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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Transient Stability Control for Islanded Microgrids With Topology Reconfiguration

This paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning (RL)-based transient stability emergency control (TSEC) method for islanded microgrids. RL requires extensive interaction with the environment to learn control strategies, hence, a data-driven approach is used as a substitute for time-consuming time-domain simulation calculations. Deep sigma point processes (DSPP), which is a Gaussian process model, is utilized to predict the normal distribution of transient stability of microgrids and to construct a transient stability chance constraint. Reward-constrained policy optimization (RCPO) can simultaneously achieve objective prediction, policy learning, and constraint cost coefficient update across multiple timescales. RCPO interacts with the DSPP-based microgrid environment through a multi-process parallel manner, greatly increasing the training speed. Case studies on a real islanded microgrid demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and quickly obtain the optimal emergency control strategy while adhering to all hard constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Deep vadose zone remediation: technical and policy challenges, opportunities, and progress in achieving cleanup endpoints

Current requirements for site remediation and closure are standards-based and are often overly conservative, costly, and in some cases, technically impractical. Use of risk-informed alternate endpoints provides a means to achieve remediation goals that are permitted by regulations and are protective of human health and the environment. Alternate endpoints enable the establishment of a path for cleanup that may include intermediate remedial milestones and transition points and/or regulatory alternatives to standards-based remediation. A framework is presented that is centered around developing and refining conceptual models in conjunction with assessing risks and potential endpoints as part of a system-based assessment that integrates site data with scientific understanding of processes that control the distribution and transport of contaminants in the subsurface and pathways to receptors. This system-based assessment and subsequent implementation of the remediation strategy with appropriate monitoring are targeted at providing a holistic approach to addressing risks to human health and the environment. This holistic approach also enables effective predictive analysis of contaminant behavior to provide defensible criteria and data for making long-term decisions. Developing and implementing an alternate endpoint-based approach for remediation and waste site closure presents a number of challenges and opportunities. Categories of these challenges include scientific and technical, regulatory, institutional, and budget and resource allocation issues. Opportunities exist for developing and implementing systems-based approaches with respect to supportive characterization, monitoring, predictive modeling, and remediation approaches. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2019

Linking structural and transport properties in three-dimensional fracture networks

Here, we investigate large scale particle motion and solute breakthrough in sparse three-dimensional discrete fracture networks (DFN) characterized by power-law distributed fracture lengths. The three networks we consider have the same fracture intensity values but exhibit different percolation densities, geometric properties and topological structures. We considered two different average transport models to predict solute breakthrough, a streamtube model and a Bernoulli CTRW model, both of which provide insights into the flow fields within the networks. The streamtube model provides acceptable predictions at short distances in two of the networks, but fails in all cases to predict breakthrough times at the outlet plane, which indicates that particle motion in such fracture networks cannot be characterized by a constant velocity between the inlet and control plane at which the breakthrough curve is detected. Rather the structure of the network requires that frequent velocity transitions be made as particles move through the system. Despite the relatively broad distribution of fracture radii and relatively small number of independent velocity transitions, the CTRW approach conditioned on the initial velocity distribution provides reasonable predictions for the breakthrough curves at different distances from the inlet. The application of these averaged transport models provides a richer understanding of the link from the fracture network structure to ow and transport properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

C{sub 2}N{sub 2} Vertical Profile in Titan’s Stratosphere

In this paper, we present the first measurements of the vertical distribution of cyanogen (C{sub 2}N{sub 2}) in Titan’s lower atmosphere at different latitudes and seasons, using Cassini’s Composite Infrared Spectrometer far-infrared data. We also study the vertical distribution of three other minor species detected in our data: methylacetylene (C{sub 3}H{sub 4}), diacetylene (C{sub 4}H{sub 2}), and H{sub 2}O, in order to compare them to C{sub 2}N{sub 2}, but also to get an overview of their seasonal and meridional variations in Titan’s lower stratosphere from 85 km to 225 km. We measured an average volume mixing ratio of C{sub 2}N{sub 2} of 6.2±0.8×10{sup −11} at 125 km at the equator, but poles exhibit a strong enrichment in C{sub 2}N{sub 2} (up to a factor 100 compared to the equator), greater than what was measured for C{sub 3}H{sub 4} or C{sub 4}H{sub 2}. Measuring C{sub 2}N{sub 2} profiles provides constraints on the processes controlling its distribution, such as bombardment by Galactic Cosmic Rays which seem to have a smaller influence on C{sub 2}N{sub 2} than predicted by photochemical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of Dynamic Polarization Interactions in the Electrical Double Layer at Calcite (104) Interfaces with Aqueous Solutions

Reactions at mineral interfaces with aqueous solutions control many geochemical and biogeochemical processes in the Earth’s critical zone. At the molecular level, insights into important properties such as the structure of the electrical double layer (EDL) at specific mineral interfaces continue to improve due to the increasing fidelity of laboratory instrumentation and computational approaches. However, molecular simulation approaches suffer from limited reach into relevant scales of time, length, and system complexity. To span this gap, a novel hybrid approach that couples first principle plane-wave density functional theory (DFT) with classical DFT (cDFT) is demonstrated and applied to calcite (104) interfaces with various electrolytes. In this approach, a region of interest described using DFT interacts with the surrounding medium described using cDFT to arrive at a self-consistent ground state. Benchmarking against experimental observations and entirely first principle DFT simulations demonstrates that this hybrid model efficiently encompasses the key short-range and collective interactions in the EDL. Simulations of calcite (104)/solution interfaces reveal the key static and dynamic polarization interactions that give rise to structuring of ions and water. Ion hydration interactions have the strongest effect on the depth of the first minimum in the density distribution of counterions at the surface, and the position and width of the first density peak is largely determined by the strength of ion-correlation forces. Finer details of ion distributions are controlled by mutual polarization of the calcite surface and interfacial electrolyte. Finally, this new ability to efficiently and rigorously predict EDL structure at mineral surfaces in contact with complex solutions paves the way to accurately modeling sorption, nucleation, dissolution, and growth in realistic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2018

National soil organic carbon estimates can improve global estimates

Global inventories of spatial and vertical distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are being used in national and global initiatives targeted to mitigate climate change and land degradation impacts. Yet, national level high-resolution estimates of SOC stocks can be useful for improving the accuracy of global SOC inventories. We estimated spatially resolved SOC stocks of surface 0–30 cm and subsurface 30–100 cm layers at a spatial resolution of 30m in tropical Island, Sri Lanka using a legacy harmonized soil database of 122 soil profiles. The national estimates were compared with two global estimates derived from WISE30sec and SoilGrids250m. The tropical Island (land area=64,610 km2) occupying 0.03% of global land area showed a considerable heterogeneity in SOC stocks ranging from 2.0-342.5 Mg ha -1 and 2.7-391.7 Mg ha -1 in the surface and subsurface soil layers, respectively. We found, elevation, precipitation and slope angle as main environmental controllers of the spatial distribution of SOC stocks under tropical climate. Incorporating the pedogenic information (derived from soil series level legacy map, soil orders and suborders) with environmental controllers resulted in better regression models of predicting surface (R 2 =0.61) and subsurface (R 2 =0.81) SOC stocks. Geographically weighted regression kriging derived maps of SOC stocks revealed that 0–100 cm soil layer of the tropical Island stored 500 Tg C contributing for 0.04% of the global SOC stocks. The validation results of our estimates showed low Mean Estimation Error (MEE: surface -1.6 and subsurface -1.6 Mg ha -1 ) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE: surface 29.5 and subsurface 24.9 Mg ha -1 ) indicating a low bias and satisfactory predictions. The relative improvement of the prediction accuracy of the SOC stocks of our geospatial estimates in the 0–30 cm layer in comparison to SoilGrids250m and WISE30sec data derived SOC stocks were 51.7% and 35.2%, respectively. The SOC stocks predictions of the 30-100 cm soil layer showed even better relative improvement compared to SoilGrids250m (78.4%) and WISE30sec (57.4%) SOC estimates. Compared to estimates of total SOC stocks resulted in this study, WISE30sec data derived SOC stock maps showed 30% over estimation of the C stock in surface 0-30 cm (332 Tg C) and 41% overestimation in 30-100 cm layer (343 Tg C). The over estimation of total SOC stocks by the SoilGrids250 SOC stocks map for the surface 0-30 cm layer was 122% (567 Tg C) and for the 30-100 cm layer it was 209% (750 Tg C). We conclude that the fusion of legacy soil information of SOC stocks with appropriate environmental covariates and pedogenic information derived from legacy area-class soil maps at national level can produce more accurate inventories of spatial and vertical distribution of SOC stocks. As a result, these national inventories have a great potential of upgrading global inventories of SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

When and Where Lithium Plating Occurs, Its Correlation with Microstructure Heterogeneity, and the Mechanisms That Initiate and Self-Regulate Electrochemical Heterogeneity (A02-0444)

A microstructure scale electrochemical LIB model was used to investigate lithium plating onset, material non-uniform utilization, and in-plane heterogeneities for an NMC-graphite full cell. Model predicts active material particle surface roughness and size distribution (respectively, non-uniform curvature within and between particles) initiate in-plane heterogeneity, and that particle size heterogeneity at the separator interface controls the lithium plating preferential deposition ("Where"). These in-plane heterogeneities are then exacerbated by through-plane heterogeneities induced at fast charge as electrolyte depletion occurs and concentrates intercalation reaction near the anode-separator interface. Also, magnitude and occurrence of lithium plating is controlled by effective, or macroscale, microstructure parameters ("When"). As local states of charge start to diverge between nearby active material regions, overpotential differences induced by OCP difference kick in and contribute to reduce these SOC local heterogeneities. However, for staged materials such as graphite, with OCP profile alternating between plateaus and varying regions, this balancing mechanism is, respectively, inactive and active. This leads to a dynamic, non-monotonic, in-plane heterogeneity time evolution for state of charge and Faraday current density, for which their respective in-plane heterogeneity magnitude alternates. Such behavior has been modeled both for the whole electrode at the microstructure scale and at the particle scale. In-plane heterogeneities are usually considered to be detrimental, as they result in material non-uniform utilization (i.e., under and over stressed regions) and earlier degradations. However, this work provides a more granular approach as it discriminates between a harmful in-plane heterogeneity (non-uniform curvature) that triggers SOC in-plane heterogeneity, and a beneficial in-plane heterogeneity (Faraday current density) that contributes to reduce SOC in-plane heterogeneity. This work comprehensively explains the mechanisms that initiate, exacerbate, and regulate heterogeneity at the microstructure scale, while providing some design suggestions to reduce both in-plane and through-plane heterogeneities, as summarized in the graphical abstract.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling and control of fuel distribution in a dual-fuel internal combustion engine leveraging late intake valve closings

In internal combustion engines, cycle-to-cycle and cylinder-to-cylinder variations of the combustion process have been shown to negatively impact the fuel efficiency of the engine and lead to higher exhaust emissions. The combustion variations are generally tied to differences in the composition and condition of the trapped mass throughout each cycle and across individual cylinders. Thus, advanced engines featuring exhaust gas recirculation, flexible valve actuation systems, advanced fueling strategies, and turbocharging systems are prone to exhibit higher variations in the combustion process. In this study, the cylinder-to-cylinder variations of the combustion process in a dual-fuel internal combustion engine leveraging late intake valve closing are investigated and a model to predict and address one of the root causes for these variations across cylinders is developed. The study is conducted on an inline six-cylinder heavy-duty dual-fuel engine equipped with exhaust gas recirculation, a variable geometry turbocharger, and a fully flexible variable intake valve actuation system. The engine is operated with late intake valve closure timings in a dual-fuel combustion mode in which a high reactivity fuel is directly injected into the cylinders and a low reactivity fuel is port injected into the cylinders. The cylinder-to-cylinder variations observed in the study have been associated with the maldistribution of the port-injected fuel, which is exacerbated at late intake valve timings. The resulting difference in indicated mean effective pressure between the cylinders ranges from 9% at an intake valve closing of 570° after top dead center to 38% at an intake valve closing of 620° after top dead center and indicates an increasingly uneven fuel distribution. The study leverages both experimental and simulation studies to investigate the distribution of the port-injected fuel and its impact on cylinder-to-cylinder variation. The effects of intake valve closing as well as the impact of intake runner length on fuel distribution were quantitatively analyzed, and a model was developed that can be used to accurately predict the fuel distribution of the port-injected fuel at different operating conditions with an average estimation error of 1.5% in cylinder-specific fuel flow. A model-based control strategy is implemented to adjust the fueling at each port and shown to significantly reduce the cylinder-to-cylinder variations in fuel distribution.

Kassa, Mateos↗
DOE OSTI2012

Battery Wear from Disparate Duty-Cycles: Opportunities for Electric-Drive Vehicle Battery Health Management; Preprint

Electric-drive vehicles utilizing lithium-ion batteries experience wholly different degradation patterns than do conventional vehicles, depending on geographic ambient conditions and consumer driving and charging patterns. A semi-empirical life-predictive model for the lithium-ion graphite/nickel-cobalt-aluminum chemistry is presented that accounts for physically justified calendar and cyclingfade mechanisms. An analysis of battery life for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles considers 782 duty-cycles from travel survey data superimposed with climate data from multiple geographic locations around the United States. Based on predicted wear distributions, opportunities for extending battery life including modification of battery operating limits, thermal and charge control are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Predictive Scheduling for Electric Vehicles Considering Uncertainty of Load and User Behaviors

Un-coordinated Electric Vehicle (EV) charging can create unexpected load in local distribution grid, which may degrade the power quality and system reliability. The uncertainty of EV load, user behaviors and other baseload in distribution grid, is one of challenges that impedes optimal control for EV charging problem. Previous researches did not fully solve this problem due to lack of real-world EV charging data and proper stochastic model to describe these behaviors. In this paper, we propose a new predictive EV scheduling algorithm (PESA) inspired by Model Predictive Control (MPC), which includes a dynamic load estimation module and a predictive optimization module. The user-related EV load and base load are dynamically estimated based on the historical data. At each time interval, the predictive optimization program will be computed for optimal schedules given the estimated parameters. Only the first element from the algorithm outputs will be implemented according to MPC paradigm. Current-multiplexing function in each Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) is considered and accordingly a virtual load is modeled to handle the uncertainties of future EV energy demands. This system is validated by the real-world EV charging data collected on UCLA campus and the experimental results indicate that our proposed model not only reduces load variation up to 40% but also maintains a high level of robustness. Finally, IEC 61850 standard is utilized to standardize the data models involved, which brings significance to more reliable and large-scale implementation.

Wang, Bin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Control over emergence and alignment of transient blisters in thermo-responsive gels using hierarchically patterned substrates

Surfaces with tunable microscale textures are vital in a large variety of technological applications, including heat transfer, antifouling and adhesion. To facilitate such broad-scale use, there is a need to create surfaces that undergo reconfigurable changes in topology and thus, enable switchable functionality. To date, there is a relative dearth of methods for engineering surfaces that can be actuated to change topography over a range of length scales, and hence, form tunable hierarchically structured layers. Combining modeling and experiments, we design a geometrically patterned, thermo-responsive poly (N-isopropylacrylamide) gel film that undergoes controllable hierarchical changes in topology with changes in temperature. At the bottom, the film is covalently bound to a solid, curved substrate; at the top, the film encompasses longitudinal rectangular ridges that are oriented perpendicular to the underlying cylindrical curves. At temperatures below lower critical solution temperature (LCST), the swollen gel exhibits 3D variations in polymer density and thickness defined by the gel's top and bottom topography. As the temperature rises above LCST, the interplay between the upper ridges and lower curves in the gel drives non-uniform, directional solvent transport, the nucleation and propagation of a phase-separated higher-density skin layer, and the resulting pressure buildup within the film. These different, interacting kinetic processes lead to an instability, which produces transient microscopic blisters in the film. Through simulations, we show how tuning the width of the ridges modifies the propagation of a skin layer and creates localized pressure build-up points, which enables control over the emergence, distribution, and alignment of the microscopic blisters. Futhermore, we provide a simple argument to predict the size of such microscopic features. Experiments confirm our predictions and further highlight how our computational model enables the rational design of topographical transitions in these tunable films. The development of actuatable, hierarchically structured films provides new routes for achieving switchable functionality in actuators, drug release systems and adhesives.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

The physics of desiccation cracks 2: Modeling and prediction of the crack patterns

Here, this paper extends the experimental results of our companion paper by modeling and predicting the onset and pattern formation of desiccation cracks in geomaterials (Ruoyu et al., 2023). Thin-layer silt samples in controlled atmospheric conditions were tested to obtain the surface strain maps with the digital image correlation (DIC) method during dehydration. Support experiments, including consolidation and displacement-controlled triaxial tests, were conducted for the properties of geomaterials. These experimental results were used to validate a viscoplastic theoretical model by comparing cracks and singularities locations that distribute following the Cnoidal wave pattern. A critical value exists in the viscoplastic model that determines the number of singularities, which accurately predicts the number of cracks in the experiment. The critical values contain two crucial parameters: rate sensitivity and λ. Rate sensitivity describes the rate-dependent stress–strain relation, while λ shows the ability of pore pressure redistribution under the external mechanical loading rate. These results provide a new view to analyze the desiccation cracks considering the rate-dependent viscoplasticity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Playas Grid Reliability and Distributed Energy Research

The future looks bright for solar and renewable energies in the United States. Recent studies claim that by 2050, solar power could supply a third of all electricity demand in the country’s western states. Technology advances, soft policy changes, and increased energy consciousness will all have to happen to achieve this goal. The New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (NMT) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) perform various training and research activities at this site. Given its unique nature, Playas was chosen to test Micro-Grids and other examples of renewable distributed energy resources (DER). Several proposed distributed energy sources (DERs) were not implemented as planned including the Micro-Grid. However, Micro-Grid design and computer modeling were completed and these results are included in this report. As part of this research, four PV (solar) generating systems were installed with remote Internet based communication and control capabilities. These systems have been integrated into and can interact with the local grid So that (for example) excess power produced by the solar arrays can be exported to the utility grid. Energy efficient LED lighting was installed in several buildings to further reduce consumption of utility-supplied power. By combining reduced lighting costs; lowering HVAC loads; and installing smart PV generating equipment with energy storage (battery banks) these systems can greatly reduce electrical usage drawn from an older rural electrical cooperative (Co-Op) while providing clean dependable power. Several additional tasks under this project involved conducting research to develop methods of producing electricity from organic materials (i.e. biofuels, biomass. etc.), the most successful being the biodiesel reactor. Improvements with Proton Exchange Membranes (PEM) for fuels cells were demonstrated and advances in Dye Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSC) were also shown. The specific goals of the project include: 1) Instrumentation of the power distribution system with distributed energy resources, demand-side control and intelligent homes within the town of Playas, NM, 2) Creation of models (power flow and dynamic) of the Playas power distribution system, 3) Validation of the models through comparison of predicted behavior to data collected from instrumentation, and 4) Utilization of the models and test grid to characterize the impact of new devices and approaches (e.g., distributed generation and load management) on the local distribution system as well as the grid at large. In addition to the above stated objectives, the research also focused on three critical challenges facing renewable distributed energy platforms: 1) hydrogen from biomass, 2) improved catalyst support systems for electrolysis membranes and fuel cell systems, and 3) improved manufacturing methodologies of low cost photovoltaics. The following sections describe activities performed during this project. The various tasks were focused on establishing Playas as a “…theoretical and experimental test bed…” through which components of a modern/smart grid could be characterized. On a broader scale, project efforts were aimed at development of tools and gathering of experience/expertise that would accelerate progress toward implementation of a modern grid.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Voltage Regulation of Distribution Grid Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Model with Exogenous Inputs (NARX)

This article proposes data-driven control via a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) for real-time voltage regulation of a modified feeder using reactive power sources. Traditional voltage control strategies rely on rule-based heuristics or optimization techniques, which often require detailed system models and extensive computational resources. The NARX-based controller learns system dynamics from historical data and predicts optimal reactive power dispatch in real-time for voltage correction. The proposed approach is evaluated on a power system feeder model under varying load and network conditions. Simulation results demonstrate that the NARX-based controller achieves improved voltage regulation, offering higher adaptability to system fluctuations. This study highlights the potential of data-driven control for enhancing the reliability of power distribution networks.

Donge, Vrushabh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306062803)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗