Techniques incorporating wind convergence that can be used for the short-term prediction of thunderstorm development are described. With these techniques, the convergence signal is sensed by the wind network array 15 to 90 min before actual storm development. Particular attention is given to the convergence cell technique (which has been applied at the Kennedy Space Center) where each convective region is analyzed independently. It is noted that, while the monitoring of areal and cellular convergence can be used to help locate the seeds of developing thunderstorms and pinpoint the lightning threat areas, this forecasting aid cannot be used in isolation.

Watson, Andrew I.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Next generation initiation techniques

Four-dimensional data assimilation strategies can generally be classified as either current or next generation, depending upon whether they are used operationally or not. Current-generation data-assimilation techniques are those that are presently used routinely in operational-forecasting or research applications. They can be classified into the following categories: intermittent assimilation, Newtonian relaxation, and physical initialization. It should be noted that these techniques are the subject of continued research, and their improvement will parallel the development of next generation techniques described by the other speakers. Next generation assimilation techniques are those that are under development but are not yet used operationally. Most of these procedures are derived from control theory or variational methods and primarily represent continuous assimilation approaches, in which the data and model dynamics are 'fitted' to each other in an optimal way. Another 'next generation' category is the initialization of convective-scale models. Intermittent assimilation systems use an objective analysis to combine all observations within a time window that is centered on the analysis time. Continuous first-generation assimilation systems are usually based on the Newtonian-relaxation or 'nudging' techniques. Physical initialization procedures generally involve the use of standard or nonstandard data to force some physical process in the model during an assimilation period. Under the topic of next-generation assimilation techniques, variational approaches are currently being actively developed. Variational approaches seek to minimize a cost or penalty function which measures a model's fit to observations, background fields and other imposed constraints. Alternatively, the Kalman filter technique, which is also under investigation as a data assimilation procedure for numerical weather prediction, can yield acceptable initial conditions for mesoscale models. The third kind of next-generation technique involves strategies to initialize convective scale (non-hydrostatic) models.

Warner, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2018

Introduction to Data Assimilation

Atmospheric data assimilation is a class of techniques used for producing descriptions of fields of air temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, etc. on a spatial grid or in terms of a finite functional representation. These are then used to initialize numerical weather forecasts or to analyze the atmosphere for other purposes. The techniques combine past, present, and even future observations in an approximate statistically optimal way. Various types of statistical or physically-based models and their corresponding adjoints are employed to relate diverse fields in both time and space and to relate what is observed to what is being analyzed. Computationally, the problem is very demanding and onstraining on the techniques that can be employed on a routine basis.

Atmospheric data assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2019

GMAO Seasonal Forecast Ensemble Exploration

GMAO Sub/Seasonal prediction system (S2S) has recently been upgraded. A complete set (1981-2016) of 9-months hindcasts for the previous and current versions (S2S-1.0 and S2S-2.1 respectively) allows for the evaluation of the forecast skill and a study of various characteristics of the ensemble forecasts in particular. We compared the intra-seasonal, interannual and intra-ensemble SST variability of the two systems against the observed. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we analyzed the consistency of the forecasts ensembles by studying rank histograms and comparing the ensemble spread with the standard error of the estimate.The S2S-2.1 ensemble appears to be more consistent with observations in Niño1+2 region compared to S2S-1.0, while in the central equatorial Pacific ocean this measure is comparably good for both systems. The S2S-1.0 system tends to be under dispersive, while the new system is under dispersive only at very short lead times, but tends to be over dispersive at long leads and for forecasts verifying in spring in Niño 3.4 region.Overall, the new system has greater skill in predicting ENSO. The evaluation techniques tested here will be applied for testing of the next generation sub/seasonal forecast system under development.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS1979

KAZIA: A computer system for solar-terrestrial data processing and objective prediction

A computer system for solar terrestrial data processing is described. The data base consists mainly of information contained in Ursigrams exchanged between the IUWDS Regional Warning Centers. The system structure and its functions are presented. Solar flare forecasting is described, as one of the prediction techniques incorporated in the system.

Stasiewicz, K.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Weather radar research at the USA's storm laboratory

Radar research that is directed toward improving storm forecasts and hazard warnings and studying lightning is discussed. The two moderately sensitive Doppler weather radars in central Oklahoma, with their wide dynamic range, have demonstrated the feasibility of mapping wind fields in all weather conditions from the clear skies of quiescent air and disturbed prestorm air near the earth's surface to the optically opaque interior of severe and sometimes tornadic thunderstorms. Observations and analyses of Doppler weather radar data demonstrate that improved warning of severe storm phenomena and improved short-term forecast of storms may be available when Doppler techniques are well integrated into the national network of weather radars. When used in combination with other sensors, it provides an opportunity to learn more about the complex interrelations between the wind, water, and electricity in storms.

Doviak, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Nitric acid forecast experiments

Results of two three-dimensional forecasts of the time evolution of the distribution of HNO3 in the stratosphere are reported. The first is for the February 1979 stratospheric warming, and the second is for a period in March, 1979 when the relative importance of photochemistry and dynamics is thought to be rapidly changing. The zonal mean results of the model calculations are in general qualitative agreement with the LIMS HNO3 observations. However, the calculated three-dimensional fields show significant differences from the observations. The results provide insight into what must be done to form a successful constituent forecast model and provide information on the modeling technique and the self-consistency of the observed dynamical and constituent fields.

Rood, Richard B.↗