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At least 181 records · Page 10

High-dimensional anomaly detection with radiative return in $\mathcal{e}$⁺$\mathcal{e}$⁻ collisions

Experiments at a future $\mathcal{e}$⁺$\mathcal{e}$⁻ collider will be able to search for new particles with masses below the nominal centre-of-mass energy by analyzing collisions with initial-state radiation (radiative return). We show that machine learning methods that use imperfect or missing training labels can achieve sensitivity to generic new particle production in radiative return events. In addition to presenting an application of the classification without labels (CWoLa) search method in $\mathcal{e}$⁺$\mathcal{e}$⁻ collisions, our study combines weak supervision with variable-dimensional information by deploying a deep sets neural network architecture. We have also investigated some of the experimental aspects of anomaly detection in radiative return events and discuss these in the context of future detector design.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Non-Intrusive Appliance Identification with Appliance-Specific Networks

The problem of noninstrusive load monitoring (NILM) is usually formulated as a single-channel blind source separation task, whose successful solution enable fast and convenient load identification and energy disaggregation. When applied at test time, NILM algorithms aim to identify the operating characteristics of individual appliances from an aggregate power measurement of the entire house. Recent advances in deep learning gave rise to many methods that mostly focus on learning a direct mapping from aggregate measurement to individual appliance power. However, these methods are not only computationally expensive, but they often suffer from overfitting and do not generalize very well. In this article, we propose a novel NILM method that leverages advances in statistical learning that have not been properly applied in this domain before. The proposed method consists of three stages: first, a Bayesian nonparametric learning-based approach for appliance state extraction; second, synthetic minority oversampling technique for data augmentation and mitigating the heavy imbalance in switching events; and third, appliance-specific lightweight long short-term memory networks for status classification for each appliance. Here, we adopt a “differential” input (the difference before and after the switching event) to reduce the complexity of network training and make the proposed method robust to multiappliance switching events. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving superior performance when compared to recent methods. An ablation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of each module of our method. Finally, we investigate the quality of generated synthetic samples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The useful potential of using existing data to uniquely identify predictable wind events and regimes, part 2

Wind data from four sites were stratified and found to naturally fit into a few unique groups. These were compared with synoptic weather patterns using the Booz-Allen classification system. Strong relationships became evident between a particular synoptic type and wind events for each site. Statistics indicate certain patterns which result in strong winds and some that result in weak winds. For each site there is a preferred wind direction associated with the strongest speed. Important relationships were also found comparing 850-mb and surface wind. Additionally, comparisons between pressure gradient and wind speed for a given gradient direction show some significant relationships. It can be stated that the overall results show what by using existing data for any site, the winds can be characterized and correlated with synoptic weather patterns. As a result, reliable wind forecasts can be made for utility companies for the purpose of power generation.

Notis, C.↗

Part 121 Taxi/Parked Ground Conflict Related Incidents

This presentation reviews voluntary safety reports received by NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System pertaining to Part 121 Taxi/Parked Ground Conflicts. Ground Conflict, Critical • Two or more aircraft (one may be airborne) in conflict, or an aircraft in conflict with a vehicle/person/object in which the reporter or other involved party took evasive action to avoid a collision, or a collision that almost occurred in cases where evasive action was not taken or possible. The evasive action can include an emergency go-around, veering on a taxiway/runway, rejected takeoff/abort, emergency braking, or an aircraft overflying another aircraft 50 feet or less.  Ground Conflict, Less Severe • Two or more aircraft (one may be airborne) in conflict, or an aircraft in conflict with a vehicle/person/object in which the reporter or other involved party may, or may not have taken precautionary avoidance action, and in which a collision hazard was not imminent.  Ground Event / Encounter – Aircraft • Actual physical contact with another aircraft when aircraft is on the ground. All Aircraft Involved in Incidents Conflicting Aircraft by Weight Classification Flight Conditions and Time (Quarter of Day) Contributing Factors and Human Factors (Event)

taxi↗

Mapping Inundation from Hurricane Florence (2018) with L-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar, Commercial Imagery, and Ancillary Data via Random Forest Classification

Mapping the extent of floodwaters following extreme rainfall aids in the distribution of resources, recovery efforts, and damage assessment practices. Development of a land cover classification system focused on mapping inundation after major hurricane events using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could allow for the production of near-real-time inundation mapping, enabling government and emergency response entities to get a preliminary idea of a developing situation. In response to Hurricane Florence of 2018, NASA JPL collected numerous swaths of quad-pol L-band SAR data with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) instrument observing the record-setting river stages across North and South Carolina. The resulting fully-polarized SAR images allow for mapping of inundation extent at a high spatial resolution with a unique advantage over optical imaging stemming from the sensor’s ability to penetrate cloud cover and dense vegetation. This study seeks to determine how accurately maps of inundation can be generated from L-band SAR imagery through Random Forest classification. Once the extent of water and inundated vegetation is classified, cleanup operations are performed using fuzzy logic to reduce false detections. Estimates of water extent are then combined with datasets describing the distribution of population, buildings, and roads throughout the domain to evaluate societal impacts. Results from the Hurricane Florence case study will be discussed along with the limitations of available validation data for assessment of the classifier’s accuracy.

Alexander Melancon↗

Search for charged-lepton flavour violation in top quark interactions with an up-type quark, a muon, and a $τ$ lepton in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A search for charged-lepton flavour violation (CLFV) in top quark (t) production and decay is presented. The search uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to 138 fb$^{-1}$ collected with the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The signal consists of the production of a single top quark via a CLFV interaction or top quark pair production followed by a CLFV decay. The analysis selects events containing a hadronically decaying $τ$ lepton and a muon of opposite electric charge, as well as at least three jets, one of which is identified as originating from the fragmentation of a bottom quark. Machine learning classification techniques are used to distinguish signal from standard model background events. The results of this search are consistent with the standard model expectations. The upper limits at 95% confidence level on the branching fraction $\mathcal{B}$ for CLFV top quark decays to a muon, a $τ$ lepton, and an up or a charm quark are set at $\mathcal{B}$(t $\to$ $μτ$u) $\lt$ (0.04, 0.08, and 0.12) $\times$ 10$^{-6}$, and $\mathcal{B}$(t $\to$ $μτ$c) $\lt$ (0.81, 1.71, and 2.05) $\times$ 10$^{-6}$ for scalar, vector, and tensor-like operators, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Cause identification of electromagnetic transient events using spatiotemporal feature learning

This paper presents a spatiotemporal feature learning method for cause identification of electromagnetic transient events in power grids. The proposed method is formulated based on the availability of time-synchronized high-frequency measurements and using the convolutional neural network as the spatiotemporal feature representation along with softmax function for the classification. Despite the existing threshold-based, or energy-based events analysis methods, such as support vector machine autoencoder, and tapered multi-layer perceptron neural network, the proposed feature learning is carried out with respect to both time and space. The effectiveness of the proposed feature learning and the subsequent cause identification is validated through the Electromagnetic Transients Program (EMTP) simulation of different events such as line energization, capacitor bank energization, lightning, fault, and high-impedance fault in the IEEE 30-bus, and the real-time digital simulation of the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) 9-bus system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Classification of Dust Days by Satellite Remotely Sensed Aerosol Products

Considerable progress in satellite remote sensing (SRS) of dust particles has been seen in the last decade. From an environmental health perspective, such an event detection, after linking it to ground particulate matter (PM) concentrations, can proxy acute exposure to respirable particles of certain properties (i.e. size, composition, and toxicity). Being affected considerably by atmospheric dust, previous studies in the Eastern Mediterranean, and in Israel in particular, have focused on mechanistic and synoptic prediction, classification, and characterization of dust events. In particular, a scheme for identifying dust days (DD) in Israel based on ground PM10 (particulate matter of size smaller than 10 nm) measurements has been suggested, which has been validated by compositional analysis. This scheme requires information regarding ground PM10 levels, which is naturally limited in places with sparse ground-monitoring coverage. In such cases, SRS may be an efficient and cost-effective alternative to ground measurements. This work demonstrates a new model for identifying DD and non-DD (NDD) over Israel based on an integration of aerosol products from different satellite platforms (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)). Analysis of ground-monitoring data from 2007 to 2008 in southern Israel revealed 67 DD, with more than 88 percent occurring during winter and spring. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model that was applied to a database containing ground monitoring (the dependent variable) and SRS aerosol product (the independent variables) records revealed an optimal set of binary variables for the identification of DD. These variables are combinations of the following primary variables: the calendar month, ground-level relative humidity (RH), the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS, and the aerosol absorbing index (AAI) from OMI. A logistic regression that uses these variables, coded as binary variables, demonstrated 93.2 percent correct classifications of DD and NDD. Evaluation of the combined CART-logistic regression scheme in an adjacent geographical region (Gush Dan) demonstrated good results. Using SRS aerosol products for DD and NDD, identification may enable us to distinguish between health, ecological, and environmental effects that result from exposure to these distinct particle populations.

satellite remote sensing↗

Fault Detection Utilizing Convolution Neural Network on Timeseries Synchrophasor Data From Phasor Measurement Units

An end-to-end supervised learning method is proposed for fault detection in the electric grid using Big Data from multiple Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). The approach consists of preprocessing steps aimed at reducing data noise and dimensionality, followed by utilization of six classification models considered for detecting faults. Three of the models were variants of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures that consider a single type of measurement (voltage, current or frequency) at all PMUs or all types together also at all PMUs. CNN based models were compared to traditional methods of Logistic Regression (LR), Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Evaluation was conducted on two-year data measured by PMUs at 37 locations in a large electric grid. Here, the response variable for classification were extracted from the grid-wide outage event log. Experiments show that CNN-based models outperformed traditional methods on one year out-of-sample outage detection over the entire grid.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Preliminary evaluation of spectral, normal and meteorological crop stage estimation approaches

Several of the projects in the AgRISTARS program require crop phenology information, including classification, acreage and yield estimation, and detection of episodal events. This study evaluates several crop calendar estimation techniques for their potential use in the program. The techniques, although generic in approach, were developed and tested on spring wheat data collected in 1978. There are three basic approaches to crop stage estimation: historical averages for an area (normal crop calendars), agrometeorological modeling of known crop-weather relationships agrometeorological (agromet) crop calendars, and interpretation of spectral signatures (spectral crop calendars). In all, 10 combinations of planting and biostage estimation models were evaluated. Dates of stage occurrence are estimated with biases between -4 and +4 days while root mean square errors range from 10 to 15 days. Results are inconclusive as to the superiority of any of the models and further evaluation of the models with the 1979 data set is recommended.

Cate, R. B.↗

Drop Size Distribution - Based Separation of Stratiform and Convective Rain

For applications in hydrology and meteorology, it is often desirable to separate regions of stratiform and convective rain from meteorological radar observations, both from ground-based polarimetric radars and from space-based dual frequency radars. In a previous study by Bringi et al. (2009), dual frequency profiler and dual polarization radar (C-POL) observations in Darwin, Australia, had shown that stratiform and convective rain could be separated in the log10(Nw) versus Do domain, where Do is the mean volume diameter and Nw is the scaling parameter which is proportional to the ratio of water content to the mass weighted mean diameter. Note, Nw and Do are two of the main drop size distribution (DSD) parameters. In a later study, Thurai et al (2010) confirmed that both the dual-frequency profiler based stratiform-convective rain separation and the C-POL radar based separation were consistent with each other. In this paper, we test this separation method using DSD measurements from a ground based 2D video disdrometer (2DVD), along with simultaneous observations from a collocated, vertically-pointing, X-band profiling radar (XPR). The measurements were made in Huntsville, Alabama. One-minute DSDs from 2DVD are used as input to an appropriate gamma fitting procedure to determine Nw and Do. The fitted parameters - after averaging over 3-minutes - are plotted against each other and compared with a predefined separation line. An index is used to determine how far the points lie from the separation line (as described in Thurai et al. 2010). Negative index values indicate stratiform rain and positive index indicate convective rain, and, moreover, points which lie somewhat close to the separation line are considered 'mixed' or 'transition' type precipitation. The XPR observations are used to evaluate/test the 2DVD data-based classification. A 'bright-band' detection algorithm was used to classify each vertical reflectivity profile as either stratiform or convective, depending on whether or not a clearly-defined melting layer is present at an expected height, and if present, maximum reflectivity within the melting layer as well as the corresponding height are determined. We will present results of quantitative comparisons between the XPR observations-based classifications and the simultaneous 2DVD data-based classifications. Time series comparisons will be presented for thirteen events in Huntsville.

Thurai, Merhala↗

On a Solar Origin for the Cosmogenic Nuclide Event of 775 A.D.

We explore requirements for a solar particle event (SPE) and flare capable of producing the cosmogenic nuclide event of 775 A.D., and review solar circumstances at that time. A solar source for 775 would require a greater than 1 GV spectrum approximately 45 times stronger than that of the intense high-energy SPE of 1956 February 23. This implies a greater than 30 MeV proton fluence (F(sub 30)) of approximately 8 × 10(exp 10) proton cm(exp −2), approximately 10 times larger than that of the strongest 3 month interval of SPE activity in the modern era. This inferred F(sub 30) value for the 775 SPE is inconsistent with the occurrence probability distribution for greater than 30 MeV solar proton events. The best guess value for the soft X-ray classification (total energy) of an associated flare is approximately X230 (approximately 9 × 10(exp 33) erg). For comparison, the flares on 2003 November 4 and 1859 September 1 had observed/inferred values of approximately X35 (approximately 10(exp 33) erg) and approximately X45 (approximately 2 × 10(exp 33) erg), respectively. The estimated size of the source active region for a approximately 10(exp 34) erg flare is approximately 2.5 times that of the largest region yet recorded. The 775 event occurred during a period of relatively low solar activity, with a peak smoothed amplitude about half that of the second half of the 20th century. The approximately 1945-1995 interval, the most active of the last approximately 2000 yr, failed to witness a SPE comparable to that required for the proposed solar event in 775. These considerations challenge a recent suggestion that the 775 event is likely of solar origin.

solar particles↗

Learning from many collider events at once

There have been a number of recent proposals to enhance the performance of machine learning strategies for collider physics by combining many distinct events into a single ensemble feature. To evaluate the efficacy of these proposals, we study the connection between single-event classifiers and multievent classifiers under the assumption that collider events are independent and identically distributed. We show how one can build optimal multievent classifiers from single-event classifiers, and we also show how to construct multievent classifiers such that they produce optimal single-event classifiers. This is illustrated for a Gaussian example as well as for classification tasks relevant for searches and measurements at the Large Hadron Collider. We extend our discussion to regression tasks by showing how they can be phrased in terms of parametrized classifiers. Empirically, we find that training a single-event (per-instance) classifier is more effective than training a multievent (per-ensemble) classifier, as least for the cases we studied, and we relate this fact to properties of the loss function gradient in the two cases. While we did not identify a clear benefit from using multievent classifiers in the collider context, we speculate on the potential value of these methods in cases involving only approximate independence, as relevant for jet substructure studies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hot Droughts and Forest Tree Dynamics in the Amazon - Statistical Models, Scripts, Data, and Outputs

This package contains data, outputs, equations, and R scripts for analyses for manuscript entitled "Hot droughts in the Amazon: A window to a future hypertropical climate" by J. Chambers et al., in particular it contains statistical models and analyses for the INPA BIONTE tree mortality study. The Models folder contains details for all statistical models in PDF files. The Scripts folder contains the R scripts for Bayesian Hierarchical Models (two text files) and SEMs (one text file) are separate and reasonably annotated. All data associated with these scripts are in the data folder. The Data folder contains two of the three CSV files used for the analyses and are called by the R scripts. Two of them are part of published datasets (`BIONTE_mortality-rates.csv` from Lima et al. 2024, DOI:10.15486/ngt/1898910 and `SPEI.csv` from Pastorello et al. 2023 DOI:10.15486/ngt/1958257) and also provided in this package for convenience (please see the corresponding datasets for usage and citation terms). The third dataset (`BIONTE_gapfilled_wd.csv`) contains sensitive information and can be obtained by contacting the manuscript lead author. The Outputs folder contains the two output files that provide extra information about the analyses. The file `figuresFeb2025d.pdf` contains all the figures from the manuscript - captions are in the manuscript. The file `ChambersMS.pdf` contains primary results from Bayesian statistical models, regression analyses, and validation steps applied to the tree mortality data from the INPA experiments. The document includes visual summaries, model diagnostics, and leave-one-out (LOO) validation results. A breakdown of file contents can be found in the README file that is part of this package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Supervised and Un-Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms for Threat Detection and Scintillator Performance for Radiation Portal Monitoring

Following the events of September 11, 2001, international border crossing have been equipped with radiation portal monitors (RPMs) to identify illicit radioactive material. Polyvinyl toluene (PVT) scintillators are commonly used due to their low cost and reasonable maintainability, however they offer low spectral resolution. Despite the fact that over twenty years has transpired since this event, radioisotopes are still typically identified by hand-crafted classification algorithms, e.g., total counts or energy windowing, and exhibit relatively poor performance in detecting threats at the low false alarm rates required to support the stream of commerce. While some improvement to performance has been realized via the use of supervised machine learning, these classification algorithms typically utilize simulations in lieu of real data due to the sparsity of data for one or more classes. Accordingly, the performance of these algorithms is somewhat less than optimal when examining experiments or simulations with model mismatch. Consequently, in this work, we examine the application of a number of unsupervised machine learning, anomaly detection based algorithms, to circumvent the inverse crime when analyzing spectroscopy data for RPMs. We also compare anomaly detection results with those obtained via the use of supervised classification detection ML algorithms when model mismatch is introduced between the simulated threat items utilized for training/testing. Finally, we compared the performance of the PVT scintillators to those obtained with higher resolution detectors using both anomaly detection and supervised classification algorithms.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A Proposal to Develop Interactive Classification Technology

Research for the first year was oriented towards: 1) the design of an interactive classification tool (ICT); and 2) the development of an appropriate theory of inference for use in ICT technology. The general objective was to develop a theory of classification that could accommodate a diverse array of objects, including events and their constituent objects. Throughout this report, the term "object" is to be interpreted in a broad sense to cover any kind of object, including living beings, non-living physical things, events, even ideas and concepts. The idea was to produce a theory that could serve as the uniting fabric of a base technology capable of being implemented in a variety of automated systems. The decision was made to employ two technologies under development by the principal investigator, namely, SMS (Symbolic Manipulation System) and SL (Symbolic Language) [see debessonet, 1991, for detailed descriptions of SMS and SL]. The plan was to enhance and modify these technologies for use in an ICT environment. As a means of giving focus and direction to the proposed research, the investigators decided to design an interactive, classificatory tool for use in building accessible knowledge bases for selected domains. Accordingly, the proposed research was divisible into tasks that included: 1) the design of technology for classifying domain objects and for building knowledge bases from the results automatically; 2) the development of a scheme of inference capable of drawing upon previously processed classificatory schemes and knowledge bases; and 3) the design of a query/ search module for accessing the knowledge bases built by the inclusive system. The interactive tool for classifying domain objects was to be designed initially for textual corpora with a view to having the technology eventually be used in robots to build sentential knowledge bases that would be supported by inference engines specially designed for the natural or man-made environments in which the robots would be called upon to operate.

deBessonet, Cary↗