Results for “Data-driven model selection” — Page 10

DOE OSTI2024

Spin-Controllable Dynamics in Defect-Engineered Carbon Nanotubes as Single Photon Emitters: Data-Driven Modeling and Computations

Quantum technologies, such as quantum computing and sensing, require efficient single-photon emission (SPE) sources that operate at room temperature in telecom wavelengths. While several materials can serve as SPE sources, no single platform meets all the criteria for efficiency, ambient operation, and scalability. Single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) with covalently attached molecules offer a promising solution. Their SPE can be easily tuned via modifications of the SWCNT's diameter, chirality, and bonded molecules, enabling emission across near-IR to telecom wavelengths at ambient conditions. However, to fully realize the potential of SWCNTs and unlock their quantum capabilities, a deeper understanding of how structural defects from molecular adducts affect their emission and competing photoexcited processes is essential. To address this gap in our knowledge, this project combined quantum chemistry calculations with data-driven methods of cheminformatics (QSAR) and machine learning (ML). The developed computational approaches have provided several design strategies for covalent functionalization of SWCNTs to improve their optical response. The collaboration with Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) enabled direct comparison of computational and experimental data, facilitating method validation. This partnership was enhanced through access to LANL's Center for Integrated Nanotechnologies (CINT) utilizing User Facility Program and summer internships, which provided three NDSU graduate students with hands-on experience at LANL. The outcomes of this project included (1) Advancing the current stage of computational methods in accurate modeling of non-adiabatic spin-dependent photoexcited dynamics and its applicability to nanosystems consisting of thousands of atoms, realized as open-access codes linked to existing DFT-based software; (2) Establishing the relationship between the structure of adducts and SWCNTs and intrinsic excitonic and spin properties of defect states for guiding novel synthetic strategies and experimental probes of chemically functionalized SWCNTs as near-IR emitting materials; (3) Generating virtual libraries of hypothetical functionalized SWCNTs for virtual screening of their chemical structures and optical properties, leveraging new functionalities of SWCNTs; (4) Offering a unique experience for NDSU graduate students that prepared them for future scientific careers related to materials modeling and big data processing. These results were summarized in 12 published journal papers and 3 recently submitted papers. One of a key finding is that the position of defect sites on the SWCNT surface primarily drives the emission redshift (up to 100 meV), while the polarity of the defect-inducing molecules has a much smaller effect (~10 meV). However, the electron-donating or withdrawing properties of a molecule influence selecting reactivity of defect sites. These insights important for optimizing synthetic protocols for desired emissions in SWCNTs. We also revealed that the interaction between two defects at various positions on the SWCNT enhances the redshift and optical activity of states, favoring strong near-IR emission. This suggests that manipulations in defect concentrations is a promising strategy for controlling efficient emission. Mostly important, the defect position was found controllable by the spin states of photoexcited intermediates: Excited aromatic molecules form ortho defects with SWCNTs at their singlet states in the presence of oxygen, while oxygen-free conditions favor para defects via the triplet-state mechanism. Additionally, a heat-activated [2+2] cycloaddition reaction facilitates divalent defect formation with fewer bonding positions that narrows emission bands. These groundbreaking findings have been experimentally validated and significantly advance our understanding of defect chemistry in SWCNTs. Using a novel encoding technique and 3D-MoRSE descriptors, we developed highly accurate ML/QSAR models to predict both the 3D structure and optical properties of SWCNTs with chemical defects. This model enabled the creation of a virtual library of 125,556 structures, providing new insights into the relationship between SWCNT-defect structure and emission.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Optimization of the Processing Window for 316H Components Fabricated Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program is focused on accelerating the development and deployment of advanced materials and components fabricated via additive manufacturing with a specific focus on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). As an initial case study, the program has selected 316H stainless steel (SS) as an initial material around which to develop a code case development strategy. This strategy involves two parallel approaches: (1) an equivalency approach whereby round-robin testing across multiple collaborating laboratories demonstrates repeatability in processing and direct comparisons with conventional wrought 316H material and (2) a revolutionary approach to code qualification combining in situ data collection and high-fidelity modeling to capture, predict, and bound the performance of LPBF 316HSS components. As part of this campaign, this work package has initiated an extensive process optimization campaign across three laboratories, each printing variations of LPBF 316HSS using three different LPBF units (Concept Laser, EOS, and Renishaw). In FY23, ORNL has focused on unique experimental designs spanning wide ranges in energy inputs and turning knobs such as scan speed, laser power, hatch spacing, layer thickness, spot size, scan rotation, and more. On the Concept Laser M2, 72 different combinations of processing variables were investigated with duplicate samples and different powder compositions. In total, 252 samples were printed with combined in situ sensing data. A parallel design of experiments was conducted on the Renishaw AM400 with an additional 390 printed specimens for analysis. All 642 miniature specimens, each with unique features included in each print to capture geometry-related heterogeneity, were subjected to high-throughput x-ray computed tomography (XCT) analysis to enable the downselection of specific processing parameters of interest. Then, using electrical discharge machining (EDM), miniature tensile specimens were extracted for mechanical testing and microscopy investigations. From the analysis performed in FY23, it was found that powder composition drastically affects the resulting microstructure and mechanical performance of 316SS. Specifically, changing from 316L to 316HSS powder results in a wide range of grain sizes with varying degrees of preferred grain orientation, which increases as a function of energy density. It was also found that due to stored heat in thin fin–type features, large microstructural differences can be seen within one part printed with one set of processing parameters. These variations in microstructure features, including grain size, the nanoscale dislocation structure, and grain texture, will all affect the irradiation performance and high-temperature mechanical performance of LPBF 316HSS parts. Two sets of concept laser processing parameters, spanning both refined and columnar grain structures, were scaled to print larger 316H builds for campaign testing (high-temperature creep and irradiation). In addition, at least two optimized processing parameter sets were identified for the Renishaw AM400 for round-robin testing in FY24 with Argonne National Laboratory. Future work includes printing samples using identical parameters identified by partner institutions, providing material for corrosion and high-temperature mechanical testing, and continuing evaluations of heterogeneity in larger printed parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Optimization of the Processing Window for 316H Components Fabricated Using Laser Powder Bed Fusion

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program is focused on accelerating the development and deployment of advanced materials and components fabricated via additive manufacturing with a specific focus on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF). As an initial case study, the program has selected 316H stainless steel (SS) as an initial material around which to develop a code case development strategy. This strategy involves two parallel approaches: (1) an equivalency approach whereby round-robin testing across multiple collaborating laboratories demonstrates repeatability in processing and direct comparisons with conventional wrought 316H material and (2) a revolutionary approach to code qualification combining in situ data collection and high-fidelity modeling to capture, predict, and bound the performance of LPBF 316HSS components. As part of this campaign, this work package has initiated an extensive process optimization campaign across three laboratories, each printing variations of LPBF 316HSS using three different LPBF units (Concept Laser, EOS, and Renishaw). In FY23, ORNL has focused on unique experimental designs spanning wide ranges in energy inputs and turning knobs such as scan speed, laser power, hatch spacing, layer thickness, spot size, scan rotation, and more. On the Concept Laser M2, 72 different combinations of processing variables were investigated with duplicate samples and different powder compositions. In total, 252 samples were printed with combined in situ sensing data. A parallel design of experiments was conducted on the Renishaw AM400 with an additional 390 printed specimens for analysis. All 642 miniature specimens, each with unique features included in each print to capture geometry-related heterogeneity, were subjected to high-throughput x-ray computed tomography (XCT) analysis to enable the downselection of specific processing parameters of interest. Then, using electrical discharge machining (EDM), miniature tensile specimens were extracted for mechanical testing and microscopy investigations. From the analysis performed in FY23, it was found that powder composition drastically affects the resulting microstructure and mechanical performance of 316SS. Specifically, changing from 316L to 316HSS powder results in a wide range of grain sizes with varying degrees of preferred grain orientation, which increases as a function of energy density. It was also found that due to stored heat in thin fin–type features, large microstructural differences can be seen within one part printed with one set of processing parameters. These variations in microstructure features, including grain size, the nanoscale dislocation structure, and grain texture, will all affect the irradiation performance and high-temperature mechanical performance of LPBF 316HSS parts. Two sets of concept laser processing parameters, spanning both refined and columnar grain structures, were scaled to print larger 316H builds for campaign testing (high-temperature creep and irradiation). In addition, at least two optimized processing parameter sets were identified for the Renishaw AM400 for round-robin testing in FY24 with Argonne National Laboratory. Future work includes printing samples using identical parameters identified by partner institutions, providing material for corrosion and high-temperature mechanical testing, and continuing evaluations of heterogeneity in larger printed parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Classification of Nuclear Reactor Operations Using Spatial Importance and Multisensor Networks

Distributed multisensor networks record multiple data streams that can be used as inputs to machine learning models designed to classify operations relevant to proliferation at nuclear reactors. The goal of this work is to demonstrate methods to assess the importance of each node (a single multisensor) and region (a group of proximate multisensors) to machine learning model performance in a reactor monitoring scenario. This, in turn, provides insight into model behavior, a critical requirement of data-driven applications in nuclear security. Using data collected at the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory via a network of Merlyn multisensors, two different models were trained to classify the reactor’s operational state: a hidden Markov model (HMM), which is simpler and more transparent, and a feed-forward neural network, which is less inherently interpretable. Traditional wrapper methods for feature importance were extended to identify nodes and regions in the multisensor network with strong positive and negative impacts on the classification problem. These spatial-importance algorithms were evaluated on the two different classifiers. The classification accuracy was then improved relative to baseline models via feature selection from 0.583 to 0.839 and from 0.811 ± 0.005 to 0.884 ± 0.004 for the HMM and feed-forward neural network, respectively. While some differences in node and region importance were observed when using different classifiers and wrapper methods, the nodes near the facility’s cooling tower were consistently identified as important—a conclusion further supported by studies on feature importance in decision trees. Node and region importance methods are model-agnostic, inform feature selection for improved model performance, and can provide insight into opaque classification models in the nuclear security domain.

Tibbetts, Jake↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Deep Neural Network for Accurate and Robust Prediction of the Glass Transition Temperature of Polyhydroxyalkanoate Homo- and Copolymers

The purpose of this study was to develop a data-driven machine learning model to predict the performance properties of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs), a group of biosourced polyesters featuring excellent performance, to guide future design and synthesis experiments. A deep neural network (DNN) machine learning model was built for predicting the glass transition temperature, Tg, of PHA homo- and copolymers. Molecular fingerprints were used to capture the structural and atomic information of PHA monomers. The other input variables included the molecular weight, the polydispersity index, and the percentage of each monomer in the homo- and copolymers. The results indicate that the DNN model achieves high accuracy in estimation of the glass transition temperature of PHAs. In addition, the symmetry of the DNN model is ensured by incorporating symmetry data in the training process. The DNN model achieved better performance than the support vector machine (SVD), a nonlinear ML model and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), a sparse linear regression model. The relative importance of factors affecting the DNN model prediction were analyzed. Sensitivity of the DNN model, including strategies to deal with missing data, were also investigated. Compared with commonly used machine learning models incorporating quantitative structure–property (QSPR) relationships, it does not require an explicit descriptor selection step but shows a comparable performance. The machine learning model framework can be readily extended to predict other properties.

quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Meta-modeling strategy for data-driven forecasting

Accurately forecasting the weather is a key requirement for climate change mitigation. Data-driven methods offer the ability to make more accurate forecasts, but lack interpretability and can be expensive to train and deploy if models are not carefully developed. Here, we make use of two historical climate data sets and tools from machine learning, to accurately predict temperature fields. Furthermore, we are able to use low fidelity models that are cheap to train and evaluate, to selectively avoid expensive high fidelity function evaluations, as well as uncover seasonal variations in predictive power. This allows for an adaptive training strategy for computationally efficient geophysical emulation.

Skinner, Dominic J↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven State of Health Estimation for Second-Life Batteries Using Interpolated Synthetic Data and Feature Selection

Accurate estimation of the State of Health (SOH) for second-life batteries (SLBs) is crucial given their increasing use in energy storage applications. Precise SOH prediction is essential for safe operation and robust battery management systems. A major challenge is the limited availability of datasets for building reliable degradation models. To address this, synthetic data generation through linear interpolation is performed to extend the available data, making it more representative of real-world battery operating conditions. By analyzing feature correlation with SOH, the most relevant features are selected for the model. The proposed approach employs a convolutional neural network (CNN) model trained on this interpolated, feature-selected dataset, using time series data of voltage, temperature, and current over a cycle. By focusing on highly correlated features, the model achieves over 95% accuracy, with mean absolute error and root mean squared error up to 2.27% and 2.64%, respectively, in SOH estimation for two battery datasets tested. These results highlight the potential of combining synthetic data generation and feature selection to enhance SOH predictions, showcasing the superior performance of the proposed CNN model for both new batteries and SLBs.

feature selection↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration and performance of an online data selection algorithm for liquid argon time projection chambers using MicroBooNE

The MicroBooNE detector is a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) that produces three-dimensional images of particle interactions using ionization charge collected by anode wire plane arrays and scintillation light collected by a light detection system. In addition to testing long-standing experimental neutrino anomalies and performing measurements of neutrino interactions with argon nuclei using the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam, MicroBooNE aims to develop methodologies for rare beyond the Standard Model and off-beam physics searches. Looking ahead to the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), with MicroBooNE serving as a valuable testbed, achieving high sensitivity and livetime for off-beam physics while satisfying data processing and storage constraints will require data-driven, intelligent, and online or real-time data selection techniques. These techniques are essential for reducing data rates and preserving rare signals with high accuracy. In this paper, we describe a fast data selection algorithm suitable for online execution to identify electrons from stopping cosmic ray muons in the MicroBooNE detector utilizing ionization charge information, and present its performance. This represents the first demonstration of online data selection in a LArTPC using real data and charge information exclusively and provides an important proof-of-principle for applying such techniques to other LArTPC experiments such as the Short-Baseline Near Detector and DUNE.

Abratenko, P. [Tufts U. (main)]↗