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NASA NTRS2023

A Community Convention for Ecological Forecasting: Output Files and Metadata Version 1.0

This paper summarizes the open community conventions developed by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI) for the common formatting and archiving of ecological forecasts and the metadata associated with these forecasts. Such open standards are intended to promote interoperability and facilitate forecast communication, distribution, validation, and synthesis. For output files, we first describe the convention conceptually in terms of global attributes, forecast dimensions, forecasted variables, and ancillary indicator variables. We then illustrate the application of this convention to the two file formats that are currently preferred by the EFI, netCDF (network common data form), and comma-separated values (CSV), but note that the convention is extensible to future formats. For metadata, EFI's convention identifies a subset of conventional metadata variables that are required (e.g., temporal resolution and output variables) but focuses on developing a framework for storing information about forecast uncertainty propagation, data assimilation, and model complexity, which aims to facilitate cross-forecast synthesis. The initial application of this convention expands upon the Ecological Metadata Language (EML), a commonly used metadata standard in ecology. To facilitate community adoption, we also provide a Github repository containing a metadata validator tool and several vignettes in R and Python on how to both write and read in the EFI standard. Lastly, we provide guidance on forecast archiving, making an important distinction between short-term dissemination and long-term forecast archiving, while also touching on the archiving of code and workflows. Overall, the EFI convention is a living document that can continue to evolve over time through an open community process.

Michael C. Dietze↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Collaborative Space Weather Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

Space weather models have been actively developed by the international research community, covering extensive spatial and physical domains. Still, many of the ground-breaking models remain a granular effort, insulated from a wider research audience, particularly that in different domains, and possible end users. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) seeks to remove such barriers to collaboration and coordination by providing a convenient platform for hosting space weather models and associated services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. Moreover, the multi-disciplinary science support team at CCMC facilitates and enables collaboration across domains. In our presentation, we will discuss the space weather model services at CCMC, including Runs-on-Request, Real-Time Continuous Runs, and Instant Runs. We will also review new and updated models added to the extensive collection of space weather models hosted at CCMC. We will focus on trends in model, service, and science support utilization at CCMC as a proxy to the most pressing needs of the collaborative modeling community.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Integration of Earth Observations to Support Community Management of a Protected Area in Guatemala

Central America faces increasing challenges of deforestation and habitat fragmentation with complex drivers. Protected areas are one response to these challenges, forming a continuous forest stand subject to national conservation systems and laws. As part of a novel shared-management model, both the community of Santa María Tzejá and the Protected Areas Council of Guatemala (CONAP in Spanish) co-manage Cerro Cantil, a protected area in the Ixcán department of northwestern Guatemala covering approximately 314 ha. The SERVIR program, a joint initiative between NASA and USAID, in partnership with leaders from Santa María Tzejá, began a pilot project to explore how the integration of satellite remote sensing can support forest and biodiversity monitoring and contribute to the community’s reporting requirements. To assess Cerro Cantil’s potential role to protect endemic species between three larger protected areas, we model least cost corridors between Cerro Cantil and Laguna Lachuá, Visi Cabá, and Montes Azules for Alouatta pigra (Black Howler Monkey). Additionally, we evaluate the potential contribution of a forestry-conservation incentives program (PROBOSQUE) to stem fragmentation and support biodiversity by assessing the forest area overlapping both the modeled corridors and plots belonging to families enrolled in PROBOSQUE. Results contribute to community understanding of the value of Cerro Cantil to protect local biodiversity as well as the interaction of a forestry incentive program and protected area designation.

Biodiversity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Measurement Error in Dose-Response Models of Community Annoyance to Low-Noise Supersonic Flight

The primary research goal of the forthcoming NASA Quesst mission community test campaign is to collect representative community response data in support of the development of supersonic overflight noise certification standards. Beginning in 2026, NASA will fly the novel X-59 demonstrator aircraft over select communities in United States in order to demonstrate the possibility of low-noise supersonic flight over land and to collect objective measurements and subjective data on the perceptual experience of this new noise source. It is believed that a regression of a binary perceptual response (‘highly annoyed’ or ‘not’) on estimated noise levels (doses, measured in decibels) will provide a useful dose-response relationship for regulators. However, as these estimated doses will be subject to measurement error, naïve estimators of regression coefficients are inconsistent and slopes may be subject to attenuation bias. In this presentation, I contrast functional modeling of measurement error via simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) with structural Bayesian measurement error models. These methods are applied to available data collected during two NASA risk reduction studies in California in 2011 and Texas in 2018. I’ll conclude noting that in the presence of nonnegligible measurement errors, probabilities of annoyance may be overpredicted for low noise levels and underpredicted for high noise levels, therefore, methods of correcting for measurement error will be necessary to improve the utility of the dose-response relationship for policy-making purposes.

simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Connecting Community Scientific Hypotheses to Mars Sample Science

The proposed Mars Sample Return (MSR) program seeks to bring back to Earth a set of specially curated samples from the surface of Mars. The first segment of the MSR program is presently under-way; the Mars 2020 rover Perseverance has, to date, collected 24 samples of martian rock, regolith, and at-mosphere within Jezero crater. Its geologically diverse rock sample set can provide insight into the time evolu-tion of the Jezero environment, including the possible preservation of ancient biosignatures. Presently, a cache of 10 samples has been deposited in the Three Forks region on the floor of Jezero crater. These sam-ples, deemed scientifically return worthy by the Mars science community [1], are intended as a contingency sample set, as Perseverance has subsequently obtained more samples, and is therefore storing a more compre-hensive and scientifically valuable set of samples that will grow as the rover ascends to the rim of Jezero crater. The return of samples from Mars has been identi-fied as the highest priority planetary mission in the past three National Academies Decadal Surveys [2-4]. Sub-stantial work has gone into establishing science objec-tives for an MSR program, an overall framework for sample retrieval and analysis, and the expected impact on future Mars science and exploration (e.g., [5]). These objectives have been established at a relatively high level, e.g., “Interpret the primary geologic pro-cesses and history that formed the martian geologic rec-ord, with an emphasis on the role of water.” (Objective 1 in [5]) and are designed to encapsulate the broad sci-entific priorities of, and lay the groundwork for, inves-tigation strategies and measurements to be conducted by a future MSR program. It is from this overarching framework that the Connecting Community Scientific Hypotheses to Mars Sample Science workshop (‘The Workshop’) was conceived, with the purpose of distil-ling these high-level scientific objectives into discrete, testable hypotheses across a range of scientific disci-plines. The output of the workshop is meant to be a ‘hy-pothesis document’ serving as a starting point for cata-loging and condensing specific hypotheses for consid-eration by the scientific community. The template for this approach is based on the “driving hypotheses” de-veloped by the OSIRIS-REx team as part of their Sam-ple Analysis Plan [6].

Michael A Mischna↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Making Heliophysics Research More Open and Accessible at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

The Space Weather and Heliophysics modeling community seeks to improve our understanding of space weather events and their impact on human activities. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center’s (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) mission is to support the community by providing a convenient collaborative platform that brings together space weather models, model simulation data, curated datasets of solar events, and associated value-added services. Using these services, researchers and other end-users may exercise, evaluate, and intercompare contributed models, triage designated R2O models, as well as collaborate on a continuously updated archive of model run results. This presentation reports on CCMC’s ongoing efforts in making Heliophysics models and data more accessible, open, and reproducible. We will also explore interoperability within the ecosystem of CCMC services and how this ecosystem interoperates with external partner services and data streams.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling API Access to the Space Weather Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Over the span of 20 years, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) has been leading a number of community-driven services and applications that provide a free and open access to the cutting-edge space weather and Heliophysics models through a simple web-based interface. CCMC also oversees an open archive of user model simulations and related metadata, maintains space weather-related data streams, curates validation and event datasets, and more. To maximize utility of its complementary services and data holdings, CCMC has been gradually building up an ad-hoc set of interfaces and specifications that facilitate coupling and interconnection within the organization, while also simplifying management and monitoring of the data. As the models continue to grow in maturity and complexity, CCMC is looking to reduce the complexity for its end users by making public some of the internal APIs as well as implementing dedicated interfaces as required by the community. In this presentation, we will overview the current run services at CCMC and will describe our current and near-future efforts in providing interfaces to these services.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Harnessing Synthetic Communities and Microbial Recycling of Space Waste Streams for Biomanufacturing Applications

The long-term habitation of extraterrestrial environments such as the Moon or Mars presents significant challenges including supplying materials to sustain life. Off-world recycling of waste materials into biomanufacturer products may ameliorate this. Current literature highlights the need for efficient waste recycling systems to support the bioproduction of essential materials including foods, pharmaceuticals, and biomaterials. The study herein concerns itself with the investigation of three key aspects: 1) formulating an optimal wastewater media on which to grow recombinant microbes for bioproduction in space, 2) examining the potential for constructing stable and metabolically synergistic synthetic microbial communities for largescale and multi-tiered biomanufacturing, and 3) testing the efficacy of one such bioengineered enzyme, cutinase, on the degradation of PET plastics characteristic of those found in ISS waste as a model for recombinant recycling-based biomanufacturing of mission-critical substrates. Formulation of an optimal wastewater media involved growing several microorganisms on mixtures of synthetic planetary wastes representative of those found in space waste systems, combined with simple carbon sources derived from a physio-chemical CO conversion system to determine their growth potential. Potential synthetic microbial communities were conceptually designed, and their stability and metabolic synergism was evaluated within the context of co-cultures. Cutinase activity assays were utilized to determine the efficacy of bioengineered cutinase on PET plastic degradation. Findings will contribute to optimization of wastewater-based media formulations, data on stable synthetic microbial communities for bioproduction, and effective methods for measuring cutinase-based PET plastic degradation. These outcomes support the development of sustainable waste recycling systems for space habitation and aim to fill gaps in the current literature and proposing innovative solutions for waste recycling in space environments. By leveraging synthetic biology this study seeks to enhance the feasibility of long-term extraterrestrial habitation through sustainable resource management.

Bioprocessing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Community Response Testing Campaign with NASA's X-59 Aircraft

Prohibition of civil supersonic flight over land became federal regulation in 1973, currently codified in 14 CFR Part 91.817. Of concern, the sonic booms that result when aircraft travel at supersonic speeds were deemed an untenable source of noise affecting populations directly under and near flight paths. Over the past fifty years, research in aircraft design and shaping has led to the prospect of low-noise supersonic flight. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is building an experimental aircraft, the X-59, to demonstrate this capability. After completing flight test and design validation phases, NASA will field a national community testing campaign in order to collect data on how people perceive the sound from low-noise supersonic flight. The collected data will be provided to national and international regulators as they consider replacing the overland speed limit with a noise-based limit. This presentation provides an overview of the community test campaign, and identifies some of the key objectives, plans, and anticipated challenges.

X-59↗

NASA NTRS2024

An Extensible Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2-CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations are analyzed and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi- dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that using PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2-CAM6 PPE is publicly available, and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g. coupling to the land surface).

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2017

Achieving And Sustaining Human Exploration of Mars The Fourth Community Workshop (AM IV)

About a half decade ago, several professionals working mainly in industry on scenarios for initial human exploration of Mars exploration together recognized that, under generally similar assumptions, there was a fair degree of similarity among these scenarios. Moreover, opportunities should be sought for greater community input into NASAs own scenario-building for the future of human space flight. A series of focused community workshops were considered to be effective to critically assess the increasingly sophisticated scenarios. Explore Mars, Inc. the American Astronautical Society agreed to support them. Four workshops to date each involve about sixty professional scientists, engineers, technologists, and strategists from NASA, academia, aerospace corporations, the National Academies, consulting organizations, and potential international partners. Each workshop produced a series of presentations and reports briefed to NASA leadership and other stakeholders.

Achieving Sustaining Human Exploration of Mars The↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Community Noise Assessment of Urban Air Mobility Vehicle Operations using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool

In contrast to most commercial air traffic today, vehicles serving the urban air mobility (UAM) market are anticipated to operate in communities close to the public at large. The approved model for assessing environmental impact of air traffic actions in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), does not support analysis of such operations due to a combined lack of a UAM aircraft performance model and aircraft noise data. This paper discusses the initial development of a method to assess the acoustic impact of UAM fleet operations on the community using AEDT and demonstrates its use for representative UAM operations. In particular, methods were developed using fixed-point flight profiles and user-supplied noise data in a manner that avoids unwanted behavior in AEDT. A set of 32 routes in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area were assessed for single and multiple (fleet) operations for two concept vehicles.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Community Noise Assessment of Urban Air Mobility Vehicle Operations using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Second-Generation UAM Community Noise Assessment Using the FAA Aviation Environmental Design Tool

Vehicles serving the urban air mobility (UAM) market are anticipated to operate in communities close to the public at large. The approved model for assessing environmental impact of air traffic actions in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration’s Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), does not support analysis of such operations due to a combined lack of a UAM aircraft performance model and aircraft noise data. This paper discusses second-generation developments to assess the acoustic impact of UAM fleet operations on the community using AEDT and demonstrates its use for representative UAM operations. In particular, methods were developed to add broadband self noise into computed noise-power-distance data, and vertiport-centric operations were evaluated for two concept vehicles.

urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRS2022

Importance of Different Parameterization Changes for the Updated Dust Cycle Modeling in the Community Atmosphere Model (Version 6.1)

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6.1), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 2.1), simulates the life cycle (emission, transport, and deposition) of mineral dust and its interactions with physio-chemical components to quantify the impacts of dust on climate and the Earth system. The accuracy of such quantifications relies on how well dust-related processes are represented in the model. Here we update the parameterizations for the dust module, including those on the dust emission scheme, the aerosol dry deposition scheme, the size distribution of transported dust, and the treatment of dust particle shape. Multiple simulations were undertaken to evaluate the model performance against diverse observations, and to understand how each update alters the modeled dust cycle and the simulated dust direct radiative effect. The model–observation comparisons suggest that substantially improved model representations of the dust cycle are achieved primarily through the new more physically-based dust emission scheme. In comparison, the other modifications induced small changes to the modeled dust cycle and model–observation comparisons, except the size distribution of dust in the coarse mode, which can be even more influential than that of replacing the dust emission scheme. We highlight which changes introduced here are important for which regions, shedding light on further dust model developments required for more accurately estimating interactions between dust and climate.

mineral dust parameterizations↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose Error Correction Using Simulation Extrapolation for Community Noise Dose-Response Modeling

The objective of this work is to provide a framework to account and correct for dose error in dose-response modeling due to measurement uncertainty. Error in noise measurements, especially in the case of limited monitoring locations in a community, can lead to an attenuation or misestimation of parameters in dose-response models. This error can result in overpredicted annoyance at lower doses and underpredicted annoyance at higher doses. Simulated data in the present work are based on previous NASA community studies and incorporate a notional design for future studies with the X-59 aircraft. Several populations of different annoyance response sensitivities are included. Simulation extrapolation (SIMEX, Cook and Stefanski 1994) is used to correct for the dose error in a simple, fully pooled logistic regression. Results indicate the negative impact of attenuation is greatly diminished for all amounts of dose error considered, regardless of a population’s annoyance sensitivity. Therefore, SIMEX can help produce a more accurate dose-response relationship.

SIMEX↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Rationale for Experimental Designs Employed During Forthcoming NASA Quesst Mission Community Noise Campaigns

Since the publication of R.A. Fisher’s “The Arrangement of Field Experiments” in 1926, the enumerated principles that contributed to the improvement of agricultural field experiments in the early 20th century (randomization, replication, blocking, and appropriate variation of factors) remain hallmarks of all well-designed clinical trials and scientific endeavors in the 21st century. Beginning in 2026, NASA will conduct community noise campaigns with the first-of-kind X-59 experimental aircraft to 1) demonstrate the possibility of quiet supersonic flight over land and 2) to collect live data about annoyance (a categorical response) in relation to estimated noise levels (an experimental factor) produced by the new noise phenomenon, a low-noise “sonic thump”. The resulting predicted relationship between perceptual response and estimated noise level, e.g., mixed logistic regression or related models in the class of generalized linear (mixed) models, is believed to be a useful policy tool that domestic and international regulators can use when deciding whether existing prohibitions of supersonic flight over land can be replaced with a noise-based limit. The X-59 is engineered with the expectation that annoyance in the tested ranges should be a rare outcome, and, consequently, NASA convened an interdisciplinary team to examine and refine the rationale underlying the experimental design for future community campaigns. In this presentation, we review relevant literature on experiments with rare binary outcomes, relate the deliberations of the NASA team to tenets of good experimental design, and highlight several challenges and operational realities of this ambitious campaign.

Design of Experiments; blocking; randomization; co↗

NASA NTRS1970

Detection and identification of benthic communities and shoreline features in Biscayne Bay

Progress made in the development of a technique for identifying and delinating benthic and shoreline communities using multispectral imagery is described. Images were collected with a multispectral scanner system mounted in a C-47 aircraft. Concurrent with the overflight, ecological ground- and sea-truth information was collected at 19 sites in the bay and on the shore. Preliminary processing of the scanner imagery with a CDC 1604 digital computer provided the optimum channels for discernment among different underwater and coastal objects. Automatic mapping of the benthic plants by multiband imagery and the mapping of isotherms and hydrodynamic parameters by digital model can become an effective predictive ecological tool when coupled together. Using the two systems, it appears possible to predict conditions that could adversely affect the benthic communities. With the advent of the ERTS satellites and space platforms, imagery data could be obtained which, when used in conjunction with water-level and meteorological data, would provide for continuous ecological monitoring.

Kolipinski, M. C.↗