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At least 181 records · Page 10

On the Breakdown of ENSO's Relationship With Thermocline Depth in the Central-Equatorial Pacific

Recent classification of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) into two types, Eastern (EP) and Central (CP) events, has highlighted the importance of the central Pacific. We show here that the local correlation between ENSO subsurface temperatures (T sub ) in the upper 100-m and thermocline depth anomalies breaks down in the central equatorial Pacific, whereas T sub remains well correlated with sea surface height anomalies. This observed difference in the central equatorial Pacific is simulated by almost all climate models. It arises from a vertically slanted Tsub anomaly structure that is unique to the central equatorial Pacific. We show that this feature is an adiabatic response to wind-driving that is even present in a linear dynamic model, as long as the model has enough baroclinic modes to adequately represent the observed vertical complexity. Our findings have implications for better understanding the different importance of thermocline feedback in CP and EP events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Feedback and Oscillations: Constructing Feedback Systems for Root Cause Analysis of Oscillations in Power Grids

Dynamic phenomena linked to inverter-based resources (IBRs) have gained global attention. Several IBR-induced dynamics have caused bulk power system-connected wind or solar power plants to trip, and some have even led to widespread outages. In addition, many oscillations have been observed involving IBR power plants. In 2023, the IEEE Power & Energy Society (PES) IBR Subsynchronous Oscillations (SSO) task force published a journal article, “Real-World Subsynchronous Oscillation Events in Power Grids With High Penetrations of Inverter-Based Resources,” in which 19 IBR oscillation events were examined for their causation. Earlier in 2020, another PES task force article, “Definition and Classification of Power System Stability-Revisited & Extended,” authored by prominent academics, introduced converter-driven stability as a new category of stability. The international power grid industry community also took action by publishing the CIGRE Green Book, Power System Dynamic Modelling and Analysis in Evolving Networks (led by Babak Badrzadeh and Zia Emin) in 2024. In August 2024, the Energy Systems Integration Group (ESIG) released a practical guide led by Nick Miller, “Diagnosis and Mitigation of Observed Oscillations in IBR-Dominant Power System: A Practical Guide.” The goal of the guide is to assist practicing engineers in making initial judgments and conducting detailed analyses about oscillations. Finally, when addressing the classification of stability and oscillations, the guide emphasizes a causality-based taxonomy for grouping, such as voltage control-induced oscillations, synchronization-induced oscillations, and frequency or active power control-induced oscillations.

Fan, Lingling [Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL (↗

The Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1): Light Curves and Photometric Classification of 1975 Supernovae

We present the Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1), comprised of processed multicolor PanSTARRS1 griz and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) gr photometry of 1975 transients with host–galaxy associations, redshifts, spectroscopic and/or photometric classifications, and additional data products from 2019 November 24 to 2021 December 20. YSE DR1 spans discoveries and observations from young and fast-rising supernovae (SNe) to transients that persist for over a year, with a redshift distribution reaching z ≈ 0.5. We present relative SN rates from YSE's magnitude- and volume-limited surveys, which are consistent with previously published values within estimated uncertainties for untargeted surveys. We combine YSE and ZTF data, and create multisurvey SN simulations to train the ParSNIP and SuperRAENN photometric classification algorithms; when validating our ParSNIP classifier on 472 spectroscopically classified YSE DR1 SNe, we achieve 82% accuracy across three SN classes (SNe Ia, II, Ib/Ic) and 90% accuracy across two SN classes (SNe Ia, core-collapse SNe). Our classifier performs particularly well on SNe Ia, with high (>90%) individual completeness and purity, which will help build an anchor photometric SNe Ia sample for cosmology. We then use our photometric classifier to characterize our photometric sample of 1483 SNe, labeling 1048 (~71%) SNe Ia, 339 (~23%) SNe II, and 96 (~6%) SNe Ib/Ic. YSE DR1 provides a training ground for building discovery, anomaly detection, and classification algorithms, performing cosmological analyses, understanding the nature of red and rare transients, exploring tidal disruption events and nuclear variability, and preparing for the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deep convolutional neural networks for multi-scale time-series classification and application to disruption prediction in fusion devices

The multi-scale, mutli-physics nature of fusion plasmas makes predicting plasma events challenging. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network architectures (CNN) utilizing dilated convolutions enable accurate predictions on sequences which have long-range, multi-scale characteristics, such as the time-series generated by diagnostic instruments observing fusion plasmas. Here we apply this neural network architecture to the popular problem of disruption prediction in fusion tokamaks, utilizing raw data from a single diagnostic, the Electron Cyclotron Emission imaging (ECEi) diagnostic from the DIII-D tokamak. ECEi measures a fundamental plasma quantity (electron temperature) with high temporal resolution over the entire plasma discharge, making it sensitive to a number of potential pre-disruptions markers with different temporal and spatial scales. Promising, initial disruption prediction results are obtained training a deep CNN with large receptive field ({$\sim$}30k), achieving an $F_1$-score of {$\sim$}91\% on individual time-slices using only the ECEi data.

convolutional neural networks↗

Explosion Detection Using Smartphones: Ensemble Learning with the Smartphone High-Explosive Audio Recordings Dataset and the ESC-50 Dataset

Explosion monitoring is performed by infrasound and seismoacoustic sensor networks that are distributed globally, regionally, and locally. However, these networks are unevenly and sparsely distributed, especially at the local scale, as maintaining and deploying networks is costly. With increasing interest in smaller-yield explosions, the need for more dense networks has increased. To address this issue, we propose using smartphone sensors for explosion detection as they are cost-effective and easy to deploy. Although there are studies using smartphone sensors for explosion detection, the field is still in its infancy and new technologies need to be developed. We applied a machine learning model for explosion detection using smartphone microphones. The data used were from the Smartphone High-explosive Audio Recordings Dataset (SHAReD), a collection of 326 waveforms from 70 high-explosive (HE) events recorded on smartphones, and the ESC-50 dataset, a benchmarking dataset commonly used for environmental sound classification. Two machine learning models were trained and combined into an ensemble model for explosion detection. The resulting ensemble model classified audio signals as either “explosion”, “ambient”, or “other” with true positive rates (recall) greater than 96% for all three categories.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor: Accident Analysis

Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) Risk Informed Approach Selection of Licensing Basis Events (LBEs) Frequency-Consequence Target LBE Cumulative Risk Targets Structures, Systems, and Components (SSC) Safety Categories Classification Evaluation of Defense in Depth (DID) Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in LMP Process PRA Policy Statement American Nuclear Society (ANS) Non-Light-Water Reactor (non-LWR) PRA Standard

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Validating Protection System Behavior with Machine Learning in a Master State Overseer

As power system protection devices continue the widespread transition from analog to digital, they become increasingly intricate. The internal functions and communication between critical grid components must now be significantly more complex to keep up with the demands of the modern smart grid. This brings increased difficulty in maintenance and monitoring, making it harder to identify potential misoperation, power anomalies, and cyber threats. Such issues are often only pinpointed after an exhaustive and costly post-mortem analysis, when a major outage or damage has already occurred. A solution is needed for validating protection systems as they operate, independently evaluating grid state and confirming whether the protection system is behaving accordingly. As opposed to incident response, this acts as a constant verification mechanism that raises a flag when subtler issues are noticed, catching them earlier and preventing larger incidents. This work presents the implementation of such a system, expanding on the prototype developed by the authors in a previous paper. This is accomplished with a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by classifying anomalous events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. Additionally, this system is contextualized within a larger, modular Master State awareness Overseer (MSO) framework, responsible for monitoring, analyzing, and managing an electric grid.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

popclass: A Python Package for Classifying Microlensing Events

popclass is a Python package that provides a flexible, probabilistic framework for classifying the lens of a gravitational microlensing event. Gravitational microlensing occurs when a massive foreground object (e.g., a star, white dwarf or black hole) passes in front of and lenses the light from a distant background source. This causes an apparent brightening, and shift in position, of the background source. In most cases, characteristics of the microlensing signal do not contain enough information to definitively identify the lens type. Different lens types lie in different but overlapping regions of the characteristics of the microlensing signal. For example, black holes tend to be more massive than stars and therefore cause microlensing signals that are longer. Current Galactic simulations enable us to predict where different lens types lie in the observational space and can therefore be used to classify events (e.g., Lam et al., 2020). popclass allows the user to match the characteristics of a microlensing signal with a simulation of the Galaxy to calculate lens type probabilities for the event (see Figure 1). Constraints on any microlensing signal properties and any Galactic model can be used. popclass comes with an interface to ArviZ (Kumar et al., 2019) and PyMultiNest (Buchner et al., 2014) for microlensing signal constraints, as well as pre-loaded Galactic models, plotting functionality, and methods to quantify the classification uncertainty. The probabilistic framework for popclass was developed in Perkins et al. (2024), used in Fardeen et al. (2024) and has been applied to classifying events in Kaczmarek et al. (2025).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The fall, recovery, classification, and initial characterization of the Hamburg, Michigan H4 chondrite

Abstract The Hamburg meteorite fell on January 16, 2018, near Hamburg, Michigan, after a fireball event widely observed in the U.S. Midwest and in Ontario, Canada. Several fragments fell onto frozen surfaces of lakes and, thanks to weather radar data, were recovered days after the fall. The studied rock fragments show no or little signs of terrestrial weathering. Here, we present the initial results from an international consortium study to describe the fall, characterize the meteorite, and probe the collision history of Hamburg. About 1 kg of recovered meteorites was initially reported. Petrology, mineral chemistry, trace element and organic chemistry, and O and Cr isotopic compositions are characteristic of H4 chondrites. Cosmic ray exposure ages based on cosmogenic 3 He, 21 Ne, and 38 Ar are ~12 Ma, and roughly agree with each other. Noble gas data as well as the cosmogenic 10 Be concentration point to a small 40–60 cm diameter meteoroid. An 40 Ar‐ 39 Ar age of 4532 ± 24 Ma indicates no major impact event occurring later in its evolutionary history, consistent with data of other H4 chondrites. Microanalyses of phosphates with LA‐ICPMS give an average Pb‐Pb age of 4549 ± 36 Ma. This is in good agreement with the average SIMS Pb‐Pb phosphate age of 4535.3 ± 9.5 Ma and U‐Pb Concordia age of 4535 ± 10 Ma. The weighted average age of 4541.6 ± 9.5 Ma reflects the metamorphic phosphate crystallization age after parent body formation in the early solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine Learning Classification of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger Channel Plugging using Synthetic Data

This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.4 AI capability to identify and predict maintenance events. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating the feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults. To determine the optimal approach to detection and localization of channel plugging, we benchmark seven different ML models: Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Tree Classifier, and Feed-Forward Neural Network. ML algorithms are benchmarked using synthetic HX plugging data generated with computational fluid dynamics COMSOL software, with added brown noise to represent experimental noise. We show that the best performance is obtained with the Decision Tree classifier.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Adaptive Discovery and Mixed-Variable Optimization of Next Generation Synthesizable Microelectronic Materials

Design of new microelectronic materials is characterized by several challenges such as high-dimensionality of the atomic structure-composition variable space, formidable cost of directly using high-fidelity simulations for design optimization, dispersity in literature-reported similar materials and synthesis methods, complex physical mechanisms, and mixed qualitative and quantitative design variables that lead to a disjointed design space. Even though machine learning (ML) techniques have been employed to expedite materials innovation, existing methods treat ML and design optimization as two separate processes, failing to resolve the fundamental challenges associated with high dimensionality and mixed-variable complexity. We have developed a ML enhanced mixed-variable material design optimization framework to efficiently extract useful information from existing data in literature and physics-based simulations to guide the autonomous search for optimal materials. Our proposed framework is composed of four computational modules: (1) a natural language processing (NLP) based virtual screening module, (2) classification based concept exploration module, (3) a density functional theory (DFT)-based high-fidelity evaluation model, and (4) a novel latent-variable Gaussian process (LVGP) ML model for mixed-variable problems with uncertainty quantification, which seamlessly integrates with Bayesian Optimization (BO) and achieves superb efficiency through embedded physics-based dimension reduction. Our approach is demonstrated and validated using the testbed of functional materials exhibiting metal-insulation transitions (MITs), with the targeted reversible resistivity changes (∼10^5) near room temperature. At the end of the 30-month project, we have developed a series of new ML techniques using NLP, conditional variational autoencoders, active learning, latent-variable Gaussian processes, integrated with Bayesian optimization. Our project has resulted in new predicted MITs compounds and improved understanding of MITs microscopic mechanisms, which in turn will revolutionize microelectronics science to provide energy-saving solutions. Our research has improved both creativity and efficiency in transforming rare-event discoveries of new functional materials to persistent innovations. In addition to open-sourcing the online MIT database and the classification model, the LVGP open source code has been downloaded more than 15,000 times within two years. More than 40 MIT compounds have been identified and many have been pursued experimentally via collaborators. The research results are published in close to 20 collaborative papers in high-impact journals, such as Chem. Mater., Appl. Phys. Rev., Sci. Rep., among others of design space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Postmortem and Antemortem Forensic Assessment of Pediatric Fracture Healing from Radiographs and Machine Learning Classification

A timeline of pediatric bone healing using fracture healing characteristics that can be assessed solely using radiographs would be practical for forensic casework, where the fracture event may precede death by days, months, or years. However, the dating of fractures from radiographs is difficult, imprecise, and lacks consensus, as only a few aspects of the healing process are visible on radiographs. Multiple studies in both the clinical and forensic literature have attempted to develop a usable scale to assess pediatric bone healing on radiographs using various healing characteristics. In contrast to the orthopedic definition, a fracture in forensic casework is only considered to be healed when the area around the fracture has been remodeled to the point that the fracture is difficult to detect on a radiograph or on the surface of the bone itself, a process that can take several years. We subjectively assessed visible characteristics of healing in radiograms of fractures occurring in 942 living children and adolescents. By dividing these assessments into learning and test (validation) sets, the accuracy of a newly proposed fracture healing scale was compared to a previous study. Two machine learning models were used to test predictions of the new scale. All three models produced similar estimates with substantial imprecision. Results corroborate the Malone model with an independent dataset and support the efficacy of using less complex models to estimate fracture age in children.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Hijacking a rapid and scalable metagenomic method reveals subgenome dynamics and evolution in polyploid plants

Premise: The genomes of polyploid plants archive the evolutionary events leading to their present forms. However, plant polyploid genomes present numerous hurdles to the genome comparison algorithms for classification of polyploid types and exploring genome dynamics. Methods: Here, the problem of intra- and inter-genome comparison for examining polyploid genomes is reframed as a metagenomic problem, enabling the use of the rapid and scalable MinHashing approach. To determine how types of polyploidy are described by this metagenomic approach, plant genomes were examined from across the polyploid spectrum for both k-mer composition and frequency with a range of k-mer sizes. In this approach, no subgenome-specific k-mers are identified; rather, whole-chromosome k-mer subspaces were utilized. Results: Given chromosome-scale genome assemblies with sufficient subgenome-specific repetitive element content, literature-verified subgenomic and genomic evolutionary relationships were revealed, including distinguishing auto- from allopolyploidy and putative progenitor genome assignment. The sequences responsible were the rapidly evolving landscape of transposable elements. An investigation into the MinHashing parameters revealed that the downsampled k-mer space (genomic signatures) produced excellent approximations of sequence similarity. Furthermore, the clustering approach used for comparison of the genomic signatures is scrutinized to ensure applicability of the metagenomics-based method. Discussion: The easily implementable and highly computationally efficient MinHashing-based sequence comparison strategy enables comparative subgenomics and genomics for large and complex polyploid plant genomes. Such comparisons provide evidence for polyploidy-type subgenomic assignments. In cases where subgenome-specific repeat signal may not be adequate given a chromosomes' global k-mer profile, alternative methods that are more specific but more computationally complex outperform this approach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Simulations of Precessing Jets and the Formation of X-shaped Radio Galaxies

Abstract Jet precession is sometimes invoked to explain asymmetries in radio galaxy (RG) jets and “X/S/Z-shaped” RGs, caused by the presence of a binary black hole companion to the source active galactic nucleus or by accretion instabilities. We present a series of simulations of RG jet precession to examine how these sources would evolve over time, including a passive distribution of cosmic-ray electrons so we can model radio synchrotron emissions and create synthetic radio maps of the sources. We find that a single source viewed from different angles can result in differing RG morphological classifications, confusing physical implications of these classifications. Additionally, the jet trajectories can become unstable due to their own self-interactions and lead to “reorientation events” that may look like the effects of external dynamics such as shocks, winds, or cold fronts in the medium. Finally, something akin to an “Odd Radio Circle” may be observed in the case of viewing the radio remnant of such a precessing source from a line of sight near the precession axis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

‘Flux+Mutability’: a conditional generative approach to one-class classification and anomaly detection

Abstract Anomaly Detection is becoming increasingly popular within the experimental physics community. At experiments such as the Large Hadron Collider, anomaly detection is growing in interest for finding new physics beyond the Standard Model. This paper details the implementation of a novel Machine Learning architecture, called Flux+Mutability, which combines cutting-edge conditional generative models with clustering algorithms. In the ‘flux’ stage we learn the distribution of a reference class. The ‘mutability’ stage at inference addresses if data significantly deviates from the reference class. We demonstrate the validity of our approach and its connection to multiple problems spanning from one-class classification to anomaly detection. In particular, we apply our method to the isolation of neutral showers in an electromagnetic calorimeter and show its performance in detecting anomalous dijets events from standard QCD background. This approach limits assumptions on the reference sample and remains agnostic to the complementary class of objects of a given problem. We describe the possibility of dynamically generating a reference population and defining selection criteria via quantile cuts. Remarkably this flexible architecture can be deployed for a wide range of problems, and applications like multi-class classification or data quality control are left for further exploration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Trigger Detection for the sPHENIX Experiment via Bipartite Graph Networks with Set Transformer

Trigger (interesting events) detection is crucial to high-energy and nuclear physics experiments because it improves data acquisition efficiency. It also plays a vital role in facilitating the downstream offline data analysis process. The sPHENIX detector, located at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider in Brookhaven National Laboratory, is one of the largest nuclear physics experiments on a world scale and is optimized to detect physics processes involving charm and beauty quarks. Furthermore, these particles are produced in collisions involving two proton beams, two gold nuclei beams, or a combination of the two and give critical insights into the formation of the early universe. This paper presents a model architecture for trigger detection with geometric information from two fast silicon detectors. Transverse momentum is introduced as an intermediate feature from physics heuristics. We also prove its importance through our training experiments. Each event consists of tracks and can be viewed as a graph. A bipartite graph neural network is integrated with the attention mechanism to design a binary classification model. Compared with the state-of-the-art algorithm for trigger detection, our model is parsimonious and increases the accuracy and the AUC score by more than 15%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗