Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Emissivity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

Effects of residue removal and tillage on greenhouse gas emissions in continuous corn systems as simulated with RZWQM2

Agricultural production is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) globally. The effects of conservation practices on soil CO 2 and N 2 O emissions remain a high degree of uncertainty. In this study, soil CO 2 and N 2 O emissions under different residue and tillage practices in an irrigated, continuous corn system, were investigated using the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2). Combinations of no/high stover removal (NR and HR, respectively) and no-till/conventional tillage (NT and CT, respectively) field experiments were tested over the four crop-years (Apr. 2011–Apr. 2015). The model was calibrated using the NRCT, and validated with other treatments. The simulation results showed that soil volumetric water content (VWC) in the NR treatments (i.e., NRCT and NRNT) was 1.3%–1.9% higher than that in the HR treatments (i.e., HRCT and HRNT) averaged across the four years. A higher amount of CO 2 and N 2 O emissions were simulated in the NRCT across the four years (annual average: 7034 kg C/ha/yr for CO 2 and 3.8 kg N/ha/yr for N 2 O), and lower emissions were in the HRNT (annual average: 6329 kg C/ha/yr and 3.7 kg N/ha/yr for N 2 O). A long-term simulation (2001–2015) suggested that the CO 2 and N 2 O emissions were closely correlated with the stover removal degree (SRD), tillage, VWC, soil temperature (ST), years in management (Y), and fertilizer application. Stover and tillage practices had cumulative effects on CO 2 emissions. The simulated annual CO 2 emissions in 1st year from NRCT, NRNT, and HRCT were 7.8%, 0.0%, and 7.7% higher than that from HRNT, respectively; then the emissions in 15th year were 63.6%, 47.7%, and 29.1% higher, respectively. Meanwhile, there were no cumulative effects on N 2 O emissions. Furthermore, the results also demonstrated that the RZWQM2 is a promising tool for evaluating the long-term effects of CO 2 and N 2 O emissions on different conservation practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over metropolitan areas from space: A multi-model analysis of OCO-2 data over Lahore, Pakistan

Urban areas, where gathering more than 55% of the global population, alone contributed to more than 70% of anthropogenic fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO 2ff ) emissions. Accurate quantification of CO 2ff emissions from urban areas is of great importance to the formulation of global warming mitigation policies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Satellite-based inversion techniques are unique among “top-down” approaches, potentially allowing us to track CO 2ff emission changes over cities globally. However, its accuracy is still limited by incomplete background information, cloud blockages, aerosol contaminations, and uncertainties in models and emission inventories used as prior. To evaluate the current potential of space-based quantification techniques, we present the first attempt to monitor long-term changes in CO 2ff emissions based on the OCO-2 satellite measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO2 ) over a fast-growing Asian metropolitan area: Lahore, Pakistan. We first examined the OCO-2 data availability at global scale. About 17% of OCO-2 soundings are marked as high-quality soundings by quality flags over the global 70 most populated cities over the period 2014-2019. Cloud blockage and aerosol contamination are the two main causes of data loss. As an attempt to recover additional soundings, we evaluated the effectiveness of OCO-2 quality flags at the city level by comparing three flux quantification methods (WRF-Chem, X-STILT, and flux cross-sectional integration method), all based on the Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide (ODIAC) product. The satellite/bottom-up emissions (OCO-2/ODIAC) ratios of the high-quality tracks better converged across the three methods compared to the all-data tracks with reduced uncertainties in emissions. Thus, OCO-2 quality flags are useful filters of low-quality OCO-2 retrievals at local scales, although originally designed for global-scale studies. All three methods consistently suggested that the ratio medians are greater than 1, which implies that the ODIAC slightly underestimated the CO2ff emissions over Lahore. Additionally, our estimation of the a posteriori CO2ff emission trend was about 734 kt C/year (i.e., an annual 6.7% increase). 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the Mann-Kendall upward trend test showed that less than 10% prior uncertainty for 8 tracks (or less than 20% prior uncertainty for 25 tracks) is required to achieve a greater-than-50% trend significant possibility at a 95% confidence level. It implies that the trend is driven by the prior and not due to the assimilation of OCO-2 retrievals. The key to improving the role of satellite data in CO 2 emission trend detection lies in collecting more frequent high-quality tracks near metropolitan areas to achieve significant constraints from X CO2 retrievals.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions from Composting

Composting can divert organic waste from landfills, reduce landfill methane emissions, and recycle nutrients back to soils. However, the composting process is also a source of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. Researchers, regulators, and policy decision-makers all rely on emissions estimates to develop local emissions inventories and weigh competing waste diversion options, yet reported emission factors are difficult to interpret and highly variable. This review explores the impacts of waste characteristics, pretreatment processes, and composting conditions on CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, NH 3 , and VOC emissions by critically reviewing and analyzing 388 emission factors from 46 studies. The values reported to date suggest that CH 4 is the single largest contributor to 100-year global warming potential (GWP 100 ) for yard waste composting, comprising approximately 80% of the total GWP 100 . For nitrogen-rich wastes including manure, mixed municipal organic waste, and wastewater treatment sludge, N 2 O is the largest contributor to GWP 100 , accounting for half to as much as 90% of the total GWP 100 . If waste is anaerobically digested prior to composting, N 2 O, NH 3 , and VOC emissions tend to decrease relative to composting the untreated waste. Effective pile management and aeration are key to minimizing CH 4 emissions. However, forced aeration can increase NH 3 emissions in some cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Correction to “Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions from Composting”

Composting can divert organic waste from landfills, reduce landfill methane emissions, and recycle nutrients back to soils. However, the composting process is also a source of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. Researchers, regulators, and policy decision-makers all rely on emissions estimates to develop local emissions inventories and weigh competing waste diversion options, yet reported emission factors are difficult to interpret and highly variable. This review explores the impacts of waste characteristics, pretreatment processes, and composting conditions on CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, NH 3 , and VOC emissions by critically reviewing and analyzing 388 emission factors from 46 studies. The values reported to date suggest that CH 4 is the single largest contributor to 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) for yard waste composting, comprising approximately 80% of the total GWP 100 . For nitrogen-rich wastes including manure, mixed municipal organic waste, and wastewater treatment sludge, N 2 O is the largest contributor to GWP 100 , accounting for half to as much as 90% of the total GWP 100 . If waste is anaerobically digested prior to composting, N 2 O, NH 3 , and VOC emissions tend to decrease relative to composting the untreated waste. Effective pile management and aeration are key to minimizing CH 4 emissions. However, forced aeration can increase NH 3 emissions in some cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Remote Sensing Technique to Upscale Methane Emission Flux in a Subtropical Peatland

Abstract Quantification of methane (CH 4 ) gas emission from peat is critical to understand CH 4 budget from natural wetlands under a climate warming scenario. Previous studies have focused on prediction and mapping of CH 4 emission flux using process‐based models, while application of statistical‐empirical models for upscaling spatially sparse in situ measurements is scarce. In this study, we developed an empirical remote sensing upscaling approach to estimate CH 4 emission flux in the Everglades using limited in situ point‐based CH 4 emission flux measurements and Landsat data during 2013–2018. We spatially and temporally linked in situ data with Landsat surface reflectance based on temporally composite data sets and developed an object‐based machine learning framework to model and map CH 4 emission flux. An ensemble analysis of two machine learning models, k ‐Nearest Neighbor ( k ‐NN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), shows that the upscaling approach is promising for predicting CH 4 emission flux with a R 2 of 0.65 and 0.87 based on a fivefold cross‐validation for a dry season and wet season estimation, respectively. We generated emission flux map products that successfully revealed the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of CH 4 emission within the dominant freshwater marsh ecosystem in the Everglades. We conclude that Landsat is promising for upscaling and monitoring CH 4 emission flux and reducing the uncertainty in emission estimates from wetlands.

Zhang, Caiyun↗

Extension of Large Fire Emissions From Summer to Autumn and Its Drivers in the Western US

Abstract Burned areas in the western US have increased ten‐fold since 1980s, which are attributable to multiple factors, including increasing heat, changing precipitation patterns, and extended drought. To better understand how these factors contribute to large fire emissions (gridded monthly fire emissions >95th percentile of all the fire emissions in the western US; 0.009 Gg/month), we build a machine learning model to predict fire emissions (PM 2.5 ) over the western US at 0.25° resolution, interpreted using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). From the predictor contributions derived from XAI, we conduct k‐means clustering analysis to identify four clusters of predictor variables representing different drivers of large fire emissions. The four clusters feature the contributions of fuel load (Cluster 1) and different levels of dryness (Cluster 2–4), controlled by fuel moisture, drought condition, and fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns featuring high temperature, high pressure, and low relative humidity. In the past two decades, large fire emissions peak in summer. However, large fire emissions increased significantly in September and October in 2010–2020 relative to 2000–2009, extending the peak large fire emissions from summer to autumn. The larger enhancements of large fire emissions during autumn compared to summer are contributed by decreased fuel moisture, along with more frequent concurrent fire‐favorable large‐scale meteorological patterns and drought. These results highlight fuel drying as a common driver supported by multiple drivers, such as warmer temperature and more frequent synoptic patterns favorable for fires, in increasing the autumn risk of large fire emissions across the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study of vacuum ultraviolet emission in helium and helium/nitrogen mixtures

Helium is frequently used as a working medium for the generation of plasmas and is capable of energetic photon emissions. These energetic photon emissions are often attributed to the formation of helium excimer and subsequent photon emission. When the plasma device is exposed to another gas, such as nitrogen, this energetic photon emission can cause photoionization and further ionization wave penetration into the additional gas. Often ignored are the helium resonance emissions that are assumed to be radiation trapped and therefore not pertinent to photoionization. Here, experimental evidence for the presence of helium atomic emission in a pulsed discharge at ten’s of Torr is shown. Simulations of a discharge in similar conditions agree with the experimental measurements. In this context, the role of atomic and molecular helium light emission on photoionization of molecular nitrogen in an ionization wave is studied using a kinetic modeling approach that accounts for radiation dynamics in a developing low-temperature plasma. Three different mixtures of helium at a total pressure of 250 Torr are studied in simulation. Photoionization of the nitrogen molecule by vacuum ultraviolet helium emission is used as the only seed source ahead of the ionization front. It is found that even though radiation trapped, the atomic helium emission lines are the significant source of photoionization of nitrogen. The significant effect of radiation trapped photon emission on ionization wave dynamics demonstrates the need to consider these radiation dynamics in plasma reactors where self-absorbed radiation is ignored.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Sustainability Index: a new tool to breed for reduced greenhouse-gas emissions intensity in Australian dairy cattle

Context The Australian dairy industry has a target to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions intensity by 30% between 2015 and 2030. At the animal level, apart from nutritional modifications and other management practices, selecting animals that emit less GHG can be a cost-effective and long-term strategy. Given the world’s demand for protein is increasing, selecting for animals with lower GHG emissions per unit of production, i.e. emissions intensity, is a realistic approach that addresses the key issue of emissions reduction while maintaining farm productivity. Aim To develop a selection index for Australian dairy cattle to breed for reduced emissions intensity. Methods The Sustainability Index was built based on the existing Balanced Performance Index (BPI) but placed greater emphasis on production, survival, health and feed efficiency. Key results In August 2022, DataGene released the Sustainability Index that can be used by dairy farmers to select animals with lower environmental footprints. Compared with BPI, the weights for protein, fat, survival, mastitis resistance and feed efficiency increased by 2.6-, 1.4-, 2.8-, 1.3- and 3.8-fold respectively. It is expected that with the use of the Sustainability Index, emissions intensity will be reduced by 7.64%, 8.96% and 5.52% respectively in Holstein, Jersey and Red breeds by 2050, compared with the 2015 level. The corresponding values when selecting for BPI were 6.34%, 7.91% and 5.23% respectively. However, the trade-off in BPI when using the Sustainability Index will be AUD0.79, AUD0.83, AUD0.22 per cow per year for Holstein, Jersey and Red breeds respectively. Conclusions The current profit index BPI has contributed to reduction in emissions intensity. To enhance the rate of improvement in emissions intensity, the Sustainability Index can be used with minimal impacts on profit. Implications To breed for lower emissions intensity, farmers can select animals with high Sustainability Index values that are published on DataVat (datavat.com.au) and the Good Bulls App. To lower gross emissions, combinations of additional measures such as management of diet, adjustment to animal numbers, management of stored manure, and appropriate use of carbon neutral fertiliser, renewable fuels and energy, will need to be adopted on farms.

Agriculture↗

Core collapse supernova gravitational wave emission for progenitors of 9.6, 15, and 25 M ⊙

Here, we present gravitational wave emission predictions based on three core collapse supernova simulations corresponding to three different progenitor masses. The masses span a large range, between 9.6 and 25M ⊙ , are all initially nonrotating, and are of two metallicities: zero and solar. We compute both the temporal evolution of the gravitational wave strains for both the plus and the cross polarizations, as well as their spectral decomposition and characteristic strains. The temporal evolution of our zero metallicity 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model is distinct from the temporal evolution of our solar metallicity 15M ⊙ progenitor model and our zero metallicity 25M ⊙ progenitor model. In the former case, the high-frequency gravitational wave emission is largely confined to a brief time period ~75 ms after bounce, whereas in the latter two cases high-frequency emission does not commence until ~125 ms after bounce or later. The excitation mechanisms of the high-frequency emission in all three cases correspond to proto-neutron star convection and accretion onto the proto-neutron star from the convective gain layer above it, with the former playing the dominant role for most of the evolution. The low-frequency emission in all three models exhibits very similar behavior. At frequencies below ~250 Hz, gravitational waves are emitted by neutrino-driven convection and the standing accretion shock instability (SASI). This emission extends throughout the simulations when a gain region is present. In all three models, explosion is observed at ~125, ~500, and ~250 ms after bounce in the 9.6, 15, and 25M ⊙ progenitor models, respectively. At these times, the low-frequency gravitational wave emission is joined by very low-frequency emission, below ~10 Hz. These very low-frequency episodes are the result of explosion and begin at the above designated explosion times in each of our models. Our characteristic strains tell us that, in principle, all three gravitational wave signals would be detectable by current-generation detectors for a supernova at a distance of 10 kpc. However, our 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model is a significantly weaker source of gravitational waves, with strain amplitudes approximately 5–10 times less than in our other two models. The characteristic strain for this model tells us that such a supernova would be detectable only within a much more narrow frequency range around the maximum sensitivity of today’s detectors. Finally, in our 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model, we see very high-frequency gravitational radiation, extending up to ~2000 Hz. This feature results from the interaction of shock- and deleptonization-induced convection with perturbations introduced in the progenitor by nuclear burning during core collapse. While unique to the 9.6M ⊙ progenitor model analyzed here, this very high-frequency emission may, in fact, be a generic feature of the predictions for the gravitational wave emission from all core collapse supernova models when simulations are performed with three-dimensional progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The role of shale gas in shaping the U.S. long-run CO 2 emissions

The shale gas boom in the U.S. has lowered the U.S. CO 2 emissions in recent years mainly through substitution of gas for coal in power generation. Will the shale gas boom reduce the emissions in the long-run as well? To study this, we consider a counterfactual without the shale gas boom based on a general equilibrium modeling for the 2011 U.S. economy. To enhance the power sector modeling, the supply responses of coal-fired and gas-fired generations are calibrated to existing research. We find that if gas prices remain at 2007 levels in 2011, only a model setting that allows very little reduction in electricity demand, reflecting a short-run demand response, generates an increase in economy-wide emissions. For all other cases, the higher gas price under the counterfactual will have a dampening effect on economic activities and consequently lowers economy-wide emissions, even though the power sector emissions may increase due to the gas-to-coal switch. In other words, without any policy intervention, although the shale gas boom could reduce emissions in the short run, it may lead to higher emissions in the long run if the low gas prices persist. Our finding suggests that extrapolating the current decline in emissions due to the shale gas boom to the distant future could be misleading. Instead, if curbing emissions is the goal, rather than depending upon the cheap gas, policies and measures for cutting emissions remain imperative.

Chen, Y. -H. Henry↗

Automated, Unmanned Detection and Quantification of Fugitive Methane Emissions

Compressor stations used to move natural gas are one of the largest sources of fugitive methane emissions in the midstream sector, accounting for approximately 50% of all fugitive emissions (Zimmerle et al., 2015). This problem is most widespread at reciprocating compressors (Subramanian et al., 2015) where faulty seals are a key contributor to methane emissions (Johnson et al., 2015). As such, there is a significant need for a robust technology that could provide an early indication of an unexpected emission. Equally important, the technology needs to be able to account for biogenic versus anthropogenic sources of methane. One means of indirectly making this determination, is to leverage optical technologies that can autonomously pinpoint the source of such leaks. This presentation discusses recent work funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), focused on the development of an innovative remote sensing technology that can reliably and autonomously detect fugitive methane emissions in near real-time, using computer vision and deep learning. The technology called the Smart Methane Leak Detection (SLED/M) system was initially developed to monitor facilities such as compressor stations in a stationary, pan-tilt-zoom configuration. The system has recently been adapted to monitor facilities from an unmanned aerial system (UAS). The speed and maneuverability of UAS platforms are attractive to leak detection and repair program operators, but introduce several challenges. Many existing methane detection algorithms rely on mostly static backgrounds becoming unusable with motion. In addition, top-down views of fugitive methane emissions present differently in Optical Gas Imagers (OGI) compared to looking across the plume. Our work has focused on overcoming these challenges, enhancing the operators ability to detect methane emissions, and pinpoint their sources. Another recent adaptation to SLED/M is the ability to quantify methane emissions using passive sensors (OGI, thermal camera), environmental conditions, plume modeling, and deep learning. SLED/M advances the state-of-the-art for methane emission detection and quantification by focusing on three key critical criteria for effective methane emission mitigation: (1) autonomy (no need for a human to be in the loop), (2) high reliability (low false alarm rates), and (3) real-time performance. Results from this work will be presented.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Local Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Across the U.S.

The dependence on gasoline-powered light-duty automobiles has made U.S. households vulnerable to the burden of fuel costs. Tailpipe emissions from these vehicles constitute 58% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S., which are damaging to the environment (EPA, 2023). The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has been shown to effectively reduce fuel costs and GHG emissions. However, local effects on these benefits are not well understood by American consumers, potentially limiting adoption and therefore the realization of PEV benefits at scale (MacInnis & Krosnick, 2020; EY Americas, 2023). To fill this research gap, this study estimates the fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions at the state and ZIP code levels by considering local fuel prices, vehicle class preference, average vehicle model year, fuel efficiencies, and driving intensities. The study's findings reveal that the adoption of PEVs can yield substantial benefits in terms of fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions nationwide. Specifically, driving a battery electric vehicle (BEV) is estimated to result in annual savings of up to $\$2,200$, while driving a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) can lead to savings up to $\$1,500$, when compared to an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) of equivalent size. Moreover, using population-weighted averages by ZIP code, BEVs and PHEVs show the potential to save 400 and 200 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per mile, respectively, compared to a representative ICEV of the same class. The magnitude of fuel cost savings and emissions reduction vary by region due to various factors. Generally, regions with high gasoline prices, low electricity prices, preferences for larger vehicles, and high driving intensities tend to see relatively large fuel savings. The emissions reductions are more pronounced in areas with clean grids where consumer preferences lie with large vehicles. This regional variability underscores the importance of considering local contextual factors when assessing the potential benefits of PEV adoption. In more than 99% of U.S. ZIP codes, PEVs result in overall savings in fuel use (and subsequent costs) and GHG emissions. While not a central focus of this analysis, reductions in GHG tailpipe emissions from PEV adoption would also come with reductions in criteria pollutant emissions, contributing to improved local air quality depending on the PEV penetration, population density, and electricity generation infrastructure in the locality.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Advancing Development of Emissions Detection (Final Report)

This document is the final report to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE for contract DE-FE0031873) awarded to Colorado State University (CSU). CSU and partners at Harrisburg University of Science and Technology, University of Texas Arlington, and University of Texas at Austin organized several testing rounds to provide knowledge focused on advancing the detection capabilities of emissions monitoring devices. With this funding opportunity the research group began by establishing the Advancing the Development of Emission Detection (ADED) program, with the goal focused on enhancing the accuracy, reliability, and field applicability of methane detection technologies. This effort aimed to address the critical challenges of identifying and quantifying methane emissions while enabling industry stakeholders to meet regulatory compliance and environmental sustainability goals. The program engaged with industry, government, and technology stakeholders to promote adoption and consensus on testing techniques for methane detection solutions. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, contributes significantly to global warming, and the oil and natural gas (O&G) sector is a primary source of methane emissions. Regulatory measures such as leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs have been implemented to address emissions. However, traditional LDAR approaches, reliant on handheld and component-level measurements, are resource-intensive. To address these limitations and move with evolving regulations, advanced methane technologies are emerging. These solutions include ground-based sensors, mobile systems (e.g., drones, vehicles, and aircraft), and satellite-based platforms. They offer innovative capabilities for autonomous monitoring, larger spatial coverage, and emission quantification using methods such as tracer gas techniques and inverse modeling with Gaussian plume analysis. The ADED program began with creating protocols for methane controlled release (CR) testing these continuous monitoring (CM) and survey technologies that detect and monitor methane emissions at O&G facilities. The protocols were then implemented throughout testing of CM and survey devices at CSU’s Methane Emissions Technology Evaluation Center (METEC) facility from 2021 through 2024. As apart of the protocol, solutions that tested under the ADED program installed their solutions at METEC, documented their system under test, and provided detection reports to the METEC team for analysis. The METEC team would provide the solutions with analyzed reports of their emissions and ground truth data of the releases conducted during their testing session. Under the ADED program, CMs were also tested at O&G facilities for a six week test run of challenge release (ChR) releases. The findings from the ADED program underscore the critical role of collaborative research and innovation in tackling methane emissions, offering a pathway for the oil and gas sector to achieve significant environmental and economic benefits. Results from METEC testing saw improvement of performance and accuracy across all solutions over the extent of the ADED experiments. The results also showed a variance in CM solution performance between CRs and ChRs. That variance pushed the team to further analyze the differences between CR testing environments and field conditions. With the drive from regulations and that variance in field conditions, the ADED team began designing a new CR testing protocol and additions to the METEC testing facility. The METEC team is furthering the progress made through the ADED program with awarded funding from DE-FE0032276. This funding pushes the development of METEC’s addition with new equipment, allowing for an updated facility layout. METEC still facilitates for traditional facilities, with a legacy pad, while expanding an new design based on how O&G infrastructure has Final Report - Contract Number: DE-FE0031873 been changed over the last decade. Throughout the ADED program the team has also been working with international partners to ensure staying in the trend globally. International partners have been essential in moving the new protocol forward to implement into CR testing at the METEC facility in Spring 2025.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mitigation of Acute Ammonia Emissions With Biochar During Swine Manure Agitation Before Pump-Out: Proof-of-the-Concept

Ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from animal agriculture can cause eutrophication of water ecosystems and are precursors to secondary particulate matter (PM 2 .5 ). NH 3 emissions from stored swine manure represent nutrient loss affecting the fertilizing value of manure. The short-term emission bursts occur when farmers agitate manure before emptying storage and fertilizing fields. There is no proven technology to mitigate gaseous emissions during agitation, while the hazards of acute releases (e.g., H 2 S) are well-known. Biochar mitigates NH 3 emissions from manure over the long-term. The objective of this research was to evaluate the mitigation of acute NH 3 emissions during/after agitation. Two biochars, highly alkaline and porous (HAP from corn stover) and red oak (RO), were tested. The 6 and 12 mm-thick layers of biochar powder were surficial applied followed by 3 min agitation. NH 3 concentrations were measured before/during/after agitation. Mitigation was assessed by comparing: (i) the maximum (peak) flux, (ii) total emission (from agitation start till NH 3 concentration returned to the before-agitation), and (iii) the total emissions during agitation. The 12 mm HAP significantly ( p < 0.05) reduced (i–iii) by 63, 70, and 85%, respectively. The 6 mm HAP significantly reduced (i–iii) by 76, 75, and 78%, respectively. The 12 mm RO significantly reduced (i–iii) by 9, 53, and 57%, respectively. The 6 mm RO significantly reduced (i–iii) by 61, 86, and 63%, respectively. The NH 3 emission kinetics model confirmed that a 6 mm dose was just as effective as the larger dose. More research is needed to optimize and scale-up mitigating emissions and retention of nutrients in manure with biochar.

Chen, Baitong↗

MIXv2: a long-term mosaic emission inventory for Asia (2010–2017)

The MIXv2 Asian emission inventory is developed under the framework of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase IV and produced from a mosaic of up-to-date regional emission inventories. We estimated the emissions for anthropogenic and biomass burning sources covering 23 countries and regions in East, Southeast and South Asia and aggregated emissions to a uniform spatial and temporal resolution for seven sectors: power, industry, residential, transportation, agriculture, open biomass burning and shipping. Compared to MIXv1, we extended the dataset to 2010–2017, included emissions of open biomass burning and shipping, and provided model-ready emissions of SAPRC99, SAPRC07, and CB05. A series of unit-based point source information was incorporated covering power plants in China and India. A consistent speciation framework for non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) was applied to develop emissions by three chemical mechanisms. The total Asian emissions for anthropogenic/open biomass sectors in 2017 are estimated as follows: 41.6/1.1 Tg NO x , 33.2/0.1 Tg SO 2 , 258.2/20.6 Tg CO, 61.8/8.2 Tg NMVOC, 28.3/0.3 Tg NH 3 , 24.0/2.6 Tg PM 10 , 16.7/2.0 Tg PM 2.5 , 2.7/0.1 Tg BC (black carbon), 5.3/0.9 Tg OC (organic carbon), and 18.0/0.4 Pg CO 2 . The contributions of India and Southeast Asia were emerging in Asia during 2010–2017, especially for SO 2 , NH 3 and particulate matter. Gridded emissions at a spatial resolution of 0.1° with monthly variations are now publicly available. This updated long-term emission mosaic inventory is ready to facilitate air quality and climate model simulations, as well as policymaking and associated analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO 2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is -0.36 to 0.29°C, with a model ensemble mean of -0.07 °C, median of -0.05°C, and standard deviation of 0.19°C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

MacDougall, Andrew H.↗

The zero-emissions cost of energy: a policy concept

The energy sector generates over 70% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but existing energy-climate policies do little to reduce GHG emissions to prevent climate change. We present a new carbon tax policy concept in which energy users would be taxed an amount equal to the cost of cleaning up the emissions that they create, wherein the tax revenues would be used to operate negative emissions technologies. The policy is based on applying the zero-emissions cost (ZEC) metric to energy prices, which includes the 'regular' cost of an energy source plus the cost of sequestering its emissions. Using the ZEC, (a) the energy sector would be emissions-neutral, (b) biofuels would be cheaper than petroleum fuels, and (c) renewable electricity would be cheaper than fossil-fuel electricity. We calculate the energy spending as a fraction of gross domestic product for 'regular' and ZEC cost scenarios. Implementing the ZEC carbon-tax policy would enable a monumental shift to a net-zero emissions energy sector, but carries a significant risk of causing an economic recession. The summary point of this commentary is to demonstrate a pathway to achieve net-zero GHG emissions from the US energy sector, and to contemplate the associated economic impacts on our society.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗