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DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

From Theory to Practice: Feasibility Study of a Thermal Microgrid at a DoD Installation: Preprint

Advanced district thermal energy systems, also known as thermal microgrids, can electrify and decarbonize urban districts in a highly efficient way, but adoption of such systems, especially in the US, has been slow. Thermal microgrids use a network circulating water at near-ambient (60-80 degree F) (15- 25 degree C) temperatures, and water-source heat pumps at connected buildings to boost or lower the temperature for space conditioning and domestic hot water. Addressing challenges related to retrofits of existing buildings for integration with such systems, as well as quantifying the benefits of different configurations, will be key to unlocking the full potential of thermal microgrids for energy savings, decarbonization, and resiliency. This paper will do that, by reporting on preliminary results from a feasibility study of a thermal microgrid, and illustrating the process of conceptual design to seek the best possible performance, within the many constraints of existing buildings. The feasibility study focuses on a cluster of existing buildings, including a grocery store, big box style retail store, motel, and clinic, at a US Department of Defense installation in Germany. The study will assess the performance of a pilot-scale thermal microgrid serving those buildings, in terms of energy, emissions, and life cycle cost, and assess practical considerations (such as building retrofits and scalability) for future implementation. A significant opportunity exists for waste heat recovery from refrigeration at the grocery store (more than offsetting the entire building s space heating load in terms of waste heat availability), and modeling of the proposed thermal microgrid will assess the benefits of the waste heat integration. The moderate operating temperatures of thermal microgrids facilitate the integration of waste heat from a variety of sources, and the networks allow waste heat to be shared amongst buildings in proximity. Along with results on expected energy and emissions performance, as well as waste heat integration, the paper will assess implications of load diversity on system performance. The paper will also discuss the process of evaluating existing building HVAC systems for compatibility with a thermal microgrid, including the feasibility of lower heating hot water temperatures compatible with currently-available water-to-water heat pumps. The cluster of buildings under consideration in this study has much in common with commercial buildings in the United States. The process of and results from this feasibility study can inform assessment of the potential for thermal microgrids in other locations and help unlock the benefits of such systems for decarbonization and energy savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO 2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing sources of value for electricity and negative emissions technologies in net-zero power systems

Deep decarbonization of the US power system would require rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources, which are projected to provide a substantial share of electricity generation at the time of net-zero emissions. However, the exact share of generation met by VRE and the roles of other technologies in supplying key electricity services—energy and firm capacity—remain uncertain. This study employs a detailed model of the US power sector to decompose the provision and value of electricity services, including negative emissions, by technology across a range of deep decarbonization scenarios. Results indicate that while technology deployment and the share of services provided by each technology vary significantly depending on future technological and market conditions, the value composition and future roles of individual technologies remain consistent. These findings offer guidance for research and development priorities and provide insights to inform electricity policy and planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Solar Land Availability on the Evolution of the U.S. Power System

Long-term planning scenarios of the United States electricity system have not identified solar resource availability to be a limiting factor in how much solar capacity might be deployed. However, there are some smaller regions where siting challenges indicate solar deployment could be limited by solar resource availability. In this work, we use geospatial modeling tools to develop a restrictive siting scenario that significantly reduces the amount and location of utility-scale solar resources. We use that restrictive siting regime, along with other previously defined siting scenarios, to examine how solar resource availability impacts the buildout of the electricity system using business-as-usual and decarbonization futures in a national-scale capacity expansion model. The restrictive siting scenario uses observed siting pressures to exclude many types of land on which development is allowed today and results in a greater than 90% reduction in solar resource potential-to approximately 3000 GW. Even with this drastic reduction, utility-scale solar capacity grows by more than 3 times through 2050 in the business-as-usual scenarios and by more than 6 times in the decarbonization scenarios, though less solar is deployed in scenarios with lower available solar resource. We quantify how system costs and generation mixes change as solar resource availability changes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Pathway Analysis Framework for Evaluating the Economic and Environmental Viability of Biomass-Based Plastic Production

Plastic production from fossil feedstocks (e.g., naphtha, coal, and natural gas) is not sustainable and causes known environmental impacts such as global warming. A possible solution is to shift production pathways to use biomass, which is a sustainable feedstock that can sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide. This study presents an optimization-based pathway analysis framework for evaluating the carbon footprints of the production of mainstream plastics from biomass and fossil feedstocks. We use the modeling framework to quickly navigate complex interdependencies that exist between the production pathways of different plastics and to determine pathways of minimum production cost under a range of carbon pricing scenarios. The framework interprets carbon prices as an exogenous taxation scheme or an endogenous negative value perceived by producers. The proposed approach reveals the biomass feedstock quantities needed to displace fossil counterparts and the plastics and technologies that should be prioritized. The framework can also be used for evaluating system-wide trade-offs between production costs and carbon footprints that arise from pathway interdependencies. We also evaluate hidden environmental impacts associated with the large-scale use of biomass as a feedstock, such as land use and water eutrophication that results from a significant increase in fertilizer use. Therefore, it is important to highlight that there are trade-offs between decarbonization and other environmental issues. Here, the proposed framework provides an integrative platform for basic techno-economic and life-cycle data that can be used for analyzing diverse scenarios and determining necessary technology targets (e.g., yields, footprints, and costs) to achieve required levels of decarbonization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate, air quality, and equity benefits from hydrogen substitution for fossil fuels used in process heat

Fossil fuel combustion for process heat in heavy industry accounts for ~15% of all United States CO 2 emissions and emits PM 2.5 and its precursors, emissions that have a disproportionate impact on minority populations. Decarbonizing process heat in the U.S. via hydrogen substitution presents an opportunity to reduce emissions of CO 2 and PM 2.5 and mitigate resulting exposure disparity. Here, we show that hydrogen substitution in steelmaking provides a large reduction in CO 2 emissions and air quality-related premature mortality, while hydrogen substitution in petroleum refining substantially benefits disadvantaged communities. When reductions in CO 2 emissions and premature mortality are monetized using standard regulatory values, we find that the sum of air pollution and climate benefits outweighs the difference in private cost associated with hydrogen substitution in steelmaking, regardless of the method of hydrogen production. The approach developed here can support evaluations of equity-focused decarbonization strategies in other industries and for specific sites.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Innovative Pathways to Net Zero Emissions: Subnational Strategies for Distributed Solar Deployment to Improve Grid Quality and Reduce Energy Costs in Argentina

Through Net Zero World, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the National Energy Secretariat of Argentina, La Pampa's Energy and Mining Secretariat, Pampetrol, and the Administracion Provincial de Energia de La Pampa (APELP) conducted an integrated analysis of the power system of the La Pampa province in Argentina. The study assessed the impact that solar and battery energy storage systems could have on the region grid's reliability and electricity costs, providing insights into long-term decarbonization strategies across Argentina. The analysis demonstrated that these systems are expected not only to help with decarbonization efforts but also to bolster grid resiliency, reduce line losses, and improve voltage regulation while lowering electricity costs. The paper offers a replicable framework for similar studies across other Argentine provinces, which could inform a national grid reliability plan and promote regional coordination. Such coordination will play a key role in supporting a nationwide clean energy transition as Argentina increases its share of renewable energy. By coordinating subnational energy plans with national strategies, Argentina can secure a resilient clean energy future, leveraging the substantial renewable resources available across its provinces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ocean-Powered Oyster Tumbling: A Review of Techniques and Opportunities for Emission Reductions

Oysters perform critical roles in shoreline ecosystems by improving water quality, providing habitat for species, and preventing erosion. These ecosystem functions are present even when oysters are farmed. Because of this, and the lack of need for nutrient inputs, oyster farming is often viewed as environmentally friendly. However, fossil fuels play a large part in oyster farming practices. Fossil fuels are used to power boats, tools, and farming equipment. Oyster tumbling machines, which are used to control biofouling and produce a desirable shape and size, use a significant amount of energy and are often powered by diesel generators. As the oyster farming industry grows and practices such as integrated multi-trophic aquaculture expand, decarbonization of the industry becomes more important. One solution may be “ocean-powered” tumbling, whereby oyster grow-out gear is designed to use a range of ocean movements to tumble oysters gradually as they grow. This solution eliminates the need for fossil fuel-powered tumblers and tends to be less labor intensive. A wide range of ocean-powered gear is used by farms across the United States. New approaches and designs are being explored, making ocean-powered oyster tumbling accessible in different environments. Water movements at oyster farms are primarily driven by tidal exchange, currents, wind waves, or a combination. This paper compares methods of ocean-powered tumbling, explores the transition from standard fossil fuel-powered tumbling techniques to ocean-powered tumbling, and estimates the emission reductions of decarbonizing oyster tumbling practices.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging NREL's ResStock & ComStock Dataset to Evaluate Building Stock Electrification: Preprint

Residential and commercial buildings accounted for 40% of U.S. energy consumption in 2022 and represent a significant opportunity for decarbonization through energy efficiency and electrification, and for grid planning. Building stock energy modeling is a powerful tool that can evaluate what-if scenarios as utilities, municipalities, policymakers, building owners and others work towards equitable building decarbonization and climate goals. This presentation will highlight several high-impact use cases of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)'s highly granular, bottom-up building stock energy modeling tools, ResStock and ComStock. These use cases cover a wide range of project scale, from neighborhood electrification analysis and municipality long-term energy planning, to state energy code development and national policy evaluation. This presentation will showcase specific real-world applications for which ResStock and ComStock have been utilized across the country, including California codes and standards cost-effectiveness analysis, New York City affordable housing electrification cost gap analysis, and California targeted electrification and gas decommissioning analysis. For each use case, this presentation will illustrate how ResStock and ComStock played a crucial role in accurately characterizing regional building stocks, providing discrete and aggregated end-use load shapes, and calculating lifecycle consumption, emissions, and costs for a variety of building electrification strategies and scenarios. Finally, this presentation will demonstrate how the data provided by ResStock and ComStock can help unlock significant outcomes for these use cases, including but not limited to, customer bill impact, incentive and program design, and energy equity analyses.

building stock modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propane Activation on Pt Electrodes at Room Temperature: Quantification of Adsorbate Identity and Coverage

Abstract C−H bond activation is the first step in manufacturing chemical products from readily available light alkane feedstock and typically proceeds via carbon‐intensive thermal processes. The ongoing emphasis on decarbonization via electrification motivates low‐temperature electrochemical alternatives that could lead to sustainable chemicals production. Platinum (Pt) electrocatalysts have shown activity towards reacting alkanes; however, little is known about propane electrocatalytic activation and conditions suitable for enabling selective oxidation to valuable products. Herein, we utilize a combination of electrochemical mass spectrometry (ECMS) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to elucidate the potential dependence of propane activation on Pt electrocatalysts. Results show a strong dependence of adsorption on the applied potential in room‐temperature aqueous acidic electrolyte, with a maximum coverage of propane‐derived adsorbates at 0.30 V vs RHE. Using charge deconvolution and deuterated experiments, the mechanism of adsorption was elucidated, and C 3 H 2 * was determined as the average dehydrogenated propane‐derived adsorbate species. DFT calculations further corroborate these results, showing that the formation of deeply dehydrogenated species is energetically accessible at room temperature. The combined theoretical and experimental findings yield insights for selective activation of paraffinic C−H bonds at room temperature, aqueous conditions—a critical step towards decarbonized chemical manufacturing.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Use of a Lignin-Based Admixture for Tailoring the Rheological Properties of Mortars for 3D Printing: Preprint

Efforts toward decarbonizing construction materials and industrial processes related to cement and concrete can be aided via multifaceted approaches that target alternative admixtures as well as precision control of fabrication. Chemical admixtures for water reduction have played a crucial role in the development of advanced concrete mixtures. Newer biomass processing techniques developed for aviation fuel production from corn stover biomass produce a more reactive lignin byproduct that is suitable for chemical modifications to mimic the properties of polycarboxylate ether admixtures with a smaller carbon footprint. The present study examines the use of lignin-based water-reducing admixture in cement pastes and mortar mixtures for 3D printing. The experimental program explores the use of different dosages of lignin-based admixture to produce 3D-printed samples with appropriate extrudability and buildability. The rheological characterization was performed to determine the flow curve of various mixtures. Finally, the heat of hydration of cement pastes was monitored via isothermal calorimetry to assess the impact of lignin-based admixtures on the hydration process of cement. The results of this study indicate that the use of biomass by-products, such as lignin-based admixtures have great potential to effectively control the fresh-state properties of cement-based materials.

bio-based admixtures↗
DOE OSTI2025

Economic and environmental performance of biomass gasification for renewable natural gas production in the context of the U.S. natural gas supply

Bioenergy technologies offer potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One such promising technology is biomass gasification, which is the conversion of biomass into renewable natural gas (RNG) for use with a natural gas combined-cycle power generation system. However, the associated economic and emission effects need to be better understood to enable optimal decision-making and avoid missed opportunities for enhancing efficiency and increasing system circularity. This analysis explores opportunities to (1) decarbonize natural-gas-based systems and (2) leverage the extensive US natural gas infrastructure to mobilize biomass resources to achieve environmental and economic benefits. Here, in this analysis, the research team used a spatially explicit biomass logistics model (integrated with relevant biomass availability, technoeconomic analysis, and life cycle assessment information) to simulate economically optimal biomass allocation for RNG production and use for decarbonization in the United States. Results show that the United States has the potential to produce 9203 million GJ of RNG within the expected range of $\$$12–30/GJ. Further analyses tested the overall RNG production system's sensitivity to economic and emissions parameters of nine different processes. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the median carbon abatement cost of RNG is most sensitive to changes in emissions associated with conversion processes and land use changes. These findings provide a deeper understanding of RNG's economic and emission potential for decision-making and guiding future research.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗