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Floating Photovoltaics in Hydropower Reservoirs in the United States

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of floating photovoltaics (FPV) in federally regulated reservoirs within the continental United States (CONUS) and to present a methodology for capturing the true costs of deployment, potential environmental impacts, and regulatory pathways for open-loop hydropower reservoirs. It is intended for stakeholders who may not be solar industry experts but who are interested in exploring the potential for FPV in their reservoirs. While there are promising opportunities, particularly in enhancing dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and potentially improving compliance with existing hydropower licenses, the current capital costs of FPV are not yet competitive with traditional land-based solar installations at the utility-scale when comparing the LCOE results. A competitive financial outlook is achievable when applying a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and considering a 5% reduction from the baseline capital expenditures (CapEx) at the Tuckertown Reservoir in North Carolina case study. The study is structured around three key pillars of research: technical potential, environmental impacts and regulatory considerations, and technoeconomic analysis. This report provides a nationwide assessment of the opportunities for FPV in terms of capacity, measured in direct current megawatts (MWDC), in reservoirs managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Additionally, the report introduces a heuristic model for estimating the CapEx of utility-scale FPV projects (1–100 MW), offering a baseline cost estimate for stakeholders. Finally, the report applies these models to a case study of a hydropower reservoir in North Carolina to present site-specific results.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

Concentrating Rare Earth Elements in Coal mine drainage Using Coal Combustion Products through Abandoned Mine Land Reclamation

Rare earth elements (REEs) (including scandium, yttrium and a group of 15 lanthanides) are often considered to be critical components in the productions of renewable energy hardware, electric vehicles, health care and military equipment, and consumer electronic products. The demand of REEs has been projected to be growing at an annual rate of 5-9% in the next 25 years. In 2011, the global demand of total rare earth oxides (REOs) was estimated to be approximately 105,000 tons, which is expected to grow to 210,000 tons by 2025. China overwhelmingly dominates the current worldwide rare earth productions but has strategically restricted its exports, causing significant instability for the global market. In response to the increasing demand for REEs and the supply dominance of China, identifying alternative sources of REEs has become a critical issue for the United States and other countries. Coal, coal ash, and coal mine drainage (CMD) are considered to be the alternative sources of REEs. In the U.S., high REE concentrations have been reported to be closely associated with coal deposits, including the Appalachian Basins. When surface and/or groundwater come in contact with geologic strata containing sulfide minerals exposed by coal mining, the accelerated oxidation of sulfide minerals in the presence of ferric iron and/or oxygen can produce sulfuric acid. The process promotes the weathering of REE-bearing rocks and minerals in the host geologic strata. Compared to average river water and seawater, the concentrations of REEs can be orders of magnitude higher in CMD. In this study, we demonstrated a trap-extract-precipitate (TEP) process that can effectively recover REEs from CMD. The three-stage TEP process uses alkaline industrial by-products to capture REEs from CMD and then applies an extraction/precipitation procedure to produce a feedstock that can be economically processed to produce marketable rare earth oxides. The alkaline industrial by-products tested in this study include the residual from a water softening process (DRWP sludge) and two types of stabilized flue gas desulfurization materials (sFGDs). sFGD material is a mixture of lime (CaO) and two coal combustion by-products, calcium sulfite FGD by-product and fly ash. The objectives of this study are to (1) validate the effectiveness and feasibility; (2) determine mechanisms controlling the rare earth recovery, (3) quantify the associated economic and environmental benefits, and (4) evaluate the full-scale application. To achieve these objectives, tasks to be carried out in this proposed project are organized into three phases. In the first phase, the research team collaborated with Ohio Department of Natural Resources, American Electric Power, The Wilds (a nonprofit wildlife conservation organization), and a private landowner to carry out field investigations aimed to screen and evaluate the seasonal changes of rare earths in the CMD discharges that have high recovery potentials. Next, the recovery of REEs from CMD was tested using a series of lab-scale column and batch tests under, respectively, percolation and completely mixed conditions. Results obtained from these lab-scale studies show that all three tested solids are very effective in retaining REEs. Over 98% of the CMD REEs that contacted the solids were captured before the solids exhausted their neutralization capacities. We also determined an extraction process using a non-acid, organic ligand extraction solution that can effectively remobilize the retained REEs from the spent solids (over 90%). The REE concentrate (>7.5 wt. % of total REEs) is then formed in an aeration process. The TEP process uses environmentally benign industrial by-products and a naturally-occurring organic ligand to mitigate CMD and recover REEs. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) was carried out in the third phase. The engineering-economic costs and net energy, net CO2 emissions, and water and other requirements were investigated to understand the economic and environmental implications of this process. This work uses mass and energy balances from laboratory-scale experiments to estimate the economic costs and environmental impacts. The results suggest that passive treatment systems that use DRWP sludge are preferred over those that use sFGD material, because of lower economic costs ($89,300/yr with a unit cost of $86/gT-REE vs. $89,800/yr, or $278/gT-REE) and improved environmental performance across all indicators from two different impact assessment methods. These differences are largely attributable to the larger capacity of DRWP sludge in the passive treatment application. We envision this TEP process can be integrated with abandoned mine land (AML) reclamation to create an approach that can add economic incentives for AML reclamation, remediate CMD discharge, and eliminate public safety hazards and threats to local environment and ecological systems posed by AMLs. It can restore lands and communities that are adversely impacted by legacy mining.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Explained: Maintaining a Reliable Future Grid with More Wind and Solar

Since the early 2000s, maintaining grid reliability has become more complex due to a variety of factors, including the changing generation mix, the creation of wholesale energy markets, and a growing number of extreme weather events. Parts of the U.S. grid are already operating with significant amounts of wind and solar generation - with 2022 annual wind and solar generation in the range of 25% to 40%. Even without considering the effects of extreme weather, maintaining reliability will require new capacity to address both growth in electric demand and retiring capacity. Based on the 2022 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Long-Term Reliability Assessment, the combination of both growth in peak demand and retirements suggests a need for more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2032. In general, there are a five categories of resources that are expected to be deployed and used to meet the challenge of maintaining an adequate source of supply in the coming decades: new wind and solar resources (accounting for their reliability contributions), energy storage, demand response resources, expanded transmission, and continued use of thermal generators.

power grid↗

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

Evaluating Future US Hydropower Opportunities

Uncertainties, and a lack of confidence regarding issues, such as water availability/storage capacities and operational constraints, can be major obstacles in assessing the range of future opportunities for existing dams, which are certainly substantial. The authors discuss specific challenges facing current infrastructure and water resource data analysis that can inhibit large-scale evaluation of potential hydro development at existing dams. Recent advances in data and tools that may address these challenges are introduced.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Providing Levelized Cost and Waiting Time Inputs for HDV Hydrogen Refueling Station Planning: A Case Study of U.S. I-75 Corridor

Widespread use of diesel fuels in freight transportation leads to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that play an important role in air pollution. The air pollution, as well as the energy crisis, drives the transition from diesel fuel to cleaner and more energy-efficient fuels such as hydrogen fuels. With such a transition, the strategic planning and optimization of supporting refueling infrastructure along the national highway for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) become a necessity. Cost and service level are two essential factors to be considered in hydrogen refueling station location and capacity optimization. The service level in this study is assessed by the delay (waiting time) at fueling stations as well as the fueling demand fulfilled. To this end, this study presents a methodology to provide waiting time (delay) and levelized hydrogen fuel cost inputs under different station configurations (number of dispensers and fill rates) for hydrogen refueling station planning. Determining the station configurations based on the trade-off between the two inputs is further discussed. Particularly, this study points out that the levelized cost and waiting time are affected by hourly demand patterns and estimates the two inputs under different peak hour fueling demand scenarios. The results suggest that, with the same daily demand, the cost, as well as the waiting time, increases obviously with the peak hour demand. In the case study, the cost grows at least 30% when the peak hour visit frequency of the daily total visits increases from 5% (evenly distributed pattern) to 10% (the most common pattern for existing diesel fueling stations along I-75). Accounting for this peak hour effect in hydrogen refueling station planning is recommended. Overall, the waiting time model and cost analysis provide key inputs for optimizing hydrogen refueling station location and configurations based on anticipated refueling demand patterns. The paper is the second in a series that aims to build a comprehensive modeling plan and optimize hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the Interstate 75 (I-75) corridor for HDVs.

Liu, Yuandong↗

Thermophysical properties of the Ghareb formation relevant for nuclear waste disposal

The Ghareb formation, a shallowly buried porous chalk in Israel, is currently a candidate for nuclear waste disposal. The potential repository is somewhat unique for its host rock and emplacement in shallow (500 m) engineered large diameter boreholes. Herein, the thermal properties of the Ghareb are determined to support design and performance assessment; the relevant properties measured are thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity, thermal diffusivity, and thermal expansion coefficient along with their relationship with varying temperature. For the temperature range of 40 to 275 °C, the thermal conductivity ranges from 0.30 to 1.10 W/m·K, the thermal diffusivity ranges from 0.20 to 0.72 mm 2 /s, and volumetric heat capacity ranges from 0.86 to 2.00 MJ/m 3 ·K. Thermal strain measurements were used to estimate the linear thermal expansion coefficient to be 6·10 –4 –9·10 –2 °C -1 from 40 to 300 °C. These measured properties were used in a thermomechanical model to estimate near-field stresses an hour and 10 years after waste emplacement; the borehole was found to be stable. Thermal loading after 10 years was predicted to elevate local pore pressures by 1–1.5 MPa. The laboratory measurements coupled with analyses are the first attempts at performance assessment characterization for this first of its kind potential repository setting with this chosen host rock.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis

The First Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1) and Nationwide Industrial Heat and Power Analysis (aka the STEP 1 Project or the Project) aimed to (1) developed a brand-new web tool that could provide decision support through free, rapid techno-economic analysis of behind-the-meter solar+storage systems for industrial process heat and (2) conduct high-level analyses of the cost-competitiveness of the same systems across the US in key sectors. The STEP 1 web tool collects key location, land availability, thermal load profile, proccess heat temperature and media, and other key parameters through an easy-to-use user interface (UI). The UI was designed to meet the user at their level of understanding by minimizing the number of required inputs as much as possible while including options for more nuanced inputs if the user desires. STEP 1 advises users on which solar thermal tehcnologies that could fit their needs based on the inputs provided (namely process media and temperature). The tool can model a wide range of solar thermal technologies including flat plate collectors, evacuated tubes, parabolic troughs, linear Fresnel, and molten salt towers all with corresponding thermal energy storage (TES) - solar PV with resistive heating and TES is also included. Once the parameters are collected, a nominal thermal energy production profile for the facility's location is generated using NREL's System Advisory Model (SAM) and then passed to a modified version of NREL's REopt platform to optimize the size (capacity) and dispatch of the solar+storage system to minimize lifecycle costs subject to energy balance, fuel and electricity rates, emission reductions goals, and other constraints. This entire process takes less than 20 minutes, is completely free, requires zero coding skills, and provides the user with a high-level assessment on the techno-economic feasability of deploying solar+storage systems for their energy needs. In addition to the development of the STEP 1 web tool, the project completed two complementary analyses focused on leveraging the backend code of STEP 1, public industrial facility locations and fuel consumption data, and key sector information to assess the economic opportunity of reducing fuel costs at various levels of capacity factor around the US. Both analyses found that there are key markets, locations, industrial sectors (namely food and beverage), and degrees of offset where solar thermal technologies could be cost-effectively deployed, highlighting a key market entry point for these technologies, and assessing deployment potential. In summary, the STEP 1 project improved the opportunities for solar+storage systems to expand into the industrial process heat market through breaking down barriers to assessing these technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Miscanthus × giganteus increases soil maximum water holding capacity compared to maize

Soil ecosystem services, like the ability to store water, have been depleted after a century of conventional, annual cropping, and perennial crops offer a solution to this and other agricultural environmental issues. We assessed the impact of Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus), a perennial biomass crop, on soil water holding capacity and structure compared to continuous maize (Zea mays L.) at two sites in Iowa. After three growing seasons, we measured the following: (1) maximum water holding capacity (MWHC) with and without soil structure, and (2) total porosity and pore size distribution (PSD) via micro-computed tomography (microCT). Miscanthus increased MWHC by 14.7% across both sites relative to maize (p = 0.002), and we attributed this to structural changes due to the lack of a crop effect when measured on structureless soils. No significant changes were detected in soil organic matter, texture, total porosity, or PSD that could explain the increase in MWHC under miscanthus. Our findings suggest that the increases in MWHC are primarily due to structural changes rather than increases in soil organic matter or porosity (at least porosity detectable by microCT). This study highlights miscanthus' potential to enhance soil water storage and underscores the need for further investigation to clarify the mechanisms through which this biomass crop influences soil structural properties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Design of closed-loop recycling production of a Diels–Alder polymer from a biomass-derived difuran as a functional additive for polyurethanes

Acetalization of biomass-derived 5-hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) with pentaerythritol produced a difuran (HPH) monomer in the presence of an acid catalyst. A recyclable polymer was then synthesized by Diels–Alder reaction of bismaleimide and the HMF-derived difuran (HPH). A polyurethane, produced from the Diels–Alder polymer has a higher glass transition temperature than a polyurethane, produced from ethylene glycol. The polyurethane, containing Diels–Alder polymer also has a self-healing ability. The Diels–Alder polymer could be hydrolyzed in acidic acetate buffer at 60 °C to produce the monomers for recycling. Each produced monomer was separated by solvent extraction, and the extracted monomers were recovered in different solvent fractions, such as aqueous, ethyl acetate, and acetone fractions. Techno economic analysis was used to assess the minimum selling price ($\$14.1$ per kg) for the primary production of Diels–Alder polymer at a feed capacity of 400 tons per year. The economic viability of the primary recovery process for the most expensive recovered monomer, bismaleimide, was assessed by calculating the minimum selling price of the bismaleimide ($\$15.2$ per kg). In conclusion, a circular closed-loop recycling production process for the Diels–Alder polymer was developed and this approach can produce the Diels–Alder polymer at $8.2 per kg when the feed capacity was 40 ktons per year.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Severe declines in hydraulic capacity and associated carbon starvation drive mortality in seawater exposed Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees

Abstract Sea-level rise is causing widespread tree mortality of coastal forests, with large consequences on the Earth system as a result of these forests’ importance in carbon and nutrient export. The mechanisms of mortality under these conditions are, however, poorly tested. We used wood anatomy traits, wood δ 13 C, and tree radial growth to retrospectively assess the physiological process of seawater effects on whole tree xylem hydraulic capacity, gas exchange, and radial growth. During the latter stages of mortality (2018–2019), we directly measured metrics of water use and carbon metabolism across trees having crowns ranging from fully foliated to completely defoliated to investigate mortality processes at the sub-annual scale. Upon seawater exposure, soil salinity increased and allocation to hydraulic function declined, resulting in a dramatic reduction in water supply to the crown, increased crown-level water stress, and subsequent crown foliage loss. Simultaneously, leaf-level photosynthetic capacity declined steeply with increasing salinity. The combined loss of crown foliage area and photosynthetic rates per unit leaf area promoted carbon starvation, while no evidence of hydraulic failure was observed. These results elucidate mechanisms of coastal forest death under seawater exposure, enabling more accurate modeling in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Uncertainties in Heat Capacity Measurements of Molten Salts Determined Using Differential Scanning Calorimetry

Uncertainty in specific heat capacity values of a molten salt determined by using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was assessed based on the precision of replicate measurements of heat flows used in the calculation and effects of corrections that are commonly made to heat flow measurements. The ratio method of determining heat capacity was applied using the results of replicate heat flow measurements made with two empty cells, a sapphire reference material, and three samples of a doped NaCl-UCl 3 salt mixture. Replicate measurements with empty cells were used to quantify the effects of system instabilities and sensitivities on the measured heat flows of sapphire and salt. The combined effects of uncertainties in individual heat flow measurements made with blank cells using this system were quantified to be 2.6 μV based on isothermal holds before and after the scan, with cell placement adding the greatest uncertainty. This value was used as the tolerance for accepting background-corrected heat flows measured with sapphire and salt to calculate the specific heat capacity. The acceptable heat flows measured for sapphire and salt over the temperature range of 540 to 725 °C resulted in calculated specific heat capacity values ranging from 0.53 to 0.91 J g −1 K −1 with an overall average value of 0.70 J g −1 K −1 and an uncertainty of 0.22 J g −1 K −1 at the 99 % confidence level. The combined uncertainty in the specific heat capacity masked detection of any effect of temperature or salt composition that occurred.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

U.S. and Allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific (Workshop Summary)

On March 30, 31, and April 1, 2021, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled "U.S. and allied Cyber Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific". This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and private sector in the United States and among allied countries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. The workshop evaluated threat perceptions, assessed cyber power in a regional context, and explored opportunities for building capacity and trust with allies, partners, and the private sector. The region's cyber threat landscape is marked by increasing malicious activity, with threats persistent and ever-growing. Grounded by this strategic reality, the workshop advocated for 1) a concerted push into the arena of norm setting from the bottom up, 2) an agreed metric by which to assess progress, and 3) the creation of future lines of collaborative effort for the United States and its allies to ensure an open, interoperable, and secure internet.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A newly proposed isotherm model to predict Cs exchange with crystalline silicotitanate in tank waste simulants

The Zheng Anthony Miller (ZAM) computer model, a multicomponent ion exchange model used to predict the exchange of Group I metals onto crystalline silicotitanate (CST), has historically been used to predict Cs distribution coefficients from Hanford and Savannah River Site (SRS) tank waste simulants. Comparison of experimentally determined Cs distribution coefficients from tank waste simulants with ZAM isotherm model predictions indicate overprediction of Cs and K distribution coefficients for simple and complex simulants with the engineered form of CST. Additionally, recent changes in chemical composition/manufacturing of IONSIV TM R9140-B have resulted in increased Cs capacity from high-salt, highly alkaline solutions. Here, this work served to assess different isotherm models and refine equilibrium parameters to develop a model that can be applied to Hanford and SRS tank waste Cs removal efforts. Toward this goal, the Campbell Westesen Peterson (CWP) model was developed. This model utilized the experimentally determined Cs capacity, and simplified ZAM equilibria expressions to include only the binary substitution of Cs + or K + on the Na + sites. Equilibrium constants for these equations were refined using experimentally determined distribution coefficients. Overall, the CWP model significantly improved our ability to predict both Cs and K loading capacity from complex matrices.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An integrated metagenomic, metabolomic and transcriptomic survey of Populus across genotypes and environments

Abstract Bridging molecular information to ecosystem-level processes would provide the capacity to understand system vulnerability and, potentially, a means for assessing ecosystem health. Here, we present an integrated dataset containing environmental and metagenomic information from plant-associated microbial communities, plant transcriptomics, plant and soil metabolomics, and soil chemistry and activity characterization measurements derived from the model tree species Populus trichocarpa . Soil, rhizosphere, root endosphere, and leaf samples were collected from 27 different P. trichocarpa genotypes grown in two different environments leading to an integrated dataset of 318 metagenomes, 98 plant transcriptomes, and 314 metabolomic profiles that are supported by diverse soil measurements. This expansive dataset will provide insights into causal linkages that relate genomic features and molecular level events to system-level properties and their environmental influences.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Techno-Economic Impact of Partial String Failure in Multi-string Energy Storage Systems

Electric utilities and large industrial/commercial customers, which integrate multi-MW multi-string energy storage systems (ESS), are typically at a significant risk of string failure. This results in the loss of system performance and capacity. In order to evaluate the accurate costs and benefits associated with a particular battery system, it is essential to incorporate the costs associated with battery string failure and, as a result, reduced capacity. This report analyzes how the economic losses can be estimated based on market rules and ESS availability. A framework for calculation of economic losses is developed and implemented with an illustrative string failure case for Independent System Operator (ISO-NE) forward capacity market. Further scenarios and case studies are analyzed by varying the probability of string failure as well as the capacity bid into the market. These scenarios are used to assess the variability of economic losses and the impact of string failure on the final realized benefits from the battery's market participation.

Fotedar, Vanshika↗

C4.jl [SWR-25-106]

A proof-of-concept software framework for integrating capacity expansion and production cost optimization with probabilistic resource adequacy assessment and sending feedback signals between the models.

Stephen, Gordon [National Renewable Energy Laborat↗