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Concordance

Dimension reduction techniques have long been an important topic in statistics, and active subspaces (AS) have received much attention this past decade in the computer experiments literature. The most common approach towards estimating the AS is to use Monte Carlo with numerical gradient evaluation. This software takes a new approach towards estimating the active subspace, in which Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is used as a surrogate model, and relevant calculation are obtained analytically. Using a MARS surrogate has many advantages including improved scaling, better estimation of active subspaces in high dimensions and the ability to handle a large number of prior distributions in closed form. This software is also capable of conducting a so-called "concordance analysis", using a generalization of ASs which we refer to as "Co-Active" subspaces.

Rumsey, Kelin↗

Joint Contour Location

The joint contour location method is an active learning technique that identifies input configurations that return pre-specified values of multiple independent computer experiments simultaneously. This code works with both Gaussian Processes and Deep Gaussian Processes

Quinlan, KevinR [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Geometric pre-patterning based tuning of the period doubling onset strain during thin film wrinkling

Wrinkling of supported thin films is an easy-to-implement and low-cost fabrication technique for generation of stretch-tunable periodic micro and nano-scale structures. However, the tunability of such structures is often limited by the emergence of an undesirable period doubled mode at high strains. Predictively tuning the onset strain for period doubling via existing techniques requires one to have extensive knowledge about the nonlinear pattern formation behavior. Herein, a geometric pre-patterning based technique is introduced to delay the onset of period doubling that can be implemented to predictively tune the onset strain even with limited system knowledge. The technique comprises pre-patterning the film/base bilayer with a sinusoidal pattern that has the same period as the natural wrinkle period of the system. The effectiveness of this technique has been verified via physical and computational experiments on the polydimethylsiloxane/glass bilayer system. It is observed that the period doubling onset strain can be increased from the typical value of 20% for flat films to greater than 30% with a modest pre-pattern aspect ratio (2∙amplitude/period) of 0.15. In addition, finite element simulations reveal that (i) the onset strain can be increased up to a limit by increasing the amplitude of the pre-patterns and (ii) the delaying effect can be captured entirely by the pre-pattern geometry. As a result, one can implement this technique even with limited system knowledge, such as material properties or film thickness, by simply replicating pre-existing wrinkled patterns to generate prepatterned bilayers. Thus, geometric pre-patterning is a practical scheme to suppress period doubling that can increase the operating range of stretch-tunable wrinkle-based devices by at least 50%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic Optimization for Grid Resilience. FY18 Final Technical Report

The optimal restoration problem lies at the foundation of the evaluation and improvement of resilience in power systems. In this report we present a scalable decomposition algorithm for solving this problem for realistic power systems. The algorithm has been developed in three major research threads, corresponding to the chapters in the present report. Chapter 1 studies mixed-integer programming (MIP) formulations for the requirement that each electrical island that appears after a recon guration must have at least one energized generator. We provide three alternative MIP formulations for this restriction, show their equivalence, and prove that two of them are stronger in terms of their linear programming relaxation than the formulation most commonly used in the power systems literature. Since the time to solve MIPs can vary signi cantly between equivalent formulations, we also present computational experiments on IEEE test systems for the Intentional Controlled Islanding (ICI) and the Black Start Allocation (BSA) problems. We observe that a polynomially separable, exponential in size, strong formulation yields the best performance for the BSA problem and exhibits a comparable performance to a linear in size, weak formulation for the ICI problem. Chapter 2 presents a methodology to generate mixed-integer linear approximations of the AC power ow equations governing lines, transformers (including tap regulators and phase shifters), shunt and series compensators, and consumption responsive to voltage. Our approximations are capable of capturing limitations for power grids under abnormal or uncommon operating conditions where common assumptions used in power ow relaxations may not hold. Particularly, the approximation captures overvoltages under almost no load, which is a major concern when energizing lines after a blackout. The method constructs piecewise linear approximations of the non-linear power ow equations by minimizing the squared approximation error over a subset of the feasible domain. We test the method using a realistic database for the Chilean system (1548 buses, 1114 lines, 564 transformers). The resulting approximations yield root mean square errors in the order of 0.05pu and are successfully applied to solve a transmission switching instance for the Chilean system. Chapter 3 presents our algorithm for optimal restoration. The algorithm works by partitioning the problem into a master problem and a slave problem. The master problem optimizes over energization sequences of generators, buses and branches, for the entire restoration horizon, while respecting the energization requiments studied in Chapter 1. The slave problem veri es that there exist power ow solutions supporting the energization sequences proposed by the master problem, adding cuts to the master if an infeasible sequence is detected.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Applying the ATOM drug discovery platform to small-molecule antivirals (Annual Report)

The objective of this project is to advance our understanding of the ML approaches needed to find the most potent inhibitor through an AI guided search that simultaneously optimizes for limited off-target safety activity and desirable pharmacokinetics (PK) properties. The methods will be tested for inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 activity through inhibition of the main protease as a demonstration, but the methodology will be developed to apply to any biothreat target using a small-molecule protein binding-based intervention, with limited experimental data. Computational experiments are conducted using our ATOM generative molecular design (GMD) loop software, which is the implementation of our AI/ML drug design pipeline.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Aerodynamic Data Fusion Toward the Digital Twin Paradigm

This paper considers the fusion of two aerodynamic data sets originating from differing types of physical or computer experiments. This paper specifically addresses the fusion of 1) noisy and in-complete fields from wind-tunnel measurements and 2) deterministic but biased fields from numerical simulations. These two data sources are fused in order to estimate the true field that best matches measured quantities that serve as the ground truth. For example, two sources of pressure fields about an aircraft are fused based on measured forces and moments from a wind-tunnel experiment. A fundamental challenge in this problem is that the true field is unknown and cannot be estimated with 100% certainty. A Bayesian framework is employed to infer the true fields conditioned on measured quantities of interest; essentially a statistical correction to the data is performed. The fused data may then be used to construct more accurate surrogate models suitable for early stages of aerospace design. An extension of the proper orthogonal decomposition with constraints is also introduced to solve the same problem. In this work, both methods are demonstrated on fusing the pressure distributions for flow past the RAE2822 airfoil and the Common Research Model wing at transonic conditions. Comparison of both methods reveals that the Bayesian method is more robust when data are scarce and capable of also accounting for uncertainties in the data. Furthermore, given adequate data, the proper-orthogonal-decomposition-based and Bayesian approaches lead to surprisingly similar results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Two-Stage Approach for Routing Multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles with Stochastic Fuel Consumption

The past decade has seen a substantial increase in the use of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in both civil and military applications. This article addresses an important aspect of refueling in the context of routing multiple small UAVs to complete a surveillance or data collection mission. Specifically, this article formulates a multiple-UAV routing problem with the refueling constraint of minimizing the overall fuel consumption for all the vehicles as a two-stage stochastic optimization problem with uncertainty associated with the fuel consumption of each vehicle. The two-stage model allows for the application of sample average approximation (SAA). Although the SAA solution asymptotically converges to the optimal solution for the two-stage model, the SAA run time can be prohibitive for medium- and large-scale test instances. Hence, we develop a tabu search-based heuristic that exploits the model structure while considering the uncertainty in fuel consumption. Extensive computational experiments corroborate the benefits of the two-stage model compared to a deterministic model and the effectiveness of the heuristic for obtaining high-quality solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of croplands, which accounts for the lion's share of human water consumption, is critical in understanding these water shortage trajectories. Despite irrigation's defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories of land use that underlie irrigation demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks in the form of human instigation of and subsequent adaptation to water shortages via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying the model to the continental United States to explore water shortage outcomes that emerge from the interplay between hydrologic-driven surface water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. The extended modeling framework is used to conduct a hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences between a model run with and without the incorporation of adaptive farmer agents. These comparative simulations reveal that accounting for farmer adaptation via irrigated crop area changes substantially alters modeled water shortage outcomes, with US-wide annual water shortages being reduced by as much as 42 % when comparing adaptive and non-adaptive versions of the model forced with US climatology from the period 1950–2009.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model run output for WM-ABM 2024 HESS Publication

Model output for computational experiments introducing WM-ABM. See associated HESS publication here: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1604/ all_nldas_cdl_data_v3.txt - Cropland Data Layer data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution for input into the PMP calibration process. Variables include NLDAS ID, crop type, year, the count of pixels in the grid cell of the crop type, CDL crop ID, and GCAM crop ID. 20230115 ABM runs - WM-ABM model outputs for various scenarios described in HESS publication. If multiple versions exist (e.g., v2, v3, etc.) latest version indicates dataset generated for manuscript. The "baseline" run is the primary run, where as the "memXX" runs indicate sensitivity runs testing different parameters of agent memory. Output files starting with "abm_results_" include groundwater irrigated acres and surface water irrigated acres for each farm/agent combination. Other CSV outputs provide summary statistics of various agent and water shortage outcomes, used for generation of figures in the HESS manuscript.

ABM↗

Proactive Operations and Investment Planning via Stochastic Optimization to Enhance Power Systems Extreme Weather Resilience

We present novel stochastic optimization models to improve power systems resilience to extreme weather events. We consider proactive redispatch, transmission line hardening, and transmission line capacity increases as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather. Our model is based on linearized or "DC" optimal power flow, similar to models in widespread use by independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission operators (RTOs). Our computational experiments indicate that proactive redispatch alone can reduce the expected load shed by as much as 25% relative to standard economic dispatch. This resiliency enhancement strategy requires no capital investments and is implementable by ISOs and RTOs solely through operational adjustments. We additionally demonstrate that transmission line hardening and increases in transmission capacity can, in limited quantities, be effective strategies to further enhance power grid resiliency, although at significant capital investment cost. We perform a cross validation analysis to demonstrate the robustness of proposed recommendations. Our proposed model can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or combination of such strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Modeling Cell Migration with Convolutional Neural Network and Deep Reinforcement Learning

Cell migration modeling is a longstanding biological challenge, which is regulated by a highly complex set of regulatory mechanisms at multiple scales in a developmental system. This study presents a generic framework for regulatory mechanisms discovery during cell migration. This framework uses convolutional neural networks and reinforcement learning to better study navigation rules and mechanisms during cell migration. This framework adopts a flexible model-free approach that directly takes raw images as the sensory input. It can better handle simulation scenarios that involve cell division during embryogenesis. Computational experiments also prove that this model achieves better performance than a previous model with a fully connected neural network.

Wang, Zi↗

Sparse Data Management in HDF5

The importance of sparse data management is growing with data produced by large-scale experimental and observational facilities that contain small amounts of non-zero values. In this document, we explore different design options to support sparse data in HDF5, one of the most popular highperformance I/O libraries and file formats used for scientific data. We discuss several use cases and requirements. Our main hard design constraint is that any changes to the HDF5 dataset API would be a burden on users and not acceptable. The remaining options are discussed below. We provide rationale for what we believe is the strongest candidate and describe how its potential benefits can be simulated with the existing HDF5 library. We have conducted a set of computational experiments the results of which are reported here. They show that our candidate meets all relevant requirements and gives us a certain degree of confidence for an HDF5 library-native implementation.

Mainzer, John↗

Real-Time Radiological Source Term Estimation for Multiple Sources in Cluttered Environments

A particle filter algorithm is presented to estimate the position, strength, and cardinality of an unknown number of radioactive point sources in an obstacle-rich environment using count measurements. The algorithm addresses gaps in the prior literature by incorporating two novel elements. The first is a precomputation step in which local terrain and obstacle data is processed to compute attenuation kernels throughout the search area. This enables rapid estimation performance in obstacle-rich environments as measurements are gathered. The second novel feature is a dynamic particle allocation technique in which the number of particles is adjusted in real time to meet convergence goals. This feature allows the algorithm to scale more efficiently to scenarios with a larger number of sources. A series of computational experiments using simulated data demonstrates the algorithm’s performance in a cluttered environment with up to eight sources.

Kemp, Samuel↗

On-Sensor Data Filtering using Neuromorphic Computing for High Energy Physics Experiments

This work describes the investigation of neuromorphic computing-based spiking neural network (SNN) models used to filter data from sensor electronics in high energy physics experiments conducted at the High Luminosity Large Hadron Collider. We present our approach for developing a compact neuromorphic model that filters out the sensor data based on the particle's transverse momentum with the goal of reducing the amount of data being sent to the downstream electronics. The incoming charge waveforms are converted to streams of binary-valued events, which are then processed by the SNN. We present our insights on the various system design choices - from data encoding to optimal hyperparameters of the training algorithm - for an accurate and compact SNN optimized for hardware deployment. Our results show that an SNN trained with an evolutionary algorithm and an optimized set of hyperparameters obtains a signal efficiency of about 91% with nearly half as many parameters as a deep neural network.

R. Kulkarni, Shruti↗

Laser-driven flyer plate impact: Computational studies guided by experiments

We present a computational approach using a multimaterial, arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian code termed ALE3D to model the nanosecond/micrometer dynamics of the launch of 0.5–4.5 km/s laser-driven metal flyer plates and the impact with stationary targets of Pyrex and fused silica glasses, and Lexan and Plexiglas polymers, producing pressures in the target in the range of 5–20 GPa. The simulations are compared to experimental results where the flyer velocity profile and the velocity profile imparted to the target material were measured with high-speed velocimetry. The experimental flyer launch by a high-intensity pulsed laser is modeled by depositing heat into a thin vaporizable layer under the flyer plate. This model produces a flyer plate that has not been exposed to the laser pulse, allowing us to compare the properties of the real flyer to a simulated ideal flyer. The simulations of target impact are generally in good agreement with the experiment except at the highest impact velocities where the shock release process in the experiment is slower than that in the simulation. The cause of this disagreement is attributed to an inadequate description of the shock viscosity during the nanosecond unloading process.

Stekovic, Svjetlana (ORCID:0000000163878070)↗