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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VIPER – Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover: Mission Overview

VIPER is a low cost, lunar volatiles detection and measurement mission that will be delivered to the lunar south pole by one of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services partners and will characterize the nature of the volatiles in the area and extrapolate this data to create global lunar water resource maps. It will be the first mining expedition on another world while simultaneously addressing fundamental planetary science questions. Prospecting for lunar water at the poles is the next step in understanding the resource potential and addressing key theories about water emplacement and retention. It now appears that potentially economically significant amounts of water ice exists at the poles of the Moon, however, the distribution of this water is still not understood at a level sufficient to fully evaluate economic models. The water ice (and other potential volatiles), the “ore body”, needs to be understood at the scales of 10s to 100s of meters to evaluate localization, extraction and processing techniques. To accomplish this, VIPER will survey permanently-shadowed regions, semi-permanent shadowed regions, and even semi and full sunlit areas in order to have a comprehensive survey of polar region volatiles, to best inform future mission architectures. In order to characterize the volatiles, a payload suite consisting of a neutron spectrometer, mass spectrometer, near infrared spectrometer and a 1-meter drill will be hosted on the VIPER mobile lunar rover platform. Since VIPER is a relatively low cost, schedule-constrained, risk-tolerant mission, there are architectural limitations that require unique mission planning constraints to enable exploration of the lunar south pole region. These regions offer unique challenges such as uncertain terrain conditions, rock and crater hazards, lunar dust, multipath communications effects, extreme thermal environments and multiple overlapping planning constraints. Mission design/traverse planning, system design capabilities and mission operations are all highly linked through initial development phases. We will describe the current mission overview and the unique approaches taken by the VIPER project based on our programmatic framework and unique mission environment.

VIPER↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗
NASA NTRS2021

HaloSat Observations of Heliospheric Solar Wind Charge eXchange

X-ray emission from solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) produced in interplanetary space contaminates every astrophysical observation, regardless of the line-of-sight. Unfortunately, the primary SWCX emission lines also happen to be important diagnostics of astrophysical plasmas. Models of SWCX emission are limited by two main uncertainties: the local solar wind fluxes along the line-of-sight, and the charge exchange cross sections. The He cone, a localized density enhancement of helium neutrals, is the only heliospheric SWCX emission feature that is small enough and bright enough to be observationally isolated from the X-ray background and the broader SWCX emission. HaloSat, an X-ray CubeSat mission, has recently completed two series of specialized observations, near and far from the ecliptic plane, during two Earth transits of the He cone. These observations were used to test the predictions of a SWCX emission model against the emission observed at low ecliptic latitudes, where the solar wind data are monitored, and at high ecliptic latitudes, where the solar wind data are extrapolated. The measured SWCX emission for the set of observations near the ecliptic plane were consistent with the line intensities predicted by the model, but were underpredicted for the set of observations at high ecliptic latitude near the south ecliptic pole. Additionally, high temperature Galactic Halo emission components are reported for both spectral sets.

Solar Wind↗
NASA NTRS2021

Thermal Radiator for CO2 Deposition in Deep Space Transit (FY21 XHab Final Report - University of North Texas)

This UNT Senior design team was tasked by NASA to develop a variable conductance thermal radiator prototype for CO2 deposition for deep space transit. NASA selects university teams every year to partake in the X-HAB Academic Innovation Challenge, with this year’s number of teams being six. Air Revitalization is a crucial system for any space travel, be it for Low Earth Orbit, such as the International Space Station, or for deep space transit. Current systems, such as the Carbon Dioxide Removal Apparatus aboard the ISS, require upkeep and maintenance, which cannot be done on long distance space missions. For the past several years, NASA has done research on Cryogenic systems for Carbon Dioxide removal. These systems operate on the fact that Carbon Dioxide freezes at a higher temperature than Oxygen and Nitrogen, so Carbon Dioxide can be frozen out of the cabin atmosphere without the use of filters, which degrade over time. To cool the cabin air down to a temperature where Carbon Dioxide freezes, Stirling cryocoolers have been used, which have shown promise in the hope of Carbon Dioxide deposition for Cabin Air Revitalization. Cryogenic systems are much more reliable but require significant energy input to operate. Physical systems, such as radiators, have generally not been used for this task, as there is a need to be able to “turn off” the rejection of heat to allow the frozen carbon dioxide to be collected. However, with working fluids pumped through a physical radiator, that aspect of operation can be achieved. The goal of this challenge is to determine the effectiveness of a variable conductance thermal radiator that can reject heat to deep space, without the use of a dedicated cryocooler to remove energy from the cabin air. The proposed design uses piping, hot and cold working fluids, and non-condensable gas to absorbl heat from the cabin air on one side of the radiator and reject the heat to deep space by means of thermal radiation. As well, the system will allow for the recovery of deposited Carbon Dioxide. The UNT X-HAB 2021 team will create a model radiator and test its performance with simulated heat sources and sinks and extrapolate those data points to analyze for real world conditions.

Travis Seaver↗
NASA NTRS2023

Extensive Global Wetland Loss Over the Past Three Centuries

Wetlands have long been drained for human use, thereby strongly affecting greenhouse gas fluxes, flood control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity. Nevertheless, the global extent of natural wetland loss remains remarkably uncertain. Here, we reconstruct the spatial distribution and timing of wetland loss through conversion to seven human land uses between 1700 and 2020, by combining national and subnational records of drainage and conversion with land-use maps and simulated wetland extents. We estimate that 3.4 million km 2 (confidence interval 2.9–3.8) of inland wetlands have been lost since 1700, primarily for conversion to croplands. This net loss of 21% (confidence interval 16–23%) of global wetland area is lower than that suggested previously by extrapolations of data disproportionately from high-loss regions. Wetland loss has been concentrated in Europe, the United States and China, and rapidly expanded during the mid-twentieth century. Our reconstruction elucidates the timing and land-use drivers of global wetland losses, providing an improved historical baseline to guide assessment of wetland loss impact on Earth system processes, conservation planning to protect remaining wetlands and prioritization of sites for wetland restoration.

Etienne Fluet-Chouinard↗
DOE OSTI2022

Value Proposition of UV-Absorbers in PV Module Encapsulation

Various common crystalline silicon cell technologies were exposed to UVA radiation (1.24 Wm-2 nm-1 at 340 nm peak) on the front and back faces at 45 degrees Celsius for periods up to 3000 h, representing about 3 y of solar exposure in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. The resulting degradation of the open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current is presented. Of the various cell types examined, significant levels of degradation were seen in all cases. Less degradation was generally found after UV irradiation of cell fronts and older cell types, whereas a bifacial PERC type exposed on the rear showed about 25% degradation in short circuit current, attributable to lack of a diffused surface field. Selected cells were exposed to UV irradiation with the addition of long pass UV filters to replicate UV-absorbers in encapsulants. Modern cell designs are sensitive to UV-ID because of reduced or eliminated front and back surface field and increased dependence on high quality surface passivation. Single transformation of the independent variable (t, kW h/m^2) could be used to achieve a linear model of the data to extrapolate to 50 y. Solar Advisor Model (SAM) shows appropriate filtering of UV-irradiation can improve LCOE and net present value of plant. Some advanced cell types are seen to be UV-resistant (cell level solutions also exist). Solutions therefore exist on the cell, glass, and encapsulant level. Changes over time in each of these would also need to be considered (solarization, encapsulant browning...).

ENGINEERING,SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1962

Correlation of Resonance Charge Exchange Cross-Section Data in the Low-Energy Range

During the course of a literature survey concerning resonance charge exchange, an unusual degree of agreement was noted between an extrapolation of the data reported by Kushnir, Palyukh, and Sena and the data reported by Ziegler. The data of Kushnir et al. are for ion-atom relative energies from 10 to 1000 ev, while the data of Ziegler are for a relative energy of about 1 ev. Extrapolation of the data of Kushnir et al. was made in accordance with Holstein's theory, 3 which is a combination of time-dependent perturbation methods and classical orbit theory. The results of this theory may be discussed in terms of a critical impact parameter b(sub c).

Sheldon, John W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating Multiscale Materials Modeling with Machine Learning

The focus of this project is to accelerate and transform the workflow of multiscale materials modeling by developing an integrated toolchain seamlessly combining DFT, SNAP, LAMMPS, (shown in Figure 1-1) and a machine-learning (ML) model that will more efficiently extract information from a smaller set of first-principles calculations. Our ML model enables us to accelerate first-principles data generation by interpolating existing high fidelity data, and extend the simulation scale by extrapolating high fidelity data (10 2 atoms) to the mesoscale (10 4 atoms). It encodes the underlying physics of atomic interactions on the microscopic scale by adapting a variety of ML techniques such as deep neural networks (DNNs), and graph neural networks (GNNs). We developed a new surrogate model for density functional theory using deep neural networks. The developed ML surrogate is demonstrated in a workflow to generate accurate band energies, total energies, and density of the 298K and 933K Aluminum systems. Furthermore, the models can be used to predict the quantities of interest for systems with more number of atoms than the training data set. We have demonstrated that the ML model can be used to compute the quantities of interest for systems with 100,000 Al atoms. When compared with 2000 Al system the new surrogate model is as accurate as DFT, but three orders of magnitude faster. We also explored optimal experimental design techniques to choose the training data and novel Graph Neural Networks to train on smaller data sets. These are promising methods that need to be explored in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1994

Sonic boom predictions using a solution-adaptive full-potential code

The TranAir full-potential code, which utilizes a solution-adaptive, unstructured Cartesian grid, was used to compute near-field pressure signatures of three generic geometries: (1) a cone-cylinder; (2) a low aspect ratio rectangular wing; and (3) a delta-wing/body. Pressure signatures computed by TranAir are extrapolated to near- and midfield distances using a quasilinear extrapolation technique. Results are compared with wind-tunnel data and, where possible, with extrapolated wind-tunnel data and Whitham-method results. In general, extrapolated TranAir data is in good agreement with experimental and Whitham-method pressure signatures, but peak pressures are slightly underpredicted. It is felt that data computed too close to the model caused some of the discrepancies. The flowfield grid structure was also found to be an important issue in obtaining accurate off-body data. Results were encouraging enough to proceed with the application of TranAir to conceptual configurations in support of the NASA high speed research program (HSRP).

Madson, Michael D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a self-consistent model of the convective core boundary in upper main sequence stars: I. 2.5D and 3D simulations

There is strong observational evidence that the convective cores of intermediate-mass and massive main sequence stars are substantially larger than those predicted by standard stellar-evolution models. However, it is unclear what physical processes cause this phenomenon or how to predict the extent and stratification of stellar convective boundary layers. Convective penetration is a thermal-timescale process that is likely to be particularly relevant during the slow evolution on the main sequence. We use our low-Mach-number S EVEN -L EAGUE H YDRO code to study this process in 2.5D and 3D geometries. Starting with a chemically homogeneous model of a 15 M ⊙ zero-age main sequence star, we construct a series of simulations with the luminosity increased and opacity decreased by the same factor, ranging from 10 3 to 10 6 . After reaching thermal equilibrium, all of our models show a clear penetration layer; its thickness becomes statistically constant in time and it is shown to converge upon grid refinement. The penetration layer becomes nearly adiabatic with a steep transition to a radiative stratification in simulations at the lower end of our luminosity range. This structure corresponds to the adiabatic ‘step overshoot’ model often employed in stellar-evolution calculations. The simulations with the highest and lowest luminosity differ by less than a factor of two in the penetration distance. The high computational cost of 3D simulations makes our current 3D data set rather sparse. Depending on how we extrapolate the 3D data to the actual luminosity of the initial stellar model, we obtain penetration distances ranging from 0.09 to 0.44 pressure scale heights, which is broadly compatible with observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A multiscale recurrent neural network model for predicting energy production from geothermal reservoirs

Optimization of energy production from geothermal reservoirs requires reliable prediction of energy production performance under alternative operation and development scenarios. Traditionally, reservoir simulation models are used for the evaluation and screening of alternative production and development plans. However, simulation models require extensive data collection and modeling efforts and are time-consuming to build, run, and update. Data-driven predictive models, on the other hand, can serve as efficient prediction tools that can be used for decision support and management of daily operations and surveillance activities. Data-driven models become particularly attractive when a reservoir simulation model for a field does not exist and/or is difficult to build. Machine learning (ML)-based data-driven models that have recently become popular in several fields exploit statistical patterns and relations in training data to generate predictions. As such, they tend to perform better in interpolation problems (that is, prediction within the training data range) than when they are used to extrapolate beyond the training data. Production data from geothermal reservoirs tend to exhibit short-term variabilities as well as long-term trends, such as monotonically declining production temperatures. Capturing both short-term features and long-term trends with ML-based models is not trivial. We evaluate the use of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. RNN is a class of ML architectures that are used to represent and predict sequential/dynamic data. Thus, it can be challenging to apply RNN to problems where long-term trends must be captured and extrapolation beyond the training data range is needed. We introduce the multiscale RNN architecture to extend the application of RNN to detect and predict both short-term variabilities and long-term trends in geothermal data. The developed architecture consists of a long-term component to only capture low-frequency data patterns, and a short-term component to detect features with higher frequency and more nonlinearity. The final prediction is obtained by combining the long-term and short-term predictions. Both synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the presented multiscale RNN model. The prediction performance of the multiscale RNN is compared against those obtained from the regular RNN and the autoregressive (AR) model. The results suggest that the multiscale architecture improves the long-term prediction performance of the regular RNN and enhances its robustness against noise.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1984

Low temperature diffusion coefficients in the Fe-Ni and FeNiP systems: Application to meteorite cooling rates

The interdiffusion coefficient of FeNi in fcc taenite (gamma) of Fe-Ni and Fe-Ni-0.2 P alloys was measured as a function of temperature between 600 and 900 C. This temperature range is directly applicable to the nucleation and growth of the Widmanstatten pattern in iron meteorites and metal regions of stony and stony-iron meteorites. Diffusion couples were made from FeNi or FeNiP alloys which ensured that the couples were in the taenite phase at the diffusion temperature. The presence or absence of grain boundary diffusion was determined by measuring the Ni profile normal to the existing grain boundaries with the AEM. Ignoring any variation of interdiffusion coefficient with composition, the measured data was plotted versus the reciprocal of the diffusion temperature. The FeNi data generally follow the extrapolated Goldstein, et al. (1965) data from high temperatures. The FeNiP data indicates that small additions of P (0.2 wt%) cause a 3 to 10 fold increase in the FeNi interdifussion coefficient increasing with decreasing temperature. This increase is about the same as that predicted by Narayan and Goldstein (1983) at the Widmanstatten growth temperature.

Dean, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Buckling behavior of Rene 41 tubular panels for a hypersonic aircraft wing

The buckling characteristics of Rene 41 tubular panels for a hypersonic aircraft wing were investigated. The panels were repeatedly tested for buckling characteristics using a hypersonic wing test structure and a universal tension/compression testing machine. The nondestructive buckling tests were carried out under different combined load conditions and in different temperature environments. The force/stiffness technique was used to determine the buckling loads of the panels. In spite of some data scattering resulting from large extrapolations of the data-fitting curve (because of the termination of applied loads at relatively low percentages of the buckling loads), the overall test data correlate fairly well with theoretically predicted buckling interaction curves. Also, the structural efficiency of the tubular panels was found to be slightly higher than that of beaded panels.

Ko, W. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sound speed and Grüneisen parameter up to three terapascal in shock-compressed iron

This paper presents the first sound speed and Grüneisen parameter data for fluid iron compressed to 3 TPa (30 million atmospheres) and 20 g/cm 3 on the Hugoniot. Both the sound speed and Grüneisen parameter are derivatives of the equation of state (EOS), and thus tightly constrain the contours of the EOS surface. The sound speed data are systematically lower than expected from a simple extrapolation of previous data. The Grüneisen parameter shows a 30% drop at pressures and temperatures above the melt transition. Furthermore, while some models compare well with either the sound speed or Grüneisen parameter, none of today’s state-of-the-art models can explain both sets of data. Furthermore these new data will provide pivotal benchmarks for both future theoretical EOSs of warm dense iron and modeling planetary states and processes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1976

Static and wind tunnel near-field/far-field jet noise measurements from model scale single-flow baseline and suppressor nozzles. Volume 1: Noise source locations and extrapolation of static free-field jet noise data

A test was conducted in the Boeing Large Anechoic Chamber to determine static jet noise source locations of six baseline and suppressor nozzle models, and establish a technique for extrapolating near field data into the far field. The test covered nozzle pressure ratios from 1.44 to 2.25 and jet velocities from 412 to 594 m/s at a total temperature of 844 K.

Jaeck, C. L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantified uncertainties in fission yields from machine learning

As machine learning methods gain traction in the nuclear physics community, especially those methods that aim to propagate uncertainties to unmeasured quantities, it is important to understand how the uncertainty in the training data coming either from theory or experiment propagates to the uncertainty in the predicted values. Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Neural Networks are being more and more widely used, in particular to extrapolate beyond measured data. However, studies are typically not performed on the impact of the experimental errors on these extrapolated values. In this work, we focus on understanding how uncertainties propagate from input to prediction when using machine learning methods. We use a Mixture Density Network (MDN) to incorporate experimental error into the training of the network and construct uncertainties for the associated predicted quantities. Systematically, we study the effect of the size of the experimental error, both on the reproduced training data and extrapolated predictions for fission yields of actinides.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Extrapolating the Trends of Test Drop Data with Opening Shock Factor Calculations: the Case of the Orion Main and Drogue Parachutes Inflating to 1st Reefed Stage

We describe a new calculation of the opening shock factor C (sub k) characterizing the inflation performance of NASA's Orion spacecraft main and drogue parachutes opening under a reefing constraint (1st stage reefing), as currently tested in the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) program. This calculation is based on an application of the Momentum-Impulse Theorem at low mass ratio (R (sub m) is less than 10 (sup -1)) and on an earlier analysis of the opening performance of drogues decelerating point masses and inflating along horizontal trajectories. Herein we extend the reach of the Theorem to include the effects of payload drag and gravitational impulse during near-vertical motion - both important pre-requisites for CPAS parachute analysis. The result is a family of C (sub k) versus R (sub m) curves which can be used for extrapolating beyond the drop-tested envelope. The paper proves this claim in the case of the CPAS Mains and Drogues opening while trailing either a Parachute Compartment Drop Test Vehicle or a Parachute Test Vehicle (an Orion capsule boiler plate). It is seen that in all cases the values of the opening shock factor can be extrapolated over a range in mass ratio that is at least twice that of the test drop data.

Potvin, Jean↗