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DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the origin of supermassive black holes with coherent neutrino scattering

Collapsing supermassive stars (M ≳ 3 × 10 4 M ⊙ ) at high redshifts can naturally provide seeds and explain the origin of the supermassive black holes observed in the centers of nearly all galaxies. During the collapse of supermassive stars, a burst of non-thermal neutrinos is generated with a luminosity that could greatly exceed that of a conventional core collapse supernova explosion. In this work, we investigate the extent to which the neutrinos produced in these explosions can be observed via coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEνNS). Large scale direct dark matter detection experiments provide particularly favorable targets. Finally, we find that upcoming O(100) tonne-scale experiments will be sensitive to the collapse of individual supermassive stars at distances as large as $\mathcal{O}$(10) Mpc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The collapse and three-dimensional explosion of three-dimensional massive-star supernova progenitor models

ABSTRACT The explosion outcome and diagnostics of core-collapse supernovae depend sensitively on the nature of the stellar progenitor, but most studies to date have focused exclusively on one-dimensional, spherically symmetric massive star progenitors. We present some of the first core-collapse supernovae simulations of three-dimensional massive star supernovae progenitors, a 12.5- and a 15-M⊙ model, evolved in three dimensions from collapse to bounce through explosion with the radiation-hydrodynamic code fornax. We compare the results using those starting from three-dimensional progenitors to three-dimensional simulations of spherically symmetric, one-dimensional progenitors of the same mass. We find that the models evolved in three dimensions during the final stages of massive star evolution are more prone to explosion. The turbulence arising in these multidimensional initial models serves as seed turbulence that promotes shock revival. Detection of gravitational waves and neutrinos signals could reveal signatures of pre-bounce turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gamma Rays as a Signature of r -process Producing Supernovae: Remnants and Future Galactic Explosions

We consider the question of whether core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) can produce rapid neutron capture process (r-process) elements and how future MeV gamma-ray observations could address this. Rare types of CCSNe characterized by substantial magnetic fields and rotation, known as magnetorotational supernovae (MR-SNe), are theoretically predicted to produce these elements, although direct observational evidence is lacking. We suggest that this critical question be addressed through the study of some of the 11 CCSN remnants located within 10 kpc, as well as through the detection of gamma-ray emission from a future Galactic supernova. We use a two-dimensional MR-SN model to estimate the expected gamma flux stemming from nuclear decays in the range of a few tens of keV to a few MeV. Our results indicate that an observation of 126 Sn ( 126 Sb) in a remnant stands out as a signature of an r-process-producing supernova. Since the neutron-rich conditions that lead to the production of the r-process could also enhance the production of 60 Fe, the detection of substantial 60 Fe ( 60 Co) would be indicative of favorable conditions for the r-process. In the case of a future supernova explosion, when the evolution of the spectrum is studied over 10 days to a few years, a rich picture emerges. At various epochs, the second peak r-process isotopes such as 125 Sn, 131 I, 132 Te, 132 I, and 140 La produce signals that are not obscured by the gamma emission from explosive burning products and electron–positron annihilation. The weak r-process isotopes 95 Nb, 103 Ru, and 106 Rh also have periods of prominence.

Gamma-rays↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric waves and global seismoacoustic observations of the January 2022 Hunga eruption, Tonga

The 15 January 2022 climactic eruption of Hunga volcano, Tonga, produced an explosion in the atmosphere of a size that has not been documented in the modern geophysical record. The event generated a broad range of atmospheric waves observed globally by various ground-based and spaceborne instrumentation networks. Most prominent was the surface-guided Lamb wave (≲0.01 hertz), which we observed propagating for four (plus three antipodal) passages around Earth over 6 days. As measured by the Lamb wave amplitudes, the climactic Hunga explosion was comparable in size to that of the 1883 Krakatau eruption. The Hunga eruption produced remarkable globally detected infrasound (0.01 to 20 hertz), long-range (~10,000 kilometers) audible sound, and ionospheric perturbations. Seismometers worldwide recorded pure seismic and air-to-ground coupled waves. Air-to-sea coupling likely contributed to fast-arriving tsunamis. In this article, we highlight exceptional observations of the atmospheric waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Vertical Response of an Aeroseismometer Balloon System

Aeroseismometery is a novel, cutting edge capability that involves balloon based systems for detecting and geolocating sources of infrasound. The incident infrasound from a range of sources such as volcanos, earthquakes, explosions, supersonic aircraft impinges upon the balloon system causing it to respond dynamically. The dynamic response is post-processed to locate the infrasound source. This report documents the derivation of an analytical model that predicts the balloon dynamics. Governing equations for the system are derived as well as a transfer function relating the infrasound signal to the net force on the balloon components. Experimental measurements of the infrasound signals are convolved with the transfer function and the governing equations numerically time integrated to obtain predictions of the displacement, velocity and acceleration of the balloon system. The predictions are compared to the experimental measurements with good agreement observed. The derivation focuses only on the vertical dynamics of the balloon system. Future work will develop governing equations for the swinging response of the balloon to the incident infrasound.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weather radar utility in hazard detection and response

Publicly accessible weather radar data have significant capabilities for meteorological measurements and predictions and, further, have the potential to measure nonmeteorological events that include smoke, ash, and debris plumes as well as explosions. The ability to identify and track nonmeteorological events can be of assistance in emergency response, hazard mitigation, and related activities in locations where radar coverage both exists and is recorded and accessible to the user. Here, in this study, events from multiple locations in the United States that are reported in news outlets are assessed using a manual inspection process of Level 2 weather radar data to identify anthropogenic and nonbiological returns. Explosive events are also identified, and a large high-altitude debris cloud from the intentional destruction of the SpaceX Starship is tracked across a wide area. Finally, future efforts using a machine learning model are discussed as a means of automating the process and potentially enabling near-real-time nonmeteorological event identification in the same areas where the data are accessible. Using weather radar data can be a valuable new tool for Department of Defense systems to aid in military awareness, and for interagency emergency response and forensic mission experts to consider national weather service data in their mission profiles. Radar data can be effective in detecting several common types of emergencies and inform and aid response personnel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Data Fusion Between Waveform Events and Radionuclide Detections Reported in 2021 by the International Data Centre

During this project, we assessed the percentage of events reported by the International Data Centre (IDC) that are candidates for evaluation using data fusion methods. We calculated the percentage of waveform (seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, SHI) events that may be associated with radionuclide (RN) detections and vice versa. For this task, data fusion means identifying RN detections that may be associated with SHI events. The task of producing a fused SHI and RN bulletin is included in the IDC operational manual. As of 2022, the production of a fused event bulletin remains incomplete, largely because methods for producing the bulletin are under development. Nonetheless, simple methods for data fusion have been developed and preliminary software tools are available at the IDC to associate SHI events and RN detections. This report is a first look at the percentage of SHI events that may be candidates for fusion with RN detections or bulletins. One year of IDC bulletin data (2021) is considered in this report. It is important to note that there were no known nuclear explosions during this time period. Hence, we expect that events during this time period would generate SHI and RN signals. If many SHI events are candidates for fusion with RN data, greater priority should be placed on establishing screening procedures before and/or during the fusion process. By contrast, if the number of candidate events is diminishingly small, then data fusion is not a driver for further development of event or detection screening at the IDC. LLNL reviewed the events reported in the Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and determined which events are candidates for fusion with the Reviewed Radionuclide Reports (RRR). Much of the work involves establishing a metric or metrics for determining whether a Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) event is a candidate for data fusion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nothing to see here: failed supernovae are faint or rare

ABSTRACT The absence of Type IIP core-collapse supernovae arising from progenitors above 17 solar masses suggests the existence of another evolutionary path by which massive stars end their lives. The direct collapse of a stellar core to a black hole without the production of a bright, explosive transient is expected to produce a long-lived, dim, red transient known as a failed supernova. Despite the detection of a number of candidates for disappearing massive stars in recent years, conclusive observational evidence for failed supernovae remains elusive. A custom-built pipeline designed for the detection of faint transients is used to re-analyse 10 yr of observations of 231 nearby galaxies from the PTF/ZTF surveys. This analysis recovers known supernovae, and yields a number of interesting transients. However, none of these are consistent with a failed supernova. Through Monte Carlo tests the recovery efficiency of our pipeline is quantified. By assuming failed supernovae occur as a Poissonian process with zero detections in the data set, 95 per cent upper limits to the rate of failed supernovae are calculated as a function of failed supernova absolute magnitude. We estimate failed supernovae to be less than 0.61, 0.33, 0.26, or 0.23 of the core-collapse SN rate for absolute magnitudes of −11, −12, −13, and −14, respectively. Finally, we show that if they exist, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will find 1.7–3.7 failed SNe per year for an absolute bolometric luminosity of ∼6 × 1039 erg s−1 out to distances of 33–43 Mpc, depending on their assumed spectral energy distribution.

Byrne, R. A. (ORCID:0000000177661737)↗
DOE OSTI2021

r-Process Radioisotopes from Near-Earth Supernovae and Kilonovae

The astrophysical sites where r-process elements are synthesized remain mysterious: it is clear that neutron star mergers (kilonovae (KNe)) contribute, and some classes of core-collapse supernovae (SNe) are also possible sources of at least the lighter r-process species. The discovery of 60Fe on the Earth and Moon implies that one or more astrophysical explosions have occurred near the Earth within the last few million years, probably SNe. Intriguingly, 244 Pu has now been detected, mostly overlapping with 60 Fe pulses. However, the 244 Pu flux may extend to before 12 Myr ago, pointing to a different origin. Here, motivated by these observations and difficulties for r-process nucleosynthesis in SN models, we propose that ejecta from a KN enriched the giant molecular cloud that gave rise to the Local Bubble, where the Sun resides. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) measurements of 244 Pu and searches for other live isotopes could probe the origins of the r-process and the history of the solar neighborhood, including triggers for mass extinctions, e.g., that at the end of the Devonian epoch, motivating the calculations of the abundances of live r-process radioisotopes produced in SNe and KNe that we present here. Given the presence of 244 Pu, other r-process species such as 93 Zr, 107 Pd, 129 I, 135 Cs, 182 Hf, 236 U, 237 Np, and 247 Cm should be present. Their abundances and well-resolved time histories could distinguish between the SN and KN scenarios, and we discuss prospects for their detection in deep-ocean deposits and the lunar regolith. We show that AMS 129 I measurements in Fe–Mn crusts already constrain a possible nearby KN scenario.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Core collapse supernova gravitational wave emission for progenitors of 9.6, 15, and 25 M ⊙

Here, we present gravitational wave emission predictions based on three core collapse supernova simulations corresponding to three different progenitor masses. The masses span a large range, between 9.6 and 25M ⊙ , are all initially nonrotating, and are of two metallicities: zero and solar. We compute both the temporal evolution of the gravitational wave strains for both the plus and the cross polarizations, as well as their spectral decomposition and characteristic strains. The temporal evolution of our zero metallicity 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model is distinct from the temporal evolution of our solar metallicity 15M ⊙ progenitor model and our zero metallicity 25M ⊙ progenitor model. In the former case, the high-frequency gravitational wave emission is largely confined to a brief time period ~75 ms after bounce, whereas in the latter two cases high-frequency emission does not commence until ~125 ms after bounce or later. The excitation mechanisms of the high-frequency emission in all three cases correspond to proto-neutron star convection and accretion onto the proto-neutron star from the convective gain layer above it, with the former playing the dominant role for most of the evolution. The low-frequency emission in all three models exhibits very similar behavior. At frequencies below ~250 Hz, gravitational waves are emitted by neutrino-driven convection and the standing accretion shock instability (SASI). This emission extends throughout the simulations when a gain region is present. In all three models, explosion is observed at ~125, ~500, and ~250 ms after bounce in the 9.6, 15, and 25M ⊙ progenitor models, respectively. At these times, the low-frequency gravitational wave emission is joined by very low-frequency emission, below ~10 Hz. These very low-frequency episodes are the result of explosion and begin at the above designated explosion times in each of our models. Our characteristic strains tell us that, in principle, all three gravitational wave signals would be detectable by current-generation detectors for a supernova at a distance of 10 kpc. However, our 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model is a significantly weaker source of gravitational waves, with strain amplitudes approximately 5–10 times less than in our other two models. The characteristic strain for this model tells us that such a supernova would be detectable only within a much more narrow frequency range around the maximum sensitivity of today’s detectors. Finally, in our 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model, we see very high-frequency gravitational radiation, extending up to ~2000 Hz. This feature results from the interaction of shock- and deleptonization-induced convection with perturbations introduced in the progenitor by nuclear burning during core collapse. While unique to the 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model analyzed here, this very high-frequency emission may, in fact, be a generic feature of the predictions for the gravitational wave emission from all core collapse supernova models when simulations are performed with three-dimensional progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Source Term Analysis of Xenon (STAX): An effort focused on differentiating man-made isotope production from nuclear explosions via stack monitoring

An overview of the hardware and software developed for the Source Term Analysis of Xenon (STAX) project is presented which includes the data collection from two stack monitoring systems installed at medical isotope production facilities, infrastructure to transfer data to a central repository, and methods for sharing data from the repository with users. STAX is an experiment to collect radioxenon emission data from industrial nuclear facilities with the goal of developing a better understanding of the global radioxenon background and the effect industrial radioxenon releases have on nuclear explosion monitoring. The final goal of this work is to utilize collected data along with atmospheric transport modeling to calculate the contribution of a peak or set of peaks detected by the International Monitoring System (IMS) to provide desired discriminating information to the International Data Centre (IDC) and National Data Centers (NDCs). Types of data received from the STAX equipment are shown and collected data was used for a case study to predict radioxenon concentrations at two IMS stations closest to the Institute for RadioElements (IRE) in Belgium. The initial evaluation of results indicate that the data is very valuable to the nuclear explosion monitoring community.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

New method for detecting fast neutrino flavor conversions in core-collapse supernova models with two-moment neutrino transport

Fast-pairwise neutrino oscillations potentially affect many aspects of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe): the explosion mechanism, neutrino signals, and nucleosynthesis in the ejecta. This particular mode of collective neutrino oscillations has a deep connection to the angular structure of neutrinos in momentum space; for instance, the appearance of electron-neutrino lepton number (ELN) angular crossings in momentum space is a good indicator of the occurrence of flavor conversions. However, many multidimensional CCSN simulations are carried out with approximate neutrino transport (such as two-moment methods), which limits access to the angular distributions of neutrinos, i.e., inhibits ELNcrossing searches. In this paper, we develop a new method of searching for ELN crossing in these CCSN simulations. The required data is the zeroth and first angular moments of neutrinos and the matter profile, all of which are available in CCSN models with the two-moment method. One of the novelties of our new method is the use of a ray-tracing neutrino transport to determine ELNs in the direction of the stellar center. It is designed to compensate for shortcomings of the crossing searches with only two angular moments. We assess the capability of the method by carrying out a detailed comparison with results of full Boltzmann neutrino transport in 1D and 2D CCSN models. In this work, we find that the ray-tracing neutrino transport improves the accuracy of crossing searches; indeed, the appearance/disappearance of the crossings is accurately detected even in the region of forward-peaked angular distributions. The new method is computationally cheap and has the benefit of efficient parallelization; hence, it will be useful for ELN-crossing searches in any CCSN models that employ two-moment neutrino transport.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report on the sensitivity kernel construction and updating the SPiRaL model with waveform data

The WAVEFORMS Initiative in the Ground-based Nuclear Detonation Detection (GNDD) program includes research leading towards the prediction of entire seismic and acoustic waveforms produced by natural and manmade events, including explosions. A key aspect of this research is the development of Earth (seismic) models at multiple scales including crustal, regional, and global. The work described here pertains to the global-scale seismic tomography effort led by LLNL.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the Directionality of Gravitational Wave Emission from Matter Motions within Core-collapse Supernovae

Abstract We analyze the directional dependence of the gravitational wave (GW) emission from 15 3D neutrino radiation hydrodynamic simulations of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). Using spin weighted spherical harmonics, we develop a new analytic technique to quantify the evolution of the distribution of GW emission over all angles. We construct a physics-informed toy model that can be used to approximate GW distributions for general ellipsoid-like systems, and use it to provide closed form expressions for the distribution of GWs for different CCSN phases. Using these toy models, we approximate the protoneutron star (PNS) dynamics during multiple CCSN stages and obtain similar GW distributions to simulation outputs. When considering all viewing angles, we apply this new technique to quantify the evolution of preferred directions of GW emission. For nonrotating cases, this dominant viewing angle drifts isotropically throughout the supernova, set by the dynamical timescale of the PNS. For rotating cases, during core bounce and the following tens of milliseconds, the strongest GW signal is observed along the equator. During the accretion phase, comparable—if not stronger—GW amplitudes are generated along the axis of rotation, which can be enhanced by the low T /∣ W ∣ instability. We show two dominant factors influencing the directionality of GW emission are the degree of initial rotation and explosion morphology. Lastly, looking forward, we note the sensitive interplay between GW detector site and supernova orientation, along with its effect on detecting individual polarization modes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Surface Phenomena Created by Underground Chemical Explosions in Dry Alluvium and Granite Geology From Fully Polarimetric VideoSAR Data

Phase I of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series involved six underground chemical explosions, all of which were conducted at the same experimental pad. Research from the sixth explosion of the series (SPE-6) demonstrated that polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) is a viable technology for monitoring an underground chemical explosion when the geologic structure is Cretaceous granitic intrusive. It was shown that a durable signal is measurable by the H/A/α polarimetric decomposition parameters. After the SPE-6 experiment, the SPE program moved to the Phase II location, which is composed of dry alluvium geology (DAG). The loss of wavefront energy is greater through dry alluvium than through granite. In this article, we compare the SPE-6 analysis to the second DAG (DAG-2) experiment. We hypothesize that despite the geology at the DAG site being more challenging than at the Phase I location, combined with the DAG-2 experiment having a 3.37 times deeper scaled depth of burial than the SPE-6, a durable nonprompt signal is still measurable by a PolSAR sensor. We compare the PolSAR time-series measures from videoSAR frames, from the SPE-6 and DAG-2 experiments, with accelerometer data. We show which PolSAR measures are invariant to the two types of geology and which are geology dependent. We compare a coherent change detection (CCD) map from the DAG-2 experiment with the data from a fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensor to show the connection between the spatial extent of coherence loss in CCD maps and spallation caused by the explosion. Finally, we also analyze the spatial extent of the PolSAR measures from both explosions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bosenovae with quadratically-coupled scalars in quantum sensing experiments

Abstract Ultralight dark matter (ULDM) particles of massm ϕ ≲ 1 eV can form boson stars in DM halos. Collapse of boson stars leads to explosive bosenova emission of copious relativistic ULDM particles. In this work, we analyze the sensitivity of terrestrial and space-based experiments to detect such relativistic scalar ULDM particles interacting through quadratic couplings with Standard Model constituents, including electrons, photons, and gluons. We highlight key differences with searches for linear ULDM couplings. Screening of ULDM with quadratic couplings near the surface of the Earth can significantly impact observations in terrestrial experiments, motivating future space-based experiments. We demonstrate excellent ULDM discovery prospects, especially for quantum sensors, which can probe quadratic couplings orders below existing constraints by detecting bosenova events in the ULDM mass range 10 −23 eV ≲m ϕ ≲ 10 −5 eV. We also report updated constraints on quadratic couplings of ULDM in case it comprises cold DM.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supernova Shock Breakout/Emergence Detection Predictions for a Wide-field X-Ray Survey

There are currently many large-field surveys that are operational and are being planned including the powerful Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time. These surveys will increase the number and diversity of transients dramatically. However, for some transients, like supernovae (SNe), we can gain more understanding by directed observations (e.g., shock breakout and γ-ray detections) than by simply increasing the sample size. For example, the initial emission from these transients can be a powerful probe of these explosions. Upcoming ground-based detectors are not ideally suited to observing the initial emission (shock emergence) of these transients. These observations require a large field-of-view X-ray mission with a UV follow-up within the first hour of shock breakout. The emission in the first 1 hr to even 1 day provides strong constraints on the stellar radius and asymmetries in the outer layers of stars, the properties of the circumstellar medium (e.g., inhomogeneities in the wind for core-collapse SNe and accreting companions in thermonuclear SNe), and the transition region between these two areas. This paper describes a simulation for the number of SNe that could be seen by a large field-of-view lobster-eye X-ray and UV observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗