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At least 181 records · Page 10

Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Code for the manuscript "Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulations vis Physics-informed Machine Learning"

We would like to disclose a code based on Python/Pytorch, in which we implement the data-driven physics-informed machine learning of Lagrangian large eddy simulation that is described in the manuscript "Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulations via Physics-Informed Machine Learning ". High-Reynolds number Homogeneous Isotropic Turbulence is fully described within the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations, which are notoriously difficult to solve numerically. Engineers, interested primarily in describing turbulence at a reduced range of resolved scales, have designed heuristics, known as Large Eddy Simulation (LES). LES is described in terms of the temporally evolving Eulerian velocity field defined over a spatial grid with the mean-spacing correspondent to the resolved scale. This classic Eulerian LES depends on assumptions about the effects of sub-grid scales on the resolved scales. Here, we take an alternative approach and design novel LES heuristics stated in terms of Lagrangian particles moving with the flow. Our \emph{Lagrangian LES}, thus L-LES, is described by equations generalizing the weakly compressible Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics formulation with extended parametric and functional freedom, which is then resolved via Machine Learning training on Lagrangian data from Direct Numerical Simulations of the NS equations. The L-LES model includes physics-informed parameterization and functional form, by combining physics-based parameters and physics-inspired Neural Networks to describe the evolution of turbulence within the resolved range of scales. The sub-grid scale contributions are modeled separately with physical constraints to account for the effects from un-resolved scales. We build the resulting model under the Differentiable Programming framework to facilitate efficient training. We experiment with loss functions of different types, including physics-informed ones accounting for statistics of Lagrangian particles. We show that our Lagrangian LES model is capable of reproducing Eulerian and unique Lagrangian turbulence structures and statistics over a range of turbulent Mach numbers.

Tian, Yifeng↗

Embedded training of neural-network subgrid-scale turbulence models

We report that the weights of a deep neural-network model are optimized in conjunction with the governing flow equations to provide a model for subgrid-scale stresses in a temporally developing plane turbulent jet at Reynolds number Re 0 = 6000 . The objective function for training is first based on the instantaneous filtered velocity fields from a corresponding direct numerical simulation, and the training is by a stochastic gradient descent method, which uses the adjoint Navier-Stokes equations to provide the end-to-end sensitivities of the model weights to the velocity fields. In-sample and out-of-sample testing on multiple dual-jet configurations show that its required mesh density in each coordinate direction for prediction of mean flow, Reynolds stresses, and spectra is half that needed by the dynamic Smagorinsky model for comparable accuracy. The same neural-network model trained directly to match filtered subgrid-scale stresses, without the constraint of being embedded within the flow equations during the training, fails to provide a qualitatively correct prediction. The coupled formulation is generalized to train based only on mean-flow and Reynolds stresses, which are more readily available in experiments. The mean-flow training provides a robust model, which is important, though a somewhat less accurate prediction for the same coarse meshes, as might be anticipated due to the reduced information available for training in this case. The anticipated advantage of the formulation is that the inclusion of resolved physics in the training increases its capacity to extrapolate. This is assessed for the case of passive scalar transport, for which it outperforms established models due to improved mixing predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Ponderomotive electron physics captured in a single-fluid extended magnetohydrodynamics model

The ponderomotive force, arising from the interaction between electromagnetic waves and plasma, plays a critical role in laser fusion, astrophysical plasmas, and laser diagnostics. Traditionally, modeling this force requires multi-fluid or particle-in-cell simulations due to its strong coupling to electron-scale dynamics. In this work, we demonstrate that a one-fluid, two-temperature extended magnetohydrodynamics (XMHD) model—augmented with a generalized Ohm's law (GOL) including electron inertia—can accurately reproduce key ponderomotive effects. We derive the ponderomotive force within this framework using a phasor-based approach and then validate its nonlinear manifestations through direct numerical simulations in the PERSEUS code, where steepening and density modulation phenomena typically associated with kinetic-scale models are reproduced. These results and prior work establish XMHD as a robust and efficient alternative for modeling nonlinear laser–plasma dynamics, bridging the gap between ideal MHD and fully kinetic approaches.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Shear-induced lift force on spheres in a viscous linear shear flow at finite volume fractions

Several studies have shown a significant increase in drag on a distribution of solid spherical particles within a fluid with increasing particle volume fraction. As a result, many empirical drag laws accounting for the dependence on the Reynolds number and volume fraction can be found in the literature. This study investigates the possibility of a similar effect of the particle volume fraction on the mean hydrodynamic lift force on randomly distributed spherical particles in a linear shear flow. Particle-resolved direct numerical simulations are performed to evaluate the mean lift force, and the results are compared with the case of an isolated particle in a linear shear flow for the same Reynolds number and shear rate. The mean lift force acting on the particles appears to remain nearly the same as that on an isolated particle. However, due to the influence of neighboring particles, there is a substantial force variation in transverse directions on each individual particle, whose magnitude is comparable to the mean drag force. The distribution of drag force in a linear shear flow is shown to be nearly the same as in a uniform flow at the same volume fraction and Reynolds number. A simple stochastic model based on a Gaussian distribution is presented for the lift force variation, and its performance is compared to the prediction of the deterministic pairwise interaction extended point-particle model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗

Transport Upscaling under Flow Heterogeneity and Matrix-Diffusion in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks

For this work, we investigate the combined effects of network scale flow variability and retention due to matrix-diffusion on the scaling behavior of transport through fractured media. Two of the principal mechanisms controlling the transport of solutes through fractured low-permeability media are broad distributions of flow velocities and retention times in the solid matrix. We study the relative impact of these two processes under different initial conditions using a set of three-dimensional discrete fracture network simulations. We use these simulations to develop and calibrate an upscaled continuous time random walk (CTRW) approach for advective transport based on an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for the particle velocities that accounts for the fracture-matrix coupling using a compound Poisson process. This CTRW model can be conditioned on the initial solute distribution and allows to observe late-time scaling behavior at distances beyond what is feasible to observe using high-fidelity direct numerical simulations. We determine that the initial distribution of particles leads to marked differences in the persistent long-term scale behavior in the solute travel time distributions, even those undergoing retention due to matrix diffusion through implementation and analysis of the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral solar irradiance on inclined surfaces: A fast Monte Carlo approach

Estimating spectral plane-of-array (POA) solar irradiance on inclined surfaces is an important step in the design and performance evaluation of both photovoltaic and concentrated solar plants. This work introduces a fast, line-by-line spectral, Monte Carlo (MC) radiative transfer model approach to simulate anisotropic distributions of shortwave radiation through the atmosphere as photon bundles impinge on inclined surfaces. This fast Monte Carlo approach reproduces the angular distribution of solar irradiance without the undesirable effects of spatial discretization and thus computes detailed POA irradiance values on surfaces at any orientation and also when surfaces are subjected to the anisotropic ground and atmospheric scattering. Polarization effects are also easily incorporated into this approach that can be considered as direct numerical simulation of the physics involved. Here, we compare our Monte Carlo radiative transfer model with the most widely used empirical transposition model, Perez4, under various conditions. The results show that the Perez4 model reproduces the more detailed Monte Carlo simulations with less than 10% deviation under clear skies for all relevant surface tilt and azimuth angles. When optically thin clouds are present, observed deviations are larger, especially when the receiving surface is strongly tilted. Deviations are also observed for large azimuth angle differences between the receiving surface and the solar position. When optically thick clouds are present, the two models agree within 15% deviation for nearly all surface orientation and tilt angles. The overall deviations are smaller when compared with cases for optically thin clouds. The Perez4 model performs very well (6.0% deviation) in comparison with the detailed MC simulations for all cases, thus validating its widespread use for practical solar applications. When detailed atmospheric profiles and cloud optical properties are available, the proposed fast Monte Carlo radiative model reproduces accurate spectral and angular POA irradiance levels for various atmospheric and cloud cover conditions, surface orientations, and different surface and ground properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Front propagation formulation for large eddy simulation of turbulent premixed flames

The front propagation formulation (FPF) for large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent premixed flames is presented and discussed. The FPF method adopts a regularized Dirac delta function to minimize the spurious propagation of under-resolved filtered flame fronts in LES, while reproducing the reaction characteristics of premixed flame fronts. Here, the extension of the FPF method to LES and the relation to existing sub-filter combustion models are discussed. An algebraic model for the regularized Dirac delta function is presented and validated using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data for statistically planar premixed flames propagating in homogeneous isotropic turbulence. A posteriori validation for a filtered 1-D planar laminar flame is performed to demonstrate the characteristics of FPF in reproducing the propagation speed and the thickness of the under-resolved flame front. LES of a turbulent Bunsen flame is also performed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reynolds-number scaling of wall-pressure–velocity correlations in wall-bounded turbulence

Wall-pressure fluctuations are a practically robust input for real-time control systems aimed at modifying wall-bounded turbulence. The scaling behaviour of the wall-pressure–velocity coupling requires investigation to properly design a controller with such input data so that it can actuate upon the desired turbulent structures. A comprehensive database from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent channel flow is used for this purpose, spanning a Reynolds-number range$Re_\tau \approx 550\unicode{x2013}5200$. Spectral analysis reveals that the streamwise velocity is most strongly coupled to the linear term of the wall pressure, at a Reynolds-number invariant distance-from-the-wall scaling of$\lambda _x/y \approx 14$(and$\lambda _x/y \approx 8$for the wall-normal velocity). When extending the analysis to both homogeneous directions in$x$and$y$, the peak coherence is centred at$\lambda _x/\lambda _z \approx 2$and$\lambda _x/\lambda _z \approx 1$for$p_w$and$u$, and$p_w$and$v$, respectively. A stronger coherence is retrieved when the quadratic term of the wall pressure is concerned, but there is only little evidence for a wall-attached-eddy type of scaling. An experimental dataset comprising simultaneous measurements of wall pressure and velocity complements the DNS-based findings at one value of$Re_\tau \approx 2$k, with ample evidence that the DNS-inferred correlations can be replicated with experimental pressure data subject to significant levels of (acoustic) facility noise. It is furthermore shown that velocity-state estimations can be achieved with good accuracy by including both the linear and quadratic terms of the wall pressure. An accuracy of up to 72 % in the binary state of the streamwise velocity fluctuations in the logarithmic region is achieved; this corresponds to a correlation coefficient of$\approx$0.6. This thus demonstrates that wall-pressure sensing for velocity-state estimation – e.g. for use in real-time control of wall-bounded turbulence – has merit in terms of its realization at a range of Reynolds numbers.

Mechanics↗

Aero-Optics of Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers

Aero-optics refers to optical distortions due to index-of-refraction gradients that are induced by aerodynamic density gradients. At hypersonic flow conditions, the bulk velocity is many times the speed of sound and density gradients may originate from shock waves, compressible turbulent structures, acoustic waves, thermal variations, etc. Due to the combination of these factors, aero-optic distortions are expected to differ from those common to sub-sonic and lower super-sonic speeds. This report summarizes the results from a 2019-2022 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project led by Sandia National Laboratories in collaboration with the University of Notre Dame, New Mexico State University, and the Georgia Institute of Technology. Efforts extended experimental and simulation methodologies for the study of turbulent hypersonic boundary layers. Notable experimental advancements include development of spectral de-aliasing techniques for highspeed wavefront measurements, a Spatially Selective Wavefront Sensor (SSWFS) technique, new experimental data at Mach 8 and 14, a Quadrature Fringe Imaging Interferometer (QFII) technique for time-resolved index-of-refraction measures, and application of QFII to shock-heated air. At the same time, model advancements include aero-optic analysis of several Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) datasets from Mach 0.5 to 14 and development of wall-modeled Large Eddy Simulation (LES) techniques for aero-optic predictions. At Mach 8 measured and predicted root mean square Optical Path Differences agree within confidence bounds but are higher than semi-empirical trends extrapolated from lower Mach conditions. Overall, results show that aero-optic effects in the hypersonic flow regime are not simple extensions from prior knowledge at lower speeds and instead reflect the added complexity of compressible hypersonic flow physics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multiscale simulation of spatially correlated microstructure via a latent space representation

When deformation gradients act on the scale of the microstructure of a part due to geometry and loading, spatial correlations and finite-size effects in simulation cells cannot be neglected. We propose a multiscale method that accounts for these effects using a variational autoencoder to encode the structure–property map of the stochastic volume elements making up the statistical description of the part. In this paradigm the autoencoder can be used to directly encode the microstructure or, alternatively, its latent space can be sampled to provide likely realizations. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method on three examples using the common additively manufactured material AlSi10Mg in: (a) a comparison with direct numerical simulation of the part microstructure, (b) a push forward of microstructural uncertainty to performance quantities of interest, and (c) a simulation of functional gradation of a part with stochastic microstructure.

Elastoplasticity↗

Calibrating a finite-strain phase-field model of fracture for bonded granular materials with uncertainty quantification

To study the mechanical behavior of mock high explosives, an experimental and simulation program was developed to calibrate, with quantified uncertainty, a material model of the bonded granular material Idoxuridine and nitroplasticized Estane-5703. This paper reports on the efficacy of such a framework as a generalizable methodology for calibrating material models against experimental data with uncertainty quantification. Additionally, this paper studies the effect of two manufacturing temperatures and three initial granular configurations on the unconfined compressive behavior of the resulting bonded granular materials. In each of these cases, the same calibration framework was used; in that, hundreds of high-fidelity direct numerical simulations using a new, graphics processing unit-enabled, high-performance finite element method software, Ratel, were run to calibrate a finite-strain phase-field fracture model against experimental data. It was found that manufacturing temperature influenced the elastic response of the mock high explosives, with higher temperatures yielding a stiffer response. By contrast, it was found that the initial configuration of the grains had a negligible impact on the overall behavior of the mock high explosives though it remains possible that local damage accumulation within the specimens could be altered by the initial configurations. Overall, the calibration framework was successful at creating well-calibrated models, showing its usefulness as an engineering and scientific tool.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical and experimental investigation of the flame kernel growth in a methane/air mixture near the lean flammability limit

Lean combustion has the potential to improve the thermal efficiency of spark-ignition engines, but it faces the significant challenge of increased cycle-to-cycle variation due to low mixture reactivity and unstable flame dynamics. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) employing predictive models can guide engine design and optimize operating strategies for lean combustion. However, ignition and combustion models have rarely been validated at fuel-lean conditions, and a fundamental understanding of the early flame kernel growth process is also lacking for a successful sub-model development. Here, the present study develops a numerical simulation framework used to investigate early flame kernel growth in methane/air mixtures. A nanosecond-pulsed discharge (NPD) approach is employed to effectively decouple the flame kernel growth from the electrical discharge due to their difference in timescales, and equivalence ratios near the experimentally measured lean flammability limit (LFL) are selected to focus on challenging mixture conditions. Three numerical investigations, such as the choice of turbulence modeling, grid size, and grid control strategies, are examined to match both LFL and flame kernel structure measured from experiments. It is demonstrated that a quasi-direct numerical simulation (QDNS) with a fixed grid embedding of 10 μm can predict the LFL as φ CFD =0.61 and match the displacement speed of the kernel’s boundary marked in schlieren images. To predict the LFL and flame kernel shape, a fine grid (Δ≤12.5 μm) is needed to capture the consumption of formaldehyde (CH 2 O) in kernel’s reaction branches attached to the anode, and adaptive mesh refinement is replaced with the fixed embedding due to loss of simulation accuracy. Also, it is found that a large-eddy simulation (LES) using the Dynamic Structure model is not suitable for the NPD-induced flame kernel simulation because artificial sub-grid turbulent kinetic energy induced by shock dynamics alters the flow velocity calculation, resulting in divergence of LES from QDNS. Lastly, the simulation well matches the experimental data for the flame kernel evolution in three mixture conditions (φ = 0.7, 0.61, 0.55), showing toroidal flame kernel expansion and flame kernel growth/extinction.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Physics-informed machine learning of the Lagrangian dynamics of velocity gradient tensor

Reduced models describing the Lagrangian dynamics of the velocity gradient tensor (VGT) in homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) are developed under the physics-informed machine learning (PIML) framework. We consider the VGT at both Kolmogorov scale and coarse-grained scale within the inertial range of HIT. Building reduced models requires resolving the pressure Hessian and subfilter contributions, which is accomplished by constructing them using the integrity bases and invariants of the VGT. The developed models can be expressed using the extended tensor basis neural network (TBNN) introduced by Ling et al. [J. Fluid Mech. 807, 155 (2016)]. Physical constraints, such as Galilean invariance, rotational invariance, and incompressibility condition, are thus embedded in the models explicitly. Our PIML models are trained on the Lagrangian data from a high-Reynolds number direct numerical simulation (DNS). To validate the results, we perform a comprehensive out-of-sample test. We observe that the PIML model provides an improved representation for the magnitude and orientation of the small-scale pressure Hessian contributions. Statistics of the flow, as indicated by the joint PDF of second and third invariants of the VGT, show good agreement with the “ground-truth” DNS data. A number of other important features describing the structure of HIT are reproduced by the model successfully. We have also identified challenges in modeling inertial range dynamics, which indicates that a richer modeling strategy is required. This helps us identify important directions for future research, in particular towards including inertial range geometry into the TBNN.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗