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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

On the frontiers of coupled extreme environments

Coupled extreme environments pose among the highest demands on materials, stressing the limits of temperature, pressure, electric and magnetic fields, atomic displacement rates, and chemical potentials that can be simultaneously sustained. Here, this issue highlights exciting new materials science methods that will enable rapid progress in what has traditionally been the most difficult materials arena. New opportunities in artificial intelligence, multi-physics simulations capabilities, the use of extreme conditions to synthesize novel materials, and our ability to interrogate materials under relevant conditions provide new avenues to understand and design new materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods

Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Chaos to Clarity: Autonomous Materials Discovery for Extreme Environments

The pursuit of advanced functional materials for energy applications demands an understanding of their behavior under the most challenging conditions. Extreme environments, characterized by intense radiation, high temperatures, and corrosive chemistries, push materials to their limits, often revealing unexpected behaviors and degradation pathways. Traditional materials research approaches, relying on trial-and-error experimentation, are often slow and resource-intensive, ill-suited to the complexities of extreme environments. This talk will explore the transformative potential of autonomous materials science in revolutionizing our understanding of materials synthesis and degradation in extreme environments. By integrating advanced microscopy techniques, artificial intelligence, and robotic experimentation, we can accelerate the discovery and design of resilient materials for a sustainable future. The presentation will highlight recent breakthroughs in autonomous microscopy, computer vision, and machine learning, showcasing their ability to unravel complex material transformations at the atomic scale. The talk will also delve into the challenges and opportunities associated with deploying autonomous systems to probe extreme environments, emphasizing the importance of robust algorithms, real-time data analysis, and adaptive experimentation. Our ultimate goal is to empower scientists with unprecedented capabilities to explore, understand, and engineer materials that can withstand the harshest conditions, paving the way for innovations in energy, aerospace, and beyond.

artificial intelligence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Knowledge Graph Framework for Organizing Heterogeneous Datasets for Utilization in Classical and Quantum Computing: Current Challenges and Future Directions

"The escalating impact of climate change induced extreme weather events in urban, suburban, and rural environments demands a rethink of how we have been using the single event-based or use-case-based knowledge graph models. The lack of representation in interaction within environmental variables found in literature led to the development of a novel framework that reflects the true nature of the interconnectedness in our environment. We propose an Environmental Interaction Knowledge Graph (EIKG) framework. This general EIKG framework works as the basis for interconnected environmental events by knitting interrelated events such as hurricanes leading to storm surges, which lead to flood events that could cause mudslides, landslides, etc., The cascading nature of one event leading to another related event in the environment requires an adequate understanding of each event using contextual information before conducting any data-driven analytics. This vision paper showcases how the EIKG:floods, EIKG:wildfire EIKG:landslides, etc, can be derived from a base case framework of EIKG as those individual events are interconnected with some common denominator variables. As an example, the precipitation variable is used in the flood case study as well as in the wildfire case study, as excessive precipitation levels lead to floods, and lack of precipitation leads to droughts and wildfires. We identify the precipitation variable as a “common-denominator-variable” in extreme weather events that play a key role in modeling the environment leading to different extreme weather events based on the variability of that variable (varying values where low precipitation leads to drought, and high values lead to floods). We use the insights gained from EIKG to conduct classical and Quantum Machine Learning (QML) based data analysis on the research questions developed. Our preliminary study shows how the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) and Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) are used along with the classical machine learning models to compare the model accuracies. Our study elaborates on how a quantitative analysis uses state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include implementing both classical and quantum machine learning models and developing the knowledge graph. The EIKG is used to organize heterogeneous datasets and integrate the relations to case-specific extreme weather events such as floods. The study uses datasets such as county-to-country residential mobility data, socioeconomic datasets from the US Census Bureau, climate and weather-related Earth Observational data from NASA, and critical infrastructure data from the Homeland Infrastructure datasets."

Knowledge Graphs, Quantum Computing, Heterogenous ↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Chaos to Clarity: Autonomous Materials Discovery for Extreme Environments [Slides]

The pursuit of advanced functional materials for energy applications demands an understanding of their behavior under the most challenging conditions. Extreme environments, characterized by intense radiation, high temperatures, and corrosive chemistries, push materials to their limits, often revealing unexpected behaviors and degradation pathways. Traditional materials research approaches, relying on trial-and-error experimentation, are often slow and resource-intensive, ill-suited to the complexities of extreme environments. This talk will explore the transformative potential of autonomous materials science in revolutionizing our understanding of materials synthesis and degradation in extreme environments. By integrating advanced microscopy techniques, artificial intelligence, and robotic experimentation, we can accelerate the discovery and design of resilient materials for a sustainable future. The presentation will highlight recent breakthroughs in autonomous microscopy, computer vision, and machine learning, showcasing their ability to unravel complex material transformations at the atomic scale. The talk will also delve into the challenges and opportunities associated with deploying autonomous systems to probe extreme environments, emphasizing the importance of robust algorithms, real-time data analysis, and adaptive experimentation. The ultimate goal is to empower scientists with unprecedented capabilities to explore, understand, and engineer materials that can withstand the harshest conditions, paving the way for innovations in energy, aerospace, and beyond.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting band gaps and band-edge positions of oxide perovskites using density functional theory and machine learning

Density functional theory (DFT) within the local or semilocal density approximations, i.e., the local density approximation (LDA) or generalized gradient approximation (GGA), has become a workhorse in the electronic structure theory of solids, being extremely fast and reliable for energetics and structural properties, yet remaining highly inaccurate for predicting band gaps of semiconductors and insulators. The accurate prediction of band gaps using first-principles methods is time consuming, requiring hybrid functionals, quasiparticle GW, or quantum Monte Carlo methods. Efficiently correcting DFT-LDA/GGA band gaps and unveiling the main chemical and structural factors involved in this correction is desirable for discovering novel materials in high-throughput calculations. In this direction, we, in this study, use DFT and machine learning techniques to correct band gaps and band-edge positions of a representative subset of ABO 3 perovskite oxides. Relying on the results of HSE06 hybrid functional calculations as target values of band gaps, we find a systematic band-gap correction of ~1.5 eV for this class of materials, where ~1 eV comes from downward shifting the valence band and ~0.5 eV from uplifting the conduction band. The main chemical and structural factors determining the band-gap correction are determined through a feature selection procedure.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Genome-Wide Analysis of RNA Decay in the Cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. Strain PCC 7002

ABSTRACT RNA degradation is an important process that influences the ultimate concentration of individual proteins inside cells. While the main enzymes that facilitate this process have been identified, global maps of RNA turnover are available for only a few species. Even in these cases, there are few sequence elements that are known to enhance or destabilize a native transcript; even fewer confer the same effect when added to a heterologous transcript. To address this knowledge gap, we assayed genome-wide RNA degradation in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002 by collecting total RNA samples after stopping nascent transcription with rifampin. We quantified the abundance of each position in the transcriptome as a function of time using RNA-sequencing data and later analyzed the global mRNA decay map using machine learning principles. Half-lives, calculated on a per-ORF (open reading frame) basis, were extremely short, with a median half-life of only 0.97 min. Despite extremely rapid turnover of most mRNA, transcripts encoding proteins involved in photosynthesis were both highly expressed and highly stable. Upon inspection of these stable transcripts, we identified an enriched motif in the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) that had similarity to Rho-independent terminators. We built statistical models for half-life prediction and used them to systematically identify sequence motifs in both 5′ and 3′ UTRs that correlate with stabilized transcripts. We found that transcripts linked to a terminator containing a poly(U) tract had a longer half-life than both those without a poly(U) tract and those without a terminator. IMPORTANCE RNA degradation is an important process that affects the final concentration of individual mRNAs, affecting protein expression and cellular physiology. Studies of how RNA is degraded increase our knowledge of this fundamental process as well as enable the creation of genetic tools to manipulate RNA stability. By studying global transcript turnover, we searched for sequence elements that correlated with transcript (in)stability and used these sequences to guide tool design. This study probes global RNA turnover in a cyanobacterium, Synechococcus sp. strain PCC 7002, that both has a unique array of RNases that facilitate RNA degradation and is an industrially relevant strain that could be used to convert CO 2 and sunlight into useful products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Methodologies for Applying Machine Learning and Evaluating Spatiotemporal Models of Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Using Satellite Data Over Large Regions

Reconstructing the distribution of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in space and time, even far from ground monitoring sites, is an important exposure science contribution to epidemiologic analyses of PM 2.5 health impacts. Flexible statistical methods for prediction have demonstrated the integration of satellite observations with other predictors, yet these algorithms are susceptible to overfitting the spatiotemporal structure of the training datasets. We present a new approach for predicting PM 2.5 using machine-learning methods and evaluating prediction models for the goal of making predictions where they were not previously available. We apply extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) modeling to predict daily PM 2.5 on a 1 x 1 km 2 resolution for a 13 state region in the Northeastern USA for the years 2000–2015 using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth and implement a recursive feature selection to develop a parsimonious model. We demonstrate excellent predictions of withheld observations but also contrast an RMSE of 3.11 μg/m 3 in our spatial cross-validation withholding nearby sites versus an overfit RMSE of 2.10 μg/m 3 using a more conventional random ten-fold splitting of the dataset. As the field of exposure science moves forward with the use of advanced machine-learning approaches for spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutants, our results show the importance of addressing data leakage in training, overfitting to spatiotemporal structure, and the impact of the predominance of ground monitoring sites in dense urban sub-networks on model evaluation. The strengths of our resultant modeling approach for exposure in epidemiologic studies of PM 2.5 include improved efficiency, parsimony, and interpretability with robust validation while still accommodating complex spatiotemporal relationships.

air pollution↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automation is all you need: Faster Earth system models with AI/ML

Focal Area: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced methods. Science Challenge: Tropical cyclones can in- duce extreme water cycle events through dramatic precipitation and storm surge. More reliable models of intensity will translate into better prediction of the impact of extreme events in large scale Earth systems simulations. We demonstrate and describe AI/ML methodologies for rapid assimilation of new, in situ data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A tale of two extremes: Temperature sensitivity of carbon loss from cool and hot soils

Soils represent the largest terrestrial carbon (C) pool, and the flux of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soils to the atmosphere is ~ 6-10 times more than anthropogenic emissions. Understanding responses of soil CO 2 emissions to warming is crucial for evaluating feedback to ongoing environmental changes. The relationship between microbial respiration and temperature is typically modeled using a Q 10 function. Generally, observations of the apparent Q 10 of soil respiration are higher for cold vs. warm ecosystems, reflecting expected biophysical controls of Arrhenius kinetics. However, results from two field warming experiments in the tropics contradict this expectation, both observing extraordinarily high soil respiration responses to in situ warming. Our overall objective for the proposed work is to reduce uncertainty in temperature sensitivity of soil C loss by systematically synthesizing underlying mechanisms related to soil C turnover and stabilization. We are evaluating the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in ecosystems across temperature extremes (e.g., arctic/boreal and tropical systems) by integrating data collected from field warming experiments with machine learning and biogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Diameter-dependent multiple proton jumps dictate hydronium and hydroxide transport in carbon nanotubes

Nanofluidic channels impose extreme confinement on water, giving rise to unusual transport phenomena of the liquid. However, how the transport of hydroxide and hydronium ions is influenced by such confinement is still not fully understood. This study employs machine learning-accelerated simulations, based on the SCAN density functional, to investigate proton transfer dynamics in CNTs of varying diameters (0.8 nm to 2.8 nm). The extreme confinement of water inside a 0.8 nm CNT not only enhances the probability of multiple consecutive proton jumps, but also reverses the relative diffusion coefficient of hydronium and hydroxide ions in bulk water. In CNTs with diameters larger than 0.8 nm, hydronium diffuses slightly faster than in bulk water, whereas hydroxide diffusion slows because of its localization near CNT walls, hindering multiple proton jumps. This work highlights the significant impact of nanoscale confinement on proton transfer dynamics, with implications for designing nanoscale systems with controlled proton transport.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous convergence of STM control parameters using Bayesian optimization

Scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) is a widely used tool for atomic imaging of novel materials and their surface energetics. However, the optimization of the imaging conditions is a tedious process due to the extremely sensitive tip–surface interaction, thus limiting the throughput efficiency. In this paper, we deploy a machine learning (ML)-based framework to achieve optimal atomically resolved imaging conditions in real time. The experimental workflow leverages the Bayesian optimization (BO) method to rapidly improve the image quality, defined by the peak intensity in the Fourier space. The outcome of the BO prediction is incorporated into the microscope controls, i.e., the current setpoint and the tip bias, to dynamically improve the STM scan conditions. We present strategies to either selectively explore or exploit across the parameter space. As a result, suitable policies are developed for autonomous convergence of the control parameters. The ML-based framework serves as a general workflow methodology across a wide range of materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computer Science Research Needs for Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES)

Historically, scientific computing efforts have demonstrated the clear need for, and effective use of, supercomputing with traditional time-stepped simulations. Nevertheless, there are several areas in the mission spaces of the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies waiting to tap advanced computing research using a different, discrete event style of modeling, simulation, and analysis. These span a wide spectrum of applications including energy grid resilience, urban planning and policy, transportation science, building technologies, emergency response and planning, environmental impact analysis, computational epidemiology, Internet communications, cyber security, and cyber-physical systems, to name only a few. Even within traditional scientific applications, the role of discrete event modes of execution is increasing in the form of new event-based mathematical solvers such as quantized state integration methods and discrete-continuous hybrid system solvers. Co-design of advanced supercomputing hardware systems is another area that exploits discrete event simulation at its core for effective analyses. Complex systems, entity behaviors and interconnections play a significant role in all these applications, which are mapped to large-scale models with discrete event formulations. To make advancements in all the aforementioned scientific areas, many technical aspects need to be more thoroughly studied and deeply understood in parallel discrete event simulation (PDES). The unique dynamics inherent in a discrete event modeling approach, by their very nature, intersect and influence the entire stack of the computing system, including (a) the unique nature of the instruction sets exercised in PDES workloads without a predominance of high-precision floating point operations, (b) virtual time-constrained multi-threaded execution of many logical processes per processor, (c) extremely variable and difficult to predict network traffic characteristics, (d) interfaces and inter-dependencies with machine learning and artificial intelligence codes at higher software layers, and (e) highly challenging load balancing needs, especially in effectively accounting for accelerated/extremely heterogeneous computing in current and future high-performance computing systems. Efficient and accurate parallel execution of PDES workloads is also dominated by challenges in dealing with their asynchronous concurrency fundamentally present at the model level. Conservative synchronization, optimistic/speculative synchronization, and their hybrid schemes open new questions in fundamental computer science with respect to reversibility of computation and prediction (lookahead) of behaviors inherent within model codes. On the implementation front, there are relatively few scalable, general-purpose parallel discrete event simulators in the world, and even fewer have been studied on emerging hardware platforms. To enable scientific advances using PDES, the research needs in computer science must also be pursued and met in the intersection of the algorithmic and hardware-aware aspects of scalable PDES engines. This report is aimed at capturing a computer science-oriented view of this important area of research in PDES, presenting a sample of important applications with their inherent discrete event technology elements. Needs are outlined in core areas of parallel discrete event research as well as cross-cutting directions in computer science research that positively impact scientific advancements across several important application areas. A selection of priority research opportunities in advanced computing for PDES is identified to serve as reference for key research topics and their order of importance for scientific advancements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing ML/AI Methods for High-Throughput Characterization of Multiple-Sensor Streams of Tokamak Dynamics for High-Speed Control (Final Report)

This project evaluated and developed new mathematical and algorithmic techniques capable of handling (in real-time) the growing amounts of data generated by modern fusion research. While existing numerical linear algebra (NLA) methods provide the backbone to classical data analysis and algorithms, these methods fundamentally do not port to distributed architectures nor do they allow low-latency data reduction for control. Motivated by the needs for modern fusion reactors, this project explored and implemented new numerical methods to characterize plasma dynamics, respond in real-time to discharge evolution, and to process massive-scale data accurately and rapidly more fully. This project links expertise in multiple-sensor diagnostics of tokamak plasma dynamics from Columbia University’s Plasma Physics Laboratory with expertise in massive-scale data reduction and extreme data control algorithms at Columbia University’s Data Science Institute. This interdisciplinary project (i) applied machine learning methods, (ii) implemented a properly-trained neural-network for very fast processing of high-speed plasma videography, and (ii) developed the applied mathematical methods, based on randomized-NLA (rNLA) routines, for data analysis, reduction, and real-time control. The Columbia University High Beta Tokamak-Extended Pulse (HBT-EP) facility provided data to test new algorithms and partnership with Columbia University's Data Sciences Institute evaluated the broader use of new algorithms for many challenging control applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and observations of North Atlantic cyclones: Implications for U.S. Offshore wind energy

To meet the Biden-Harris administration's goal of deploying 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050, expansion of wind energy into U.S. territorial waters prone to tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is essential. This requires a deeper understanding of cyclone-related risks and the development of robust, resilient offshore wind energy systems. Here, this paper provides a comprehensive review of state-of-the-science measurement and modeling capabilities for studying TCs and ETCs, and their impacts across various spatial and temporal scales. We explore measurement capabilities for environments influenced by TCs and ETCs, including near-surface and vertical profiles of critical variables that characterize these cyclones. The capabilities and limitations of Earth system and mesoscale models are assessed for their effectiveness in capturing atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions that influence TC/ETC-induced risks under a changing climate. Additionally, we discuss microscale modeling capabilities designed to bridge scale gaps from the weather scale (a few kilometers) to the turbine scale (dozens to a few meters). We also review machine learning (ML)-based, data-driven models for simulating TC/ETC events at both weather and wind turbine scales. Special attention is given to extreme metocean conditions like extreme wind gusts, rapid wind direction changes, and high waves, which pose threats to offshore wind energy infrastructure. Finally, the paper outlines the research challenges and future directions needed to enhance the resilience and design of next-generation offshore wind turbines against extreme weather conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Non‐Intrusive Machine Learning Framework for Debiasing Long‐Time Coarse Resolution Climate Simulations and Quantifying Rare Events Statistics

Abstract Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully‐resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on coarse‐models to quantify risk for extremes. However, coarse models suffer from inherent bias due to the ignored “sub‐grid” scales. We propose a framework to non‐intrusively debias coarse‐resolution climate predictions using neural‐network (NN) correction operators. Previous efforts have attempted to train such operators using loss functions that match statistics. However, this approach falls short with events that have longer return period than that of the training data, since the reference statistics have not converged. Here, the scope is to formulate a learning method that allows for correction of dynamics and quantification of extreme events with longer return period than the training data. The key obstacle is the chaotic nature of the underlying dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a dynamical systems approach where the correction operator is trained using reference data and a coarse model simulation nudged toward that reference. The method is demonstrated on debiasing an under‐resolved quasi‐geostrophic model and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). For the former, our method enables the quantification of events that have return period two orders longer than the training data. For the latter, when trained on 8 years of ERA5 data, our approach is able to correct the coarse E3SM output to closely reflect the 36‐year ERA5 statistics for all prognostic variables and significantly reduce their spatial biases.

Barthel Sorensen, B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗