An Explanation for Arecibo Plasma Line Power Striations
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William J. Longley↗
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Results for “Explanability”
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Communications and tracking expert systems study
The original objectives of the study consisted of five broad areas of investigation: criteria and issues for explanation of communication and tracking system anomaly detection, isolation, and recovery; data storage simplification issues for fault detection expert systems; data selection procedures for decision tree pruning and optimization to enhance the abstraction of pertinent information for clear explanation; criteria for establishing levels of explanation suited to needs; and analysis of expert system interaction and modularization. Progress was made in all areas, but to a lesser extent in the criteria for establishing levels of explanation suited to needs. Among the types of expert systems studied were those related to anomaly or fault detection, isolation, and recovery.
Leibfried, T. F.↗
The transition from diapirism to dike intrusion: Implications for planetary volcanism
Magma transport processes influence the rate of magma transport and how far the magma travels before it freezes, the degree to which the magma communicates chemically with the host rock, the morphology of volcanic landforms on planetary surfaces, the interplay between magmatism and regional tectonics, and even the direction the magma moves. The primary question motivating this research is: How does magma rheology influence the mechanisms by which it is transported through planetary lithospheres? It is widely recognized that on Earth basaltic intrusions typically take the form of narrow dikes, while granites are typically found in more equidimensional plutons. Several explanations for this observation were offered over the last 50 years. While basalts and rhyolites vary somewhat in temperature and density, the major difference is the 2 to 8 orders of magnitude contrast in viscosity. The significant ductile strains associated with many granitic plutons has led to the statement that the occurrence of granites in diapirs rather than dikes results from the fact that there is insufficient viscosity contrast between the magma and wall rock for the granite to intrude narrow cracks. A second explanation states that granites are so viscous that they cannot propagate far before freezing. Despite the length of time these explanations have been around, there has been relatively little effort to investigate them quantitatively. My goal has been to evaluate these explanations through a series of well-posed numerical models. These models can be tested by the decades of field data collected by structural geologists that have yet to be integrated into any coherent theory, and the results should have important implications for volcanism on the terrestrial planets.
Rubin, Allan M.↗
Formal Safety Certification of Aerospace Software
In principle, formal methods offer many advantages for aerospace software development: they can help to achieve ultra-high reliability, and they can be used to provide evidence of the reliability claims which can then be subjected to external scrutiny. However, despite years of research and many advances in the underlying formalisms of specification, semantics, and logic, formal methods are not much used in practice. In our opinion this is related to three major shortcomings. First, the application of formal methods is still expensive because they are labor- and knowledge-intensive. Second, they are difficult to scale up to complex systems because they are based on deep mathematical insights about the behavior of the systems (t.e., they rely on the "heroic proof"). Third, the proofs can be difficult to interpret, and typically stand in isolation from the original code. In this paper, we describe a tool for formally demonstrating safety-relevant aspects of aerospace software, which largely circumvents these problems. We focus on safely properties because it has been observed that safety violations such as out-of-bounds memory accesses or use of uninitialized variables constitute the majority of the errors found in the aerospace domain. In our approach, safety means that the program will not violate a set of rules that can range for the simple memory access rules to high-level flight rules. These different safety properties are formalized as different safety policies in Hoare logic, which are then used by a verification condition generator along with the code and logical annotations in order to derive formal safety conditions; these are then proven using an automated theorem prover. Our certification system is currently integrated into a model-based code generation toolset that generates the annotations together with the code. However, this automated formal certification technology is not exclusively constrained to our code generator and could, in principle, also be integrated with other code generators such as RealTime Workshop or even applied to legacy code. Our approach circumvents the historical problems with formal methods by increasing the degree of automation on all levels. The restriction to safety policies (as opposed to arbitrary functional behavior) results in simpler proof problems that can generally be solved by fully automatic theorem proves. An automated linking mechanism between the safety conditions and the code provides some of the traceability mandated by process standards such as DO-178B. An automated explanation mechanism uses semantic markup added by the verification condition generator to produce natural-language explanations of the safety conditions and thus supports their interpretation in relation to the code. It shows an automatically generated certification browser that lets users inspect the (generated) code along with the safety conditions (including textual explanations), and uses hyperlinks to automate tracing between the two levels. Here, the explanations reflect the logical structure of the safety obligation but the mechanism can in principle be customized using different sets of domain concepts. The interface also provides some limited control over the certification process itself. Our long-term goal is a seamless integration of certification, code generation, and manual coding that results in a "certified pipeline" in which specifications are automatically transformed into executable code, together with the supporting artifacts necessary for achieving and demonstrating the high level of assurance needed in the aerospace domain.
Denney, Ewen↗
Explaining Verification Conditions
The Hoare approach to program verification relies on the construction and discharge of verification conditions (VCs) but offers no support to trace, analyze, and understand the VCs themselves. We describe a systematic extension of the Hoare rules by labels so that the calculus itself can be used to build up explanations of the VCs. The labels are maintained through the different processing steps and rendered as natural language explanations. The explanations can easily be customized and can capture different aspects of the VCs; here, we focus on their structure and purpose. The approach is fully declarative and the generated explanations are based only on an analysis of the labels rather than directly on the logical meaning of the underlying VCs or their proofs. Keywords: program verification, Hoare calculus, traceability.
Deney, Ewen↗
The Scaling of Broadband Shock-Associated Noise with Increasing Temperature
A physical explanation for the saturation of broadband shock-associated noise (BBSAN) intensity with increasing jet stagnation temperature has eluded investigators. An explanation is proposed for this phenomenon with the use of an acoustic analogy. For this purpose the acoustic analogy of Morris and Miller is examined. To isolate the relevant physics, the scaling of BBSAN at the peak intensity level at the sideline ( = 90 degrees) observer location is examined. Scaling terms are isolated from the acoustic analogy and the result is compared using a convergent nozzle with the experiments of Bridges and Brown and using a convergent-divergent nozzle with the experiments of Kuo, McLaughlin, and Morris at four nozzle pressure ratios in increments of total temperature ratios from one to four. The equivalent source within the framework of the acoustic analogy for BBSAN is based on local field quantities at shock wave shear layer interactions. The equivalent source combined with accurate calculations of the propagation of sound through the jet shear layer, using an adjoint vector Green s function solver of the linearized Euler equations, allows for predictions that retain the scaling with respect to stagnation pressure and allows for the accurate saturation of BBSAN with increasing stagnation temperature. This is a minor change to the source model relative to the previously developed models. The full development of the scaling term is shown. The sources and vector Green s function solver are informed by steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solutions. These solutions are examined as a function of stagnation temperature at the first shock wave shear layer interaction. It is discovered that saturation of BBSAN with increasing jet stagnation temperature occurs due to a balance between the amplification of the sound propagation through the shear layer and the source term scaling.A physical explanation for the saturation of broadband shock-associated noise (BBSAN) intensity with increasing jet stagnation temperature has eluded investigators. An explanation is proposed for this phenomenon with the use of an acoustic analogy. For this purpose the acoustic analogy of Morris and Miller is examined. To isolate the relevant physics, the scaling of BBSAN at the peak intensity level at the sideline psi = 90 degrees) observer location is examined. Scaling terms are isolated from the acoustic analogy and the result is compared using a convergent nozzle with the experiments of Bridges and Brown and using a convergent-divergent nozzle with the experiments of Kuo, McLaughlin, and Morris at four nozzle pressure ratios in increments of total temperature ratios from one to four. The equivalent source within the framework of the acoustic analogy for BBSAN is based on local field quantities at shock wave shear layer interactions. The equivalent source combined with accurate calculations of the propagation of sound through the jet shear layer, using an adjoint vector Green s function solver of the linearized Euler equations, allows for predictions that retain the scaling with respect to stagnation pressure and allows for the accurate saturation of BBSAN with increasing stagnation temperature. This is a minor change to the source model relative to the previously developed models. The full development of the scaling term is shown. The sources and vector Green s function solver are informed by steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solutions. These solutions are examined as a function of stagnation temperature at the first shock wave shear layer interaction. It is discovered that saturation of BBSAN with increasing jet stagnation temperature occurs due to a balance between the amplification of the sound propagation through the shear layer and the source term scaling.
Miller, Steven A.↗
Improving Trust in Deep Neural Networks with Nearest Neighbors
Deep neural networks are used increasingly for perception and decision-making in UAVs. For example, they can be used to recognize objects from images and decide what actions the vehicle should take. While deep neural networks can perform very well at complex tasks, their decisions may be unintuitive to a human operator. When a human disagrees with a neural network prediction, due to the black box nature of deep neural networks, it can be unclear whether the system knows something the human does not or whether the system is malfunctioning. This uncertainty is problematic when it comes to ensuring safety. As a result, it is important to develop technologies for explaining neural network decisions for trust and safety. This paper explores a modification to the deep neural network classification layer to produce both a predicted label and an explanation to support its prediction. Specifically, at test time, we replace the final output layer of the neural network classifier by a k-nearest neighbor classifier. The nearest neighbor classifier produces 1) a predicted label through voting and 2) the nearest neighbors involved in the prediction, which represent the most similar examples from the training dataset. Because prediction and explanation are derived from the same underlying process, this approach guarantees that the explanations are always relevant to the predictions. We demonstrate the approach on a convolutional neural network for a UAV image classification task. We perform experiments using a forest trail image dataset and show empirically that the hybrid classifier can produce intuitive explanations without loss of predictive performance compared to the original neural network. We also show how the approach can be used to help identify potential issues in the network and training process.
Lee, Ritchie↗
Plan-Property Dependencies are Useful: A User Study
The trade-offs between different desirable plan properties –e. g. PDDL temporal plan preferences – are often difficult to understand. Recent work proposes to address this by iterative planning with explanations elucidating the dependencies between such plan properties. Users can ask questions of the form “Why does the plan you suggest not satisfy property p?”, which are answered by “Because then we would have to forego q” where ¬q is entailed by p in plan space. It has been shown that such plan-property dependencies can be computed reasonably efficiently. But is this form of explanation actually useful for users? We contribute a user study evaluating that question. We design use cases from three domains and run a large user study (N= 40 for each domain, ca. 40 minutes work time per user and domain) on the internet platform Prolific. Comparing users with vs. without access to the explanations, we find that the explanations tend to enable users to identify better trade-offs between the plan properties, indicating an improved understanding of the task.
Explainable Planning↗
Variability of plasma-line enhancement in ionospheric modification experiments.
A simple explanation for the variations of plasma-line intensity is suggested. The explanation is based on the fact that the plasma waves responsible for scattering the radar waves occur over a very limited range of heights. The explanation further makes use of the fact that the position of these height ranges of generation depends primarily on the gradient of the number density and to a lesser extent on the temperature and the orientation of the diagnostic radar beam.
Fejer, J. A.↗
de Sitter's theory 'melts' Europa's polar cap
In photoelectric observations of a series of occultations of the Jovian satellite Europa by the Jovian satellite Io it was observed that increasingly larger fractions of the north polar region of the former were covered at mid-event with each successive occultation. One of the possible explanations of the observed phenomena involves the existence of a bright north polar cap for Europa. The reported investigation shows that a second explanation may be more plausible. This explanation is related to the possibility that at mid-event the projected minimum distance between the centers of the satellites was smaller than predicted by Sampson's theory.
Aksnes, K.↗
Static stability and thermal wind in an atmosphere of variable composition Applications to Mars
Radiometric measurements of the temperature of the south polar cap of Mars in winter have yielded values significantly below the expected 148 K. One proposed explanation for this result is a substantial reduction in the CO2 content of the atmosphere and a lowering of the mean molecule weight near the surface. The meteorological consequences of this explanation are explored by deriving a criterion for vertical static stability and a thermal wind law for an atmosphere of variable composition. The atmosphere proves to be statically unstable unless the anomaly in the CO2 mixing ratio extends to heights of tens of kilometers. The effect of varying molecular weight exceeds the effect of temperature gradient, producing shears with height of reversed sign. The shears are baroclinically unstable, and this instability would eradicate the latitudinal gradient of molecular weight. This inconsistency can be resolved by invoking a reasonable elevation of the central polar cap and by imposing an adequate zonal wind. It is concluded that if the explanation requiring a change in atmospheric composition is correct, it must be accompanied by other special circumstances to make it meteorologically consistent.
Hess, S. L.↗
HCMM: Soil moisture in relation to geologic structure and lithology, northern California
The author has identified the following significant results. Detailed examination of Nite-IR images of intermontane basins in arid and/or semiarid areas of California discloses a ring or halo of relatively lighter greytone around the edges of each basin. Intermontane basins in the Northern Coast Range, however, do not show this thermal haloing. The topographic elevation of the haloes in arid basins shows seasonal variation, but it is present on nearly all images. A similar halo encircles many of the volcanoes on the Modoc Plateau and Southern Cascade Range. Although the halo around the arid intermontane basins can possibly be explained in relation to the location of alluvial fans (and perhaps water content of the rocks), a similar explanation cannot be made for the haloes around volcanoes or for the lack of haloes around basins in the Coast Range. Atmospheric thermal layering may be an alternative explanation; however, this explanation is also riddled with inconsistencies.
Rich, E. I.↗
Narrow components in the profiles of ultraviolet resonance lines - Evidence for a two-component stellar wind for O and B stars
The presence of narrow, shifted absorption features superposed on the wide P Cygni profiles of the UV resonance lines in the spectra of O and B stars is studied and possible explanations of the narrow components are discussed. Spectra from 26 stars of spectral types O4f to B1 Ib were examined for the presence of narrow components in the absorption part of the profiles, and positive evidence was detected in 17. The central velocities of the features are found to be similar for different ions of the same star, and typically equal to 0.75 times the terminal velocity of the stellar wind. The width of the narrow absorptions is about 18% of the terminal stellar wind velocity, with a column density generally not correlated with the effective temperature or mass loss rate. Possible explanations for the narrow components include peaks in the degree of ionization, a stationary stellar shell, a plateau in the stellar wind velocity law, a decelerating stellar wind, a variable mass loss rate or a two component stellar wind with low-velocity, low-density material found at a distance greater than 2 stellar radii, which explanation appears most likely.
Lamers, H. J. G. L. M.↗
Crew Communication as a Factor in Aviation Accidents
The crew communication process is analyzed. Planning and explanation are shown to be well-structured discourse types, described by formal rules. These formal rules are integrated with those describing the other most important discourse type within the cockpit: the command-and-control speech act chain. The latter is described as a sequence of speech acts for making requests (including orders and suggestions), for making reports, for supporting or challenging statements, and for acknowledging previous speech acts. Mitigation level, a linguistic indication of indirectness and tentativeness in speech, was an important variable in several hypotheses, i.e., the speech of subordinates is more mitigated than the speech of superiors, the speech of all crewmembers is less mitigated when they know that they are in either a problem or emergency situation, and mitigation is a factor in failures of crewmembers to initiate discussion of new topics or have suggestions ratified by the captain. Test results also show that planning and explanation are more frequently performed by captains, are done more during crew- recognized problems, and are done less during crew-recognized emergencies. The test results also indicated that planning and explanation are more frequently performed by captains than by other crewmembers, are done more during crew-recognized problems, and are done less during-recognized emergencies.
Goguen, J.↗
On the Holmberg asymmetry of the satellites of disk galaxies
A tidal explanation for the observation by Holmberg that the satellites of edge-on disk galaxies tend to avoid the sector within + or - 30 deg of the major axes of the disk galaxies is considered. It is shown that satellites with small orbit-to-disk inclinations are likely to become compact and consequently be left out in Holmberg's survey due to the resemblance to stars. The explanation is supported by the observation of an excess of compact galaxies near the major-axis direction of edge-on disk galaxies. The disk tidal explanation also predicts that the asymmetry should be weaker with larger satellites. It is found that the Karachentsev (1972, 1980) binary galaxy sample, where the typical companion is comparable to the primary galaxy, shows no Holmberg effect. The case of M32 as a compact satellite of the Andromeda galaxy is discussed as a nearby observationally supported example of the above processes.
Byrd, Gene G.↗
Knowledge representation issues for explaining plans
Explanations are recognized as an important facet of intelligent behavior. Unfortunately, expert systems are currently limited in their ability to provide useful, intelligent justifications of their results. We are currently investigating the issues involved in providing explanation facilities for expert planning systems. This investigation addresses three issues: knowledge content, knowledge representation, and explanation structure.
Prince, Mary Ellen↗
Pluto's structure and composition suggest origin in the solar, not a planetary, nebula
The four explanations for Pluto's large rock/ice ratio, (1) formation in the inner solar system, (2) volatile loss during accretion, (3) volatile loss during the large-body impact that created Charon, and (4) formation as a large, ice-poor outer solar system planetesimal, are considered. It is shown that only the last two explanations are feasible, and that the depletion of water ice in Pluto is so severe that both explanations may be necessary.
Mckinnon, William B.↗
High resolution infrared astronomy satellite observations of a selected spiral galaxy
The H I, infrared, CO, H alpha and H beta band observations of M51, the prototypical grand-design spiral galaxy, are used to study the consequences of star formation for the distribution of H I and dust. Using the new Very Large Array (VLA) map of 21 cm emission, the Owens Valley Radio Observatory CO mosaic map, and an H alpha imate, new tests were performed with the idea of Tilanus and Allen that the H I is largely a photodissociation product in star-forming regions. It is confirmed that the H I spiral arms are generally coincident with the H II region arms, and offset downstream from the CO arms. The radial distributions of total gas, H alpha and H I surface density have a simple explanation in the dissociation picture. The distributions also demonstrate how the surface density of H I might be related to the star formation efficiency in molecule-rich galaxies. The large width of the H I regions along the arms compared to that of the giant H II regions can be understood in terms of a simple calculation of the expected size of an H I region associated with a typical giant H II region. The longer lifetime of the stars producing dissociating radiation vs. those producing ionizing radiation and the relatively long molecular formation timescale will also contribute to the greater width of the H I arms if stars are continuously forming on the arms. The lack of detailed coincidence of the H I and H II regions along the inner arms has a variety of possible explanations. Two simple tests were performed to probe the origins of the IRAS emission in M51. First, it was found that the infrared excess (IFE) of M51 is 24, suggesting that a substantial fraction of the infrared emission arises from dust heated by photons which do not originate in massive star-formaing regions. Second, radial cuts through the IRAS bands show that at 12, 25, and 60 microns, the arm-interarm contrast of the IRAS emission is substantially less than that of the H alpha emission, providing further evidence for the explanation and for the existence of a broadly distributed dust component. Deconvolved IRAS maps have improved resolution but do not change this finding.
Kulkarni, S. R.↗