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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Cost estimates of production scale semitransparent organic photovoltaic modules for building integrated photovoltaics

Building integrated photovoltaics (BIPVs) are attached to commercial and residential structures to enable solar energy harvesting. While conventional Si photovoltaics (PVs) are dominant in the current market, second and third generation thin film solar cells based on amorphous Si, CdTe, CIGS, perovskites or organic photovoltaics (OPVs) are often considered as an alternative for BIPV applications since they may offer reduced costs compared to Si PVs. Indeed, recent advances in performance suggest that lightweight, flexible and visibly transparent OPVs can potentially be integrated into windows or other applications to which Si PVs are less well suited. Here, we estimate the cost of high efficiency, semitransparent OPVs (ST-OPVs) based on solution processing in a roll-to-roll (R2R) manufacturing line. Assuming modules with 10% power conversion efficiency (PCE), a 70% geometric fill factor (GFF), and 95% inverter efficiency, we anticipate a %1.6 per Wp module manufacturing cost that includes the cost of the microinverter to condition the OPV dc output to be compatible with the ac line voltage of the building. The materials and inverter cost comprise ~90% of the total module cost. Hence, with simplified material synthesis and a lower inverter cost, including marginally improved PCE and GFF, we expect the cost can be as low as $0.47 per Wp. Here, while the module costs ~60% of the average (uninstalled) double-pane window, we expect the payback period can be as short as 2 to 6 years, suggesting that OPVs can be an economic and attractive candidate for BIPV applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1972

Study of solid rocket motors for a space shuttle booster. Volume 2, book 3, addendum 1: Cost estimating data

A second iteration of the program baseline configuration and cost for the solid propellant rocket engines used with the space shuttle booster system is presented. The purpose of the study was to ensure that total program costs were complete and to review areas where costs might be overly conservative and could be reduced. Labor and material were analyzed in more depth, more definition was prepared to separate recurring from nonrecurring costs, and the operations portions of the engine and stage were separated into more identifiable activities.

Vonderesch, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Estimating the costs of human space exploration

The plan for NASA's new exploration initiative has the following strategic themes: (1) incremental, logical evolutionary development; (2) economic viability; and (3) excellence in management. The cost estimation process is involved with all of these themes and they are completely dependent upon the engineering cost estimator for success. The purpose is to articulate the issues associated with beginning this major new government initiative, to show how NASA intends to resolve them, and finally to demonstrate the vital importance of a leadership role by the cost estimation community.

Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

Spadoni, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Ramjet cost estimating handbook

The subject program was conducted for the purpose of generating cost information on ramjet engines and developing a methodology that could be employed to accurately predict production costs ramjet engines. The methodology addresses many different ramjet types, sizes and production quantities. The methodology determines the cost of individual modules of ramjet assemblies based on similarity of the modules to baseline components that are identified in a cost handbook. (There are typically around 20 basic components of a given ramjet to be costed.) The total cost of the engine is a summation of all the appropriate cost elements. A significant accomplishment of the program was the development of a large cost data base on many different configurations, materials of construction and variations in manufacturing processes. This data base should provide a good foundation on which to build other cost data as it becomes available.

Emmons, H. T.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cost estimates for flat plate and concentrator collector arrays

The current module and installation costs for the U.S. National Photovoltaic Program's grid-connected systems are significantly higher than required for economic viability of this alternative. Attention is accordingly given to the prospects for installed module cost reductions in flat plate, linear focus Fresnel concentrator, and point focus Fresnel concentrator candidate systems. Cost projections indicate that all three systems would meet near-term and midterm goals, provided that module costs of $2.80/W(p) and $0.70/W(p), respectively, are met. The point focus Fresnel system emerges as the most viable for the near term.

Shimada, K.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimating the cost of major ongoing cost plus hardware development programs

Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

Bush, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quality-agnostic combinatoric cost estimation model for large-format directed energy deposition metal additive manufacturing

Directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM) processes are amenable to synergistic combination into multi-process AM systems due to similar requirements for automation and energy sources. This work analyzes the economic performance of such DED AM systems from a quality-agnostic combinatoric standpoint with a model that calculates lowest-cost system combinations based on part geometry and process performance metrics. Common DED AM systems research focuses on a single process and does not consider the process, system, and application in the context of all possible system combinations (e.g., the combined set of process selection(s), motion system(s), and process hardware), leading to limited applicability of the resulting DED AM systems to cost-sensitive components such as those found in energy generation applications. The model developed herein incorporates the capital, material, and energy costs associated with DED AM system combinations into a predictive tool for estimating part and system cost, the output of which is intended to guide deployment of finite research and development resources towards DED AM system combinations with the lowest costs and greatest likelihood of economic impact. The DED AM systems identified by this framework may enable domestic production of the large conventionally cast and forged components necessary for energy generation.

Shanafield, Alexandra [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shared mooring system designs and cost estimates for wave energy arrays

For floating renewable energy devices to become more cost-efficient and commercially scalable, their mooring system designs must be low-cost and suited for large-scale installations. Large arrays of floating devices, such as wave energy converters (WECs), will likely be designed with an individual mooring system for each device in the array. However, new mooring technology advancements provide options to use shared mooring lines to connect adjacent devices to one another, reducing the total number of anchors in the array, thereby reducing material use and cost. Here, this paper explores the design, modeling, and cost analysis of shared mooring systems for various sizes of arrays consisting of heaving oscillating water column (OWC) WECs. Shared mooring systems for WEC arrays sized in 2 x N and N x N grid layouts are designed to meet the relevant design standards, checking their performance with a nonlinear time-domain dynamic simulation, and the costs of each are calculated and compared. Several assumptions are taken in the design process to produce efficient results, providing a preliminary optimization for guidance on design decisions rather than a full, detailed design analysis. Mooring system costs per WEC were found to decrease as the number of WECs in the array increase, up to certain array sizes. The 2 x 3 array had the lowest mooring system cost per WEC out of all arrays considered, with a 60% cost reduction relative to using individual mooring systems. The 3 x 3 and 4 x 4 arrays achieved a 50% cost per WEC reduction. In addition to these significant cost reductions, the shared mooring system designs can provide advantages through smaller mooring system footprints, lower installation times, and less seabed disturbance.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Cost Estimation Methodology for NETL Techno-economic Assessments

This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies (QGESS) summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity (COE) or cost of product (COP) metrics by which NETL estimates the impact of technology options. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines were initially developed for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen) by substituting the industrial product quantity for the electrical quantity in the equations. The tables contained in this QGESS have been expanded upon relative to previous versions to include values to assume for several industries.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Calibrating Constant Elasticity of Substitution Technologies to Bottom-up Cost Estimates

We propose a method for calibrating an industry-level technology to engineering (bottom-up) estimates with a particular focus on abatement opportunities. As a demonstration, substitution elasticities across inputs are adjusted in the nested cost function for the electricity sector to best fit a target marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve derived from engineering assessments of available technologies. Elasticities are optimized over an entire relevant range of the MAC, whereas current techniques use local point estimates under little or no abatement. In the context of fitting to a given MAC we evaluate alternative nesting structures and find that, while complexity in nesting improves the fit, even relatively simple nesting structures can reasonably approximate the target MAC. In our example, focused on the electricity sector, we find standard elasticities adopted in top-down models moderately overstate abatement costs relative to the engineering targets. In our preferred specification the most important adjustment is to escalate the substitution elasticity between energy and value-added inputs. This is consistent with an argument that the current set of point estimates fail to properly account for new capital-based technologies. These conclusions, however, are sensitive to our assumption about output-intensity abatement and consumer price responsiveness, both of which are not delineated in engineering estimates.

abatement cost↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mooring System Cost Estimates for Wave Energy Farms in Shared Mooring Arrays

As wave energy converters (WECs) become more advanced and cost-efficient, so too must their mooring systems. A key question in the development plans for WECs is the cost of the mooring system, particularly for large wave farms. WEC devices deployed in a WEC farm array, where each device can be connected by shared mooring lines in various array layouts, have potential to reduce mooring system costs significantly. This paper presents the modeling and designing of mooring systems for large WEC arrays and the calculation of the cost of each mooring system to determine the change in cost as the number of WECs in a farm increases. A baseline mooring system for a single floating oscillating water column (OWC) WEC was developed for this analysis. The mooring system utilizes four anchored mooring lines connected to a square assembly of wire rope mooring lines, supported by four floating buoys, and attached to the floating WEC by four polyester rope mooring lines. This assembly, referred to as a floating cell, can be tiled to form various rectangular WEC arrays. The objective of this analysis is to determine how the mooring system cost changes as more WECs are added to an array layout, each with their own interconnected floating cell. To do this, complete mooring systems need to be designed for each WEC array layout. To narrow down the design space of a WEC array mooring system, a couple assumptions were made. It was assumed that the floating cell parameters of the baseline design were to stay constant across all floating cells in the WEC array. It was also assumed that the anchored mooring lines would be of the baseline configuration, a predominantly chain mooring line with a short section of polyester rope near the fairlead, and a drag-embedment anchor. These anchored lines were assumed to extend from the outer edges of the WEC array, inline with the headings of the wire rope mooring lines of the floating cells, or diagonal if extending from a corner of the WEC array. Full mooring systems were designed for 2xN and NxN WEC array layouts and efficiently simulated in the mooring dynamics simulation tool, MoorDyn, to ensure all dynamic constraints were met. The system costs were calculated and then refined by shortening unnecessary chain line lengths and reducing the chain diameters of the downstream anchored mooring lines. It was found that, in general, mooring system costs per WEC decrease when WECs are installed in an array. Compared to the baseline mooring system for a single WEC, the 2x3 mooring system array had the lowest mooring system cost per WEC, reducing the cost per WEC by 59%. The 3x3 and 4x4 array mooring systems also saw significant reductions in cost per WEC but had negligible cost savings between the two designs, primarily because the larger 4x4 mooring system requires larger chain diameters, which increases cost. These results provide an interesting glimpse into modeling, designing, and calculating the cost of mooring systems for large WEC arrays.

cost↗
NASA NTRS2010

Cost Estimate for Molybdenum and Tantalum Refractory Metal Alloy Flow Circuit Concepts

The Early Flight Fission-Test Facilities (EFF-TF) team at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been tasked by the Naval Reactors Prime Contract Team (NRPCT) to provide a cost and delivery rough order of magnitude estimate for a refractory metal-based lithium (Li) flow circuit. The design is based on the stainless steel Li flow circuit that is currently being assembled for an NRPCT task underway at the EFF-TF. While geometrically the flow circuit is not representative of a final flight prototype, knowledge has been gained to quantify (time and cost) the materials, manufacturing, fabrication, assembly, and operations to produce a testable configuration. This Technical Memorandum (TM) also identifies the following key issues that need to be addressed by the fabrication process: Alloy selection and forming, cost and availability, welding, bending, machining, assembly, and instrumentation. Several candidate materials were identified by NRPCT including molybdenum (Mo) alloy (Mo-47.5 %Re), tantalum (Ta) alloys (T-111, ASTAR-811C), and niobium (Nb) alloy (Nb-1 %Zr). This TM is focused only on the Mo and Ta alloys, since they are of higher concern to the ongoing effort. The initial estimate to complete a Mo-47%Re system ready for testing is =$9,000k over a period of 30 mo. The initial estimate to complete a T-111 or ASTAR-811C system ready for testing is =$12,000k over a period of 36 mo.

Hickman, Robert R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Availability and cost estimate of a high naphthene, modified aviation turbine fuel

Information from an Air Force study was used to determine the potential availability and cost of a modified conventional fuel with a naphthene content which could have a thermal stability near that of JP-7 for high-speed civil transports. Results showed sufficient capacity for a fuel made of a blend of 50 percent naphthenic straight run kerosene and 50 percent hydrocracked product, assuming a near-term requirement of 210,000 BBL per day. Fuel cost would be as low as 62.5 to 64.5 cents per gallon, assuming 20 dollars per barrel for crude.

Prok, George M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Hydrogen from coal cost estimation guidebook

In an effort to establish baseline information whereby specific projects can be evaluated, a current set of parameters which are typical of coal gasification applications was developed. Using these parameters a computer model allows researchers to interrelate cost components in a sensitivity analysis. The results make possible an approximate estimation of hydrogen energy economics from coal, under a variety of circumstances.

Billings, R. E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quality Guidelines for Energy Systems Studies: Cost Estimation Methodology for NETL Assessments of Power Plant Performance

This paper summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating power plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity by which NETL evaluates electric power plants. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different power plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines are tailored for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen).

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗