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DOE OSTI2021

Variable Renewable Energy Participation in U.S. Ancillary Services Markets: Economic Evaluation and Key Issues

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is not yet meaningfully participating in U.S. ancillary services (AS) markets. VRE participation in AS markets could provide a new source of revenues for VRE resource owners to offset declining energy and capacity values and a new tool for power system operators to address emerging system constraints. This paper uses a price-taker dispatch model and historical prices to estimate the economic value of standalone and hybrid (battery-paired) VRE participation in AS markets, from resource owner and electricity system perspectives, in each of the seven U.S. independent system operator and regional transmission organization (ISO/RTO) markets. Across ISO/RTO markets, average (2015-2019) simulated incremental revenues from regulation market participation were $\$$0.0-2.9/MWh (+0-15% of revenue without participation) for standalone VRE owners and $\$$1-33/MWh (+1-69%) for hybrid VRE owners. However, ISO/RTO reserve markets are relatively thin and have the potential to become saturated by energy storage projects that are currently in ISO/RTO interconnection queues. In most markets, standalone and hybrid VRE were able to provide regulation reserves during periods with high regulation prices, suggesting that VRE participation in AS markets could have high system value. The analysis highlights the value of separate upward and downward regulation products and suggests that ISOs/RTOs might consider initially focusing on enabling hybrid VRE provision of AS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Economic evaluation of variable renewable energy participation in U.S. ancillary services markets

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is not yet meaningfully participating in U.S. ancillary services (AS) markets. VRE participation in AS markets could provide a new source of revenue for VRE resource owners to offset declining energy and capacity values and a new tool for power system operators to address emerging system constraints. This paper uses a price-taker dispatch model and historical prices to estimate the economic value of standalone and hybrid (battery-paired) VRE participation in AS markets, from the resource owner and electricity system perspectives, in each of the seven U.S. independent system operator and regional transmission organization (ISO/RTO) markets where ancillary service prices are set. Across ISO/RTO markets, average (2015–2019) simulated incremental revenues from power regulation market participation were 0.0–2.9 USD/MWh (+0–15% of revenue without participation) for standalone VRE owners and 1–33 USD/MWh (+1–69%) for hybrid VRE owners. However, ISO/RTO reserve markets are relatively thin and have the potential to become saturated by energy storage projects that are currently in ISO/RTO interconnection queues. In most markets, standalone and hybrid VRE could provide power regulation reserves during periods with high power regulation prices, suggesting that VRE participation in AS markets could have high system value. The analysis highlights the relevance of separate upward and downward power regulation products and indicates that ISOs/RTOs might consider initially focusing on enabling hybrid VRE provision of AS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

wa-hls4ml: A Benchmark and Surrogate Models for hls4ml Resource and Latency Estimation

As machine learning (ML) is increasingly implemented in hardware to address real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced toolchains has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as hardware synthesis, are becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To mitigate these emerging constraints, multipleefforts have been undertaken to develop an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of synthesized ML accelerator architectures. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of over 680 000 fully connected and convolutional neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, and the average performance across a subset of the dataset. Additionally, we introduce GNN- and transformer-based surrogate models that predict latency and resources for ML accelerators. We present the architecture and performance of the models and find that the models generally predict latency and resources for the 75% percentile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset.

Hawks, Benjamin G. [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

wa-hls4ml: A Benchmark and Surrogate Models for hls4ml Resource and Latency Estimation

As machine learning (ML) is increasingly implemented in hardware to address real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced toolchains has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as hardware synthesis, are becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To mitigate these emerging constraints, multiple efforts have been undertaken to develop an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of ML accelerator architectures. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of over 680,000 fully connected and convolutional neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, and the average performance across a subset of the dataset. Additionally, we introduce GNN- and transformer-based surrogate models that predict latency and resources for ML accelerators. We present the architecture and performance of the models and find that the models generally predict latency and resources for the 75% percentile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset.

Hawks, Benjamin [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157000288↗

DOE OSTI2023

Material Design Strategies for Recovery of Critical Resources from Water

Population growth, urbanization, and decarbonization efforts are collectively straining the supply of limited resources that are necessary to produce batteries, electronics, chemicals, fertilizers, and other important products. Securing the supply chains of these critical resources via the development of separation technologies for their recovery represents a major global challenge to ensure stability and security. Surface water, groundwater, and wastewater are emerging as potential new sources to bolster these supply chains. Recently, a variety of material-based technologies have been developed and employed for separations and resource recovery in water. Judicious selection and design of these materials to tune their properties for targeting specific solutes is central to realizing the potential of water as a source for critical resources. Here, the materials that are developed for membranes, sorbents, catalysts, electrodes, and interfacial solar steam generators that demonstrate promise for applications in critical resource recovery are reviewed. In addition, a critical perspective is offered on the grand challenges and key research directions that need to be addressed to improve their practical viability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Zinc batteries for grid-scale energy storage: Challenges, opportunities, and future directions

The global electricity sector is undergoing rapid transformation, increasing demand for reliable stationary energy storage and intensifying the need for safe, cost-effective, and scalable technologies for grid-scale applications. While lithium-ion batteries currently dominate the market, concerns over cost, safety, and resource availability motivate the exploration of alternative chemistries. Zinc-based batteries have emerged as a promising option due to the abundance, low cost, and wide geographic distribution of zinc, combined with the inherent safety of aqueous electrolytes. This perspective examines the potential of zinc batteries for stationary energy storage, with particular focus on rechargeable zinc-air systems. We discuss the evolution of zinc battery technologies and compare zinc-air, zinc-bromine, nickel-zinc, and aqueous zinc-ion chemistries, highlighting their advantages for grid applications. Key challenges limiting rechargeable zinc battery performance are analyzed, including dendrite formation and corrosion at the zinc anode, electrolyte degradation from carbonation and evaporation, and sluggish oxygen electrocatalysis at the air cathode. Emerging strategies to address these limitations are reviewed, including advanced electrode architectures, electrolyte engineering, catalyst development, and system-level design improvements. Lastly, we outline future research directions and opportunities for developing durable, efficient, and economically viable zinc-based energy storage systems for grid-scale applications.

Aqueous electrolytes↗

DOE OSTI2022

Miktoarm Star Polymers: Synthesis and Applications

Polymers with precisely controlled structure and function are in high demand across a diverse array of applications spanning the life sciences and nanotechnology. One prototypical example is a class of branched block copolymers known as miktoarm stars (μ-stars), which contain two or more arm compositions connected at a common junction. Miktoarm stars have attracted considerable attention since their physical properties can be different from conventional linear block copolymers. This perspective highlights the latest developments and historical context in the field of miktoarm star polymers, including design strategies, synthetic techniques, and advanced characterization tools used to avoid common preparation pitfalls and tailor properties for emerging applications. Furthermore, our contemporary perspective on μ-star polymers is a resource for inspiring future research into this exciting class of materials at the intersection of chemistry, physics, and advanced technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES STUDY ON ENERGY MATERIALS: THERMOELECTRIC MATERIAL TETRAHEDRITE AND LITHIUM ION CONDUCTOR

Development of efficient energy materials is critical in order to ease the energy demand and reduce our dependence of fossil fuel. Thermoelectric materials are promising due to their capability of generating electrical power by recovering waste heat. The performance of thermoelectric materials is quantified by a dimensionless figure of merit zT, which depends on their properties such as electrical conductivity, Seebeck coefficient and thermal conductivity. Tetrahedrites, a copper antimony sulfosalt mineral, typified by Cu 12-x MxSb 4 S 13 , where M is a transition metal element such as Ni, Zn, Fe or Mn, have great potential for thermoelectric application due to their relatively high zT (close to 1 at 700 K), earth-abundance, environmental friendliness, favorable electrical properties, and most importantly intrinsic low lattice thermal conductivity (less than 1 W m -1 K -1 ) in wide temperature. In addition to energy recovery, reliable energy storage devices are also emerging to relieve the energy demand and improve the efficiency of consuming energy resources. Lithium-ion batteries are known to be reliable and successful electrochemical energy storage devices and appliable in various aspects, including laptops, smartphones and electrical vehicles. Lithium phosphorous oxynitride (LiPON) are widely used as thin-film solid-state electrolytes in Li-ion battery, which is the only demonstrated solid-state electrolyte that is quite stable in direct contact with Li metal at potentials from 0-5 V. However, the structure of LiPON, the effects of N doping, and the origin of its good electrochemical stability remains inconclusive. In this thesis, reliable modeling techniques accompanied with experimental tools, are applied to study the thermoelectric material tetrahedrite and the ionic conductor LiPON, in order to study their structural and dynamical properties. Accurate and efficient density-functional theory (DFT) and density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) methods, combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are utilized in order to investigate the structures and properties of these energy materials. The incoherent and coherent atomic dynamics study of tetrahedrite Cu 10.5 NiZn 0.5 Sb 4 S 13 provides the origin of softening upon cooling by investigate the motion of Cu12e at different temperatures. The dynamic structure factors in the longitudinal and transverse direction will also be discussed. The Cu movement of Cu-rich tetrahedrite Cu 14 Sb 4 S 13 is revealed by Cu self-diffusivity, nuclear density map and “nudged elastic band” (NEB). Moreover, we investigate the effect of simulation cell size and basis sets on the DFT-based MD simulation results using tetrahedrite Cu1 0 Zn 2 Sb 4 S 13 thermoelectric as a model material, showing the advantage of larger cell by accessing smaller Q range. In addition, the low-temperature structural properties of Cu 12 Sb 4 S 13 is measured by neutron diffraction, which indicates that no cubic to tetragonal transition occurs at metal-semiconductor transition (MST) temperature. Thermoelectric properties such as Seebeck coefficient, electrical resistivity and electrical thermal conductivity will also be investigated. DFTB method is implemented to study the structure and transport properties of Li 3 PO 4 and LiPON, while the exploration of N doping effect is included. Lastly, the LiPON/Li interphase will be revealed in order to study the origin of electrochemical stability.

Li, Junchao↗

DOE OSTI2020

STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES STUDY ON ENERGY MATERIALS: THERMOELECTRIC MATERIAL TETRAHEDRITE AND LITHIUM ION CONDUCTOR LiPON

Development of efficient energy materials is critical in order to ease the energy demand and reduce our dependence of fossil fuel. Thermoelectric materials are promising due to their capability of generating electrical power by recovering waste heat. The performance of thermoelectric materials is quantified by a dimensionless figure of merit zT, which depends on their properties such as electrical conductivity, Seebeck coefficient and thermal conductivity. Tetrahedrites, a copper antimony sulfosalt mineral, typified by Cu12-xMxSb4S13, where M is a transition metal element such as Ni, Zn, Fe or Mn, have great potential for thermoelectric application due to their relatively high zT (close to 1 at 700 K), earth-abundance, environmental friendliness, favorable electrical properties, and most importantly intrinsic low lattice thermal conductivity (less than 1 W m-1 K-1) in wide temperature. In addition to energy recovery, reliable energy storage devices are also emerging to relieve the energy demand and improve the efficiency of consuming energy resources. Lithium-ion batteries are known to be reliable and successful electrochemical energy storage devices and appliable in various aspects, including laptops, smartphones and electrical vehicles. Lithium phosphorous oxynitride (LiPON) are widely used as thin-film solid-state electrolytes in Li-ion battery, which is the only demonstrated solid-state electrolyte that is quite stable in direct contact with Li metal at potentials from 0-5 V. However, the structure of LiPON, the effects of N doping, and the origin of its good electrochemical stability remains inconclusive.In this thesis, reliable modeling techniques accompanied with experimental tools, are applied to study the thermoelectric material tetrahedrite and the ionic conductor LiPON, in order to study their structural and dynamical properties. Accurate and efficient density-functional theory (DFT) and density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) methods, combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are utilized in order to investigate the structures and properties of these energy materials. The incoherent and coherent atomic dynamics study of tetrahedrite Cu10.5NiZn0.5Sb4S13 provides the origin of softening upon cooling by investigate the motion of Cu12e at different temperatures. The dynamic structure factors in the longitudinal and transverse direction will also be discussed. The Cu movement of Cu-rich tetrahedrite Cu14Sb4S13 is revealed by Cu self-diffusivity, nuclear density map and "nudged elastic band" (NEB). Moreover, we investigate the effect of simulation cell size and basis sets on the DFT-based MD simulation results using tetrahedrite Cu10Zn2Sb4S13 thermoelectric as a model material, showing the advantage of larger cell by accessing smaller Q range. In addition, the low-temperature structural properties of Cu12Sb4S13 is measured by neutron diffraction, which indicates that no cubic to tetragonal transition occurs at metal-semiconductor transition (MST) temperature. Thermoelectric properties such as Seebeck coefficient, electrical resistivity and electrical thermal conductivity will also be investigated. DFTB method is implemented to study the structure and transport properties of Li3PO4 and LiPON, while the exploration of N doping effect is included. Lastly, the LiPON/Li interphase will be revealed in order to study the origin of electrochemical stability

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

A unifying equation for fermentation sustainability across the titer-rate-yield landscape

Industrial fermentation is central to the sustainable production of fuels and chemicals, yet commercial viability of emerging technologies hinges on improving fermentation titer, rate, and yield (TRY). How these metrics shape system cost remains difficult to generalize due to complex interactions among feedstocks, fermentation, separations, catalytic upgrading, waste management, and facility design. Here, we systematically map theoretical fermentation performance spaces (formed by all potential TRY combinations) for 32 representative biomanufacturing facilities—spanning distinct choices for feedstocks, fermentation regimes and products, separations, and catalytic upgrading—by simulating and evaluating them (via techno-economic analysis, TEA) under uncertainty (600,000 Monte Carlo simulations) and across TRY combinations (7500 TRY combinations for each of 32 configurations). Across this wide design and thermodynamic simulation space, we find the relationship between fermentation TRY and system cost is captured by a simple, generalizable mathematical equation (R 2 of 0.992 − 1.000 across our simulations; 0.954 − 1.000 when validated against prior studies that used different tools). We use this equation to elucidate key drivers that shape cost sensitivity to fermentation performance, generating widely applicable insights. By demonstrating a unifying relationship governs the impact of fermentation on biomanufacturing economics, this work establishes a foundation for agile, holistically predictive, resource-efficient strategies to prioritize fermentation research and development needs and accelerate commercialization of emerging biomanufacturing technologies.

applied mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Emergent Chemical Behavior in Mixed Food and Lignocellulosic Green Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising strategy for the conversion of energy-dense waste streams to fuels. Mixed-feed HTL aggregates multiple feed streams to achieve greater scales that capitalize on local resources, hence lowering costs. The potential for new pathways and products upon feedstock blending becomes a compounding level of complexity when unlocking emergent chemistries. Here, food and green waste streams were evaluated under HTL conditions (300 °C, 1 h) to understand the effect of feed molecular composition on product distributions and mechanisms. Thousands of emergent chemical compounds were detected via Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, ultimately leading to the emergence of two dominant outcomes. First, the presence of small amounts of food waste into green waste results in substantial decarboxylation and subsequent polymerization to biocrude than chars. Second, in the other limit, small amounts of green waste promote the capping of oxygenates into the biodiesel range, such as with the emergence of fatty acid methyl esters.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interaction between the emerging components of online shopping and in-person activities: insights from a behavioral survey

The rise of technological advancements has led to the commonplace practice of online shopping for retail, grocery, and food. However, little research has been conducted on the interplay of these components in burdened communities (BCs) that face issues of marginalization and limited access to digital resources. Here, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of travel behavior changes by analyzing the interconnectedness of the emerging components of online shopping (retail, grocery, and food) and in-person activities in both BCs and non-BCs. A unique household-level database is created by linking the 2021 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey and the US Department of Transportation’s burdened community databases, and a conditional mixed process model is estimated to account for unobserved endogeneity. The findings suggest households living in BCs are less likely to order online retail goods and groceries compared to non-BC households. Additionally, the probability of making more restaurant trips decreases for households living in BCs. The study highlights the digital divide that exists in BCs and the differences in online and in-person shopping activities across socioeconomic levels. Policymakers may address these disparities to promote better access to goods and services for all. Besides, planners may need to improve the travel demand models by accounting for the emerging components of online shopping and the trip frequencies by purpose in BCs.

Digital Divide↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Assurance Checklist for Homeowners and Installers

This document provides a comprehensive Digital Assurance Checklist for securing behind-the-meter energy assets, focusing on both installers and homeowners. As distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar PV and battery storage become integral to residential energy systems, cybersecurity emerges as a critical component of reliability and safety. The guide outlines actionable steps for installers during pre-installation, commissioning, and post-installation phases, emphasizing practices like network segmentation, credential management, firmware validation, and homeowner education. For homeowners, the document introduces a tiered approach to cyber hygiene—from essential measures like strong Wi-Fi credentials and automatic updates to advanced strategies such as network segmentation, DNS filtering, and intrusion detection. By adopting these practices, stakeholders can mitigate cyber risks, safeguard energy infrastructure, and ensure resilient, secure operation of DER systems. Additional resources and references to industry standards are included to support implementation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Digital Assurance Checklist for Homeowners and Installers

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper presents the analysis which help visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient grid operations.

behind-the-meter↗

DOE OSTI2021

Research Priorities and Opportunities in United States Wholesale Electricity Markets

The power system is currently undergoing a number of changes, including a rapidly evolving resource mix, growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), more active consumer participation, increased deployment of energy storage and hybrid resources, and more advanced communication and control requirements. These changes in the power system present numerous technical, economic, implementation, and policy challenges and research opportunities for power system operators. To help address these challenges, a collaboration among five research institutions—Argonne National Laboratory, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the Electric Power Research Institute, and Johns Hopkins University—has been established to provide technical assistance to the seven U.S. Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs). The 3-year project aims to leverage the advanced methods, tools, datasets, and resources of the collaborators to provide robust analytical support to address the high-priority market challenges that will be faced in the 2- to 10-year time horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cement and concrete as carbon sinks: Transforming a climate challenge into a carbon storage opportunity

Cement and concrete, while traditionally recognized as the main contributors to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, also have untapped capacity to serve as substantial and scalable carbon sinks. This perspective examines how engineered mineral carbonation can transform cement-based materials into functional carbon storage systems, generating both environmental and economic value. We review the fundamental mechanisms of CO 2 uptake in cementitious systems, highlighting current limitations in reaction kinetics, phase control, and durability under varying environmental conditions. Emphasis is placed on the utilization of alkaline industrial residues and emerging magnesium-based cements, which offer synergistic pathways for carbon sequestration and circular resource use. We further assess the performance trade-offs associated with CO 2 uptake and the feasibility of deploying these technologies on industrial scales. A strategic roadmap is proposed that integrates scientific innovation, regulatory alignment, and carbon accounting in the life cycle to accelerate the adoption of carbon-storing concrete. This perspective provides a comprehensive framework to advance cement and concrete as engineered carbon sinks and supports the transition to a climate-positive construction industry.

Carbon storage↗