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NASA NTRS2000

Fluid Physics and Macromolecular Crystal Growth in Microgravity

The first protein crystallization experiment in microgravity was launched in April, 1981 and used Germany's Technologische Experimente unter Schwerelosigkeit (TEXUS 3) sounding rocket. The protein P-galactosidase (molecular weight 465Kda) was chosen as the sample with a liquid-liquid diffusion growth method. A sliding device brought the protein, buffer and salt solution into contact when microgravity was reached. The sounding rocket gave six minutes of microgravity time with a cine camera and schlieren optics used to monitor the experiment, a single growth cell. In microgravity a strictly laminar diffusion process was observed in contrast to the turbulent convection seen on the ground. Several single crystals, approx 100micron in length, were formed in the flight which were of inferior but of comparable visual quality to those grown on the ground over several days. A second experiment using the same protocol but with solutions cooled to -8C (kept liquid with glycerol antifreeze) again showed laminar diffusion. The science of macromolecular structural crystallography involves crystallization of the macromolecule followed by use of the crystal for X-ray diffraction experiments to determine the three dimensional structure of the macromolecule. Neutron protein crystallography is employed for elucidation of H/D exchange and for improved definition of the bound solvent (D20). The structural information enables an understanding of how the molecule functions with important potential for rational drug design, improved efficiency of industrial enzymes and agricultural chemical development. The removal of turbulent convection and sedimentation in microgravity, and the assumption that higher quality crystals will be produced, has given rise to the growing number of crystallization experiments now flown. Many experiments can be flown in a small volume with simple, largely automated, equipment - an ideal combination for a microgravity experiment. The term "protein crystal growth" is often historically used to describe these microgravity experiments. This is somewhat inaccurate as the field involves the study of many varied biological molecules including viruses, proteins, DNA, RNA and complexes of those structures. For this reason we use the term macromolecular crystal growth. In this chapter we review a series of diagnostic microgravity crystal growth experiments carried out principally using the European Space Agency (ESA) Advanced Protein Crystallization Facility (APCF). We also review related research, both experimental and theoretical, on the aspects of microgravity fluid physics that affect microgravity protein crystal growth. Our experiments have revealed some surprises that were not initially expected. We discuss them here in the context of practical lessons learnt and how to maximize the limited microgravity opportunities available.

Helliwell, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Dynamics of Galaxy Clusters and Expectations from Astro-H

Galaxy clusters span a range of dynamical states, from violent mergers -- the most energetic events in the Universe -- to systems near hydrostatic equilibrium that allow us to map their dark matter distribution using X-ray observations of the intracluster gas. Accurate knowledge of the cluster physics, and in particular, the physics of the hot intracluster gas, is required to realize the full potential of clusters as cosmological probes. So far, we have been studying the cluster dynamics indirectly, deducing merger geometries, cluster masses, etc., using X-ray brightness and gas temperature mapping. For the first time, the calorimeter onboard Astro-H will provide direct measurements of line-of-sight velocities and turbulent broadening in the intracluster gas, testing many of our key assumptions about clusters. This talk will summarize expectations for cluster dynamic studies with this new instrument.

Markevitch, Maxim↗
NASA NTRS2021

Romie: A Domain-Independent Tool for Computer-Aided Robust Operations Management

Romie is a decision support tool based on AI's latest advances in the domain of robust scheduling. Unlike all its predecessors, the tool allows to (i) visually model the operational problem and context entirely (ii) optimize to find near-optimal schedules while taking uncertainty into account and deals with (iii) a combination of various {key performance indicators (KPIs). It comes with a web user interface. Part or all of the modelled activities may be associated to random variables describing their stochastic durations, in order to produce schedules that are robust w.r.t. temporal uncertainty. Hence, depending on the pursued KPIs, the schedules maximize a combination of the following terms: the probability of satisfying the problem constraints, the expected return/efficiency, the expected outcome quality, and even the operators' wellness by minimizing its expected extra-hours. Initially developed for spatial exploration and demonstration in the context of Mars analog missions, this versatile tool is here applied to operations management in both biotechnology manufacturing and robots parametrization in a cave exploration context.

Chien, Steve A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of Scaled-Production of Rare Earth Oxides and Critical Materials from U. S. Coal-Based Sources (Final Report)

The project objective was to demonstrate scaled production of high purity rare earth oxides (REO), nominally exceeding 90% grade, from coal refuse sources using innovative technologies that reduce cost and improve environmental outcomes relative to traditional rare earth processing technologies. The project utilized a critical material pilot plant constructed and tested as part of a previous U.S. Department of Energy project. Target performance criteria was a 50% reduction in production cost based on previous optimum values, 150% increase in recovery and greater than 2% concentrates of rare earth oxides, cobalt and manganese. Concentrate production goals were to produce a rare earth mix oxide product at a rate of 200 grams per day having a minimum purity of 50% as well as products of cobalt and manganese having a minimum purity of 2%. A previous pilot plant investigation identified acid cost as the major contributor to an operating cost that made the recovery of rare earth and other critical metals from bituminous coal sources economically challenging. As such, acid cost reduction was a major target using bio-oxidation reactors to produce sulfuric acid from naturally occurring coal pyrite. Based on laboratory data, a bio-oxidation circuit was designed for the pilot plant to produce 7.5 l/min of acid using two 11-m3 (3000 gallon) reactors equipped with 40 hp aerators for air dispersion. The pilot-scale tests revealed that acid concentration equivalent to as high as 1.0 M sulfuric acid could be continuously produced. However, the bio-acid contained exceptionally high iron concentrations, which complicated downstream processing of the pregnant leach solution (PLS). A TEA of the bio-oxidation circuit showed that production cost was approximately $0.13 per kg acid equivalent if produced using a four-day retention time in the reactors. This value represents a 48% reduction from that of purchased bulk sulfuric acid. Calcination (or roasting) studies were conducted on coarse refuse from West Kentucky No. 13 and Fire Clay coal seam sources. The test results revealed the potential to increase recovery by nearly 100% using temperatures between 500°C to 700°C with light REE recovery value being the most improved. Acid baking of the calcined products using sulfuric acid at 250°C increased heavy rare earth recovery from around 40% to 80% while decreasing the acid requirements by over 50%. The existing pilot plant was upgraded for the pilot scale demonstration of REE and CM recovery. The primary feedstocks were West Kentucky No.13 and heap leach pregnant leach solution (PLS) while a secondary feedstock was a lignite waste material from a construction sand operation. The pilot scale operation started with PLS generation through leaching followed by iron and aluminum removal, nominally at 3.3 and 4.5 pH, respectively. Leaching lixiviants used for the test were industrial grade sulfuric acid or bio-acid generated at the pilot scale facility. For most of the tests, the solid feed rate was 200 lb/hr whereas lixiviant was added at 2 gpm to provide an optimal residence time of 45 minutes. Following the contaminant removal step, several different process schematics were tested with the goal of maximizing REE recovery and purity. In the first test, direct processing of aluminum precipitation raffinate for REE recovery using oxalic acid at pH 1.5 was investigated. Overall REE recovery was approximately 45%. Unfortunately, elevated calcium content in the PLS significantly impacted the RE-Oxide product grade. Similarly, high calcium content decreased both the product purity and grades of CM products. As such, a new flowsheet was tested with the same initial process schematic but different precipitation stages for REEs and CMs at pH 6.0 and 9.0, respectively. It was noted that the overlapping precipitation behavior of Co, Ni and Zn with REEs limited the applicability of this process schematic. While this change increased the RE-Oxide grade from 36% in the first test to 87%, the loss of critical metals to the REE cake and bypass of the REEs to the CM cake significantly impacted the recovery of both REEs and CMs. Therefore, the modified process flowsheet combined oxalic acid precipitation stage raffinate and redissolved CM cake filtrate to maximize both the recovery and purity of the products. Consequently, a RE-Oxide product with 85% purity and CM cakes with over 19% Co, 38% Ni, 14% Zn and 9% Mn content were generated with significantly higher recoveries. While the modified process flowsheet improved recoveries and grades, elemental losses observed in separate precipitation and redissolution losses inspired the adaptation of a single precipitation stage at pH 9.0 for both REEs and CMs. This change was anticipated to maximize the REE recovery while minimizing the costs associated with separated redissolution and processing stages. As expected, REE recovery in this new circuit arrangement was over 56% with a product grade of over 87% RE-Oxide content. Similarly, Co, Ni, Mn, and Zn recoveries of 54%, 40%, 67%, and 66%, respectively, were achieved. Unfortunately, the elevated calcium content present in the solution due to its precipitation at pH 9.0 caused a decrease in the CM cake quality. Therefore, the final process flowsheet involved the addition of calcium oxalate precipitation following the oxalic acid precipitation stage, which effectively eliminated calcium contamination of the CM products. Finally, the pilot scale experiments conducted using bio-acid achieved comparable REE leaching recoveries to the conventional sulfuric acid leaching. Elevated iron concentration in the solution caused the co-precipitation of REEs with the iron and aluminum cake, resulting in the REE losses. Furthermore, elevated iron content bypassing the iron and aluminum precipitation stages contaminated the metal sulfide and manganese cake, respectively. A techno-economic analysis was performed based on a commercial facility capable of treating 500 tph of coal-based material. The production cost for West Kentucky No. 13 coarse refuse material ranged from approximately $500-$700/kg of total rare earth oxide whereas the lignite source had significantly lower production cost of $100-$300/kg. The significant difference in cost was due to the easier leaching characteristics of the lignite material and the higher feed concentrations. All process scenarios resulted in a negative net present value (NPV). For the lignite feedstock, laboratory REE leach recovery values were about 30% higher than the pilot plant data. Using the lab leach results, a positive net present value was achieved and the production cost decreased from $100-$300 $/kg to less than $150/kg of total REO.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1990

Optimal sampling and sensitivity limits of integrating detector arrays in a space environment

The performance of integrating detectors with either destructive read-out or nondestructive direct read-out in a space environment subject to charge-particle and radiation hits was investigated by determining the optimal integration time for maximizing the performance in the presence of a given hit rate. The performance relative to that expected for background-limited performance was evaluated using a combination of analytic techniques and Monte Carlo simulations. Results are used to estimate the performance degradation, due to cosmic rays, of the long-wavelength spectrometer of the Space Infrared Telescope Facility. It was found that its performance may be a factor of 1-5 worse than the background limited performance.

Herter, T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unsupervised Resource Allocation with Graph Neural Networks

We present an approach for maximizing a global utility function by learning how to allocate resources in an unsupervised way. We expect interactions between allocation targets to be important and therefore propose to learn the reward structure for near-optimal allocation policies with a GNN. By relaxing the resource constraint, we can employ gradient-based optimization in contrast to more standard evolutionary algorithms. Our algorithm is motivated by a problem in modern astronomy, where one needs to select-based on limited initial information-among $10^9$ galaxies those whose detailed measurement will lead to optimal inference of the composition of the universe. Our technique presents a way of flexibly learning an allocation strategy by only requiring forward simulators for the physics of interest and the measurement process. We anticipate that our technique will also find applications in a range of resource allocation problems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: An Overview

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission that uses advanced precipitation radar with a constellation of passive microwave radiometers to improve the accuracy, sampling, and coverage of global precipitation measurements. It is a science mission with integrated applications goals focusing on (1) advancing the knowledge of the global watedenergy cycle variability and freshwater availability and (2) improving weather, climate, and hydrological prediction capabilities through more accurate and frequent measurements of global precipitation. The GPM Mission is currently a partnership between NASA and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with opportunities for additional domestic and international partners in satellite constellation buildup and ground validation activities. The GPM Core satellite, which carries a JAXA-provided dual-frequency precipitation radar and a NASAprovided microwave radiometers with high-frequency capabilities for light rain and frozen precipitation measurements, is expected to be launched in the 2010 timeframe. The GPM Core will serve as a precipitation physics laboratory and a calibration system for improved precipitation measurements by a heterogeneous constellation of dedicated and operational microwave radiometers. NASA also plans to provide a "wild card" constellation member with a copy of the radiometer carried on the GPM Core to be placed in an orbit that maximizes the coverage and sampling of the constellation. An overview of the GPM mission concept, instrument capabilities, ground validation plans, and the expected scientific and societal benefits will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variational approach to quantum state tomography based on maximal entropy formalism

Quantum state tomography is an integral part of quantum computation and offers the starting point for the validation of various quantum devices. One of the central tasks in the field of state tomography is to reconstruct, with high fidelity, the quantum states of a quantum system. From an experiment on a real quantum device, one can obtain the mean measurement values of different operators. With such data as input, in this report we employ the maximal entropy formalism to construct the least biased mixed quantum state that is consistent with the given set of expectation values. Even though, in principle, the reported formalism is quite general and should work for an arbitrary set of observables, in practice we shall demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm on an informationally complete (IC) set of Hermitian operators. Such a set possesses the advantage of uniquely specifying a single quantum state from which the experimental measurements have been sampled and hence renders the rare opportunity not only to construct a least-biased quantum state but even replicate the exact state prepared experimentally within a preset tolerance. Here, the primary workhorse of the algorithm is reconstructing an energy function which we designate as the effective Hamiltonian of the system, and parameterizing it with Lagrange multipliers, according to the formalism of maximal entropy. These parameters are thereafter optimized variationally so that the reconstructed quantum state of the system converges to the true quantum state within an error threshold. To this end, we employ a parameterized quantum circuit and a hybrid quantum-classical variational algorithm to obtain such a target state, making our recipe easily implementable on a near-term quantum device.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Optimization of Well Completions and Controls for CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery and Storage

CO 2 storage through CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is considered as one of the technologies to help promote larger scale deployment of CO 2 storage because of associated economic benefits through oil recovery, 45Q tax credits and the utilization of existing infrastructure. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how optimal reservoir management and operation strategies (including well completions and controls) can be used to optimize both CO 2 storage and oil recovery. The optimization problem was focused on jointly estimating the well completions (i.e., fraction of injection/production well perforations in each reservoir layer) and CO 2 injection/oil production controls that maximize the net present value (NPV) in a CO 2 EOR and storage operation. We utilized the newly developed StoSAG algorithm, one of the most efficient optimization algorithms in the reservoir management community, to solve the optimization problem. The performance of joint optimization approach was compared with the performance of well control only optimization approach. In addition, the performance of co-optimization of CO 2 storage and oil recovery approach was compared with the performances of maximization of only CO 2 storage and maximization of only oil recovery approaches. The optimization results showed that a joint optimization of well completions and well controls can achieve an 8.84% higher final NPV than the one obtained from the optimization of only well controls. It was observed that the NPV incremental for joint optimization is mainly due to the fact that the optimal well completions and controls approach results in efficient CO 2 storage and oil production from different reservoir layers depending on the differences in individual layer properties. Comparison of co-optimization (i.e., maximization of NPV) and maximization of only CO 2 storage or only oil recovery showed that the co-optimization and maximization of only oil recovery result in significantly higher final NPV than that obtained through maximization of only CO 2 storage approach while maximization of only CO 2 storage can achieve significantly higher CO 2 storage in the reservoir compared to the other two scenarios. The similar results for co-optimization and maximization of oil production are obtained because of the difference in oil revenue compared to CO 2 storage tax credit. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in oil/gas industry and CO 2 storage community to perform joint optimization of well completions and well controls in the fields. We expect that the proposed optimization framework will be a useful and efficient tool for field engineers to optimally manage CO 2 EOR projects to maximize revenue through oil recovery as well as CO 2 storage by taking advantage of the new 45Q tax law.

Artificial intelligence↗
NASA NTRS1993

Evaluating science return in space exploration initiative architectures

Science is an important aspect of the Space Exploration Initiative, a program to explore the Moon and Mars with people and machines. Different SEI mission architectures are evaluated on the basis of three variables: access (to the planet's surface), capability (including number of crew, equipment, and supporting infrastructure), and time (being the total number of man-hours available for scientific activities). This technique allows us to estimate the scientific return to be expected from different architectures and from different implementations of the same architecture. Our methodology allows us to maximize the scientific return from the initiative by illuminating the different emphases and returns that result from the alternative architectural decisions.

Budden, Nancy Ann↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for Non-resonant Higgs Boson Pair Production in the Four Bottom Quark Decay Channel With the CMS Experiment

This dissertation presents a search for non-resonant Higgs boson pair production, focusing on the four bottom quark decay channel. It explores the gluon fusion and vector boson fusion production mechanisms. The analysis is performed with a dataset of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of around 138 inverse femtobarns. Innovative techniques in the areas of object identification, event categorization, signal identification, and background modeling are used to maximize the analysis sensitivity. No excess of signal events are observed relative to the background-only expectation, and 95% CL upper limits on the production cross section are set. The observed upper limit on the standard model production cross section is set at 3.6 times the theoretical expectation. At the time of writing this dissertation, it is the most stringent constraint at the LHC from an individual channel. Furthermore, the observed constraint on the coupling modifier of the Higgs boson self-interaction is set between -2.3 and 9.4. The observed constraint on the coupling modifier of the di-vector-boson-di-Higgs-boson interaction is set between -0.1 and 2.2.

Guerrero Ibarra, Guerrero Fernando↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Anoxic Iron Corrosion on WIPP Brine Geochemistry FY23 Final Report (U)

A 280-day study was completed to evaluate the effect of zero-valent iron (Fe 0 ) on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) brine geochemistry under anticipated reducing conditions. Hydrogen (H 2 ) gas is expected to be present in the repository after closure due to the anoxic corrosion of a vast quantity of iron contained in the waste forms disposed at WIPP; therefore, a background argon atmosphere containing H 2 was chosen for this study. WIPP groundwater brine pH and E h will impact the mobility and fate of plutonium within the repository. Modeling and laboratory results for Castile WIPP brine indicate that equilibrium fa values relative to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE) are 40 mV more reducing (i.e., more negative) than those for Salado WIPP brine (-480 mV vs. -440 mV, respectively) because of the higher pH of the Castile brine (pH 9 .3 for Castile vs. pH 8.8 for Salado). The E h and pH data were corrected for the effects of high ionic strength. The experimental results for both brines are consistent with thermodynamic predictions using OLI Systems' Mixed Solvent Electrolyte chemical equilibrium model. The measured and corrected pH and E h data from this study are provided in Table ES-I and Table ES-2, respectively. The experimental study, with four test conditions in triplicate, was performed in a dual glovebox with a nominally 3 vol.% H 2 in argon atmosphere (target H 2 range: 3 ± I vol.%). Simulants containing MgO only ( experimental control) and MgO+Fe 0 (WIPP base case) were prepared for both the Salado and Castile brines. MgO was included in all simulants to account for the use of bulk magnesium oxide in the WIPP repository. Fe 0 was included in some simulants to incorporate the effects of the anoxic corrosion of iron and in-situ hydrogen generation in the study. The brine compositions were developed by Sandia National Laboratory (SNL; Xiong, 2008) and have been used in previous WIPP evaluations. The test method (agitation, etc.) is partially based on ASTM D3987-12. Twelve rounds of periodic measurements of pH and E h were performed over the course of the study. Chemical analysis results for liquids and solids (ICP-MS, ICP-ES, IC Anion, TIC, SEM-EDX) are consistent with the pH, E h , and thermodynamic modeling results. This study included the following conditions that deviate from anticipated post-closure conditions following brine intrusion, but were selected to facilitate bench-scale testing to validate modeling of pH and E h for the post-closure WIP P repository: an anoxic glove box atmosphere containing ≤ 4 vol. % H 2 vs. substantially higher H 2 gas concentrations assumed in the WIPP Performance Assessment (PA); a significantly higher liquid-to-solid test ratio compared to the much lower phase ratio anticipated in the WIP P repository; agitation of the simulant bottles to maximize mass transfer; and finally the use of Fe 0 reagents having a much greater surface area than expected in the WIP P repository. Non-representative conditions were chosen for various reasons such as: to provide bounding conservative results, to provide a margin of safety for testing, or to facilitate simulant sub-sampling and analysis. In a parallel effort, aqueous electrolyte thermodynamic models were developed for the synthetic Salado and Castile brines to inform the experimental design, facilitate laboratory data interpretation, and allow extension of evaluations beyond the parameters tested. Thermodynamic modeling simulations including the MgO and Fe 0 additives that are directly relevant to the experimental measurements (e.g., pH calibration curve, ORP corrections) are included in this report. The measured fa of the simulants was close to the OLI model predictions for both brines and was largely controlled by the background H 2 partial pressure in the vapor phase as well as H 2 generated in situ in the aqueous phase by the Fe 0 corrosion. The H 2 gas-phase concentration tested and thermodynamically evaluated was much lower than is assumed in the WIPP PA; however, H 2 (g) concentrations significantly below this level are still predicted to result in very reducing conditions. In conclusion: • The experimental results are consistent with thermodynamic model predictions for fa, pH, and the effects of high ionic strength. • Evidence to date suggests that the H2 concentration in the glovebox atmosphere ultimately determined the final E h values of the simulants and resulted in highly reducing conditions. As a result, little difference was observed between the control simulants containing only MgO and the WIPP base-case simulants that contained MgO and Fe 0 . • This test methodology is recommended for future studies evaluating WIPP repository conditions. The methodology includes: (1) background H 2 in argon with agitation ( or could alternatively include in-situ-generated H 2 in sealed bottles); (2) carefully measured and corrected ORP data ( with much effort focused on allowing the probes to fully stabilize); and (3) ionic-strength-corrected pH data. Other best practices, such as simulant sparging/handling, ORP probe replacement, etc., should also be considered. • The coupling of experimental studies and thermodynamic modeling is also highly recommended because these methods inform and direct one another leading to greater confidence in and understanding of the results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are better combinations of DERs more profitable?: Combinatorial optimization for aggregation of DERs in wholesale electricity markets

Recently, regulatory changes in various countries have enabled the participation of small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) aggregated in virtual power plants (VPPs) in wholesale electricity markets. The inherent uncertainty and variability of resources comprising VPPs can lead to imbalances between forecasted and metered outputs, potentially resulting in the deficient settlement of generation under imbalance settlement rules. To address this challenge, it is essential to manage variability in the planning phase and uncertainty in the operation phase. Most current research focuses on managing forecasting errors in the operational phase, with insufficient attention given to the planning phase. Here, to bridge this gap, this paper proposes an optimal combination strategy for DERs to maximize the market participation revenue of VPPs by proactively managing variability in the planning phase. To estimate the expected revenue, we conducted analyses for homogeneous and heterogeneous DERs using Monte Carlo simulations and genetic algorithms. Remarkably, the proposed method demonstrated approximately 8 % higher revenue compared to the neighboring group case when considering diversity in DER set configuration with equal proportions of photovoltaics and wind.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS)

Theoretical models of the co-evolution of galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGNs) ascribe an important role in the feedback process to a short, luminous, obscured, and dust-enshrouded phase during which the accretion rate of the supermassive black hole is expected to be at its maximum and the associated AGN-driven winds are also predicted to be maximally developed. Here, to test this scenario, we have isolated a textbook candidate from the eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS) obtained within the performance and verification program of the eROSITA telescope on board the Spectrum Röntgen Gamma mission. From an initial catalogue of 246 hard X-ray selected sources that are matched with the photometric and spectroscopic information available within the eROSITA and Hyper Suprime-Cam consortia, three candidates quasars in the feedback phase have been isolated applying a diagnostic proposed previously. Only one source (eFEDS J091157.4+014327) has a spectrum already available (from SDSS-DR16, z = 0.603) and it unambiguously shows abroad component (full width at half maximum ~1650 kms –1 ) in the [OIII]5007 line. The associated observed L [OIII] is ~2.6 × 10 42 erg s –1 , one to two orders of magnitude higher than that observed in local Seyfert galaxies and comparable to those observed in a sample of z ~ 0.5 type 1 quasars. From the multi-wavelength data available, we derive an Eddington ratio (L bol /L Edd ) of ~0.25 and a bolometric correction in the hard X-ray band of k bol ~ 10, which is lower than the corrections observed for objects at similar bolometric luminosity. These properties, along with the outflow, the high X-ray luminosity, the moderate X-ray obscuration (L X ~10 44.8 erg s –1 , N H ~2.7 × 10 22 cm –2 ), and the red optical colour, all match the prediction of quasars in the feedback phase from merger-driven models. Forecasting to the full eROSITA all-sky survey with its spectroscopic follow-up, we predict that by the end of 2024, we will have a sample of few hundred such objects at z= 0.5–2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1983

A multi-item maintenance center inventory model for low-demand reparable items

In many military and commercial contexts, complex equipment undergoes scheduled maintenance overhauls at regular intervals during which all failed components are replaced. Failure to have replacements on hand for all failed parts requires emergency measures at premium cost. When reparable parts are highly reliable and expensive, both holding and shortage costs are high. This model determines the reparable parts inventory for a maintenance center under three alternative criteria: (1) maximizing job-completion rate subject to constraint on total holding costs, (2) minimizing total holding costs plus expected job noncompletion costs, and (3) minimizing total holding costs subject to a required minimum job-completion rate. Exact solutions may be obtained using dynamic programming. Approximate solutions, found easily by marginal analysis, have readily computed bounds on possible error. The solution methods for the three formulations are illustrated in a simple example.

Schaefer, M. K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Mira–Titan Universe – IV. High-precision power spectrum emulation

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering data sets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue in the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the non-linear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira–Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. This gravity-only set of simulations covers the standard six cosmological parameters {ω m , ω b , σ 8 , $h, n_s, w_0$} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state {ω ν , $w_a$}. In this paper, we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1 Gpc) 3 volume and evolving 3200 3 particles. In this work, an additional set of 1776 lower resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly non-linear regimes (maximum wavenumber $\textit{k}$ = 5 Mpc –1 ). The emulator provides predictions at the 2–3 percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Undecidability in macroeconomics

In this paper we study the difficulty of solving problems in economics. For this purpose, we adopt the notion of undecidability from recursion theory. We show that certain problems in economics are undecidable, i.e., cannot be solved by a Turing Machine, a device that is at least as powerful as any computational device that can be constructed. In particular, we prove that even in finite closed economies subject to a variable initial condition, in which a social planner knows the behavior of every agent in the economy, certain important social planning problems are undecidable. Thus, it may be impossible to make effective policy decisions. Philosophically, this result formally brings into question the Rational Expectations Hypothesis which assumes that each agent is able to determine what it should do if it wishes to maximize its utility. We show that even when an optimal rational forecast exists for each agency (based on the information currently available to it), agents may lack the ability to make these forecasts. For example, Lucas describes economic models as 'mechanical, artificial world(s), populated by ... interacting robots'. Since any mechanical robot can be at most as computationally powerful as a Turing Machine, such economies are vulnerable to the phenomenon of undecidability.

Chandra, Siddharth↗
NASA NTRS2024

Effects of Water Limitation and Competition on Tree Carbon Allocation in an Earth System Modeling Framework

Earth system models (ESMs) have a limited capacity to represent plant functional diversity and shifts in trait distributions. Approaches to improving the representation of this complexity in ESMs include (i) optimality-based approaches that predict trait–environment responses and (ii) explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly. These approaches are expected to converge only when optimality-based approaches identify competitively dominant strategies, which often differ from strategies that maximize ecosystem functioning or fitness components in monoculture. We used two models, LM3-PPA (a vegetation demographic model designed as an ESM component) and BiomeE (a computationally efficient analog for LM3-PPA), to explore how water limitation affects carbon allocation strategies of canopy trees. We compared competitive allocation strategies and those that maximize biomass or productivity in monoculture. We did not explicitly model coexistence or community assembly. Rather, we used model experiments to identify competitive and maximizing strategies in a two-dimensional trait space under different precipitation and mortality scenarios. At 10 eastern US locations, we simulated historical, wet and dry climate scenarios, novel drought and three different mortality scenarios (low, medium or high sensitivity to water deficit). For each site and scenario, we identified the competitive strategy and three maximizing strategies (maximum biomass, productivity or drought-tolerance). Root: leaf ratios tended to increase and leaf area tended to decrease with increasing water stress (increasing water limitation and its effects on mortality). However, relative to maximizing strategies, competitive strategies shifted towards greater allocation to roots and leaves with increasing water stress. Competitive overinvestments (greater allocation to roots and leaves by competitive strategies compared with maximizing strategies) were robust across different modelling contexts, including vegetation parameter sets (Acer vs. Populus), models (LM3-PPA vs. BiomeE) and uncalibrated vs. calibrated BiomeE versions. Synthesis: The theoretical prediction that competitive and maximizing allocation strategies differ under water limitation is confirmed for a demographic model designed as an ESM component. Optimality-based trait predictions can simplify representing trait diversity in ESMs but do not always correspond to competitive outcomes. Explicitly modelling coexistence and community assembly in ESMs is challenging but is likely the most general approach to representing trait diversity.

vegetation demographic model↗