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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Axial and appendicular bone density predict fractures in older women

To determine whether measurement of hip and spine bone mass by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) predicts fractures in women and to compare the predictive value of DEXA with that of single-photon absorptiometry (SPA) of appendicular sites, we prospectively studied 8134 nonblack women age 65 years and older who had both DEXA and SPA measurements of bone mass. A total of 208 nonspine fractures, including 37 wrist fractures, occurred during the follow-up period, which averaged 0.7 years. The risk of fracture was inversely related to bone density at all measurement sites. After adjusting for age, the relative risks per decrease of 1 standard deviation in bone density for the occurrence of any fracture was 1.40 for measurement at the proximal femur (95% confidence interval 1.20-1.63) and 1.35 (1.15-1.58) for measurement at the spine. Results were similar for all regions of the proximal femur as well as SPA measurements at the calcaneus, distal radius, and proximal radius. None of these measurements was a significantly better predictor of fractures than the others. Furthermore, measurement of the distal radius was not a better predictor of wrist fracture (relative risk 1.64: 95% CI 1.13-2.37) than other sites, such as the lumbar spine (RR 1.56; CI 1.07-2.26), the femoral neck (RR 1.65; CI 1.12-2.41), or the calcaneus (RR 1.83; CI 1.26-2.64). We conclude that the inverse relationship between bone mass and risk of fracture in older women is similar for absorptiometric measurements made at the hip, spine, and appendicular sites.

Multicenter Study↗
NASA NTRS2005

Comparison of Elevated Temperature Tensile Properties and Fatigue Behavior of Two Variants of a Woven SiC/SiC Composite

Tensile properties (elastic modulus, proportional limit strength, in-plane tensile strength, and strain at failure) of two variants of a woven SiC/SiC composite, manufactured during two separate time periods (9/99 and 1/01), were determined at 1038 and 1204 C by conducting tensile tests on specimens machined from plates. Continuous cycling fatigue tests (R = 0.05) and 20 cpm) were also conducted at the same two temperatures on specimens from both composites. In this study, average tensile properties, 95% confidence intervals associated with the tensile properties, and geometric mean fatigue lives of both composite materials are compared. The observed similarities and differences in the tensile properties are highlighted and an attempt is made to understand the relationship, if any, between the tensile properties and the fatigue behaviors of the two woven composites.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗
NASA NTRS2005

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA attempts to determine the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks (and their corresponding uncertainties, if known) to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the mircro-meteoroid & orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. With so many uncertainties believed to be present in the models used within BUMPER II, providing uncertainty bounds with BUMPER II results would appear to be essential to properly evaluating its predictions of MMOD risk. The uncertainties in BUMPER II come primarily from three areas: damage prediction/ballistic limit equations, environment models, and failure criteria definitions. In order to quantify the overall uncertainty bounds on MMOD risk predictions, the uncertainties in these three areas must be identified. In this paper, possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the shuttle and station versions of BUMPER II are presented and discussed. We begin the paper with a review of the current approaches used by NASA to perform a PRA for the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, followed by a review of the results of a recent sensitivity analysis performed by NASA using the shuttle version of the BUMPER II code. Following a discussion of the various equations that are encoded in BUMPER II, we propose several possible approaches for establishing uncertainty bounds for the equations within BUMPER II. We conclude with an evaluation of these approaches and present a recommendation regarding which of them would be the most appropriate to follow.

Schonberg, W. P.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Uncertainty Considerations for Ballistic Limit Equations

The overall risk for any spacecraft system is typically determined using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). A PRA determines the overall risk associated with a particular mission by factoring in all known risks to the spacecraft during its mission. The threat to mission and human life posed by the micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) environment is one of the risks. NASA uses the BUMPER II program to provide point estimate predictions of MMOD risk for the Space Shuttle and the ISS. However, BUMPER II does not provide uncertainty bounds or confidence intervals for its predictions. In this paper, we present possible approaches through which uncertainty bounds can be developed for the various damage prediction and ballistic limit equations encoded within the Shuttle and Station versions of BUMPER II.

Schonberg, W. P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A status report on the characterization of the microgravity environment of the International Space Station

A primary objective of the International Space Station is to provide a long-term quiescent environment for the conduct of scientific research for a variety of microgravity science disciplines. Since continuous human presence on the space station began in November 2000 through the end of Increment-6, over 1260 hours of crew time have been allocated to research. However, far more research time has been accumulated by experiments controlled on the ground. By the end of the time period covered by this paper (end of Increment-6), the total experiment hours performed on the station are well over 100,000 hours (Expedition 6 Press Kit: Station Begins Third Year of Human Occupation, Boeing/USA/NASA, October 25, 2002). This paper presents the results of the on-going effort by the Principal Investigator Microgravity Services project, at NASA Glenn Research Center, in Cleveland, Ohio, to characterize the microgravity environment of the International Space Station in order to keep the microgravity scientific community apprised of the reduced gravity environment provided by the station for the performance of space experiments. This paper focuses on the station microgravity environment for Increments 5 and 6. During that period over 580 Gbytes of acceleration data were collected, out of which over 34,790 hours were analyzed. The results presented in this paper are divided into two sections: quasi-steady and vibratory. For the quasi-steady analysis, over 7794 hours of acceleration data were analyzed, while over 27,000 hours were analyzed for the vibratory analysis. The results of the data analysis are presented in this paper in the form of a grand summary for the period under consideration. For the quasi-steady acceleration response, results are presented in the form of a 95% confidence interval for the station during "normal microgravity mode operations" for the following three attitudes: local vertical local horizontal, X-axis perpendicular to the orbit plane and the Russian torque equilibrium attitude. The same analysis was performed for the station during "non-microgravity mode operations" to assess the station quasi-steady acceleration environment over a long period of time. The same type of analysis was performed for the vibratory, but a 95th percentile benchmark was used, which shows the overall acceleration magnitude during Increments 5 and 6. The results, for both quasi-steady and vibratory acceleration response, show that the station is not yet meeting the microgravity requirements during the microgravity mode operations. However, it should be stressed that the requirements apply only at assembly complete, whereas the results presented below apply up to the station's configuration at the end of Increment-6. c2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ISS Project↗
NASA NTRS2005

Proper Motions of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies from Hubble Space Telescope Imaging: Measurement for URSA Minor - 3

This article presents a measurement of the proper motion of the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy determined from images taken with the Hubble Space Telescope in two distinct fields. Each field contains a quasi-stellar object that serves as the "reference point". Integrating the motion of Ursa Minor in a realistic potential for the Milky Way produces orbital elements. The perigalacticon and apogalacticon are 40 (10, 76) and 89 (78, 160) kpc, respectively, where the values in the parentheses represent the 95% confidence intervals derived from Monte Carlo experiments. The eccentricity of the orbit is 0.39 (0.09, 0.79), and the orbital period is 1.5 (1.1, 2.7) Gyr. The orbit is retrograde and inclined by 124 degrees (94 deg, 36 deg ) to the Galactic plane. Ursa Minor is not a likely member of a proposed stream of galaxies on similar orbits around the Milky Way, nor is the plane of its orbit coincident with a recently proposed planar alignment of galaxies around the Milky Way. Comparing the orbits of Ursa Minor and Carina shows no reason for the different star formation histories of these two galaxies. Ursa Minor must contain dark matter to have a high probability of having survived disruption by the Galactic tidal force until the present.

FLUX RESIDUALS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Small Vocabulary Recognition Using Surface Electromyography in an Acoustically Harsh Environment

This paper presents results of electromyographic-based (EMG-based) speech recognition on a small vocabulary of 15 English words. The work was motivated in part by a desire to mitigate the effects of high acoustic noise on speech intelligibility in communication systems used by first responders. Both an off-line and a real-time system were constructed. Data were collected from a single male subject wearing a fireghter's self-contained breathing apparatus. A single channel of EMG data was used, collected via surface sensors at a rate of 104 samples/s. The signal processing core consisted of an activity detector, a feature extractor, and a neural network classifier. In the off-line phase, 150 examples of each word were collected from the subject. Generalization testing, conducted using bootstrapping, produced an overall average correct classification rate on the 15 words of 74%, with a 95% confidence interval of [71%, 77%]. Once the classifier was trained, the subject used the real-time system to communicate and to control a robotic device. The real-time system was tested with the subject exposed to an ambient noise level of approximately 95 decibels.

Betts, Bradley J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Validating Coherence Measurements Using Aligned and Unaligned Coherence Functions

This paper describes a novel approach based on the use of coherence functions and statistical theory for sensor validation in a harsh environment. By the use of aligned and unaligned coherence functions and statistical theory one can test for sensor degradation, total sensor failure or changes in the signal. This advanced diagnostic approach and the novel data processing methodology discussed provides a single number that conveys this information. This number as calculated with standard statistical procedures for comparing the means of two distributions is compared with results obtained using Yuen's robust statistical method to create confidence intervals. Examination of experimental data from Kulite pressure transducers mounted in a Pratt & Whitney PW4098 combustor using spectrum analysis methods on aligned and unaligned time histories has verified the effectiveness of the proposed method. All the procedures produce good results which demonstrates how robust the technique is.

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗
NASA NTRS2006

MEASURING THE MASS OF 4UO900-40 DYNAMICALLY

Accurate measurements of neutron star masses are needed to constrain the equation of state of neutron star matter - of importance to both particle physics and the astrophysics of neutron stars - and to identify the evolutionary track of the progenitor stars that form neutron stars. The best measured values of the mass of 4UO900-40 (= Vela XR-l), 1.86 +/- 0.16 Msun (Barziv et al. 2001) and 1.93 +/- 0.20 Msun (Abubekerov et al. 2004), make it a leading candidate for the most massive neutron star known. The direct relationship between the maximum mass of neutron stars and the equation of state of ultra-dense matter makes 4UO900-40 an important neutron star mass to determine accurately. The confidence interval on previous mass estimates, obtained from observations that include parameters determined by non-dynamical methods, are not small enough to significantly restrict possible equations of state. We describe here a purely dynamical method for determining the mass of 4UO900-40, an X-ray pulsar, using the reprocessed UV pulses emitted by its BO.5Ib companion. One can derive the instantaneous radial velocity of each component by simultaneous X-ray and UV observations at the two quadratures of the system. The Doppler shift caused by the primary's rotational velocity and the illumination pattern of the X-rays on the primary, two of the three principal contributors to the uncertainty on the derived mass of the neutron star, almost exactly cancel by symmetry in this method. A heuristic measurement of the mass of 4UO900-40 using observations obtained previously with the High Speed Photometer on HST is given in Appendix A.

Dolan, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Effects of Hydrogen on GRCop-84

This report is a section of the final report on the GRCop-84 task of the Constellation Program and incorporates the results obtained between October 2000 and September 2005 when the program ended. GRCop-84 contains approximately 5.5 wt% Nb. Nb can react with H and embrittle easily. Previous work had indicated the thermodynamic possibility that Cr 2 Nb could react with H and form niobium hydrides in the presence of high pressure H such as seen in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. In this study, samples were charged with H and then tested in both high pressure H and He environments to determine if measurable differences existed which indicate that hydrogen embrittlement occurs in GRCop-84. Tensile, notched tensile, stress rupture and low cycle fatigue properties were surveyed. High pressure H environment stress rupture testing resulted in a lower reduction in area than a high pressure He environment, and the LCF lives at high strain ranges fall below the lower 95 percent confidence interval for the baseline data, but in general no significant differences were noted either between H and He environment tests or between hydrogen charged materials and the baseline, uncharged extruded GRCop-84 data sets. There was also no discernable evidence of the formation of hydrides or changes in fracture morphology indicating hydrogen embrittlement occurred.

Ellis, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the Modified Allan Variance

A paper at the 1992 FCS showed how to express the modified Allan variance (mvar) in terms of the third difference of the cumulative sum of time residuals. Although this reformulated definition was presented merely as a computational trick for simplifying the calculation of mvar estimates, it has since turned out to be a powerful theoretical tool for deriving the statistical quality of those estimates in terms of their equivalent degrees of freedom (edf), defined for an estimator V by edf V = 2(EV)2/(var V). Confidence intervals for mvar can then be constructed from levels of the appropriate 2 distribution.

Allan Variance↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Interplay Between Strategic And Adaptive Control Mechanisms In Plastic Recalibration Of Locomotor Function

We have previously shown that viewing simulated rotary self-motion during treadmill locomotion causes immediate strategic modifications (Richards et al. 2004) as well as an after effect reflecting adaptive modification of the control of position and trajectory during over-ground locomotion (Mulavara et al. 2005). The process of sensorimotor adaptation is comprised of both strategic and adaptive control mechanisms. Strategic control involves cognitive, on-line corrections to limb movements once one is aware of a sensory discordance. Over an extended period of exposure to the sensory discordance, new strategic sensorimotor coordination patterns are reinforced until they become more automatic, and therefore adaptive, in nature. The objective of this study was to investigate how strategic changes in trunk control during exposure to simulated rotary self-motion during treadmill walking influences adaptive modification of locomotor heading direction during over-ground stepping. Subjects (n = 10) walked on a motorized linear treadmill while viewing a wide field-of-view virtual scene for 24 minutes. The scene was static for the first 4 minutes and then, for the last 20 minutes, depicted constant rate self-motion equivalent to walking in a counter-clockwise, circular path around the perimeter of a room. Subjects performed five stepping trials both before and after the exposure period to assess after effects. Results from our previous study showed a significant change in heading direction (HD) during post-exposure step tests that was opposite the direction in which the scene rotated during the adaptation period. For the present study, we quantified strategic modifications in trunk movement control during scene exposure using normalized root mean square (R(sub p)) variation of the subject's 3D trunk positions and normalized sum of standard deviations (R(sub o)) variation of 3D trunk orientations during scene rotation relative to that during static scene presentation. Associated 95% confidence intervals, CI(sub P) and CI(sub O), were calculated to investigate the variation of strategic modifications during scene exposure. Repeated measures ANOVA and individual subject regression analyses showed that R(sub P) and R(sub O) (i.e. strategic modifications) for trunk fore/aft (X) and yaw movements, respectively, decreased significantly over the exposure period. Furthermore, we found a significant correlation between the magnitude change in HD and the rate at which the variation of strategic modifications in trunk X decreased. We also found evidence of a correlation between HD and the rate at which strategic modifications in trunk yaw decreased (p = .06). We infer that adaptive recalibration of locomotor trajectory using optic flow stimuli depends on the rate at which strategic intervention is reduced.

Richards, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Uncertainty Analysis for a Jet Flap Airfoil

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was performed to quantify the potential uncertainties of lift and pitching moment coefficient calculations from a computational fluid dynamics code, relative to an experiment, for a jet flap airfoil configuration. Uncertainties due to a number of factors including grid density, angle of attack and jet flap blowing coefficient were examined. The ANOVA software produced a numerical model of the input coefficient data, as functions of the selected factors, to a user-specified order (linear, 2-factor interference, quadratic, or cubic). Residuals between the model and actual data were also produced at each of the input conditions, and uncertainty confidence intervals (in the form of Least Significant Differences or LSD) for experimental, computational, and combined experimental / computational data sets were computed. The LSD bars indicate the smallest resolvable differences in the functional values (lift or pitching moment coefficient) attributable solely to changes in independent variable, given just the input data points from selected data sets. The software also provided a collection of diagnostics which evaluate the suitability of the input data set for use within the ANOVA process, and which examine the behavior of the resultant data, possibly suggesting transformations which should be applied to the data to reduce the LSD. The results illustrate some of the key features of, and results from, the uncertainty analysis studies, including the use of both numerical (continuous) and categorical (discrete) factors, the effects of the number and range of the input data points, and the effects of the number of factors considered simultaneously.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reliability Considerations for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels on Spacecraft

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are used to store gases under high pressure onboard spacecraft. These are used for a variety of purposes such as propelling liquid fuel etc, Kevlar, glass, Carbon and other more recent fibers have all been in use to overwrap the vessels. COPVs usually have a thin metallic liner with the primary purpose of containing the gases and prevent any leakage. The liner is overwrapped with filament wound composite such as Kevlar, Carbon or Glass fiber. Although the liner is required to perform in the leak before break mode making the failure a relatively benign mode, the overwrap can fail catastrophically under sustained load due to stress rupture. It is this failure mode that is of major concern as the stored energy of such vessels is often great enough ta cause loss of crew and vehicle. The present paper addresses some of the reliability concerns associated specifically with Kevlar Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels. The primary focus of the paper is on how reliability of COPV's are established for the purpose of deciding in general their flight worthiness and continued use. Analytical models based on existing design data will be presented showing how to achieve the required reliability metric to the end of a specific period of performance. Uncertainties in the design parameters and how they affect reliability and confidence intervals will be addressed as well. Some trade studies showing how reliability changes with time during a program period will be presented.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Path Loss Prediction Over the Lunar Surface Utilizing a Modified Longley-Rice Irregular Terrain Model

This study introduces the use of a modified Longley-Rice irregular terrain model and digital elevation data representative of an analogue lunar site for the prediction of RF path loss over the lunar surface. The results are validated by theoretical models and past Apollo studies. The model is used to approximate the path loss deviation from theoretical attenuation over a reflecting sphere. Analysis of the simulation results provides statistics on the fade depths for frequencies of interest, and correspondingly a method for determining the maximum range of communications for various coverage confidence intervals. Communication system engineers and mission planners are provided a link margin and path loss policy for communication frequencies of interest.

Foore, Larry↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Generalized Linear Covariance Analysis

We review and extend in two directions the results of prior work on generalized covariance analysis methods. This prior work allowed for partitioning of the state space into "solve-for" and "consider" parameters, allowed for differences between the formal values and the true values of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances, and explicitly partitioned the errors into subspaces containing only the influence of the measurement noise, process noise, and a priori solve-for and consider covariances. In this work, we explicitly add sensitivity analysis to this prior work, and relax an implicit assumption that the batch estimator s anchor time occurs prior to the definitive span. We also apply the method to an integrated orbit and attitude problem, in which gyro and accelerometer errors, though not estimated, influence the orbit determination performance. We illustrate our results using two graphical presentations, which we call the "variance sandpile" and the "sensitivity mosaic," and we compare the linear covariance results to confidence intervals associated with ensemble statistics from a Monte Carlo analysis.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
NASA NTRS2008

Crack Growth Properties of Sealing Glasses

The crack growth properties of several sealing glasses were measured using constant stress rate testing in 2% and 95% RH (relative humidity). Crack growth parameters measured in high humidity are systematically smaller (n and B) than those measured in low humidity, and velocities for dry environments are approx. 100x lower than for wet environments. The crack velocity is very sensitivity to small changes in RH at low RH. Confidence intervals on parameters that were estimated from propagation of errors were comparable to those from Monte Carlo simulation.

Salem, Jonathan A.↗