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At least 181 records · Page 10

Experimental comparison of time synchronization techniques by means of light signals and clock transport on the rotating earth

An experiment was conducted to investigate the equivalence of two methods of time transfer in a noninertial reference frame: by means of an electromagnetic signal using laser light pulses and by means of the slow ground transport of a hydrogen maser atomic clock. The experiment may also be interpreted as an investigation of whether the one-way speeds of light in the east-west and west-east directions on the rotating earth are the same. The light pulses were sent from a laser coupled to a telescope at the NASA Goddard Optical Research Facility (GORF) in Greenbelt, Maryland to the U.S. Naval Observatory (USNO) in Washington, DC. The optical path was made possible by a 30-cm flat mirror on a water tower near GORF and a 25-cm flat mirror on top of the Washington National Cathedral near USNO. The path length was 26.0 km with an east-west component of 20.7 km. The pulses were reflected back over the same path by a portable array of corner cube reflectors. The transmission and return times were measured with a stationary Sigma Tau hydrogen maser and a University of Maryland event timer at GORF, while the times of reflection were measured with a similar maser and event timer combination carefully transported to USNO. Both timekeeping systems were housed in highly insulated enclosures and were maintained at constant temperatures to within +/- 0.1 C by microprocessor controllers. The portable system was also protected from shock and vibration by pneumatic supports. The difference delta(T) between the directly measured time of reflection according to the portable clock and the time of reflection calculated from the light pulse signal times measured by the stationary clock was determined. For a typical trip delta(T) is less than 100 ps and the corresponding limit on an anisotropy of the one-way speed of light is delta(c/c) is less than 1.5 x 10(exp -6). This the only experiment to date in which two atomic clocks were calibrated at one location, one was slowly transported to the other end of a path, and the times of transmission, reflection, and return of short light pulses sent in different directions along the path were registered.

Nelson, R. A.↗

AXAF SIM focus mechanism study

The design requirements and initial design concept for the AXAF-I Science Instrument Module (SIM) were reviewed at Ball on September 29, 1993. The concept design SIM focus mechanism utilizes a planetary gearset, with redundant motors, to drive a large ring (called 'main housing bearing') via a spur gearset. This large drive ring actuates three tangent bar links (called 'push rods'), which in turn actuate three levers (called 'pin levers'). Each of the three pin levers rotates an 'eccentric pin,' which in turn moves the base of a bipod flexure in both the radial (normal to optical axis) and axial (focus along optical axis) directions. Three bipod flexures are employed, equally spaced at 120 degrees apart, the base of each being translated in the two directions as described above. A focus adjustment is made by rotating the drive ring, which drives the push rods and therefore the pin levers, which in turn rotate the eccentric pins, finally imparting the two motions to the base of each of the bipod flexures. The axial translation (focus adjustment) of the focused structure is the sum of the direct axial motion plus axial motion which comes from uniformly squeezing the three bipod bases radially inward. SAO documented the following concerns regarding the focus mechanism in memo WAP-FY94-001, dated October 7, 1993: (1) The focus adjustment depends, in large part, on the structural properties (stiffnesses and end fixities) of the bipod flexures, push rods, pin levers and eccentric pins. If these properties are not matched very well, then lateral translations as well as unwanted rotations of the focussed structure will accompany focus motion. In addition, the stackup of linkage tolerances and any nonuniform wear in the linkages will result in the same unwanted motions. Thermal gradients will also affect these motions. At the review Ball did not present supporting analyses to support their choice of this design concept. (2) The proposed 'primary' method of measuring focus is by counting motor steps. The 'backup' method is by a pot mounted on the drive ring. Neither method provides for a direct measurement of the quantity desired (focus position). This is of concern because of the long and indirect relationship between focus and the sensed quantity (drive ring rotation). There are three sinusoidal relationships and structural stiffness in the path, and the resulting calibration is likely to be highly nonlinear. These methods would require an accurate ground calibration. (3) Ground calibration (and verification) of focus vs. drive position must be done in 1-g on the ground. This calibration will be complicated by both the structural characteristics of the bipods and the fact that the CG of the translating portion of the SIM is not on the optical axis (thereby causing unwated rotations and changing the focus position vs. motor step and pot readout relationships). The SIM translating weight could be offloaded, but the calibration then becomes sensitive to any errors in offloading (both magnitude and direction). There are concerns as to whether a calibration to the required accuracy can be accomplished on the ground. (4) The choice of a potentiometer as the focus position sensor is questionable in terms of reliability for a five year mission. The results of SAO's study of items 1, 2 and 3 described above are presented in this report.

Tananbaum, H. D.↗

An Improved Hf Vapor Etching Apparatus for Stardust Particle Extraction

Introduction: The NASA Stardust mission captured thousands of particles from the Jupiter-family comet 81P/Wild 2 in a collector composed of aluminum foil and blocks of silica aerogel [1]. To date, most Wild 2 particles available for study are relatively large and coherent particles extracted individually from the ends of hollow, carrot-shaped impact tracks produced during impact into aerogel. However, >65% of the impacting mass can be found in the ‘bulb’ of the track, including nearly all of the <1 μm size fraction [2]. This fraction contains organic-rich material and is likely to include presolar grains, representing a critical opportunity to constrain the organic and presolar inventory of primitive outer solar system materials. However, the small size and susceptibility of this fraction to melting or alteration during capture poses significant analytical challenges. Previous attempts to extract and concentrate fine-grained material from the bulb of Stardust tracks have attempted to develop techniques that efficiently destroy aerogel and leave impactor particles relatively unharmed. The low density and high porosity of silica aerogel makes it more susceptible to attack by etching with hydrofluoric acid (HF) [3] or CF4 plasma ashing [4] than collected cometary silicates. Previous studies of HF vapor etching used HF solutions varying between 5 to 49% and noted that at high concentrations and etch rates, a liquid droplet was produced according to the etching reaction 4HF + SiO2 → SiF4 (g) + 2H2O [3]. SiF4 readily decomposes into HF and silicic acid in water, which has the potential to alter the freed cometary silicates. The plasma ashing technique avoids production of a liquid droplet and minimizes damage to embedded silicates but requires specialized equipment [4]. In this abstract, we present recent improvements to the HF etching procedure with the aim of constructing an etching chamber capable of slowly etching silica aerogel using small quantities of dilute HF. The etching chamber can be assembled using readily available materials.

Stardust↗

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters: Preprint

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

industry support↗

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

converter↗

Search for the lepton-flavour violating decays B0 → K *0 μ ± e ∓ and ${B}_s^0$ → Φμ ± e ∓

A search for the lepton-flavour violating decays B 0 → K *0 μ ± e ∓ and \( {B}_s^0 \) → Φμ ± e ∓ is presented, using proton-proton collision data collected by the LHCb detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb - 1 . No significant signals are observed and upper limits of $$ {\displaystyle \begin{array}{c}\mathcal{B}\left({B}^0\to {K}^{\ast 0}{\mu}^{+}{e}^{-}\right)<5.7\times {10}^{-9}\left(6.9\times {10}^{-9}\right),\\ {}\mathcal{B}\left({B}^0\to {K}^{\ast 0}{\mu}^{-}{e}^{+}\right)<6.8\times {10}^{-9}\left(7.9\times {10}^{-9}\right),\\ {}\mathcal{B}\left({B}^0\to {K}^{\ast 0}{\mu}^{\pm }{e}^{\mp}\right)<10.1\times {10}^{-9}\left(11.7\times {10}^{-9}\right),\\ {}\mathcal{B}\left({B}_s^0\to \phi {\mu}^{\pm }{e}^{\mp}\right)<16.0\times {10}^{-9}\left(19.8\times {10}^{-9}\right)\end{array}} $$ are set at 90% (95%) confidence level. These results constitute the world’s most stringent limits to date, with the limit on the decay \( {B}_s^0 \) → Φμ ± e ∓ the first being set. In addition, limits are reported for scalar and left-handed lepton-flavour violating New Physics scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Demonstration of improved laser preheat with a cryogenically cooled magnetized liner inertial fusion platform

We report on progress implementing and testing cryogenically cooled platforms for Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experiments. Two cryogenically cooled experimental platforms were developed: an integrated platform fielded on the Z pulsed power generator that combines magnetization, laser preheat, and pulsed-power-driven fuel compression and a laser-only platform in a separate chamber that enables measurements of the laser preheat energy using shadowgraphy measurements. The laser-only experiments suggest that ~89% ± 10% of the incident energy is coupled to the fuel in cooled targets across the energy range tested, significantly higher than previous warm experiments that achieved at most 67% coupling and in line with simulation predictions. The laser preheat configuration was applied to a cryogenically cooled integrated experiment that used a novel cryostat configuration that cooled the MagLIF liner from both ends. Furthermore, the integrated experiment, z3576, coupled 2.32 ± 0.25 kJ preheat energy to the fuel, the highest to-date, demonstrated excellent temperature control and nominal current delivery, and produced one of the highest pressure stagnations as determined by a Bayesian analysis of the data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Abrupt Changes at the Permian/Triassic Boundary: Tempo of Events from High-Resolution Cyclostratigraphy

The Permian/Triassic (P/Tr) boundary (251.4 +/- 3 Myr) is marked by the most severe mass extinction in the geologic record. Recently, precise absolute dating has bracketed the marine extinctions and associated carbon-isotope anomaly within less than 1 Myr. We improve this resolution through high-resolution stratigraphy across the P/Tr boundary in the 331-m Gartnerkofel-1 core and nearby Reppwand outcrop section (Carnic Alps, Austria) utilizing FFT and wavelet timeseries analyses of cyclic components in down-hole core logs of density and natural gamma-ray intensity, and carbon-isotopic ratios of bulk samples. The wavelet analysis indicates continuity of deposition across the P/Tr boundary interval, and the timeseries analyses show evidence for persistent cycles in the ratio of approximately 40: 10: 4.7: 2.3 meters, correlated with Milankovitch-band orbital cycles of approximately 412: 100: 40: 20 kyr (eccentricity 1 and 2, obliquity, and precession), and giving a consistent average sedimentation rate of approximately 10 cm/1,000 yr. Milankovitch periods in delta C-13 and density in these shallow-water carbonates were most likely the result of climatically induced oscillations of sea level and climate, coupled with changes in ocean circulation and productivity, that affected sedimentation. Fluctuations in gamma radiation reflect varying input of clay minerals and the presence of shaly interbeds. Throughout the P/Tr boundary interval in the core, the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle seems to be dominant. Weaker obliquity and precession cycles are in line with the location of the Austrian section in the latest Permian, close to the Equator in the western bight of the Tethys, where obliquity and precessional effects on seasonal contrast might be subdued. Using the improved resolution provided by cycle analysis in the GK-1 core, we find that the dramatic change in the faunal record that marks the P/Tr boundary takes place over less than 6m, or less than 60,000 years. In the nearby Reppwand outcrop section, the same faunal changes occurs over only 0.8 m or about 8,000 years, close to the limit of time-resolution induced by bioturbation and reworking in these sediments. The sharp negative global carbon-isotope shift took place within less than or equal to 40,000 yr, and the isotope excursions persisted for approximately 480,000 yr into the Early Triassic. The results indicate that the severe marine faunal event that marks the P/Tr boundary was very sudden, perhaps less than the resolution window in the GK-1 core, and suggest a catastrophic cause. The wavelet-analysis approach to high-resolution cyclostratigraphy can be applied to other P/Tr boundary sections, and when combined with precise absolute dating and magnetostratigraphic methods promises a significant increase in resolution in determining the correlation and tempo of the end-Permian extinctions and related events worldwide.

Rampino, M. R.↗

A Catalog of Coronal "EIT Wave" Transients

SOHO Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) data have been visually searched for coronal "EIT wave" transients over the period beginning 24 March 1997 extending through 24 June 1998. The dates covered start at the beginning of regular high-cadence (more than 1 image every 20 minutes) observations, ending at the 4-month interruption of SOHO observations in mid-1998. 176 events are included in this catalog. The observations range from "candidate" events, which were either weak or had insufficient data coverage, to events which were well-defined and were clearly distinguishable in the data. Included in the catalog are times of the EIT images in which the events are observed, diagrams indicating the observed locations of the wavefronts and associated active regions, and the speeds of the wavefronts. The measured speeds of the wavefronts varied from less than 50 to over 700 km/sec with "typical" speeds of 200-400 Msec.

Thompson, B. J.↗

A Catalog of Coronal "EIT Wave" Transients

Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) data have been visually searched for coronal "EIT wave" transients over the period beginning from 1997 March 24 and extending through 1998 June 24. The dates covered start at the beginning of regular high-cadence (more than one image every 20 minutes) observations, ending at the four-month interruption of SOHO observations in mid-1998. One hundred and seventy six events are included in this catalog. The observations range from "candidate" events, which were either weak or had insufficient data coverage, to events which were well defined and were clearly distinguishable in the data. Included in the catalog are times of the EIT images in which the events are observed, diagrams indicating the observed locations of the wave fronts and associated active regions, and the speeds of the wave fronts. The measured speeds of the wave fronts varied from less than 50 to over 700 km s(exp -1) with "typical" speeds of 200-400 km s(exp -1).

Thompson, B. J.↗

Artemis Lunar Mission Availability & Design

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Artemis Program is leading international spaceexploration in a return to human lunar missions. The mission design underpinning this program is a critical aspect inthe integration of the multiple vehicles, processes, and capabilities to execute the most demanding human spaceflightmissions to date. Frequently mission design is characterized solely by its trajectory and the associated delta-velocityto achieve the end-to-end mission on a single day of flight. However, in practical terms for spaceflight missions,actual performance must characterize the translation delta-velocity demand, integrated power and thermal, crew dayoperations, commodities limitations, launch vehicle opportunities, and numerous additional factors across numerouslaunch day dependent variables. These factors together provide a unified set of mission design constraints that mustall be met in order to execute a fully integrated mission. The frequency of achieving all of the mission designconstraints is thus characterized as mission availability. The mission availability reflects the number of opportunitiesin any given period (month, year, etc.) for which an end-to-end mission could be launched. Ensuring adequatemission availability for the Artemis Program is necessary to support long term viability and sustainability of humanlunar exploration. This paper will characterize the driving factors in the Artemis mission availability includingvehicle specific effects from the Space Launch System (SLS), Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, Gateway, HumanLanding System (HLS) and other contributing projects. This analysis will also summarize the relevant factors thatfuture vehicles and projects should consider for the integration and expansion of exploration capabilities with theArtemis Program.

Nujoud Fahoum Merancy↗

Space Shuttle Status News Conference

Richard Gilbech, External Tank "Tiger Team" Lead, begins this space shuttle news conference with detailing the two major objectives of the team. The objectives include: 1) Finding the root cause of the foam loss on STS-114; and 2) Near and long term improvements for the external tank. Wayne Hale, Space Shuttle Program Manager, presents a chart to explain the external tank foam loss during STS-114. He gives a possible launch date for STS-121 after there has been a repair to the foam on the External Tank. He further discusses the changes that need to be made to the surrounding areas of the plant in New Orleans, due to Hurricane Katrina. Bill Gerstemaier, NASA Associate Administrator for Space Operations, elaborates on the testing of the external tank foam loss. The discussion ends with questions from the news media about a fix for the foam, replacement of the tiles, foam loss avoidance, the root cause of foam loss and a possible date for a new external tank to be shipped to NASA Kennedy Space Center.

Source record↗

Comparison of a Full-Scale and a 1:10 Scale Low-Speed Two-Stroke Marine Engine Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

International marine shipping is a growing component of international trade; a vast majority of all the world’s goods are being transported on large ocean-going vessels. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced the Energy Efficiency Design Index in 2013, a regulatory framework of associated metrics for reducing emissions of CO 2 per tonne-mile from shipping by approximately 10% each decade. Therefore, decarbonizing the maritime sector requires the development of new fuel sources. Because of the extremely large physical size of the internal combustion engines present in shipping vessels, experimental iterative development of the engine and fuel system is cost-prohibitive. Thus, the ability to perform combustion system development in a scaled platform that can be more easily operated and modeled computationally is of interest. To that end, scaling relationships are needed to translate the results from a smaller engine to a larger counterpart. Scaling studies to date have been restricted to low scaling ratios, four-stroke light-duty engines, and under-resolved computational fluid dynamic simulations that likely do not accurately capture the physics of scaling. In this work, computational models of a 1:10 scale and a full-scale two-stroke crosshead low-speed marine engine were created and validated against experiments obtained in a real 1:10 scale engine installed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Further, due to the large size of the full-scale engine, the model required large high-performance computing resources to be evaluated. The availability of high-performance computing resources at the Department of Energy’s Leadership Computing Facilities is an enabler of the current work. The results of the small- and large-scale engine simulations were compared to analyze the effectiveness of the appropriate scaling laws under these extreme scaling ratio conditions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Lin Lindcove Orange Orchard

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Lin Lindcove Orange Orchard. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Lin Lindcove Orange Orchard produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The experimental site was a citrus orchard about three km west of the UC Lindcove Research and Experiment Station. The site is characterized by a Mediterranean climate typical of Central California, with warm dry summers and cool wet winters. The soil texture for the upper horizon (0-33 cm) was loam with a particle size distribution of 42% sand, 38% silt, and 20% clay (Kearney Ag Center). Soil pH was 7.4 (Valley Tech Soil Agricultural Laboratory Services). The orchard was drip-irrigated with water applied twice per week in the warm season to ensure water avail- ability close to field capacity. The site was kept clean from understory vegetation and mechanical pruning operations took place twice a year to limit the size ofthe orange trees for harvesting and site maintenance. The block of trees in which the tower and instruments were located was ‘Valencia’ orange on trifoliate rootstock, with a planting date in the 1960’s. The square 4 ha block had dimensions of 200 m NeS and EeW. At the end of the study, we harvested a ‘Valencia’ citrus tree from within the study block to measure citrus leaf area index (LAI) and biomass density. The tree height was 3.7 m as measured with a telescoping pole. We measured canopy radii in the four cardinal directions to calculate a planar area (as seen from above) of 12.2 m2. The mean specific leaf area (SLA) of citrus leaves was 85.4 cm2 g-1 obtained by measuring leaf area of five groups of leaf samples with a LiCor Leaf area meter (mod. LI-3100C) followed by drying and weighing. LAI for the orchard was 3.00, derived using the SLA value and the total dry mass of leaves from the harvested tree, multiplied by the plant population of 237 plants per ha as obtained from spacing measurements and Google Maps imagery.

Fares, Silvano↗

Putting Our Industry's Data to Work: A Case Study of Large-Scale Data Aggregation: Preprint

With increasing deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), Building Automation System (BAS) controls, Internet of Things (IoT) network devices, and data-driven evaluation, measurement, and verification studies, the building sector is currently generating a staggering amount of energy-related data. In the right hands, these data sets can contribute to increased comfort and energy savings for building occupants and a more reliable electrical grid; however, due to a combination of factors, including significant privacy concerns, much of the data that are presently generated and stored are not used outside of basic operational applications. In the past year, our team has dedicated over 2,000 person-hours to accessing building energy data for a project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office. We sought whole-building or end-use (e.g., lighting) timeseries data at the individual-building or equipment level where possible or aggregated information, such as timeseries averages and quartiles by building type (e.g., office, retail, hospital), where sharing individual building information was not an option. We are additionally working with IoT and BAS data sets to derive information important to the project. We have assembled an extensive data set that will enable the development of publicly available end-use load profiles to benefit the U.S. building and electricity industries. Here we present an overview of the data set that we have assembled to date, the motivators and approaches that got us here, and the lessons we learned through our efforts. We also discuss work underway that presents additional options for future data access.

building energy data↗

Jetted and Turbulent Stellar Deaths: New LVK-detectable Gravitational-wave Sources

Upcoming LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA (LVK) observing runs are expected to detect a variety of inspiralling gravitational-wave (GW) events that come from black hole and neutron star binary mergers. Detection of noninspiral GW sources is also anticipated. We report the discovery of a new class of noninspiral GW sources—the end states of massive stars—that can produce the brightest simulated stochastic GW burst signal in the LVK bands known to date, and could be detectable in LVK run A+. Some dying massive stars launch bipolar relativistic jets, which inflate a turbulent energetic bubble—cocoon—inside of the star. We simulate such a system using state-of-the-art 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations and show that these cocoons emit quasi-isotropic GW emission in the LVK band, ~10–100 Hz, over a characteristic jet activity timescale ~10–100 s. Our first-principles simulations show that jets exhibit a wobbling behavior, in which case cocoon-powered GWs might be detected already in LVK run A+, but it is more likely that these GWs will be detected by the third-generation GW detectors with an estimated rate of ~10 events yr –1 . The detection rate drops to ~1% of that value if all jets were to feature a traditional axisymmetric structure instead of a wobble. Accompanied by electromagnetic emission from the energetic core-collapse supernova and the cocoon, we predict that collapsars are powerful multimessenger events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

[NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 1, part 2:] Technical communications in aeronautics: Results of an exploratory study

A study was undertaken that explored several aspects of technical communications in aeronautics. The study, which utilized survey research in the form of a self-administered questionnaire, was sent to 2,000 randomly selected members of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. Six hundred and six usable questionnaires (30.3 percent) were received by the established cut off date. Part 2 of this study lists appendices to part 1, including survey instrument, aggregate totals, cross tabulations, and open-ended comments.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

The AMU created new logistic regression equations in an effort to increase the skill of the Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II (Lambert 2007). One equation was created for each of five sub-seasons based on the daily lightning climatology instead of by month as was done in Phase II. The assumption was that these equations would capture the physical attributes that contribute to thunderstorm formation more so than monthly equations. However, the SS values in Section 5.3.2 showed that the Phase III equations had worse skill than the Phase II equations and, therefore, will not be transitioned into operations. The current Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II will continue to be used operationally in MIDDS. Three warm seasons were added to the Phase II dataset to increase the POR from 17 to 20 years (1989-2008), and data for October were included since the daily climatology showed lightning occurrence extending into that month. None of the three methods tested to determine the start of the subseason in each individual year were able to discern the start dates with consistent accuracy. Therefore, the start dates were determined by the daily climatology shown in Figure 10 and were the same in every year. The procedures used to create the predictors and develop the equations were identical to those in Phase II. The equations were made up of one to three predictors. TI and the flow regime probabilities were the top predictors followed by 1-day persistence, then VT and Ll. Each equation outperformed four other forecast methods by 7-57% using the verification dataset, but the new equations were outperformed by the Phase II equations in every sub-season. The reason for the degradation may be due to the fact that the same sub-season start dates were used in every year. It is likely there was overlap of sub-season days at the beginning and end of each defined sub-season in each individual year, which could very well affect equation performance.

Crawford, Winifred C.↗