Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Dynamic Risk Assessment”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

LDRD23-0184: Resilience and Hazard Risk Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI)

Recent examples provide a significant concern for the resilience of the U.S. electric grid and represent a need for enhanced decision-making to address an increasingly wide range of complex system interactions and potential consequences. In response, this LDRD project produced a proof-of-concept evaluation called the Resilience and Hazard Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI) methodology as an agile and flexible analytic framework capable of addressing multiple, diverse threats to desired electric grid performance. After empirically grounding needs for the future of U.S. electric grid resilience, this project employed the systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) to develop a systems engineering risk model. The results of a completed feasibility study of a notional high voltage transmission system demonstrate an improved ability to incorporate both spatial (e.g., geographically distributed) and temporal (e.g., dynamic and time-dependent) elements of security risk to the gird. The success of this LDRD project provides the foundation for further evolution of the systems engineering risk model for the grid; derivation of quantitative approaches to evaluate risk and resilience performance; facilitation of agile experimenting and grid sensitivity to a range of vulnerabilities; and development of tools to assist decision-makers in enhancing U.S. electrical grid resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Host phylogeny matters: Examining sources of variation in infection risk by blood parasites across a tropical montane bird community in India

Abstract Background Identifying patterns and drivers of infection risk among host communities is crucial to elucidate disease dynamics and predict infectious disease risk in wildlife populations. Blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus are a diverse group of vector-borne protozoan parasites that affect bird populations globally. Despite their widespread distribution and exceptional diversity, factors underlying haemosporidian infection risk in wild bird communities remain poorly understood. While some studies have examined variation in avian haemosporidian risk, researchers have primarily focused on host ecological traits without considering host phylogenetic relationships. In this study, we employ a phylogenetically informed approach to examine the association between host ecological traits and haemosporidian infection risk in endemic bird communities in the Western Ghats Sky Islands. Methods We used parasite sequence data based on partial mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, that was amplified from genomic DNA extracted from 1177 birds (28 species) across the Western Ghats to assess infection of birds with haemosporidian parasites. We employed a Bayesian phylogenetic mixed effect modelling approach to test whether haemosporidian infection risk was affected by seven species-specific and four individual-level ecological predictors. We also examined the effect of host phylogenetic relationships on the observed patterns of variation in haemosporidian infection risk by estimating phylogenetic signal. Results Our study shows that host ecological traits and host phylogeny differentially influence infection risk by Plasmodium (generalist parasite) and Haemoproteus (specialist parasite). For Plasmodium , we found that sociality, sexual dimorphism and foraging strata were important ecological predictors. For Haemoproteus , patterns of infection risk among host species were associated with sociality, species elevation and individual body condition. Interestingly, variance in infection risk explained by host phylogeny was higher for Haemoproteus parasites compared to Plasmodium . Conclusions Our study highlights that while host ecological traits promoting parasite exposure and host susceptibility are important determinants of infection risk, host phylogeny also contributes substantially to predicting patterns of haemosporidian infection risk in multi-host communities. Importantly, infection risk is driven by joint contributions of host ecology and host phylogeny and studying these effects together could increase our ability to better understand the drivers of infection risk and predict future disease threats. Graphical abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗

North Dakota CarbonSAFE Baseline Microgravity Survey, Lessons Learned

Conference presentation at American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA and virtual, December 13–17, 2021. The team conducted a baseline microgravity survey near Minnkota Power Cooperative’s Milton R. Young power station, south of Center, North Dakota, as a part of the North Dakota CarbonSAFE (Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise) geophysical activities. The goal of this survey was to assess whether microgravity would be an appropriate technique to monitor CO 2 stored at this site.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Linking Threat Agents to Targeted Organizations: A Pipeline for Enhanced Cybersecurity Risk Metrics

In this study, we present a methodology leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to transform Cybersecurity Threat Intelligence (CTI) narratives into actionable insights for individual organizations. Our approach automates the extraction of machine-readable adversary SKRAM (Skills, Knowledge, Resources, Authorities, and Motivation) attributes from open-source reports, extending LLM utility beyond typical interactions. This innovation enables precise, automated assessments of cybersecurity risks posed by various adversaries. Using a chain-of-thought and multi-shot prompting strategy, our methodology advances the automation of cybersecurity feature extraction for new machine-learning models that predict the risk of adversary targeting. This approach is refined using a substantial dataset of over 150 analyst-validated threat reports and synthetic organizational data from 900 companies. Here, by bootstrapping the training data with a rule-based heuristic over synthetic data, we have developed a high-accuracy machine-learning model that allows entities to dynamically prioritize threats and defensive actions.

Cyber Threat Intelligence↗

Assessing the release, transport, and retention of radioactive aerosols from hypothetical breaches in spent fuel storage canisters

Interim dry storage of spent nuclear fuel involves storing the fuel in welded stainless-steel canisters. Under certain conditions, the canisters could be subjected to environments that may promote stress corrosion cracking leading to a risk of breach and release of aerosol-sized particulate from the interior of the canister to the external environment through the crack. Research is currently under way by several laboratories to better understand the formation and propagation of stress corrosion cracks, however little work has been done to quantitatively assess the potential aerosol release. The purpose of the present work is to introduce a reliable generic numerical model for prediction of aerosol transport, deposition, and plugging in leak paths similar to stress corrosion cracks, while accounting for potential plugging from particle deposition. The model is dynamic (changing leak path geometry due to plugging) and it relies on the numerical solution of the aerosol transport equation in one dimension using finite differences. The model’s capabilities were also incorporated into a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that was developed to enhance user accessibility. Model validation efforts presented in this paper compare the model’s predictions with recent experimental data from Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and results available in literature. We expect this model to improve the accuracy of consequence assessments and reduce the uncertainty of radiological consequence estimations in the remote event of a through-wall breach in dry cask storage systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Validation of numerical models for seismic fluid-structure-interaction analysis of nuclear, safety-related equipment

Seismic design, qualification, and risk assessment of nuclear safety-related vessels filled with liquid will have to consider the interaction between the vessel (tank), the contained liquid, and submerged components, if any. Seismic fluid-structure-interaction (FSI) analysis of nuclear vessels will rely on numerical models, which are required to be verified and validated. This study validates previously-verified numerical models using test data generated from earthquake-simulator experiments involving a cylindrical tank. Two solvers in LS-DYNA for FSI simulations are used for the numerical analysis: Arbitrary-Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) and Incompressible Computational Fluid Dynamics (ICFD). Numerical and test results are compared for responses critical to seismic design of advanced reactor vessels: hydrodynamic pressures on the tank wall, reactions at the support, and wave heights of the contained liquid. Analysis is performed for one-, two-, and three-directional seismic inputs with a range of intensity, and rocking motions. The accuracy of the numerical results and different methods for outputting wave heights are discussed. Recommendations for validation of seismic FSI numerical models of advanced reactors are provided. As a result, the validation exercise presented in this study is broadly applicable to cylindrical tanks, regardless of industry sector.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Multi-scale planning model for robust urban drought response

Increasingly severe droughts are straining municipal water resources and jeopardizing urban water security, but uncertainty in their duration, frequency, and intensity challenges drought planning and response. We develop the Drought Resilient Interscale Portfolio Planning model (DRIPP) to generate optimal planning responses to urban drought. DRIPP is a generalizable multi-scale framework for optimizing dynamic planning strategies of long-term infrastructure deployment and short-term drought response. It integrates climate and hydrological variability with high-fidelity representations of urban water distribution, available technology options, and demand reduction measures to yield robust and cost-effective water supply portfolios that are location-specific. We apply DRIPP in Santa Barbara, California to assess how least cost water supply portfolios vary under different drought scenarios and identify portfolios that are robust across drought scenarios. In Santa Barbara, we find that drought intensity, not duration or frequency, drives cost increases, reliability risk, and regret of overbuilding infrastructure. Under uncertain drought conditions, a diversified technology portfolio that includes both rapidly deployable, decentralized technologies alongside larger centralized technologies minimizes water supply cost while maintaining high robustness to climate uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗

Industry Level Integrated Fire Modeling Using Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D)

The software Fire Risk Investigation in 3D (FRI3D) has been developed over the last 2 years to integrate 3D spatial modeling with existing fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models and fire simulation codes. The goal of this research and development is to automate many of the fire analysis manual tasks to reduce industry efforts in the initial fire modeling and operational costs for the model maintenance and evaluations required during normal plant operations. The tasks for Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 include first testing the FRI3D modeling capabilities by importing an industry fire model into FRI3D and making a 3D model of a complex/high-risk significant area. (For this work, the switchgear room was chosen.) Then, the second task of FY 2021 is to develop a dynamic fire PRA process that can help optimize traditional fire PRA models. The switchgear room model will be used for the dynamic fire PRA work. This report describes the work and insights learned when using FRI3D software to model both a Nuclear Regulatory Report (NUREG) example models and a full industry switchgear room.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of erosion potential of bio-based multicomponent blendstocks using experimentally-validated computational fluid dynamics

The optimization of the fuel-engine interface and associated performance is a significant goal for CoOptima and the industry. The strategic driver for fuel-engine optimization is clear: diesel optimization can significantly reduce emissions including NOx, particulate matter, and CO2 emissions. Previous evaluations of ethanol and diesel blends raised significant concerns with fuel injector erosion using ethanol blends. While Sylvatex’s technology can use ethanol, it also utilizes a surfactant and water to compatibilize and modify ethanol blends, thereby controlling its impact in diesel engines. The results from the project will (1) provide important insights into complex fuels and erosion, which will be used to design additional, improved formulations; and (2) expand capabilities of Argonne’s cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment (CIERA) tool to model multi-component systems, furthering Co-Optima objectives.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and validation of the cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment tool

This work presents the development of a cavitation-induced erosion risk assessment (CIERA) tool that links multiphase flow simulation predictions with the progress towards material erosion. To develop a robust erosion modeling tool, the cavitation and erosion predictions for pressurized diesel fuel flow within a channel geometry were validated over a range of Reynolds and cavitation number conditions in two different aluminum channel geometries, one featuring a rounded inlet corner and the other with a sharp inlet corner. The multiphase flow development within the channel was modeled using a compressible mixture model, where phase change was represented with the homogeneous relaxation model and the turbulent flow evolution was modeled using a dynamic structure approach for Large Eddy Simulations. To improve representation of the incubation period before material rupture over existing approaches, a physics-based metric was derived based on the cumulative energy absorbed by the solid material from repeated hydrodynamic impacts. When the average peak pressure was related to the incubation period, the incubation period and its sensitivity to changes in flow conditions were found to be overpredicted. In contrast, predictions from CIERA provided a more accurate means to qualitatively and quantitatively predict the influence of flow conditions on the incubation period before material erosion. When the predicted stored energy was related to the solid material properties to estimate the incubation period, multiphase flow simulations demonstrated accurate representation of the sensitivity of erosion severity to changes in flow conditions. The use of CIERA led to quantitative agreement of the predicted incubation period within 5% of the experimentally measured incubation period.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 1, January-June 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 Chernobyl Accident Management Actions, A. R Sich 25 The IAEA-ASSET Approach to Avoiding Accidents is to Recognize the Precursors to Prevent Incidents, F. Reisch; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 36 A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion, D. F. Fletcher; 58 Analysis and Modeling of Flow-Blockage-Induced Steam Explosion Events in the High-Flux Isotope Reactor, R. P. Taleyarkhan, V. Georgevich, C. W. Nestor, U. Gat, B. L. Lepard, D. H. Cook, J. Freels, S. J. Chang, C. Luttrell, R. C. Gwaltney, and J. Kirkpatrick; 74 An Analysis of Disassembling the Radial Reflector of a Thermionic Space Nuclear Reactor Power System, M. S. El-Genk and D. V. Paramonov; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 86 Standards for High-Integrity Software, D. R. Wallace, D. R. Kuhn, L M. Ippolito, and L. Beltracchi; DESIGN FEATURES: 98 Adoption of New Design Features for the Next Generation Nuclear Power Reactors, L. S. Tong; 114 Review of Nuclear Piping Seismic Design Requirements, G. C. Slagis and S. E. Moore; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 128 PC-Based Probabilistic Safety Assessment Study for a Geological Waste Repository Placed in a Bedded Salt Formation, S. A. Khan; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 142 Managing Aging in Nuclear Power Plants: Insights from NRC’s Maintenance Team Inspection Reports, A. Fresco and M. Subudhi; 150 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 153 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 158 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 168 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31, 1993; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 177 Symposium on Radioactive and Mixed Waste—Risk as a Basis for Waste Classification; 177 1995 Incineration Conference 178 Ninth Power Plant Dynamics Control and Testing Symposium; 174 The Authors

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Local limits of detection for anthropogenic aerosol-cloud interactions

Ship tracks are quasi-linear cloud patterns produced from the interaction of ship emissions with low boundary layer clouds. They are visible throughout the diurnal cycle in satellite images from space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). However, complex atmospheric dynamics often make it difficult to identify and characterize the formation and evolution of tracks. Ship tracks have the potential to increase a cloud's albedo and reduce the impact of global warming. Thus, it is important to study these patterns to better understand the complex atmospheric interactions between aerosols and clouds to improve our climate models, and examine the efficacy of climate interventions, such as marine cloud brightening. Over the course of this 3-year project, we have developed novel data-driven techniques that advance our ability to assess the effects of ship emissions on marine environments and the risks of future marine cloud brightening efforts. The three main innovative technical contributions we will document here are a method to track aerosol injections using optical flow, a stochastic simulation model for track formations and an automated detection algorithm for efficient identification of ship tracks in large datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 1, January-June 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: 1 Chernobyl Accident Management Actions, A. R Sich; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 25 The IAEA-ASSET Approach to Avoiding Accidents is to Recognize the Precursors to Prevent Incidents, F. Reisch; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 36 A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion, D. F. Fletcher; 58 Analysis and Modeling of Flow-Blockage-Induced Steam Explosion Events in the High-Flux Isotope Reactor, R. P. Taleyarkhan, V. Georgevich, C. W. Nestor, U. Gat, B. L. Lepard, D. H. Cook, J. Freels, S. J. Chang, C. Luttrell, R. C. Gwaltney, and J. Kirkpatrick; 74 An Analysis of Disassembling the Radial Reflector of a Thermionic Space Nuclear Reactor Power System, M. S. El-Genk and D. V. Paramonov; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 86 Standards for High-Integrity Software, D. R. Wallace, D. R. Kuhn, L M. Ippolito, and L. Beltracchi; DESIGN FEATURES: 98 Adoption of New Design Features for the Next Generation Nuclear Power Reactors, L. S. Tong; 114 Review of Nuclear Piping Seismic Design Requirements, G. C. Slagis and S. E. Moore; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 128 PC-Based Probabilistic Safety Assessment Study for a Geological Waste Repository Placed in a Bedded Salt Formation, S. A. Khan; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 142 Managing Aging in Nuclear Power Plants: Insights from NRC’s Maintenance Team Inspection Reports, A. Fresco and M. Subudhi; 150 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 153 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 158 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 168 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31, 1993; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 177 Symposium on Radioactive and Mixed Waste—Risk as a Basis for Waste Classification; 177 1995 Incineration Conference 178 Ninth Power Plant Dynamics Control and Testing Symposium; 174 The Authors

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Updated Assessment of Water-Energy Issues for Nuclear Power

There is significant ongoing need for understanding the water-energy nexus issues in the U.S. commercial nuclear energy industry. The water-energy nexus is a dynamic, ever evolving conundrum involving technological changes, regulatory concerns, economic constraints, environmental issues, and political attributes. This report provides a brief update on the water-energy nexus challenges facing the U.S. commercial industry since the 2010 report titled “Cooling Water Issues and Opportunities at the U.S. Nuclear Power Plants”. Since the 2010 report, nuclear power has experienced significant curtailments due to drought, intake and discharge temperatures, and flooding. These events will be exacerbated by global climate and resource competition. Water and energy regulation changes have accelerated and pose a particular risk to the commercial nuclear fleet compliance. The definition of Water of the United States continues to be litigated as water rights are being evaluated for fair and equitable allocation. The ability to maintain compliance with state and federal water regulations offers a substantial risk to the commercial nuclear industry, and therefore understanding the energy-water nexus is necessary for maintaining success of the current fleet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance characterization of the Radionuclide Aerosol Sampler/Analyzer air sampler during a high-activity release event

The performance of the Radionuclide Aerosol Sampler/Analyzer (RASA) under high-activity conditions has been evaluated to maintain and protect the operations of International Monitoring System (IMS) radionuclide stations. Station measurements following the Fukushima Daichi accident of 11 March 2011 have been combined with laboratory measurements to understand how the quality of the measurements made using the RASA High-Purity Germanium (HPGe) gamma-spectrometer are impacted by increased sample activity and detector dead-time. Detector saturation has been identified to occur at a count rate of 175,000 counts s-1, at which level there are significant impacts to the sample live-time and detector resolution in addition to a system contamination risk. To safeguard against these effects, a dead-time limit of 16.6% is proposed that could be maintained by monitoring the activity collecting on the filter using a Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detector installed into the particulate collection area of the RASA. This limit would ensure that the IMS technical specifications for measurement time (> 20 h) and detector resolution (2.5 keV at 1332 keV) are met. The CZT would dynamically control the RASA air flow to limit the collection of particulate activity beneath the HPGe dead-time threshold and would also provide measurements useful for CTBT verification purposes and dose assessments.

Burnett, Jonathan L.↗