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DOE OSTI2020

Forest responses to simulated elevated CO 2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO 2 on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO 2 -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quench dynamics of two-component dipolar fermions subject to a quasiperiodic potential

Motivated by recent experiments in fermionic polar gases, we study the nonequilibrium dynamics of two-component dipolar fermions subject to a quasiperiodic potential. We investigate the localization of charge and spin degrees of freedom time evolving with a long-range spin-SU(2) symmetric fermionic Hamiltonian by calculating experimentally accessible dynamical observables. To study the nonequilibrium dynamics, we start the time evolution with two initial states at half-filling: (i) product state with doublons |↑↓0↑↓0↑↓0↑↓0↑↓$\rangle$ and (ii) product state with singlons |↑↓↑↓↑↓↑↓↑↓$\rangle$. We carried out the real-time evolution via the fermionic Hamiltonian using exact diagonalization (ED) and the time-dependent variational principle (TDVP) for finite matrix product states (MPS), within experimentally relevant timescales. For the product state with doublons, we observe a delocalized to localized phase transition varying disorder strengths by monitoring the decay of charge imbalance with time. For the long-range interacting Hamiltonian of our focus, and in the presence of strong enough disorder, starting the time evolution with singlons we find a strong reduction in the spin delocalization, contrary to results of previous studies using the disordered short-range (on-site) Hubbard model with SU(2) symmetry. In addition to the quench dynamics, we also demonstrate the localization of charge and spin in the full energy spectrum of the long-range spin-SU(2) symmetric Hamiltonian by monitoring spin and charge autocorrelation functions. Finally, our predictions for localization of both charge and spin should be observable in ultracold experiments with fermionic dipolar atoms subject to a quasiperiodic potential.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupling flux balance analysis with reactive transport modeling through machine learning for rapid and stable simulation of microbial metabolic switching

Integrating genome-scale metabolic networks with reactive transport models (RTMs) provides a detailed description of the dynamic changes in microbial growth and metabolism. Despite promising demonstrations in the past, computational inefficiency has been pointed out as a critical issue to overcome because it requires repeated application of linear programming (LP) to obtain flux balance analysis (FBA) solutions in every time step and spatial grid. To address this challenge, we propose a new simulation method where we train and validate artificial neural networks (ANNs) using randomly sampled FBA solutions and incorporate the resulting surrogate FBA model (represented as algebraic equations) into RTMs as source/sink terms. We demonstrate the efficiency of our method via a case study of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1. During aerobic growth on lactate, S. oneidensis produces metabolic byproducts (such as pyruvate and acetate), which are subsequently consumed as alternative carbon sources when the preferred nutrients are depleted. To effectively simulate these complex dynamics, we used a cybernetic approach that models metabolic switches as the outcome of dynamic competition among multiple growth options. In both zero-dimensional batch and one-dimensional column configurations, the ANN-based surrogate models achieved substantial reduction of computational time by several orders of magnitude compared to the original LP-based FBA models. Moreover, the ANN models produced robust solutions without any special measures to prevent numerical instability. These developments significantly promote our ability to utilize genome-scale networks in complex, multi-physics, and multi-dimensional ecosystem modeling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Performance Computing Based EMT Simulation: Power Grid with IBRs

Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation of power grids with high-fidelity models of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is time-consuming and difficult to scale. The necessity for high-fidelity models of IBRs that incorporate the dynamics of individual inverters within IBRs has been showcased in recent studies. These studies focused on events with partial power reduction in each IBR during a transmission line fault in the power grid. These types of events have been documented in multiple North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) reports in the past decade. It is imperative then to find solutions to speed-up EMT simulations and scale the size of the region with IBRs studied in EMT simulations. In this paper, a combination of numerical simulation algorithms with high-performance computing techniques are employed in discretization and linear solvers employed in the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform for power grid with IBRs. For ease of scalability, modular and object-oriented programming is used as these techniques are implemented. Additionally, automation software is developed to convert legacy software codes to the proposed RE-INTEGRATE EMT simulation platform. Thereafter, this platform is evaluated on multi-core central processing units (CPUs). Finally, scale-up tests are performed to showcase the scalability that is possible.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatial description of dislocation nucleation in the shock response of single-crystal aluminum

Nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations of shock loaded single-crystal Al in the $\langle$100$\rangle$, $\langle$110$\rangle$, $\langle$111$\rangle$, and $\langle$123$\rangle$ orientations are conducted to study elastic and plastic shockwave formation and details associated with dislocation activity. A computer vision-based approach is implemented to capture the presence of dislocations and describe their spatial characteristics in the zone of nucleation behind the propagating shockwave. The methodology developed relies on the sequences of images extracted during shock loading that show dislocation activity within a cross section of the sample. Results reveal that the spacing between activated slip systems is orientation dependent and exhibits a modest reduction for the $\langle$100$\rangle$ and $\langle$111$\rangle$ orientations as shock pressure increases. Comparisons are made to existing theoretical models. Such relationships between shock pressure and dislocation activity, extracted from molecular dynamics simulations, can be used to inform higher length scale simulations or modeling of dislocation-based plasticity during shock.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Dimension Reduction of Complex Three-dimensional CO2 Saturation using Deep Learning Models

In the domain of deep learning (DL), dimension reduction is crucial for enhancing training efficiency and mitigating overfitting, particularly when managing complex data such as three-dimensional (3D) saturation data. The 3D saturation data in the context of geological carbon storage (GCS) presents unique challenges due to its inherent sparsity and the abrupt transitions at plume boundaries, known as shock fronts. To address the challenges, we proposed a novel DL framework that integrates dimension reduction with advanced 3D reconstruction techniques. Our model leveraged latent variables derived from 2D average saturation data, offering a robust and efficient solution tailored to the intricate dynamics of 3D saturation fields. The proposed framework can extract the critical features of the high-dimensional data while reducing the variable numbers, which is more tractable for DL models and enhances the model robustness and accuracy. Therefore, it provides a novel approach for modeling and analyses in complex geological scenarios, which finds great potential applications in environmental monitoring and energy storage.

Wang, Hongsheng↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview

This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required

critical minerals and materials↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Fidelity Active Subspaces for Wind Farm Uncertainty Quantification

Wind plants operate in stochastic environments characterized by complex turbulent flow dynamics and high-dimensional random variables. A key step in uncertainty quantification studies is sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction that can facilitate the development of surrogate models to be used for forward and inverse propagation or optimization under uncertainty. Prior work has shown active subspaces are an effective tool for identifying important directions in the space of stochastic inputs; however, they have only been applied to single-fidelity wind plant models. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of a multi-fidelity active subspace method for analyzing the uncertainty in wind plant power output. The multi-fidelity active subspace estimator offers the promise of increased accuracy in identifying active subspaces as compared to a single-fidelity estimator for the same computational cost, or a reduction in cost for the same accuracy. This makes the study of uncertainty in larger wind plants and with higher fidelity physics tractable. The multi-fidelity active subspace method is applied to gridded and existing wind plant layouts with single and multiple inflow conditions and its performance for surrogate modeling and uncertainty propagation is compared against a single-fidelity active subspace method. This multi-fidelity approach yields substantial computational speedups of 2x - 3.4x across the test cases along with acceptable accuracy in surrogate modeling and computing statistical moments.

active subspace↗

DOE OSTI2024

A reactive electrochemomechanical theory for growth and remodeling of polyelectrolyte hydrogels and application to dynamic polymerization of $\text{DNA}$ hydrogels

Here this study develops a framework for growth and remodeling of active polyelectrolyte hydrogels that accounts for effects of compositional changes on the mechanical response. By developing a reactive electrochemomechanical theory, thermodynamical constraints upon reactive and remodeling processes are elucidated within a general framework that allows any number of chemical reactions to evolve the response of the gel and transfer mass and charge between constituents. Fully coupled, nonlinear constitutive relations are adopted for molar fluxes, allowing exploration of effects including cross-diffusion, electrophoresis, and electro-osmosis. A robust finite element implementation is developed in the open source FEBio software (febio.org) by exploiting an equivalence between electrochemomechanics and mixture theory. The implementation is verified against analytical solutions for free swelling, and a proper reduction to a prior chemomechanical theory is demonstrated for neutral gels swollen only by a solvent with no solutes. The theory and implementation are then applied to model the tunable large swelling achieved through dynamic polymerization of DNA crosslinkers seen in our recently developed experimental hydrogel system (Cangialosi et al., 2017). A novel constitutive model for reaction-driven evolution of the locking stretch λ L in a non-Gaussian mechanical free energy was developed, where the increasing concentration of DNA crosslinkers makes further swelling energetically favorable. With a single free parameter, excellent agreement was found between measured and predicted equilibrium swelling ratios. This study demonstrated the ability to extend the electrochemomechanical framework to include chemical reactions and composition-aware constitutive models, and showed that development of reactive models allows simulation of complex dynamic polymerization phenomena not treated before. The theoretical frame here can be further expanded in scope to incorporate additional non-ideal and nonlinear phenomena.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Online data-driven changepoint detection for high-dimensional dynamical systems

In this study, the detection of anomalies or transitions in complex dynamical systems is of critical importance to various applications. In this study, we propose the use of machine learning to detect changepoints for high-dimensional dynamical systems. Here, changepoints indicate instances in time when the underlying dynamical system has a fundamentally different characteristic—which may be due to a change in the model parameters or due to intermittent phenomena arising from the same model. We propose two complementary approaches to achieve this, with the first devised using arguments from probabilistic unsupervised learning and the latter devised using supervised deep learning. To accelerate the deployment of transition detection algorithms in high-dimensional dynamical systems, we introduce dimensionality reduction techniques. Our experiments demonstrate that transitions can be detected efficiently, in real-time, for the two-dimensional forced Kolmogorov flow and the Rössler dynamical system, which are characterized by anomalous regimes in phase space where dynamics are perturbed off the attractor at potentially uneven intervals. Finally, we also demonstrate how variations in the frequency of detected changepoints may be utilized to detect a significant modification to the underlying model parameters by utilizing the Lorenz-63 dynamical system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved Representation of Horizontal Variability and Turbulence in Mesoscale Simulations of an Extended Cold-Air Pool Event

Abstract Cold-air pools (CAPs), or stable atmospheric boundary layers that form within topographic basins, are associated with poor air quality, hazardous weather, and low wind energy output. Accurate prediction of CAP dynamics presents a challenge for mesoscale forecast models in part because CAPs occur in regions of complex terrain, where traditional turbulence parameterizations may not be appropriate. This study examines the effects of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and horizontal diffusion treatment on CAP prediction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Model runs with a one-dimensional (1D) PBL scheme and Smagorinsky-like horizontal diffusion are compared with runs that use a new three-dimensional (3D) PBL scheme to calculate turbulent fluxes. Simulations are completed in a nested configuration with 3-km/750-m horizontal grid spacing over a 10-day case study in the Columbia River basin, and results are compared with observations from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Using event-averaged error metrics, potential temperature and wind speed errors are shown to decrease both with increased horizontal grid resolution and with improved treatment of horizontal diffusion over steep terrain. The 3D PBL scheme further reduces errors relative to a standard 1D PBL approach. Error reduction is accentuated during CAP erosion, when turbulent mixing plays a more dominant role in the dynamics. Last, the 3D PBL scheme is shown to reduce near-surface overestimates of turbulence kinetic energy during the CAP event. The sensitivity of turbulence predictions to the master length-scale formulation in the 3D PBL parameterization is also explored. Significance Statement In this article, we demonstrate how a new framework for modeling atmospheric turbulence improves cold pool predictions, using a case study from January 2017 in the Columbia River basin (U.S. Pacific Northwest). Cold pools are regions of cold, stagnant air that form within valleys or basins, and improved forecasts could help to mitigate the risks they pose to air quality, transportation, and wind energy production. For the chosen case study, our tests show a reduction in temperature and wind speed errors by up to a factor of 2–3 relative to standard model options. These results strongly motivate continued development of the framework as well as its application to other complex weather events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Study on Computational Cost Reduction of Simulations of Phase-Change Material (PCM) Embedded Heat Exchangers

Thermal storage can be implemented using Phase-Change Materials (PCM), which absorb significant latent heat with a relatively small temperature change. PCM phase-change processes are transient and are driven by thermal diffusion and natural convection – the latter, especially for melting process. Modeling and simulation of PCM heat exchangers (HX’s) is typically computationally intensive due to the relatively complex time-dependent physics. Most of the PCM modeling work in the literature uses high-order modeling tools such as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Lattice-Boltzmann Method (LBM). For design purposes, the existing PCM modeling approaches are not practical, limiting researchers in their ability to investigate new ideas and different PCM’s with faster turnarounds. This paper presents a study investigating the reduction of computational cost of PCM embedded HX’s CFD models by evaluating the feasibility of spatial reduction without losing accuracy. The analysis consists of comparing full and partial domain under full melting conditions. The subject of this study is a single straight tube with circular transverse fins in the vertical orientation, using PCM’s with 35oC nominal melting temperature. Different tube and fin dimensions are investigated. Results indicate that the reduced domain reproduces - in half the run time - the same behavior as the full domain since the buoyancy effects are localized and patterned. The outputs from the partial domain simulation were used to build a non-general correlation for the PCM heat transfer characteristics and demonstrated how it can be implemented in a Finite Control Volume Reduced Order Model (ROM). The ROM can accurately reproduce the CFD simulations at 4 to 5 orders of magnitude faster.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic behavior of molecular Pd-acetate trimers and dimers in heterogeneous vinyl acetate synthesis

Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is a crucial intermediate in the production of various polymers. While molecular Pd-acetate trimers and dimers, such as Pd 3 (OAc) 6 and K 2 Pd 2 (OAc) 6 , are known to form on potassium acetate (KOAc)-promoted PdAu catalysts during heterogeneous VAM synthesis, their mechanistic role remains unclear. Here, we study the dynamics of different Pd-acetate species by utilizing in situ and operando crystallographic and spectroscopic characterizations combined with computational modeling on monometallic Pd model catalysts. The promoter-free catalyst expectedly shows low catalytic activity and VAM selectivity, corresponding to the complete reduction of Pdn(OAc) 2n species to form Pd 0 and PdC x nanoparticles. Conversely, noticeable quantities of K n Pd 2 (OAc) n+4 species remain on the KOAc-promoted catalyst, leading to smaller nanoparticle formation with 10 times the activity and double the selectivity for VAM. This study reveals that molecular Pd-acetate trimers and dimers are significant indicators of catalytic performance and highlights their structurally dynamic nature in heterogeneous vinyl acetate chemistry.

Jacobs, Hunter P. [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computational analysis of flame initiation, quenching, and re-ignition in a prechamber natural gas engine under varying EGR-dilution levels

The on-road natural-gas (NG) fueled transportation relies on stoichiometric spark-ignition engines for the advantages of simple after-treatment system despite the efficiency penalty relative to lean-burn combustion strategies. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) has the potential to reduce this efficiency gap at low to moderate loads without the need for complex lean-exhaust aftertreatment systems. However, EGR dilution leads to reduced combustion stability and increased cycle-to-cycle variability. A promising technology that has the potential to achieve reliable operation under diluted conditions is the prechamber ignition (or turbulent jet ignition) which uses chemically active turbulent jets generated from combustion inside a prechamber to initiate, stabilize and accelerate combustion of the mixture inside the main chamber. The present work focusses on developing a RANS-based CFD approach to accurately reproduce in-cylinder phenomena in a stoichiometric NG prechamber-assisted heavy-duty engine without relying on complex combustion models that account for turbulence-chemistry interactions. This is necessary because reactive prechamber jets at high EGR dilution tend to extinguish while emerging into the main chamber, which is followed by a phase of re-ignition — a phenomenon that conventional G-equation or well-stirred reactor combustion models cannot reproduce. With addition of a damping multiplier to the well-stirred reactor model, the predictions are seen to show good agreement with experimental pressure evolution and combustion images acquired from a single cylinder Cummins N-14 optical diesel engine retrofitted with a prechamber ignition system. Model predictions of local heat release in the flame and temperature evolution inside the flame are used to investigate combustion dynamics in the prechamber and the main chamber. It is seen that the well-stirred reactor model with the inclusion of damping is able to reproduce the temporary reduction in heat release within the flame, which can be considered equivalent to quenching of jets, and the subsequent re-ignition of the flame inside the main chamber. The delay between quenching and re-ignition depends on the amount of dilution, as explained by an illustration of flame evolution in a Borghi diagram.

Prechamber ignition↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measured and Simulated Carbon Dynamics in Midwestern U.S. Corn‐Soybean Rotations

Abstract Corn ( Zea mays L.) and soybean ( Glycine max [L.] Merr.) production dominate Midwestern U.S. agriculture and impact the regional carbon and nitrogen cycles. Sustaining soil carbon is important for corn‐soybean production (CS); however, quantifying soil carbon changes requires long‐term field measurements and/or model simulations. In this study, changes in soil organic (SOC), inorganic (SIC), and total (TC) carbon; pH; total nitrogen (TN); and net ecosystem production (NEP) were measured in a conventional corn‐soybean rotation in central Iowa. Soil samples ( n = 42; 0–120 cm depth) were collected from two adjacent fields in 2005 and 2016. Eddy‐flux stations set up in the fields continuously monitored NEP from 2005–2016, and net biome production (NBP) was calculated using yield records. The DayCENT model was used to simulate the effects of conventional management practices on soil carbon and calibrated with field‐measured NEP and SOC. Measured soil TC (0–120 cm) decreased by −14.19 ± 6.25 Mg ha −1 , with highest reductions in SOC and SIC ( p < 0.05) at 0–15 and 90–120 cm, respectively. Measured TN decreased by −0.7 ± 0.29 Mg ha −1 with N‐accumulation at 60–90 cm ( p < 0.05). Eddy‐flux NBP decreased by −13.19 ± 0.05 Mg ha −1 . Soil and eddy‐flux records show a carbon reduction by −1.14 ± 0.63 and −1.20 ± 0.06 Mg ha −1 yr −1 , respectively. The validated DayCENT model suggests that all SOC pools declined. We postulate that conventional CS production has adverse effects on C and N dynamics in Midwestern United States.

Dold, C.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical multi-time-scale predictive thermal management and fuel optimization for heavy-duty compression ignition engines

For heavy-duty diesel engines, NO X emissions reduction is strongly constrained by fuel efficiency. This paper presents a hierarchical model predictive controller (H-MPC) for coordinated control of tailpipe NO X emissions and fuel consumption. The H-MPC uses the separation of slow and fast dynamics that exist in the engine and its aftertreatment system. The controller is synthesized with an architecture in which a high-level MPC uses a longer prediction horizon compared to the low-level predictive controller which tracks the high-level controller command and manages the thermal dynamics of the aftertreatment system. Engine load preview enables the high-level controller to estimate the desired catalyst temperature ahead of time and addresses the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) slow thermal dynamics. Calculated by the high-level controller, the intake manifold pressure, and the start of injection (SOI) crank angle is used as reference trajectories in the low-level controller that regulates fast dynamical behaviors such as engine out NO X emissions. Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) validation of this integrated H-MPC on a rapid prototype controller shows that when the SCR catalyst temperature is above light-off temperature (warmed-up condition), the engine operation is shifted to operate with the best fuel economy since the warmed-up SCR can efficiently reduce the engine-out NO X emissions. Results indicate that up to 0.8% benefit in cycle averaged BSFC along with a 13% reduction in tailpipe NO X compared to a stock engine calibration can be achieved with the coordinated engine and aftertreatment system through H-MPC.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Non-intrusive data-driven model reduction for differential–algebraic equations derived from lifting transformations

In this paper we present a non-intrusive data-driven approach for model reduction of nonlinear systems. The approach considers the particular case of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) that form systems of partial differential–algebraic equations (PDAEs) when lifted to polynomial form. Such systems arise, for example, when the governing equations include Arrhenius reaction terms (e.g., in reacting flow models) and thermodynamic terms (e.g., the Helmholtz free energy terms in a phase-field solidification model). Using the known structured form of the lifted algebraic equations, the approach computes the reduced operators for the algebraic equations explicitly, using straightforward linear algebra operations on the basis matrices. The reduced operators for the differential equations are inferred from lifted snapshot data using operator inference, which solves a linear least squares regression problem. The approach is illustrated for the nonlinear model of solidification of a pure material. The lifting transformations reformulate the solidification PDEs as a system of PDAEs that have cubic structure. The operators of the lifted system for this solidification example have affine dependence on key process parameters, permitting us to learn a parametric reduced model with operator inference. Numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the resulting reduced models in capturing key aspects of the solidification dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Separate the Role of Southern and Northern Extra‐Tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

Abstract Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low‐frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low‐frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low‐frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

Geology↗