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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

A systematic way for the cost reduction of density fitting methods

We present a simple approach for the reduction of the size of auxiliary basis sets used in methods exploiting the density fitting (resolution of identity) approximation for electron repulsion integrals. Starting out of the singular value decomposition of three-center two-electron integrals, new auxiliary functions are constructed as linear combinations of the original fitting functions. The new functions, which we term natural auxiliary functions (NAFs), are analogous to the natural orbitals widely used for the cost reduction of correlation methods. The use of the NAF basis enables the systematic truncation of the fitting basis, and thereby potentially the reduction of the computational expenses of the methods, though the scaling with the system size is not altered. The performance of the new approach has been tested for several quantum chemical methods. It is demonstrated that the most pronounced gain in computational efficiency can be expected for iterative models which scale quadratically with the size of the fitting basis set, such as the direct random phase approximation. The approach also has the promise of accelerating local correlation methods, for which the processing of three-center Coulomb integrals is a bottleneck.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2016

Hybrid PSO-ASVR-based method for data fitting in the calibration of infrared radiometer

The present paper describes a hybrid particle swarm optimization-adaptive support vector regression (PSO-ASVR)-based method for data fitting in the calibration of infrared radiometer. The proposed hybrid PSO-ASVR-based method is based on PSO in combination with Adaptive Processing and Support Vector Regression (SVR). The optimization technique involves setting parameters in the ASVR fitting procedure, which significantly improves the fitting accuracy. However, its use in the calibration of infrared radiometer has not yet been widely explored. Bearing this in mind, the PSO-ASVR-based method, which is based on the statistical learning theory, is successfully used here to get the relationship between the radiation of a standard source and the response of an infrared radiometer. Main advantages of this method are the flexible adjustment mechanism in data processing and the optimization mechanism in a kernel parameter setting of SVR. Numerical examples and applications to the calibration of infrared radiometer are performed to verify the performance of PSO-ASVR-based method compared to conventional data fitting methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

A generalized forward fit for neutron detectors with energy-dependent response functions

To date, most analysis of neutron time-of-flight data from inertial confinement fusion experiments has focused on the relatively small range of energies corresponding to the primary neutrons from DD and DT fusion, and have therefore employed instrument response functions (IRF’s) corresponding to monoenergetic 2.45-MeV or 14.03-MeV neutrons. For analysis of time-of-flight signals corresponding to broader ranges of neutron energies, accurate treatment of the data requires the use of an energy-dependent IRF. Here, this work describes interpolation of the IRF for neutrons of arbitrary energy, construction of an energy-dependent IRF, and application of this IRF in a forward fit via matrix multiplication. As an example of the application of this method, an analysis of synthetic data relevant to TT fusion experiments at the Omega Laser Facility is discussed. This example is used to illustrate the differences between a forward fit that uses an energy-dependent IRF and a forward fit that uses a monoenergetic IRF. Use of the energy-dependent IRF is shown to result in accurate inference of the fit parameters of interest.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2013

THE POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE OF BINARY EVOLUTION IN ULTRAVIOLET-OPTICAL SPECTRAL FITTING OF EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES

Most galaxies possibly contain some binaries, and more than half of Galactic hot subdwarf stars, which are thought to be a possible origin of the UV-upturn of old stellar populations, are found in binaries. However, the effect of binary evolution has not been taken into account in most works on the spectral fitting of galaxies. This paper studies the role of binary evolution in the spectral fitting of early-type galaxies, via a stellar population synthesis model including both single and binary star populations. Spectra from ultraviolet to optical bands are fitted to determine a few galaxy parameters. The results show that the inclusion of binaries in stellar population models may lead to obvious change in the determination of some parameters of early-type galaxies and therefore it is potentially important for spectral studies. In particular, the ages of young components of composite stellar populations become much older when using binary star population models instead of single star population models. This implies that binary star population models will measure significantly different star formation histories for early-type galaxies compared to single star population models. In addition, stellar population models with binary interactions on average measure larger dust extinctions than single star population models. This suggests that when binary star population models are used, negative extinctions are possibly no longer necessary in the spectral fitting of galaxies (see previous works, e.g., Cid Fernandes et al. for comparison). Furthermore, it is shown that optical spectra have strong constraints on stellar age while UV spectra have strong constraints on binary fraction. Finally, our results suggest that binary star population models can provide new insight into the stellar properties of globular clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Fitting and forecasting coupled dark energy in the non-linear regime

We consider cosmological models in which dark matter feels a fifth force mediated by the dark energy scalar field, also known as coupled dark energy. Our interest resides in estimating forecasts for future surveys like Euclid when we take into account non-linear effects, relying on new fitting functions that reproduce the non-linear matter power spectrum obtained from N-body simulations. We obtain fitting functions for models in which the dark matter-dark energy coupling is constant. Their validity is demonstrated for all available simulations in the redshift range 0z=–1.6 and wave modes below 0k=1 h/Mpc. These fitting formulas can be used to test the predictions of the model in the non-linear regime without the need for additional computing-intensive N-body simulations. We then use these fitting functions to perform forecasts on the constraining power that future galaxy-redshift surveys like Euclid will have on the coupling parameter, using the Fisher matrix method for galaxy clustering (GC) and weak lensing (WL). We find that by using information in the non-linear power spectrum, and combining the GC and WL probes, we can constrain the dark matter-dark energy coupling constant squared, β{sup 2}, with precision smaller than 4% and all other cosmological parameters better than 1%, which is a considerable improvement of more than an order of magnitude compared to corresponding linear power spectrum forecasts with the same survey specifications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

DNA Breaks-Mediated Fitness Cost Reveals RNase HI as a New Target for Selectively Eliminating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria

Abstract Antibiotic resistance often generates defects in bacterial growth called fitness cost. Understanding the causes of this cost is of paramount importance, as it is one of the main determinants of the prevalence of resistances upon reducing antibiotics use. Here we show that the fitness costs of antibiotic resistance mutations that affect transcription and translation in Escherichia coli strongly correlate with DNA breaks, which are generated via transcription–translation uncoupling, increased formation of RNA–DNA hybrids (R-loops), and elevated replication–transcription conflicts. We also demonstrated that the mechanisms generating DNA breaks are repeatedly targeted by compensatory evolution, and that DNA breaks and the cost of resistance can be increased by targeting the RNase HI, which specifically degrades R-loops. We further show that the DNA damage and thus the fitness cost caused by lack of RNase HI function drive resistant clones to extinction in populations with high initial frequency of resistance, both in laboratory conditions and in a mouse model of gut colonization. Thus, RNase HI provides a target specific against resistant bacteria, which we validate using a repurposed drug. In summary, we revealed key mechanisms underlying the fitness cost of antibiotic resistance mutations that can be exploited to specifically eliminate resistant bacteria.

Balbontín, Roberto↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Pleiotropic Flowering Time QTL Exhibits Gene-by-Environment Interaction for Fitness in a Perennial Grass

Appropriate flowering time is a crucial adaptation impacting fitness in natural plant populations. Although the genetic basis of flowering variation has been extensively studied, its mechanisms in nonmodel organisms and its adaptive value in the field are still poorly understood. Here, we report new insights into the genetic basis of flowering time and its effect on fitness in Panicum hallii, a native perennial grass. Genetic mapping in populations derived from inland and coastal ecotypes identified flowering time quantitative trait loci (QTL) and many exhibited extensive QTL-by-environment interactions. Patterns of segregation within recombinant hybrids provide strong support for directional selection driving ecotypic divergence in flowering time. A major QTL on chromosome 5 (q-FT5) was detected in all experiments. Fine-mapping and expression studies identified a gene with orthology to a rice FLOWERING LOCUS T-like 9 (PhFTL9) as the candidate underlying q-FT5. We used a reciprocal transplant experiment to test for local adaptation and the specific impact of q-FT5 on performance. We did not observe local adaptation in terms of fitness tradeoffs when contrasting ecotypes in home versus away habitats. However, we observed that the coastal allele of q-FT5 conferred a fitness advantage only in its local habitat but not at the inland site. Sequence analyses identified an excess of low-frequency polymorphisms at the PhFTL9 promoter in the inland lineage, suggesting a role for either selection or population expansion on promoter evolution. Together, our findings demonstrate the genetic basis of flowering variation in a perennial grass and provide evidence for conditional neutrality underlying flowering time divergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global fit of electron and neutrino elastic scattering data to determine the strange quark contribution to the vector and axial form factors of the nucleon

We present a global fit of neutral-current elastic (NCE) neutrino-scattering data and parity-violating electron-scattering (PVES) data with the goal of determining the strange quark contribution to the vector and axial form factors of the proton. Previous fits of this form included data from a variety of PVES experiments (PVA4, HAPPEx, G0, SAMPLE) and the NCE neutrino and anti-neutrino data from BNL E734. These fits did not constrain the strangeness contribution to the axial form factor G A s ( Q 2 ) at low Q 2 very well because there was no NCE data for Q 2 < 0.45 GeV 2 . Our new fit includes for the first time MiniBooNE NCE data from both neutrino and antineutrino scattering; this experiment used a hydrocarbon target and so a model of the neutrino interaction with the carbon nucleus was required. Three different nuclear models have been employed: a relativistic Fermi gas model, the superscaling approximation model, and a spectral function model. We find a tremendous improvement in the constraint of G A s ( Q 2 ) at low Q 2 compared to previous work, although more data is needed from NCE measurements that focus on exclusive single-proton final states, for example from MicroBooNE. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

xMDFF: molecular dynamics flexible fitting of low-resolution X-ray structures

A new real-space refinement method for low-resolution X-ray crystallography is presented. The method is based on the molecular dynamics flexible fitting protocol targeted at addressing large-scale deformations of the search model to achieve refinement with minimal manual intervention. An explanation of the method is provided, augmented by results from the refinement of both synthetic and experimental low-resolution data, including an independent electrophysiological verification of the xMDFF-refined crystal structure of a voltage-sensor protein. X-ray crystallography remains the most dominant method for solving atomic structures. However, for relatively large systems, the availability of only medium-to-low-resolution diffraction data often limits the determination of all-atom details. A new molecular dynamics flexible fitting (MDFF)-based approach, xMDFF, for determining structures from such low-resolution crystallographic data is reported. xMDFF employs a real-space refinement scheme that flexibly fits atomic models into an iteratively updating electron-density map. It addresses significant large-scale deformations of the initial model to fit the low-resolution density, as tested with synthetic low-resolution maps of d-ribose-binding protein. xMDFF has been successfully applied to re-refine six low-resolution protein structures of varying sizes that had already been submitted to the Protein Data Bank. Finally, via systematic refinement of a series of data from 3.6 to 7 Å resolution, xMDFF refinements together with electrophysiology experiments were used to validate the first all-atom structure of the voltage-sensing protein Ci-VSP.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

TriGORank: A Gene Ontology Enriched Learning-to-Rank Framework for Trigenic Fitness Prediction

Machine learning (ML) has been gaining interest in the metabolic engineering community as a means to automate prediction tasks. In this work, we introduce and study the task of using ML to recommend high-fitness triplet mutants as candidates for wet-lab experiments. We first utilize individual fitness and digenic fitness scores as features and train machine learning models that produce a ranked list, from high to low fitness scores, for triplet gene mutants of S. cerevisiae. Then, we incorporate prior metabolic knowledge from an existing gene ontology, by designing a novel graph representation and deducing features that can capture gene similarity and gene interactions. Lastly, experimental results show that our proposed gene ontology enriched model, termed TriGORank, improves both performance and explainability.

Labhishetty, Sahiti↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long‐term evaluation of fitness and demographic effects of a Chinook Salmon supplementation program

Abstract While the goal of supplementation programs is to provide positive, population‐level effects for species of conservation concern, these programs can also present an inherent fitness risk when captive‐born individuals are fully integrated into the natural population. In order to evaluate the long‐term effects of a supplementation program and estimate the demographic and phenotypic factors influencing the fitness of a threatened population of Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), we genotyped tissue samples spanning a 19‐year period (1998–2016) to generate pedigrees from adult fish returning to Johnson Creek, Idaho, USA. We expanded upon previous estimates of relative reproductive success (RRS) to include grandparentage analyses and used generalized linear models to determine whether origin (hatchery or natural) or phenotypic traits (timing of arrival to spawning grounds, body length, and age) significantly predicted reproductive success (RS) across multiple years. Our results provide evidence that this supplementation program with 100% natural‐origin broodstock provided a long‐term demographic boost to the population (mean of 4.56 times in the first generation and mean of 2.52 times in the second generation). Overall, when spawning in nature, hatchery‐origin fish demonstrated a trend toward lower RS compared to natural‐origin fish ( p < 0.05). However, when hatchery‐origin fish successfully spawned with natural‐origin fish, they had similar RS compared to natural by natural crosses (first‐generation mean hatchery by natural cross RRS = 1.11 females, 1.13 males; second‐generation mean hatchery by natural cross RRS = 1.03 females, 1.08 males). While origin, return year, and body length were significant predictors of fitness for both males and females ( p < 0.05), return day was significant for males but not females ( p > 0.05). These results indicate that supplementation programs that reduce the potential for genetic adaptation to captivity can be effective at increasing population abundance while limiting long‐term fitness effects on wild populations.

Janowitz‐Koch, Ilana↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-204-05: Fitting Four NTCP Models to Treatment Outcome Data of Salivary Glands Recorded Six Months After Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Tumors

Purpose: To estimate the radiobiological parameters of four popular NTCP models that describe the dose-response relations of salivary glands to the severity of patient reported dry mouth 6 months post chemo-radiotherapy. To identify the glands, which best correlate with the manifestation of those clinical endpoints. Finally, to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the NTCP models. Methods: Forty-three patients were treated on a prospective multiinstitutional phase II study for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. All the patients received 60 Gy IMRT and they reported symptoms using the novel patient reported outcome version of the CTCAE. We derived the individual patient dosimetric data of the parotid and submandibular glands (SMG) as separate structures as well as combinations. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB), Relative Seriality (RS), Logit and Relative Logit (RL) NTCP models were used to fit the patients data. The fitting of the different models was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Odds Ratio methods. Results: The AUC values were highest for the contralateral parotid for Grade ≥ 2 (0.762 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.753 for the RL). For the salivary glands the AUC values were: 0.725 for the LKB, RS, Logit and 0.721 for the RL. For the contralateral SMG the AUC values were: 0.721 for LKB, 0.714 for Logit and 0.712 for RS and RL. The Odds Ratio for the contralateral parotid was 5.8 (1.3–25.5) for all the four NTCP models for the radiobiological dose threshold of 21Gy. Conclusion: It was shown that all the examined NTCP models could fit the clinical data well with very similar accuracy. The contralateral parotid gland appears to correlated best with the clinical endpoints of severe/very severe dry mouth. An EQD2Gy dose of 21Gy appears to be a safe threshold to be used as a constraint in treatment planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Novel Metal Cation Resistance Systems from Mutant Fitness Analysis of Denitrifying Pseudomonas stutzeri

Metal ion transport systems have been studied extensively, but the specificity of a given transporter is often unclear from amino acid sequence data alone. In this study, predicted Cu 2+ and Zn 2+ resistance systems in Pseudomonas stutzeri strain RCH2 are compared with those experimentally implicated in Cu 2+ and Zn 2+ resistance, as determined by using a DNA-barcoded transposon mutant library. Mutant fitness data obtained under denitrifying conditions are combined with regulon predictions to yield a much more comprehensive picture of Cu 2+ and Zn 2+ resistance in strain RCH2. The results not only considerably expand what is known about well-established metal ion exporters (CzcCBA, CzcD, and CusCBA) and their accessory proteins (CzcI and CusF), they also reveal that isolates with mutations in some predicted Cu 2+ resistance systems do not show decreased fitness relative to the wild type when exposed to Cu 2+ . In addition, new genes are identified that have no known connection to Zn 2+ ( corB , corC , Psest_3226, Psest_3322, and Psest_0618) or Cu 2+ resistance (Mrp antiporter subunit gene, Psest_2850, and Psest_0584) but are crucial for resistance to these metal cations. Growth of individual deletion mutants lacking corB , corC , Psest_3226, or Psest_3322 confirmed the observed Zn-dependent phenotypes. Notably, to our knowledge, this is the first time a bacterial homolog of TMEM165, a human gene responsible for a congenital glycosylation disorder, has been deleted and the resulting strain characterized. Finally, the fitness values indicate Cu 2+ - and Zn 2+ -based inhibition of nitrite reductase and interference with molybdenum cofactor biosynthesis for nitrate reductase. These results extend the current understanding of Cu 2+ and Zn 2+ efflux and resistance and their effects on denitrifying metabolism. Here in this study, genome-wide mutant fitness data in P. stutzeri RCH2 combined with regulon predictions identify several proteins of unknown function that are involved in resisting zinc and copper toxicity. For zinc, these include a member of the UPF0016 protein family that was previously implicated in Ca 2+ /H + antiport and a human congenital glycosylation disorder, CorB and CorC, which were previously linked to Mg 2+ transport, and Psest_3322 and Psest_0618, two proteins with no characterized homologs. Experiments using mutants lacking Psest_3226, Psest_3322, corB , corC , or czcI verified their proposed functions, which will enable future studies of these little-characterized zinc resistance determinants. Likewise, Psest_2850, annotated as an ion antiporter subunit, and the conserved hypothetical protein Psest_0584 are implicated in copper resistance. Physiological connections between previous studies and phenotypes presented here are discussed. Functional and mechanistic understanding of transport proteins improves the understanding of systems in which members of the same protein family, including those in humans, can have different functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

SCEC/USGS Community Stress-Drop Validation Study: How Spectral Fitting Approaches Influence Measured Source Parameters

Spectral source parameters used to estimate an earthquake’s stress drop (⁠Δσ⁠) can vary significantly across measurement approaches. The Statewide California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey Community Stress‐Drop Validation Study was initiated to compare source parameter estimates, focusing initially on a dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. As part of that validation effort, here we focus on one potential source of uncertainty: whether spectral fitting approaches alone, applied to a common set of spectra from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence result in different source parameter estimates. By using a common set of benchmark spectra analyzed across a consistent frequency band of 1–40 Hz, we eliminate many sources of variability. A subgroup of validation study participants volunteered to estimate the low‐frequency displacement (⁠Ω 0 ⁠) and corner frequency (⁠ƒ c ⁠) by fitting a smooth function to benchmark displacement spectra. Participants used linear‐ or log‐sampled spectra, assumed a Brune or Boatwright spectral model, and applied different misfit criteria. We compare 17 approaches used to estimate ⁠Ω 0 ⁠, ƒ c ⁠, and Δσ for 54 earthquake spectra. Our results reveal that 35% of events have Δσ estimates within a factor of two, whereas others exhibit variations exceeding an order of magnitude. The variability in and can largely be attributed to whether a spectrum is consistent with the smooth function of an idealized simple crack model. The trade‐off between Ω 0 and ƒ c may be more pronounced when using linearly sampled spectra, as higher frequency spectral bumps control the fits. As expected, methods that assumed a Boatwright model tended to have lower Ω 0 and somewhat higher ƒ c compared to those assuming a Brune model, although resulting Δσ estimates are similar. Finally, when compared to the overall validation study results, the fitting approach alone may account for between 5% and 90% (25% on average) of the total variability in spectral Δσ⁠.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of pressure test results of tube fittings for the potential application in cryo systems for helium leak rate reduction

Due to the nature of Helium, it is notoriously difficult to maintain a closed system without experiencing helium inventory loss through leakage in large tubing and piping runs. There are two standard fitting options readily available for piping and tubing assemblies, welded fittings or Swagelok ® . Welding is the best option for leak rate reduction, but more costly than Swagelok ® . A new style of fitting has come to the attention of BNL C-AD Cryo group, and a pressure test and leak rate analysis were performed to evaluate the viability of incorporating this new style fitting into current engineering design of warm helium tubing runs for the purpose of leak rate reduction.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fitness for Service Assessment of a Corroded Heat Exchanger

Fermilab s Main Injector Accelerator has used shell & tube heat exchangers to cool various beamline components since its construction in the late 1990s. Many of the heat exchangers still around today are original to the machine. Untreated pond water has been used to exchange heat with the Low Conductivity Water. Throughout the lifetime of Fermilab s heat exchangers, they have undergone significant material degradation in the carbon steel end channels due to corrosion. Wall thickness measurements (per API 510) of each heat exchanger were used to generate a 3D model of the corroded surfaces. In order to continue their safe and reliable operation, ASME FFS-1/API 579 (Fitness-For-Service) was implemented to address their integrity. The assessments consisted of finite element analysis techniques outlined in ASME Section VIII Div. 2 (design by analysis methods for pressure vessels), in accordance with the requirements of ASME FFS-1 Part 4: General Metal Loss, Part 5: Local Metal Loss, and Part 9: Crack Like Flaws. The assessments concluded that each heat exchanger is coined Fit For Service . The Fitness-For-Service standard offers a unique opportunity to facilities and institutions within the DOE National Lab complex to properly and safely assess the integrity of aging equipment necessary to conduct science and research. This poster demonstrates the assessment process and techniques used to determine the heat exchangers are fit for service.

Humenik, Alex [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2026

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗
DOE OSTI2016

Elevohi: a novel CME prediction tool for heliospheric imaging combining an elliptical front with drag-based model fitting

In this study, we present a new method for forecasting arrival times and speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at any location in the inner heliosphere. This new approach enables the adoption of a highly flexible geometrical shape for the CME front with an adjustable CME angular width and an adjustable radius of curvature of its leading edge, i.e., the assumed geometry is elliptical. Using, as input, Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imager (HI) observations, a new elliptic conversion (ElCon) method is introduced and combined with the use of drag-based model (DBM) fitting to quantify the deceleration or acceleration experienced by CMEs during propagation. The result is then used as input for the Ellipse Evolution Model (ElEvo). Together, ElCon, DBM fitting, and ElEvo form the novel ElEvoHI forecasting utility. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI, we forecast the arrival times and speeds of 21 CMEs remotely observed from STEREO/HI and compare them to in situ arrival times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the commonly used STEREO/HI fitting techniques (Fixed-ϕ, Harmonic Mean, and Self-similar Expansion fitting), ElEvoHI improves the arrival time forecast by about 2 to ±6.5 hr and the arrival speed forecast by ≈250 to ±53 km s{sup −1}, depending on the ellipse aspect ratio assumed. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival speed prediction is potentially beneficial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength at Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗