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It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.
Aerosol-biogeochemistry interactions will have important consequences for human health, ecosystem services, and climate feedbacks over the next several decades. In this proposal we seek to link how human activities on land, including direct industrial emissions and landscape fires, impact the atmosphere and the biogeochemistry of the ocean and land. Our overall goal was to complement existing work at DOE labs to improve the capability and performance of the E3SM model in short-term, high-resolution projections of climate. Projections of ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon are highly dependent on the details of the ocean physical and biogeochemistry parameterizations. Potentially equally important are the estimates of increases in iron and soluble nitrogen deposition in aerosols to the open ocean, but there are substantial uncertainties in these feedbacks. The E3SM land model simulates natural and anthropogenic fires, but improvement is needed to more accurately simulate fire responses to climate variability as well as fire contributions to terrestrial climate feedbacks. This proposal addressed four of the six priorities within the ACME/E3SM call by improving the representation of fire, industrial combustion sources, and desert dust and adding iron and soluble iron to the atmospheric chemistry (1). Our work focused on improving ocean biogeochemistry and the response of the oceans to anthropogenic atmospheric iron and nitrogen (3). We also improved the representation of land disturbance on fires and fire mediated carbon cycle feedbacks in the land model (4). Finally we had planned to couple the land, atmosphere and ocean biogeochemical systems (6) and explore how this coupling changes the feedbacks in the climate system. Our work under this proposal was separated into the following 5 tasks: i) improve representation of fire dynamics in both boreal and tropical ecosystems, ii) improve estimates of industrial emissions of iron and phosphorus, iii) improve representation of atmospheric iron, phosphorus and nitrogen transport, chemistry and deposition, iv) improve representation of iron, phosphorus and nitrogen deposition impacts on ocean biogeochemistry, and v) couple emissions into atmosphere, to deposition onto land and ocean biogeochemistry. For all 5 tasks, we conducted offline experiments of the historical period to enable comparison with available aerosol and land surface observations. We had planned to conduct fully coupled simulations, however, these will be conducted as part of the coupling in version 3 and 4 of the E3SM model, and thus have not been completed.
In situ analysis and visualization have grown increasingly popular for enabling direct access to data from high-performance computing (HPC) simulations. As a simulation progresses and interesting physical phenomena emerge, however, the data produced may become increasingly complex, and users may need to dynamically change the type and scale of in situ analysis tasks being carried out and consequently adapt the amount of resources allocated to such tasks. To date, none of the production in situ analysis frameworks offer such an elasticity feature, and for good reason: the assumption that the number of processes could vary during run time would force developers to rethink software and algorithms at every level of the in situ analysis stack. In this paper we present Colza, a data staging service with elastic in situ visualization capabilities. We demonstrate the use of Colza with the Deep Water Impact and the AMR-Wind simulations, coupling them with the ParaView Catalyst and Ascent in situ libraries, and show that Colza enables dynamic rescaling of these widely-used frameworks with no interruption to the simulation or staging service. Here, we highlight the challenges of enabling such elasticity, which requires overcoming these frameworks' reliance on MPI, using distinct engineering approaches, namely dependency injection and dependency overload. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to enable elastic in situ visualization capabilities for HPC applications on top of existing production analysis tools.
Integrated hydrologic models can simulate coupled surface and subsurface processes but are computationally expensive to run at high resolutions over large domains. Here we develop a novel deep learning model to emulate subsurface flows simulated by the integrated ParFlow–CLM model across the contiguous US. We compare convolutional neural networks like ResNet and UNet run autoregressively against our novel architecture called the Forced SpatioTemporal RNN (FSTR). The FSTR model incorporates separate encoding of initial conditions, static parameters, and meteorological forcings, which are fused in a recurrent loop to produce spatiotemporal predictions of groundwater. We evaluate the model architectures on their ability to reproduce 4D pressure heads, water table depths, and surface soil moisture over the contiguous US at 1 km resolution and daily time steps over the course of a full water year. The FSTR model shows superior performance to the baseline models, producing stable simulations that capture both seasonal and event–scale dynamics across a wide array of hydroclimatic regimes. The emulators provide over 1,000× speedup compared to the original physical model, which will enable new capabilities like uncertainty quantification and data assimilation for integrated hydrologic modeling that were not previously possible. Our results demonstrate the promise of using specialized deep learning architectures like FSTR for emulating complex process–based models without sacrificing fidelity.
Historically, B-grid formulations of sea ice dynamics have been dominant because they have matched the grid type used by ocean models. The reason for the grid match is simple – it facilitates penetration of the curl of ice-ocean stress into the deep ocean with minimal numerical diffusivity because sea ice and ocean velocity are co-located. In recent years, as ocean models have increasingly progressed to C-grids, sea ice models have followed suit on quadrilateral meshes, but the implementation of an unstructured C-grid sea ice models is new. We present an unstructured C-grid discretization of the Elastic Viscous Plastic (EVP) rheology, where the velocity unknowns are discretized at the edges of the mesh cells with n-sides, where typically n is greater than or equal to four, rather than at the vertices, as in the B-grid. Our framework of choice is the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) within E3SM, the climate model of the U.S. Department of Energy, although our approach is general and could be applied to other models as well. While MPAS-Seaice is currently defined on a B-grid, MPAS-Ocean runs on a C-grid, hence interpolation operators are heavily used when coupled simulations are performed. In this work, we describe a mathematical formulation to transition the dynamics of MPAS-Seaice to a C-grid, in order to ultimately facilitate the coupling with MPAS-Ocean and reduce numerical errors associated with this communication. Numerical results are reported to highlight the features of the method.
Abstract In ITER, pellets are calculated to require more than 8 times the mass than currently planned to reliably trigger edge-localized modes (ELMs). Unmitigated heat flux impulses from ELMs are intolerable in ITER at full power and current. Therefore, ITER operation relies on multiple approaches to control ELM heat fluxes. One method is pellet ELM pacing to instigate small rapid ELMs with low heat flux. Predicting the performance of pellet pacing is critical for ITER, which is expected to operate in a regime with a low-collisionality, peeling-limited pedestal. However, to trigger ELMs the local pressure increase in the expanding pellet cloud pushes the equilibrium over the ballooning stability limit. In this work, linear and nonlinear M3D-C1 simulations are used to predict pellet mass thresholds in DIII-D discharges and ITER scenarios with peeling-limited pedestals. It is found that the distance of the equilibrium’s operational point from the ballooning branch of the pedestal stability boundary strongly changes thresholds. Linear M3D-C1 simulations find a strong dependence of the pellet mass threshold on the poloidal injection location for ITER’s 15 MA, Q = 10 scenario. The required pellet mass at the planned injection locations is 8 to 17 times larger than currently considered. However, such linear simulations do not include pellet ablation physics or time evolution of density and temperature. A new scheme of 2D nonlinear simulations, coupled with linear stability analysis at various steps throughout the nonlinear time evolution, was developed to include such physics and improve on the linear results. These new nonlinear-to-linear simulations confirm previous findings. This result suggests that pellet ELM triggering in ITER could require pellets much larger than those currently planned, which makes ELM-pacing operationally challenging. On the other hand, fueling pellets injected from the high-field side will likely not unintentionally trigger ELMs in an otherwise ELM-stable plasma.
Fuel injector design has a substantial influence on the performance and emissions of direct injection engines. To date, large eddy simulations coupled with a single-fluidmixture modeling approach have shown great success in evaluating the complex interplay among injector design, fuel properties, and operating conditions on the injector performance. However, this simulation approach is too computationally expensive to be used by industry routinely for injector design due to the fine temporal and spatial resolution required to resolve wall-bounded flow within the injector. The work presented in this paper highlights a potential pathway to addressing this issue. To study the influence of injector design, fuel properties, and operating conditions on injector performance, large eddy simulations were performed to model the turbulent multiphase flow development through a side-oriented singlehole diesel injector. Using Latin hypercube sampling, the design space spanning a range of fuel properties, operating conditions, and needle lifts were explored. Two techniques for dimensionality reduction, namely proper orthogonal decomposition and autoencoders, were compared to evaluate their accuracy in representing the flow in a reduced dimensional space. Finally, based on the findings from this work, recommendations are provided in using machine learning approaches within the context of emulation to construct reduced-ordermodels for internal flow development relevant to automotive applications.
Rarefied flows about hypersonic vehicles entering the upper atmosphere or through nozzles expanding into a near vacuum may only be simulated accurately with a direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Under this grant, researchers enhanced the models employed in the DSMC method and performed simulations in support of existing NASA projects or missions. DSMC models were developed and validated for simulating rotational, vibrational, and chemical relaxation in high-temperature flows, including effects of quantized anharmonic oscillators and temperature-dependent relaxation rates. State-of-the-art advancements were made in simulating coupled vibration - dissociation - recombination for post-shock flows. Models were also developed to compute vehicle surface temperatures directly in the code rather than requiring isothermal estimates. These codes were instrumental in simulating aerobraking of NASA's Magellan spacecraft during orbital maneuvers to assess heat transfer and aerodynamic properties of the delicate satellite. NASA also depended upon simulations of entry of the Galileo probe into the atmosphere of Jupiter to provide drag and flow field information essential for accurate interpretation of an onboard experiment. Finally, the codes have been used extensively to simulate expanding nozzle flows in low-power thrusters in support of propulsion activities at NASA-Lewis. Detailed comparisons between continuum calculations and DSMC results helped to quantify the limitations of continuum CFD codes in rarefied applications.
Rarefied flows about hypersonic vehicles entering the upper atmosphere or through nozzles expanding into a near vacuum may only be simulated accurately with a direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Under this grant, researchers enhanced the models employed in the DSMC method and performed simulations in support of existing NASA projects or missions. DSMC models were developed and validated for simulating rotational, vibrational, and chemical relaxation in high-temperature flows, including effects of quantized anharmonic oscillators and temperature-dependent relaxation rates. State-of-the-art advancements were made in simulating coupled vibration-dissociation recombination for post-shock flows. Models were also developed to compute vehicle surface temperatures directly in the code rather than requiring isothermal estimates. These codes were instrumental in simulating aerobraking of NASA's Magellan spacecraft during orbital maneuvers to assess heat transfer and aerodynamic properties of the delicate satellite. NASA also depended upon simulations of entry of the Galileo probe into the atmosphere of Jupiter to provide drag and flow field information essential for accurate interpretation of an onboard experiment. Finally, the codes have been used extensively to simulate expanding nozzle flows in low-power thrusters in support of propulsion activities at NASA-Lewis. Detailed comparisons between continuum calculations and DSMC results helped to quantify the limitations of continuum CFD codes in rarefied applications.
The overarching goal of this research is to produce a skill-assessed tide-estuary representation, including BGC (biogeochemistry) components of the ecosystem, into the MPAS-O global climate modeling system. Specifically, in the original proposal we proposed one-way nesting, into global MPAS-O, of a high-resolution model for TES (tidal and estuary systems) including the coupling of the BGC components. We have completed the proposed tasks during the past 4 years. Specifically, after extensive consultation with the MPAS-O group during the first year, we have decided to go beyond the original proposal and to two-way nest SCHISM into MPAS-O. As a result, SCHISM-CoSiNE (with CoSiNE being the BGC model) is now fully integrated into MPAS-O as a subroutine (more precisely, an analysis member) and can be invoked as MPAS-O is running with two-way exchange of information between the TES and global models (with proper spatial interpolation done on the fly). As originally proposed, we have also developed the new finite-volume (FV) model MPAS-OI (aka ELCIRC-sub) for TES. We have conducted several tests using the coupled MPAS-SCHISM- CoSiNE model and also MPAS-OI for Columbia River, San Francisco Bay and Chesapeake Bay. Four journal publications have been produced so far as the result of the project and 1 is under review (cf. Publication section). With these achievements, we will be ready to conduct fully coupled simulations of TES and global ocean anywhere, as soon as some missing capabilities in MPAS-O (e.g. tides, improved ability to handle the boundary conditions, and streamlining of the global BGC model) are worked out. The significance of the outcome of this project cannot be overstated. It marks the first time, as far as we know, that a global climate model is tightly coupled to a bona fide nearshore and terrestrial model (SCHISM system); in fact SCHISM is the first bona fide compound flooding model that seamlessly covers the coastal ocean, estuaries, rivers and watersheds (Ye et al. 2020; Zhang et al. 2020). The coupled model will reduce the errors and uncertainties of the MPAS-O global climate model system. It also complements and extends on-going E3SM project, as the latter seeks in the long-term to include components required to simulate impacts of sea-level change and storm surge on coastal regions, including wave models and focusing resolution in coastal and storm-track regions, as an important component of the Cryosphere-ocean system. Note that a spectral wave model (the unstructured-grid version of Wave Watch III, aka Wind Wave Model) is already incorporated inside the SCHISM system and is therefore directly accessible in the coupled system.
The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.
Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities and runaway electrons (REs) interact in several ways, making it important to self-consistently model these interactions for accurate predictions of RE generation and the design of mitigation strategies, such as massive gas injection (MGI). Using M3D-C1 – an extended MHD code with a RE fluid model – we investigate the effects of 3-D nonlinear MHD activity, material injection, and 2-D axisymmetric vertical displacement events (VDEs) on RE evolution during disruptions on SPARC – a high-field, high-current tokamak designed to achieve a fusion gain Q > 1. Several cases, comprising different combinations of neon (Ne) and deuterium (D 2 ) injection, are considered. Here, our results demonstrate key effects that arise from the self-consistent RE + MHD coupling, such as an initial increase in RE generation due to MHD instability growth, decreased saturation energies of the m/n = 1/1 mode driving sawteeth-like activity, RE losses in stochastic magnetic fields, and subsequent RE confinement and plateau formation due to re-healing of flux surfaces. Large RE plateaus (>5 MA) are obtained with Ne-only injection (2-5 × 10 21 atoms), while combined D 2 + Ne injection (2 × 10 21 Ne atoms; 1.8 × 10 22 D 2 molecules) produces a lower RE current (<2 MA). With D 2 + Ne injection, a post thermal quench "cold" VDE terminates the RE beam, preventing a steady plateau. These simulations couple REs, 3-D MHD instabilities, MGI, and axisymmetric VDEs for the first time in SPARC disruption simulations and represent a crucial step in understanding RE generation and mitigation in high-current devices like SPARC.
Abstract. Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. Consequently, the role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system continues to be of great interest. Recent simulations suggest the possibility of significant changes in both large-scale aspects of the ocean and atmospheric circulations and in the regional responses to climate change, as well as improvements in representations of small-scale processes and extremes, when resolution is enhanced. The first phase of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP1) was successful at producing a baseline multi-model assessment of global simulations with model grid spacings of 25–50 km in the atmosphere and 10–25 km in the ocean, a significant increase when compared to models with standard resolutions on the order of 1° that are typically used as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments. In addition to over 250 peer-reviewed manuscripts using the published HighResMIP1 datasets, the results were widely cited in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and were the basis of a variety of derived datasets, including tracked cyclones (both tropical and extratropical), river discharge, storm surge, and impact studies. There were also suggestions from the few ocean eddy-rich coupled simulations that aspects of climate variability and change might be significantly influenced by improved process representation in such models. The compromises that HighResMIP1 made should now be revisited, given the recent major advances in modelling and computing resources. Aspects that will be reconsidered include experimental design and simulation length, complexity, and resolution. In addition, larger ensemble sizes and a wider range of future scenarios would enhance the applicability of HighResMIP. Therefore, we propose the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (HighResMIP2) to improve and extend the previous work, to address new science questions, and to further advance our understanding of the role of horizontal resolution (and hence process representation) in state-of-the-art climate simulations. With further increases in high-performance computing resources and modelling advances, along with the ability to take full advantage of these computational resources, an enhanced investigation of the drivers and consequences of variability and change in both large- and synoptic-scale weather and climate is now possible. With the arrival of global cloud-resolving models (currently run for relatively short timescales), there is also an opportunity to improve links between such models and more traditional CMIP models, with HighResMIP providing a bridge to link understanding between these domains. HighResMIP also aims to link to other CMIP projects and international efforts such as the World Climate Research Program lighthouse activities and various digital twin initiatives. It also has the potential to be used as training and validation data for the fast-evolving machine learning climate models.
The recent development of the Ehrenfest dynamics approach in the nuclear-electronic orbital (NEO) framework provides a promising way to simulate coupled nuclear-electronic dynamics. Our previous study showed that the NEO-Ehrenfest approach with a semi- classical traveling proton basis method yields accurate predictions of molecular vibrational frequencies. In this work, we provide a more thorough analysis of the semiclassical traveling proton basis method to elucidate its validity and convergence behavior. We also conduct NEO-Ehrenfest dynamics simulations to study an excited state intramolecular proton transfer process. These simulations reveal that nuclear quantum effects influence the predictions of proton transfer reaction rates and kinetic isotope effects due to the intrinsic delocalized nature of the quantum nuclear wave function. This work illustrates the importance of nuclear quantum effects in coupled nuclear-electronic dynamical processes and shows that the NEO-Ehrenfest approach can be a powerful tool to provide insights and predictions for these processes.
Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.
T2Well-ECO2NV2 combines the T2Well code for simulating coupled well-reservoir fluid and heat flow with the ECO2N Version 2.0 equation of state module for calculating the fluid properties of water-CO2-salt mixtures at high temperatures. The combination of these two capabilities in T2Well-ECO2NV2 creates the capability of simulating injection and withdrawal of fluids in high-Temperature geothermal or geologic carbon sequestration systems. While the previously released T2Well-ECO2N Version 1.0 was useful for geologic carbon sequestration, the new T2Well-ECO2NV2 has capabilities for higher temperature and thereby allows the simulation of CO2-rich geothermal systems.
Multiphysics coupling presents a significant challenge in terms of both computational accuracy and performance. Achieving high performance on coupled simulations can be particularly challenging in a high-performance computing context. The US Department of Energy Exascale Computing Project has the mission to prepare mission-relevant applications for the delivery of the exascale computers starting in 2023. Many of these applications require multiphysics coupling, and the implementations must be performant on exascale hardware. In this special issue we feature six articles performing advanced multiphysics coupling that span the computational science domains in the Exascale Computing Project.
Rain formation is a critical factor governing the lifecycle and radiative forcing of clouds and therefore it is a key element of weather and climate. Cloud microphysics–turbulence interactions occur across a wide range of scales and are challenging to represent in atmospheric models with limited resolution. Based on past experiments and idealized numerical simulations, it has been postulated that cloud turbulence accelerates rain formation by enhancing drop collision–coalescence. We provide substantial evidence for significant impacts of turbulence on the evolution of cloud droplet size distributions and rain formation by comparing high-resolution observations of cumulus congestus clouds with state-of-the-art large-eddy simulations coupled with a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics scheme. Turbulent coalescence must be included in the model to accurately represent the observed drop size distributions, especially for drizzle drop sizes at lower heights in the cloud. Turbulence causes earlier rain formation and greater rain accumulation compared to simulations with gravitational coalescence only. The observed rain size distribution tail just above cloud base follows a power law scaling that deviates from theoretical scalings considering either a purely gravitation collision kernel or a turbulent kernel neglecting droplet inertial effects, providing additional evidence for turbulent coalescence in clouds. In contrast, large aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei (“giant CCN”) do not significantly impact rain formation owing to their long timescale to reach equilibrium wet size relative to the lifetime of rising cumulus thermals. Overall, turbulent drop coalescence exerts a dominant influence on rain initiation in warm cumulus clouds, with limited impacts of giant CCN.