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At least 181 records · Page 10

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗

Assessing potential induced radioactivity in materials processed with X-ray energy above 5 MeV: Assessment protocols and practical experience

In accordance with ISO11137-1 section 5.1.2, ‘the potential for induced radioactivity in product shall be assessed’. This article describes how compliance to this requirement may be achieved using qualified test methods. Materials of consideration are conceptually discussed. Results of testing conducted on products processed with a 7.5 MeV X-ray irradiation process are provided. As X-ray becomes more widely used in healthcare sterilization, having standard assessment protocols for activation coupled with a shared database of material test results will benefit all healthcare product manufacturers seeking to avail of this innovative technology.

Kroc, Thomas K.↗

Techno-economic assessment and life cycle assessment of three potential pathways for biomass liquefaction

Biomass liquefaction can enhance corn-stover slurry transportation by reducing yield stress and overall viscosity, easing biomass handling, especially for slurries at high solids loading (≥30 % (w/v). Implementing a liquefaction process at the front-end of the biorefinery could reduce downtime caused by equipment fouling. Furthermore, liquefaction reduces process complexity by transforming high fiber mass into a pumpable slurry. Three scenarios for liquefaction of corn stover pellets: enzyme process, enzyme mimetic process, and a combined process of enzyme and enzyme mimetic were assessed. The ideal process will have the best performance-to-cost ratio, with minimal impact on the environment. Techno-economic and life-cycle analyses were used to understand the economic and environmental effects of the three liquefaction scenarios and to determine if one or more can achieve cost parity. Here, results show that the enzyme process had the best performance in terms of cost and emissions (gCO 2 -equivalent/kg slurry)compared to the other scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A comparison of methods for assessing power output in non-uniform onshore wind farms

Wind resource assessments are used to estimate a wind farm's power production during the planning process. It is important that these estimates are accurate, as they can impact financing agreements, transmission planning, and environmental targets. Here, we analyze the challenges in wind power estimation for onshore farms. Turbine wake effects are a strong determinant of farm power production. With given input wind conditions, wake losses typically cause downstream turbines to produce significantly less power than upstream turbines. These losses have been modeled extensively and are well understood under certain conditions. Most notably, validation of different model types has favored offshore farms. Models that capture the dynamics of offshore wind conditions do not necessarily perform equally as well for onshore wind farms. We analyze the capabilities of several different methods for estimating wind farm power production in 2 onshore farms with non-uniform layouts. We compare the Jensen model to a number of statistical models, to meteorological downscaling techniques, and to using no model at all. In conclusion, we show that the complexities of some onshore farms result in wind conditions that are not accurately modeled by the Jensen wake decay techniques and that statistical methods have some strong advantages in practice.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Machine Learning Reduced Order Model for Cost and Emission Assessment of a Pyrolysis System

Biomass pyrolysis is a promising approach for producing economic and environmentally-friendly fuels and bioproducts. Biomass pyrolysis experiments show that feedstock properties have a significant impact on product yields and composition. Scientists are developing detailed chemical reaction mechanisms to capture the relationships between biomass composition and pyrolysis yields. These mechanisms can be computationally intensive. In this study, we investigate the use of a machine learning reduced order model (ROM) for assessing the costs and emissions of a pyrolysis biorefinery. Here, we developed a Kriging-based ROM to predict pyrolysis yields of 314 feedstock samples based on the results of a detailed chemical kinetic pyrolysis mechanism. The ROM is integrated into a chemical process model for calculating mass and energy yields in a commercial-scale (2000 tonne/day) biorefinery. The ROM estimated biofuel yields of 65 to 130 gallons per ton of dry biomass. This results in biofuel minimum fuel-selling prices of $2.62 to $5.43 per gallon and emissions of -13.62 to 145 kg of CO 2 per MJ. The ROM achieved an average mean square error of 1.8e-20 and a mean absolute error of 0.53%. These results suggest that ROMs can facilitate rapid feedstock screening for biorefinery systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An economic assessment of behind-the-meter photovoltaics paired with batteries on the Hawaiian Islands.

Due to natural variability and uncertainty, the ever-increasing penetration of solar generation in Hawaii presents challenges to power grid operators to maintain reliable system operation. Demand response (DR) has the potential to be a cost-effective tool for Hawaii to reach its aggressive renewable energy goals while maintaining the reliability of power grids. The Hawaii Public Utilities Commission has approved the Hawaiian Electric Company's revised portfolio of DR programs. The companies have released a grid services purchase agreement and subscribed an initial tranche of load into their DR programs. This paper presents innovative analytical methods and comprehensive economic assessment for distributed photovoltaics (PV) paired with battery energy storage systems (BESSs) for two new DR programs, including fast frequency response and capacity grid service. Optimal dispatch and sizing methods are proposed for the paired system considering different tariff schedules and PV compensation programs across five islands. It was found that while the best resource configuration and potential economic benefits vary with tariff structure, a BESS paired with PV can be optimally dispatched to generate multiple value streams simultaneously. Compensation from DR programs is an important value stream to help increase the cost-effectiveness of the integrated system.

Battery energy storage system↗

Assessment of a tomography-informed polyhedral discrete element modelling approach for complex-shaped granular woody biomass in stress consolidation

The design of handling equipment for granular biomass primarily requires experiments. Discrete element models (DEM) can provide designers with detailed insight into the behaviour of granular materials. However, granular biomass comprising complex-shaped particles is difficult to model with DEM. A tomography-informed DEM approach and an exhaustive assessment of the ability of the approach to predict the bulk behaviour of milled pines using experimental data is presented. Nano-CT scan was conducted to obtain 3D particle surface geometries as the basis for particle shape approximation by a polyhedral model and a sphero-polyhedral model. These models were applied in the simulation of a compressibility test. Our parametric study showed that particle Young's modulus and restitution coefficient are the two main properties influencing the simulated bulk behaviour of the DEM particles and that the level of approximating DEM particle shape for real particles is critical for accurately replicating the bulk behaviour of milled pines. The polyhedral model demonstrated better suitability than its sphero-polyhedral counterpart for modelling pine particles. The polyhedral model calibrated in a compressibility test was then applied in the simulations of a friction test without additional parameter tuning. Interlocking was dominant in the shear of bulk pine particles. Remarkably, the polyhedral model predicted the frictional behaviour of the pine particles when compared to the experimental results. The limitations of the model, as well as possible ways for enhancement, are discussed. This work provided novel insights into the suitability of complex-shaped DEM models for granular woody biomass.

Biomass flow↗

Walking the sustainability assessment talk - Progressing the practice of environmental impact assessment (EIA)

Internationally there is a growing demand for environmental impact assessment (EIA) to move away from its traditional focus towards delivering more sustainable outcomes. South Africa is an example of a country where the EIA system seems to have embraced the concept of sustainability. In this paper we test the existing objectives for EIA in South Africa against sustainability principles and then critique the effectiveness of EIA practice in delivering these objectives. The outcome of the research suggests that notwithstanding a strong and explicit sustainability mandate through policy and legislation, the effectiveness of EIA practice falls far short of what is mandated. This shows that further legislative reform is not required to improve effectiveness but rather a focus on changing the behaviour of individual professionals. We conclude by inviting further debate on what exactly practitioners can do to give effect to sustainability in EIA practice.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗