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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

Data-model integration plays a critical role in assessing and improving our capacity to predict ecosystem dynamics. Similarly, the ability to attach quantitative statements of uncertainty around model forecasts is crucial for model assessment and interpretation and for setting field research priorities. Bayesian methods provide a rigorous data assimilation framework for these applications, especially for problems with multiple data constraints. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques underlying most Bayesian calibration can be prohibitive for computationally demanding models and large datasets. We employ an alternative method, Bayesian model emulation of sufficient statistics, that can approximate the full joint posterior density, is more amenable to parallelization, and provides an estimate of parameter sensitivity. Analysis involved informative priors constructed from a meta-analysis of the primary literature and specification of both model and data uncertainties, and it introduced novel approaches to autocorrelation corrections on multiple data streams and emulating the sufficient statistics surface. We report the integration of this method within an ecological workflow management software, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application and validation with two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2. In a test against a synthetic dataset, the emulator was able to retrieve the true parameter values. A comparison of the emulator approach to standard brute-force MCMC involving multiple data constraints showed that the emulator method was able to constrain the faster and simpler SIPNET model's parameters with comparable performance to the brute-force approach but reduced computation time by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The emulator was then applied to calibration of the ED2 model, whose complexity precludes standard (brute-force) Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Both models are constrained after assimilation of the observational data with the emulator method, reducing the uncertainty around their predictions. Performance metrics showed increased agreement between model predictions and data. Our study furthers efforts toward reducing model uncertainties, showing that the emulator method makes it possible to efficiently calibrate complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bi-Level Arbitrage Potential Evaluation for Grid-Scale Energy Storage Considering Wind Power and LMP Smoothing Effect

Our paper deals with extended-term energy storage (ES) arbitrage problems to maximize the annual revenue in deregulated power systems with high penetration wind power. The conventional ES arbitrage model takes the locational marginal prices (LMP) as an input and is unable to account for the impacts of ES operations on system LMPs. This paper proposes a bi-level ES arbitrage model, where the upper level maximizes the ES arbitrage revenue and the lower level simulates the market clearing process considering wind power and ES. The bi-level model is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and then recast into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) using strong duality theory. Wind power fluctuations are characterized by the GARCH forecast model and the forecast error is modeled by forecast-bin based Beta distributions. Case studies are performed on a modified PJM 5-bus system and an IEEE 118-bus system with a weekly time horizon over an annual term to show the validity of the proposed bi-level model. The results from the conventional model and the bi-level model are compared under different ES power and energy ratings, and also various load and wind penetration levels.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Novel stochastic methods to predict short-term solar radiation and photovoltaic power

Solar forecasting has evolved towards becoming a key component of economical realization of high penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper presents two novel stochastic forecasting models for solar PV by utilizing historical measurement data to outline a short-term high-resolution probabilistic behavior of solar. First, an uncertain basis functions method is used to forecast both solar radiation and PV power. Three possible distributions are considered for the uncertain basis functions - Gaussian, Laplace, and Uniform distributions. Second, stochastic state-space models are applied to characterize the behaviors of solar radiation and PV power output. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed to recursively estimate the system parameters and state variables. This enables the system to accurately forecast small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The introduced forecasting models are suitable for real-time tertiary dispatch controllers and optimal power controllers. The PV forecasting models are tested using solar radiation and PV power measurement data collected from a 13.5 kW PV panel installed on the rooftop of our laboratory. Furthermore, the results are compared with standard time series forecasting mechanisms and show a substantial improvement in the forecasting accuracy of the total energy produced.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Bridging the Transition from Mesoscale to Microscale Turbulence in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

With a focus towards developing multiscale capabilities in numerical weather prediction models, the specific problem of the transition from the mesoscale to the microscale is investigated. For that purpose, idealized one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) experiments were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting model framework. It is demonstrated that switching from one-dimensional turbulent diffusion in the mesoscale model to three-dimensional LES mixing does not necessarily result in an instantaneous development of turbulence in the LES domain. However, very large fetches are needed for the natural transition to turbulence to occur. The computational burden imposed by these long fetches necessitates the development of methods to accelerate the generation of turbulence on a nested LES domain forced by a smooth mesoscale inflow. To that end, four new methods based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field along the LES inflow boundaries are developed, and investigated under convective conditions. Each method accelerated the development of turbulence within the LES domain, with two of the methods resulting in a rapid generation of production and inertial range energy content associated to microscales that is consistent with non-nested simulations using periodic boundary conditions. The cell perturbation approach, the simplest and most efficient of the best performing methods, was investigated further under neutral and stable conditions. Successful results were obtained in all the regimes, where satisfactory agreement of mean velocity, variances and turbulent fluxes, as well as velocity and temperature spectra, was achieved with reference non-nested simulations. In contrast, the non-perturbed LES solution exhibited important energy deficits associated to a delayed establishment of fully-developed turbulence. The cell perturbation method has negligible computational cost, significantly accelerates the generation of realistic turbulence, and requires minimal parameter tuning, with the necessary information relatable to mean inflow conditions provided by the mesoscale solution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Global and regional modeling of clouds and aerosols in the marine boundary layer during VOCALS: the VOCA intercomparison

A diverse collection of models are used to simulate the marine boundary layer in the southeast Pacific region during the period of the October–November 2008 VOCALS REx (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study Regional Experiment) field campaign. Regional models simulate the period continuously in boundary-forced free-running mode, while global forecast models and GCMs (general circulation models) are run in forecast mode. The models are compared to extensive observations along a line at 20° S extending westward from the South American coast. Most of the models simulate cloud and aerosol characteristics and gradients across the region that are recognizably similar to observations, despite the complex interaction of processes involved in the problem, many of which are parameterized or poorly resolved. Some models simulate the regional low cloud cover well, though many models underestimate MBL (marine boundary layer) depth near the coast. Most models qualitatively simulate the observed offshore gradients of SO 2 , sulfate aerosol, CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentration in the MBL as well as differences in concentration between the MBL and the free troposphere. Most models also qualitatively capture the decrease in cloud droplet number away from the coast. However, there are large quantitative intermodel differences in both means and gradients of these quantities. Many models are able to represent episodic offshore increases in cloud droplet number and aerosol concentrations associated with periods of offshore flow. Most models underestimate CCN (at 0.1% supersaturation) in the MBL and free troposphere. The GCMs also have difficulty simulating coastal gradients in CCN and cloud droplet number concentration near the coast. The overall performance of the models demonstrates their potential utility in simulating aerosol–cloud interactions in the MBL, though quantitative estimation of aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol indirect effects of MBL clouds with these models remains uncertain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Verification and Validation Strategy Within the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2)

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2), in the complex terrain of the Columbia Gorge, focuses on a set of weather phenomena that poses particular challenges for wind and wind power forecasting. It further aims to understand and improve the skill of weather forecast models, particularly the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), in complex terrain. The project also includes an extensive field campaign in the Columbia River Gorge, during which data from many different instruments were collected. WFIP2 is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Scientists from four U.S. national laboratories, NOAA, Vaisala, and universities contribute to the project with wide and varied interests and skill sets. Therefore, coordinated verification & validation (V&V) efforts across these members allows for the development of a clear picture of model improvements and scientific findings within WFIP2. The WFIP2 V&V team is tasked with providing tools, methods, and guidance to enable repeatable, metrics-based assessment of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and associated modeling suites for analysis and forecasting of mesoscale weather phenomena that are important for wind energy in the Columbia River Gorge and other parts of the continental United States. This report summarizes what has been worked on and accomplished within the duration of the WFIP2 project, 4 years, by the V&V team.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecast of All-Sky Solar Radiation Using Enhanced WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents enhancements of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar radiation. Our approach builds ensemble WRF-Solar runs by introducing stochastic perturbations of variables that produce the largest uncertainties in predicting surface irradiance and clouds. The key variables are identified using tangent linear sensitivity analysis of six physics packages responsible for all-sky irradiance variability. An optimal strategy to stochastically perturb the selected variables is developed and applied to WRF-Solar to generate ensemble members for day-ahead solar prediction. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to validate the ensemble forecast at arbitrary locations on the model grid. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed technique can potentially produce WRF-Solar ensembles providing reliable information of solar prediction uncertainty. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to improve ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts with WRF-Solar.

all-sky↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of biomass burning aerosols on radiation, clouds, and precipitation over the Amazon: relative importance of aerosol–cloud and aerosol–radiation interactions

Biomass burning (BB) aerosols can influence regional and global climate through interactions with radiation, clouds, and precipitation. Here, we investigate the impact of BB aerosols on the energy balance and hydrological cycle over the Amazon Basin during the dry season. We performed simulations with a fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), for a range of different BB emission scenarios to explore and characterize nonlinear effects and individual contributions from aerosol–radiation interactions (ARIs) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs). The ARIs of BB aerosols tend to suppress low-level liquid clouds by local warming and increased evaporation and to facilitate the formation of high-level ice clouds by enhancing updrafts and condensation at high altitudes. In contrast, the ACIs of BB aerosol particles tend to enhance the formation and lifetime of low-level liquid clouds by providing more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and to suppress the formation of high-level ice clouds by reducing updrafts and condensable water vapor at high altitudes (>8 km). For scenarios representing the lower and upper limits of BB emission estimates for recent years (2002–2016), we obtained total regional BB aerosol radiative forcings of –0.2 and 1.5 W m –2 , respectively, showing that the influence of BB aerosols on the regional energy balance can range from modest cooling to strong warming. We find that ACIs dominate at low BB emission rates and low aerosol optical depth (AOD), leading to an increased cloud liquid water path (LWP) and negative radiative forcing, whereas ARIs dominate at high BB emission rates and high AOD, leading to a reduction of LWP and positive radiative forcing. In all scenarios, BB aerosols led to a decrease in the frequency of occurrence and rate of precipitation, caused primarily by ACI effects at low aerosol loading and by ARI effects at high aerosol loading. The dependence of precipitation reduction on BB aerosol loading is greater in a strong convective regime than under weakly convective conditions. Overall, our results show that ACIs tend to saturate at high aerosol loading, whereas the strength of ARIs continues to increase and plays a more important role in highly polluted episodes and regions. This should hold not only for BB aerosols over the Amazon, but also for other light-absorbing aerosols such as fossil fuel combustion aerosols in industrialized and densely populated areas. The importance of ARIs at high aerosol loading highlights the need for accurately characterizing aerosol optical properties in the investigation of aerosol effects on clouds, precipitation, and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Flood Predictability in Taiwan through Coupled Atmospheric–Hydrological and High-Performance Hydrodynamic Models

Effective flood simulation capabilities can tremendously support early warning and disaster prevention. To examine the applicability of a fully physics-based and high-performance flood simulation and forecasting modeling framework for a flood-prone region in Taiwan, we conduct a numerical experiment that couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, WRF-Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), and the Two-Dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) to perform integrated rainfall, streamflow, and flood simulations. Furthermore, we first use the coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro (WWH) to predict rainfall and streamflow and then drive TRITON with the predicted streamflow hydrographs to simulate flood depth and inundation area. With the refined spatial resolution and parameterization, this framework can better predict rainfall with reasonable spatial patterns. Although WWH could overestimate the amount of rainfall in some areas, the uncertain rainfall–streamflow predictions produce reasonable flood maps able to pinpoint regions at risk of flooding. In terms of model efficiency, the graphics processing unit–based computation can yield a speed-up factor as high as ∼13 compared to the central processing unit–based computation, promoting the efficacy of the coupled modeling framework in practical real-time flood forecasting.

Coupled models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Multidimensional Spatial-Temporal Hydropower Operational Flexibilities by Modeling and Optimizing Water-Constrained Cascading Hydroelectric Systems

Because of unique characteristics such as clean and cost-competitive electricity as well as fast-ramping and storage abilities, the power industry continues to evolve its operation strategies for cascading hydroelectric (CHE) systems for providing enhanced values to the grid, especially under the deeper renewable resource integration. However, existing operation practices of CHEs predate the integration of renewables, which could prohibit the effective utilization of their inherent flexibilities in delivering maximum financial benefits and providing valuable grid services to the power system and electricity market operations. Indeed, modeling and optimizing these resource-limited while flexible CHE assets with uncertainties and imperfect information across multiple spatial-temporal dimensions present significant challenges. To facilitate CHE facility operators in effectively coordinating water usage and hydropower plant operations across multiple timescales, this project aims to fill the existing gaps by developing a suite of accurate water inflow (WI) forecast models as well as enhanced CHE modeling and optimization approaches with proper consideration of their unique characteristics, which would help explore their multidimensional spatial-temporal operational flexibility potentials. The developed approaches could better align reservoir operation strategies with variability and uncertainty of future water availability. They can also promote more effective utilization of multidimensional spatial-temporal hydropower operational flexibility potentials by designing long-term evacuation plans of reservoirs and short-term operation of CHEs, along with their coordination with other types of renewables. The project leverages various resources to facilitate the research and development activities, including actual characteristics data of CHE systems and a library of current and future cases of Portland General Electric (PGE). These realistic data enable the project team to study how to maximize the value of CHEs under current and future portfolios and evaluate opportunities to improve operation practices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States

Influenza infects an estimated 9–35 million individuals each year in the United States and is a contributing cause for between 12,000 and 56,000 deaths annually. Seasonal outbreaks of influenza are common in temperate regions of the world, with highest incidence typically occurring in colder and drier months of the year. Real-time forecasts of influenza transmission can inform public health response to outbreaks. We present the results of a multiinstitution collaborative effort to standardize the collection and evaluation of forecasting models for influenza in the United States for the 2010/2011 through 2016/2017 influenza seasons. For these seven seasons, we assembled weekly real-time forecasts of seven targets of public health interest from 22 different models. We compared forecast accuracy of each model relative to a historical baseline seasonal average. Across all regions of the United States, over half of the models showed consistently better performance than the historical baseline when forecasting incidence of influenza-like illness 1 wk, 2 wk, and 3 wk ahead of available data and when forecasting the timing and magnitude of the seasonal peak. In some regions, delays in data reporting were strongly and negatively associated with forecast accuracy. More timely reporting and an improved overall accessibility to novel and traditional data sources are needed to improve forecasting accuracy and its integration with real-time public health decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A general spatial-temporal framework for short-term building temperature forecasting at arbitrary locations with crowdsourcing weather data

Weather forecasting has been a critical component to predict and control building energy consumption for better building energy management. Without accessibility to other data sources, the onsite observed temperatures or the airport temperatures are used in forecast models. In this paper, we present a novel approach by utilizing the crowdsourcing weather data from neighboring personal weather stations (PWS) to improve the weather forecast accuracy around buildings using a general spatial-temporal modeling framework. The final forecast is based on the ensemble of local forecasts for the target location using neighboring PWSs. Our approach is distinguished from existing literature in various aspects. First, we leverage the crowdsourcing weather data from PWS in addition to public data sources. In this way, the data is at much finer time resolution (e.g., at 5-minute frequency) and spatial resolution (e.g., arbitrary location vs grid). Second, our proposed model incorporates spatial-temporal correlation information of weather variables between the target building and a set of neighboring PWSs so that underlying correlations can be effectively captured to improve forecasting performance. Here, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework by comparing to the benchmark models on temperature forecasting for a building located at an arbitrary location at San Antonio, Texas, USA. In general, the proposed model framework equipped with machine learning technique such as Random Forest can improve forecasting by 50% compares with persistent model and has 90% chance to outperform airport forecast in short-term forecasting. In a real-time setting, the proposed model framework can provide more accurate temperature forecasting results compared with using airport temperature forecast for most forecast horizon. Moreover, we analyze the sensitivity of model parameters to gain insights on how crowdsourcing data from the neighboring personal weather stations impacts forecasting performance. Finally, we implement our model in other cities such as Syracuse and Chicago to test the model's performance in different landforms and climate types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Collaborative Research: Understanding air‐sea feedbacks to the MJO through process evaluation of observations and E3SM experiments (Final Technical Report)

This project explored the role of tropical oceans in regulating cloud populations within the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)–a large-scale tropical weather disturbance that influences extreme weather events across the globe by affecting the position of the jet stream and patterns of moisture transport. Our project sought to 1) document ocean feedback strength to the MJO in climate models, 2) understand how air-sea interactions affect the intensity, organization, and propagation of MJO convection, 3) utilize existing observations to identify sources of model bias for tropical air-sea interactions, and 4) better understand the effects of slow and fast ocean variability on MJO cloudiness. We found that transfers of heat and moisture across the air-sea interface (i.e., surface fluxes) in most climate models are over-supportive in maintaining MJO convection and under-supportive in propagating MJO convection. This can lead to misrepresentations in the frequency of extreme weather events across the globe through erroneous MJO feedbacks to jet stream position and moisture transport. Furthermore, using observations collected by ocean moorings across the tropical oceans, we showed that most models greatly overestimate surface evaporation in the subtropics, and that this bias is likely one contributor to a pervasive bias among climate models in their ability to simulate the mean state of rainfall over the tropical oceans (i.e., the “double ITCZ bias”). Replacing the default surface flux algorithm in two climate models with a state-of-the-art surface flux algorithm modestly reduced the double ITCZ bias in those models. Our work produced two model diagnostics packages that are now publicly available through DOE and NOAA model diagnostics archives. The first, the Analysis of Scales of Precipitation (ASoP) diagnoses scales of precipitation variability across space and time, with temporal resolution as fine as the model integration timestep. The second, the air-sea flux diagnostic diagnoses model surface fluxes and allows direct comparison of model fluxes to observations without having to recompute fluxes using model output and a state-of-the-art flux algorithm. These diagnostics, which were developed using climate models, can be readily applied to regional and global forecast model output to improve forecasts for the benefit of society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗