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Results for “Analytical sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10

Voltage-Based Strategies for Preventing Battery Degradation under Diverse Fast-Charging Conditions

Maintaining safe operating conditions is a key challenge for high-performance lithium-ion battery applications. The lithium-plating reaction remains a risk during charging, but limited studies consider the highly variable charging conditions possible in commercial cells. Here we combine pseudo-2D electrochemical modeling with data visualization methods to reveal important relationships between the measurable cell voltage and difficult-to-predict Li-plating onset criteria. An extensively validated model is used to compute Li plating for thousands of multistep charging conditions spanning diverse rates, temperatures, states-of-charge, and cell aging. Here we observe an empirical cell operating voltage limit below which plating does not occur across all conditions, and this limit varies with the battery state-of-charge and aging. A model sensitivity analysis also indicates that, when comparing two charging voltage profiles, the capacity difference at 4.0 V correlates well with the difference in the plating onset capacity. These results encourage simple strategies for Li-plating prevention that are complementary to existing battery controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Numerical Investigation of Fuel Property Effects on Mixed-Mode Combustion in a Spark-Ignition Engine

In this research, lean mixed-mode combustion is numerically investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in a spark-ignition engine. A new E30 fuel surrogate is developed using a neural network model with matched octane numbers. A skeletal mechanism is also developed by automated mechanism reduction and by incorporating a NO x submechanism. A hybrid approach that couples the G-equation model and the well-stirred reactor model is employed for turbulent combustion modeling. The developed CFD model is shown to well predict pressure and apparent heat release rate (AHRR) traces compared with experiment. Two types of combustion cycles (deflagration-only and mixed-mode cycles) are observed. The mixed-mode cycles feature early flame propagation and subsequent end-gas auto-ignition, leading to two distinctive AHRR peaks. The validated CFD model is then employed to investigate the effects of NO x chemistry. The NO x chemistry is found to promote auto-ignition through the residual gas, while the deflagration phase remains largely unaffected. Sensitivity analysis is finally performed to understand effects of fuel properties, including heat of vaporization (HoV) and laminar flame speed (S L ). An increased HoV tends to suppress auto-ignition through charge cooling, while the impact of HoV on flame propagation is insignificant. In contrast, an increased S L is found to significantly promote both flame propagation and end-gas auto-ignition. The promoting effect of S L on auto-ignition is not a direct chemical effect; it is rather caused by an advancement of the combustion phasing, which increases compression heating of the end-gas.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The scalar chemical potential in cosmological collider physics

Non-analyticity in co-moving momenta within the non-Gaussian bispectrum is a distinctive sign of on-shell particle production during inflation, presenting a unique opportunity for the “direct detection” of particles with masses as large as the inflationary Hubble scale ( H ). However, the strength of such non-analyticity ordinarily drops exponentially by a Boltzmann-like factor as masses exceed H . In this paper, we study an exception provided by a dimension-5 derivative coupling of the inflaton to heavy-particle currents, applying it specifically to the case of two real scalars. The operator has a “chemical potential” form, which harnesses the large kinetic energy scale of the inflaton, \( {\overset{\cdot }{\phi}}_0^{1/2}\approx 60H \) , to act as an efficient source of scalar particle production. Derivative couplings of inflaton ensure radiative stability of the slow-roll potential, which in turn maintains (approximate) scale-invariance of the inflationary correlations. We show that a signal not suffering Boltzmann suppression can be obtained in the bispectrum with strength f NL ~ \( \mathcal{O} \) (0 . 01–10) for an extended range of scalar masses \( \lesssim {\overset{\cdot }{\phi}}_0^{1/2} \) , potentially as high as 10 15 GeV, within the sensitivity of upcoming LSS and more futuristic 21-cm experiments. The mechanism does not invoke any particular fine-tuning of parameters or breakdown of perturbation-theoretic control. The leading contribution appears at tree-level , which makes the calculation analytically tractable and removes the loop-suppression as compared to earlier chemical potential studies of non-zero spins. The steady particle production allows us to infer the effective mass of the heavy particles and the chemical potential from the variation in bispectrum oscillations as a function of co-moving momenta. Our analysis sets the stage for generalization to heavy bosons with non-zero spin.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Understanding cloud droplet spectral dispersion effect using empirical and semi-analytical parameterizations in NCAR CAM5.3

Five parameterizations of cloud droplet spectral shape are implemented in a global climate model to investigate the dispersion effect and aerosol indirect effect (AIE). We design a series of experiments by modifying the microphysical cloud scheme of NCAR CAM5.3 (Community Atmospheric Model Version 5.3). We employ four empirical (Martin94, RLiu03, PengL03, Liu08) and one semi-analytical (LiuLi15) expressions for cloud droplet spectral shape parameters. Analysis focuses on the instantaneous differences in the simulated cloud microphysical properties and the comparison between model output and satellite data. The results show that RLiu03, PengL03 and LiuLi15 produce wider droplet spectrum and faster autoconversion rate, but Liu08 has a narrower droplet spectrum and slower autoconversion rate than the default parameterization (Martin94) in CAM5.3. Global dispersion effects caused by the five parameterizations modify the aerosol indirect effect by -10% (counteract) to 13% (strengthen). The simulated AIEs and dispersion effects exhibit noticeably spatial inhomogeneity. In the sensitive regions of AIE (Southeast Asia, North Pacific and west coast of South America), we decompose the response of shortwave cloud forcing to the change in droplet number for analysis. The varying dispersion effects can be explained by different responses of cloud properties in different spectral parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems

Causal discovery algorithms construct hypothesized causal graphs that depict causal dependencies among variables in observational data. While powerful, the accuracy of these algorithms is highly sensitive to the underlying dynamics of the system in ways that have not been fully characterized in the literature. In this report, we benchmark the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm in its application to gridded spatiotemporal systems. Effectively computing grid-level causal graphs on large grids will enable analysis of the causal impacts of transient and mobile spatial phenomena in large systems, such as the Earth’s climate. We evaluate the performance of PCMCI with a set of structural causal models, using simulated spatial vector autoregressive processes in one- and two-dimensions. We develop computational and analytical tools for characterizing these processes and their associated causal graphs. Our findings suggest that direct application of PCMCI is not suitable for the analysis of dynamical spatiotemporal gridded systems, such as climatological data, without significant preprocessing and downscaling of the data. PCMCI requires unrealistic sample sizes to achieve acceptable performance on even modestly sized problems and suffers from a notable curse of dimensionality. This work suggests that, even under generous structural assumptions, significant additional algorithmic improvements are needed before causal discovery algorithms can be reliably applied to grid-level outputs of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A coupled ground heat flux–surface energy balance model of evaporation using thermal remote sensing observations

Abstract. One of the major undetermined problems in evaporation (ET) retrieval using thermal infrared remote sensing is the lack of a physically based ground heat flux (G) model and its integration within the surface energy balance (SEB) equation. Here, we present a novel approach based on coupling a thermal inertia (TI)-based mechanistic G model with an analytical surface energy balance model, Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC, version STIC1.2). The coupled model is named STIC-TI. The model is driven by noon–night (13:30 and 01:30 local time) land surface temperature, surface albedo, and a vegetation index from MODIS Aqua in conjunction with a clear-sky net radiation sub-model and ancillary meteorological information. SEB flux estimates from STIC-TI were evaluated with respect to the in situ fluxes from eddy covariance measurements in diverse ecosystems of contrasting aridity in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Sensitivity analysis revealed substantial sensitivity of STIC-TI-derived fluxes due to the land surface temperature uncertainty. An evaluation of noontime G (Gi) estimates showed 12 %–21 % error across six flux tower sites, and a comparison between STIC-TI versus empirical G models also revealed the substantially better performance of the former. While the instantaneous noontime net radiation (RNi) and latent heat flux (LEi) were overestimated (15 % and 25 %), sensible heat flux (Hi) was underestimated (22 %). Overestimation (underestimation) of LEi (Hi) was associated with the overestimation of net available energy (RNi−Gi) and use of unclosed surface energy balance flux measurements in LEi (Hi) validation. The mean percent deviations in Gi and Hi estimates were found to be strongly correlated with satellite day–night view angle difference in parabolic and linear pattern, and a relatively weak correlation was found between day–night view angle difference versus LEi deviation. Findings from this parameter-sparse coupled G–ET model can make a valuable contribution to mapping and monitoring the spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem water stress and evaporation using noon–night thermal infrared observations from future Earth observation satellite missions such as TRISHNA, LSTM, and SBG.

Bhattacharya, Bimal K.↗

Ligand-Induced Size-Dependent Circular Dichroism in Quantum Dots

Recent experiments have probed the chiral properties of semiconductor nanocrystal (NC) quantum dots (QDs), but understanding the circular dichroism line shape, excitonic features, and chirality induction mechanism remains a challenge. We propose an atomistic pseudopotential method to model chiral ligand passivated QDs, computing circular dichroism (CD) spectra for CdSe QDs (2.6-3.8 nm). We find strong agreement between calculated and measured line shapes, predicting consistent bisignate line shapes with decreasing CD magnitude as size increases. Further, our analysis reveals the origin of bisignate line shapes, arising from nondegenerate excitons with opposing angular momenta. We also explore the impact of chiral ligand orientation on QD surfaces, observing changes in the optical activity magnitude and sign. This orientation sensitivity offers the means to distinguish ordered from disordered ligand configurations, facilitating the study of order-disorder transitions at ligand-QD interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis for Nuclear Criticality Safety Validation [Slides]

Sensitivity coefficients predict the expected change in a response ($\kappa$) due to a change in some input parameter ($\Sigma$). These responses can be k eff (or ratios of reaction rates). These input parameters are typically nuclear data. The coefficients are dimensionless ratios. What would happen to the system k eff if some piece of data were changed by some amount? The coefficient is calculated without making the change.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Theoretical model of dielectrophoretic water vapor condensation during multiphase flow of electrically charged water droplets in air

Water droplet growth in air, influenced by vapor diffusion and electrical charging, has significant implications for indoor air quality, cloud formation, and aerosol dynamics. Here, this study presents a comprehensive theoretical model that describes the growth dynamics of electrically charged water droplets under external electric fields, incorporating diffusion, electrostatic, and dielectrophoretic forces to enhance understanding and practical applications in air dehumidification and environmental control. A theoretical model was established to analyze the growth dynamics of the charged water droplets. The approach extended the thermodynamic framework of the Modified Kelvin-Thomson equation by integrating electrostatic and dielectrophoretic effects, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of vapor concentration near the surface of charged droplets. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the roles of droplet size, electric field intensity, surface charge, and vapor concentration on condensation rates. The study progressed beyond the classical diffusion-limited growth of neutral droplets, addressing the behavior of charged droplets in electrohydrodynamic environments. The model highlighted the significance of dielectrophoretic drift flux for dipolar vapor molecules, especially in micron-sized droplets ranging from 10 to 100 µm. Findings demonstrated that, for smaller droplets subjected to elevated electrical charge, average growth rates varied from 0.3 to 1.6 µm/s if the air relative humidity increased from 50 to 100 %. Analytical results are corroborated by numerical simulations, which exhibited strong concordance, thereby validating the proposed theoretical approach. This research introduced an innovative and scalable analytical methodology for electric field-enhanced droplet growth, offering valuable insights into the advancement of energy-efficient air dehumidification, water desalination, and atmospheric water harvesting technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Fuel-rich oxidation of gasoline surrogate components in an atmospheric flow reactor

Fuel-rich oxidation of three typical gasoline surrogate components, toluene, isooctane, and n-heptane, was investigated in an atmospheric-pressure flow reactor at mean gas temperatures from 1050 to 1350 K, equivalence ratio of 9.0, and residence times of 0.45 and 1.2 s. Not only polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) up to 3 ring structure but also small intermediate products from C 1 to C 5 were quantified by a gas chromatograph mass spectrometry coupled with photon ionization and gas chromatograph with flame ionization detector, respectively. The kinetic model recently developed by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory was revised to reflect the results of many recent investigations. Basically, the updated model could satisfactorily reproduce the experimental mole fractions of many species. The experimental and simulated results showed that PAH mole fractions produced were in the order of toluene, isooctane, and n-heptane. The kinetic analysis using the model was carried out to explore PAH formation pathways, especially focusing on naphthalene, acenaphthylene, and phenanthrene. Through rate of production analysis, it was found that the main formation pathways of many PAHs were affected by the fuels. Although resonantly stabilized radicals, such as benzyl and fulvenallenyl radicals, played a crucial role in the formation pathways of many PAHs in every fuel, they were produced through hydrogen elimination of toluene in toluene fuel, while they were formed from small intermediate products in isooctane and n-heptane fuels. Sensitivity analysis revealed the difference and similarity of the reactions with large positive coefficients according to the fuels studied here. In conclusion, the molecular growth reactions of aromatic species were influential in PAH production in every fuel, whereas the ring formation reactions from small species and the reactions involving toluene had large positive sensitivity coefficients in isooctane/n-heptane and toluene fuels, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development of SCALE Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation (TSUNAMI) from SCALE 5 through SCALE 6.2

This review paper provides an abbreviated historical review of the development of the TSUNAMI capabilities in SCALE, beginning with the first initiatives, to provide new insights into validation, uncertainty quantification, and safety assessment. The tools of TSUNAMI have evolved substantially over two decades to meet the growing application analysis and experiment design needs. Even more advancements are emerging as the next generation of innovators continue to use and develop these tools.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On the hot surface ignition of a wall-stagnating spray flame

The ignition of fuel sprays due to interaction with hot surfaces is an important phenomenon in the safety analysis of many engineering systems. We perform a parametric study of the hot surface ignition (HSI) of a fuel spray approaching a heated surface caused by the accidental leakage of a fuel line. Here, to this end, we employ a one-dimensional Eulerian-Eulerian formulation with a non-equilibrium evaporation model and a realistic chemical mechanism to describe $n$-dodecane fuel chemistry. We first describe and analyze the phenomenology of the unsteady processes leading to ignition using non-dimensionalized quantities. Through consideration of the temporal development of the most reactive mixture, we demonstrate that ignition occurs at a fuel-lean composition in a premixed region near the hot surface. Using non-dimensional parameters identified from the governing equations, we perform a parametric study of the time, location and local mixture composition at ignition and determine the ignition limits. We then identify the most important parametric sensitivities for physical analysis using a data-driven classification method. Our analysis demonstrates a contraction of the ignition limits with increased Stokes number and a regime of parametric insensitivity of igniting mixture composition. We also show that at high Damköhler numbers, the ignition location conforms to the parametric behavior of the thermal boundary layer, whereas at low Damköhler numbers approaching the ignition limit it reaches a near-unity value of the quenching Peclet number. We then compare the demonstrated parametric dependencies to the results of the quasi-steady asymptotic ignition literature, showing that our results are consistent with those obtained analytically within the limitations imposed by the simplified formulation of the latter.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Non-perturbative production of fermionic dark matter from fast preheating

We investigate non-perturbative production of fermionic dark matter in the early universe. We study analytically the gravitational production mechanism accompanied by the coupling of fermions to the background inflaton field. The latter leads to the variation of effective fermion mass during preheating and makes the resulting spectrum and abundance sensitive to its parameters. Assuming fast preheating that completes in less than the inflationary Hubble time and no oscillations of the inflaton field after inflation, we find an abundant production of particles with energies ranging from the inflationary Hubble rate to the inverse duration of preheating. The produced fermions can account for all observed dark matter in a broad range of parameters. As an application of our analysis, we study non-perturbative production of fermionic dark matter in the model of Palatini Higgs inflation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Isotopic Signatures of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Monohydrate Measured Using Raman Spectroscopy

Lithium isotopic ratios have wide ranging applications as chemical signatures, including improved understanding of geochemical processes and battery development. Measurement of isotope ratios using optical spectroscopies would provide an alternative to traditional mass spectrometric methods, which are expensive and often limited to a chemical laboratory. In this work, Raman spectra of 7 Li 2 CO 3 , 6 Li 2 CO 3 , 7 LiOH*H 2 O and 6 LiOH*H 2 O have been measured to determine the effect of lithium isotope substitution on the Raman molecular vibrations. Thirteen peaks were observed in the spectrum of lithium carbonate, with discernable isotopic shifts occurring in eleven of the thirteen vibrations, two of which have not been previously reported in the literature. The spectrum of lithium hydroxide monohydrate contained nine peaks, with discernable isotopic shifts occurring in eight of the nine vibrations, four of which have not been previously reported in the literature. The Raman spectral data reported here for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide monohydrate are in agreement with the previously reported works in the literature, in which the Raman active modes of these molecules were first identified and assigned. However, due to the stability and resolution of the detection system used in this work, isotopic shifts with a magnitude less than one wavenumber have been identified. Principal Component Regression was used to evaluate the sensitivity to isotopic content of small Raman peak shifts in Li 2 CO 3 and indicates differences greater than 2 atom-% could be reliably determined. These measurements add to the body of work on lithium isotope Raman spectroscopy for these two compounds and increases the number of Raman bands which could be used for lithium isotope content analysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying uncertainty in analysis of shockless dynamic compression experiments on platinum. II. Bayesian model calibration

Dynamic shockless compression experiments provide the ability to explore material behavior at extreme pressures but relatively low temperatures. Typically, the data from these types of experiments are interpreted through an analytic method called Lagrangian analysis. Here, in this work, alternative analysis methods are explored using modern statistical methods. Specifically, Bayesian model calibration is applied to a new set of platinum data shocklessly compressed to 570 GPa. Several platinum equation-of-state models are evaluated, including traditional parametric forms as well as a novel non-parametric model concept. The results are compared to those in Paper I obtained by inverse Lagrangian analysis. The comparisons suggest that Bayesian calibration is not only a viable framework for precise quantification of the compression path, but also reveals insights pertaining to trade-offs surrounding model form selection, sensitivities of the relevant experimental uncertainties, and assumptions and limitations within Lagrangian analysis. The non-parametric model method, in particular, is found to give precise unbiased results and is expected to be useful over a wide range of applications. The calibration results in estimates of the platinum principal isentrope over the full range of experimental pressures to a standard error of 1.6%, which extends the results from Paper I while maintaining the high precision required for the platinum pressure standard.

Brown, Justin Lee↗