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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Users manual for the US baseline corn and soybean segment classification procedure

A user's manual for the classification component of the FY-81 U.S. Corn and Soybean Pilot Experiment in the Foreign Commodity Production Forecasting Project of AgRISTARS is presented. This experiment is one of several major experiments in AgRISTARS designed to measure and advance the remote sensing technologies for cropland inventory. The classification procedure discussed is designed to produce segment proportion estimates for corn and soybeans in the U.S. Corn Belt (Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois) using LANDSAT data. The estimates are produced by an integrated Analyst/Machine procedure. The Analyst selects acquisitions, participates in stratification, and assigns crop labels to selected samples. In concert with the Analyst, the machine digitally preprocesses LANDSAT data to remove external effects, stratifies the data into field like units and into spectrally similar groups, statistically samples the data for Analyst labeling, and combines the labeled samples into a final estimate.

Horvath, R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

ICAP - An Interactive Cluster Analysis Procedure for analyzing remotely sensed data

An Interactive Cluster Analysis Procedure (ICAP) was developed to derive classifier training statistics from remotely sensed data. ICAP differs from conventional clustering algorithms by allowing the analyst to optimize the cluster configuration by inspection, rather than by manipulating process parameters. Control of the clustering process alternates between the algorithm, which creates new centroids and forms clusters, and the analyst, who can evaluate and elect to modify the cluster structure. Clusters can be deleted, or lumped together pairwise, or new centroids can be added. A summary of the cluster statistics can be requested to facilitate cluster manipulation. The principal advantage of this approach is that it allows prior information (when available) to be used directly in the analysis, since the analyst interacts with ICAP in a straightforward manner, using basic terms with which he is more likely to be familiar. Results from testing ICAP showed that an informed use of ICAP can improve classification, as compared to an existing cluster analysis procedure.

Wharton, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Evaluation of Nimbus 7 THIR/CLE and Air Force three-dimensional Nephanalysis estimates of cloud amount

Three different estimates of the percent of fixed geographical regions (160 x 160 km) either free of cloud (clear) or covered by low, middle, and high (opaque) cloud have been intercompared. The estimates were derived by analysts interpreting geosynchronous satellite images, with concurrent meteorological observations; from Nimbus 7 temperature humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) CLOUD ERB (CLE) data; and from Air Force three dimensional nephanalysis (3DN) data. Air Force 3DN agrees better with the analyst than THIR/CLE, except for high cloud amount; the CLE and 3DN results tend to overestimate clear amount when clear amount is large and underestimate it when clear amount is small, by 10-20 percent for CLE and by 5-10 percent for 3DN, and both agree well with the analyst in the mean. Systematic and random errors for 3DN and CLE are specified. CLE estimates of cloud amount over land at night should not be used for scientific purposes unless restricted to high cloud amount. It is believed that the CLR and 3DN are the only two digitized, global cloud type and amount data sets in existence.

Stowe, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

NAVSPASUR orbital processing for satellite break-up events

Satellite breakups via explosion or collision can instantly increase the trackable orbiting population by up to several hundred objects, temporarily perturbing the routine space surveillance operations at U.S. Space Command (USSPACWCOM) and the Naval Space Surveillance Center (NAVSPASUR). This paper is a survey of some of the procedures and techniques used by NAVSPASUR to respond to such events. First, the overall data flow at NAVSPASUR is described highlighting the places at which human analysts may intervene with special processing. So-called manual intervention is required in a variety of non-nominal situations, including breakups. Second, a description is given of some of the orbital analysis and other software tools available to NAVSPASUR analysts. These tools were developed in-house over the past thirty years and can be employed in a highly flexible manner. The basic design philosophy for these tools was to implement simple concepts as efficiently as possible and to allow the analyst maximum use of his personal expertise. Finally, several historical breakup scenarios are discussed briefly. These scenarios provide examples of the types of questions that are fairly easy to answer in the present operational environment, as well as examples of questions that are very difficult to answer.

Schumacher, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Animation of multi-flexible body systems and its use in control system design

Animation can greatly assist the structural dynamicist and control system analyst with better understanding of how multi-flexible body systems behave. For multi-flexible body systems, the structural characteristics (mode frequencies, mode shapes, and damping) change, sometimes dramatically with large angles of rotation between bodies. With computer animation, the analyst can visualize these changes and how the system responds to active control forces and torques. A characterization of the type of system we wish to animate is presented. The lack of clear understanding of the above effects was a key element leading to the development of a multi-flexible body animation software package. The resulting animation software is described in some detail here, followed by its application to the control system analyst. Other applications of this software can be determined on an individual need basis. A number of software products are currently available that make the high-speed rendering of rigid body mechanical system simulation possible. However, such options are not available for use in rendering flexible body mechanical system simulations. The desire for a high-speed flexible body visualization tool led to the development of the Flexible Or Rigid Mechanical System (FORMS) software. This software was developed at the Center for Simulation and Design Optimization of Mechanical Systems at the University of Iowa. FORMS provides interactive high-speed rendering of flexible and/or rigid body mechanical system simulations, and combines geometry and motion information to produce animated output. FORMS is designed to be both portable and flexible, and supports a number of different user interfaces and graphical display devices. Additional features have been added to FORMS that allow special visualization results related to the nature of the flexible body geometric representations.

Juengst, Carl↗
NASA NTRS1993

GenSAA: A tool for advancing satellite monitoring with graphical expert systems

During numerous contacts with a satellite each day, spacecraft analysts must closely monitor real time data for combinations of telemetry parameter values, trends, and other indications that may signify a problem or failure. As satellites become more complex and the number of data items increases, this task is becoming increasingly difficult for humans to perform at acceptable performance levels. At the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, fault-isolation expert systems have been developed to support data monitoring and fault detection tasks in satellite control centers. Based on the lessons learned during these initial efforts in expert system automation, a new domain-specific expert system development tool named the Generic Spacecraft Analyst Assistant (GenSAA) is being developed to facilitate the rapid development and reuse of real-time expert systems to serve as fault-isolation assistants for spacecraft analysts. Although initially domain-specific in nature, this powerful tool will support the development of highly graphical expert systems for data monitoring purposes throughout the space and commercial industry.

Hughes, Peter M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

RAVE: Rapid Visualization Environment

Visualization is used in the process of analyzing large, multidimensional data sets. However, the selection and creation of visualizations that are appropriate for the characteristics of a particular data set and the satisfaction of the analyst's goals is difficult. The process consists of three tasks that are performed iteratively: generate, test, and refine. The performance of these tasks requires the utilization of several types of domain knowledge that data analysts do not often have. Existing visualization systems and frameworks do not adequately support the performance of these tasks. In this paper we present the RApid Visualization Environment (RAVE), a knowledge-based system that interfaces with commercial visualization frameworks and assists a data analyst in quickly and easily generating, testing, and refining visualizations. RAVE was used for the visualization of in situ measurement data captured by spacecraft.

Klumpar, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The Table of Distribution and Allowances (TDA) system analyzer

TDA documents determine the personnel strengths for each Army installation. They reflect the number of people required to accomplish a certain mission by various characteristics. U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) analysts continuously scrutinize these documents to ensure that they comply with provided guidance. Part of this guidance has been used to develop a set of manual rules. Analysts apply these rules to the TDA to eliminate positions, downgrade positions, or reduce position strength. However, this process is very time consuming. ln addition, human involvement introduces inconsistencies and errors that are difficult to detect later. This paper explains how I represented these rules using the 'C' Language Production System (CLIPS) to develop an expert system that is applied consistently and comprehensively for all TRADOC installations. The TDA System Analyzer reduces the review process from about five days to just twenty minutes; giving the user more time to analyze the results and thereby make better decisions. Furthermore, the user is assured that the rules are applied uniformly to every TDA document. This paper also explains the integration of the TDA System Analyzer into TRADOC's On-Line TDA System. Providing the analyst an extra utility module that can be accessed from a familiar environment.

Mack, John F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

MOD Tool (Microwave Optics Design Tool)

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is currently designing and building a number of instruments that operate in the microwave and millimeter-wave bands. These include MIRO (Microwave Instrument for the Rosetta Orbiter), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder), and IMAS (Integrated Multispectral Atmospheric Sounder). These instruments must be designed and built to meet key design criteria (e.g., beamwidth, gain, pointing) obtained from the scientific goals for the instrument. These criteria are frequently functions of the operating environment (both thermal and mechanical). To design and build instruments which meet these criteria, it is essential to be able to model the instrument in its environments. Currently, a number of modeling tools exist. Commonly used tools at JPL include: FEMAP (meshing), NASTRAN (structural modeling), TRASYS and SINDA (thermal modeling), MACOS/IMOS (optical modeling), and POPO (physical optics modeling). Each of these tools is used by an analyst, who models the instrument in one discipline. The analyst then provides the results of this modeling to another analyst, who continues the overall modeling in another discipline. There is a large reengineering task in place at JPL to automate and speed-up the structural and thermal modeling disciplines, which does not include MOD Tool. The focus of MOD Tool (and of this paper) is in the fields unique to microwave and millimeter-wave instrument design. These include initial design and analysis of the instrument without thermal or structural loads, the automation of the transfer of this design to a high-end CAD tool, and the analysis of the structurally deformed instrument (due to structural and/or thermal loads). MOD Tool is a distributed tool, with a database of design information residing on a server, physical optics analysis being performed on a variety of supercomputer platforms, and a graphical user interface (GUI) residing on the user's desktop computer. The MOD Tool client is being developed using Tcl/Tk, which allows the user to work on a choice of platforms (PC, Mac, or Unix) after downloading the Tcl/Tk binary, which is readily available on the web. The MOD Tool server is written using Expect, and it resides on a Sun workstation. Client/server communications are performed over a socket, where upon a connection from a client to the server, the server spawns a child which is be dedicated to communicating with that client. The server communicates with other machines, such as supercomputers using Expect with the username and password being provided by the user on the client.

Katz, Daniel S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.

Piland, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

An On-line Technology Information System (OTIS) for Advanced Life Support

OTIS is an on-line communication platform designed for smooth flow of technology information between advanced life support (ALS) technology developers, researchers, system analysts, and managers. With pathways for efficient transfer of information, several improvements in the ALS Program will result. With OTIS, it will be possible to provide programmatic information for technology developers and researchers, technical information for analysts, and managerial decision support. OTIS is a platform that enables the effective research, development, and delivery of complex systems for life support. An electronic data collection form has been developed for the solid waste element, drafted by the Solid Waste Working Group. Forms for other elements (air revitalization, water recovery, food processing, biomass production and thermal control) will also be developed, based on lessons learned from the development of the solid waste form. All forms will be developed by consultation with other working groups, comprised of experts in the area of interest. Forms will be converted to an on-line data collection interface that technology developers will use to transfer information into OTIS. Funded technology developers will log in to OTIS annually to complete the element- specific forms for their technology. The type and amount of information requested expands as the technology readiness level (TRL) increases. The completed forms will feed into a regularly updated and maintained database that will store technology information and allow for database searching. To ensure confidentiality of proprietary information, security permissions will be customized for each user. Principal investigators of a project will be able to designate certain data as proprietary and only technical monitors of a task, ALS Management, and the principal investigator will have the ability to view this information. The typical OTIS user will be able to read all non-proprietary information about all projects.Interaction with the database will occur over encrypted connections, and data will be stored on the server in an encrypted form. Implementation of OTIS will initiate a community-accessible repository of technology development information. With OTIS, ALS element leads and managers will be able to carry out informed technology selection for programmatic decisions. OTIS will also allow analysts to make accurate evaluations of technology options. Additionally, the range and specificity of information solicited will help educate technology developers of program needs. With augmentation, OTIS reporting is capable of replacing the current fiscal year-end reporting process. Overall, the system will enable more informed R&TD decisions and more rapid attainment of ALS Program goals.

Levri, Julie A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Extraction of Airport Features from High Resolution Satellite Imagery for Design and Risk Assessment

The LPA Group, consisting of 17 offices located throughout the eastern and central United States is an architectural, engineering and planning firm specializing in the development of Airports, Roads and Bridges. The primary focus of this ARC project is concerned with assisting their aviation specialists who work in the areas of Airport Planning, Airfield Design, Landside Design, Terminal Building Planning and design, and various other construction services. The LPA Group wanted to test the utility of high-resolution commercial satellite imagery for the purpose of extracting airport elevation features in the glide path areas surrounding the Columbia Metropolitan Airport. By incorporating remote sensing techniques into their airport planning process, LPA wanted to investigate whether or not it is possible to save time and money while achieving the equivalent accuracy as traditional planning methods. The Affiliate Research Center (ARC) at the University of South Carolina investigated the use of remotely sensed imagery for the extraction of feature elevations in the glide path zone. A stereo pair of IKONOS panchromatic satellite images, which has a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 m, was used to determine elevations of aviation obstructions such as buildings, trees, towers and fence-lines. A validation dataset was provided by the LPA Group to assess the accuracy of the measurements derived from the IKONOS imagery. The initial goal of this project was to test the utility of IKONOS imagery in feature extraction using ERDAS Stereo Analyst. This goal was never achieved due to problems with ERDAS software support of the IKONOS sensor model and the unavailability of imperative sensor model information from Space Imaging. The obstacles encountered in this project pertaining to ERDAS Stereo Analyst and IKONOS imagery will be reviewed in more detail later in this report. As a result of the technical difficulties with Stereo Analyst, ERDAS OrthoBASE was used to derive aviation obstruction measurements for this project. After collecting ancillary data such as GPS locations, South Carolina Geodetic Survey and Aero Dynamics ground survey points to set up the OrthoBASE Block File, measurements were taken of the various glide path obstructions and compared to the validation dataset. This process yielded the following conclusions: The IKONOS stereo model in conjunction with Imagine OrthoBASE can provide The LPA Group with a fast and cost efficient method for assessing aviation obstructions. Also, by creating our own stereo model we achieved any accuracy better currently available commercial products.

Robinson, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2008

Crew Activity Analyzer

The crew activity analyzer (CAA) is a system of electronic hardware and software for automatically identifying patterns of group activity among crew members working together in an office, cockpit, workshop, laboratory, or other enclosed space. The CAA synchronously records multiple streams of data from digital video cameras, wireless microphones, and position sensors, then plays back and processes the data to identify activity patterns specified by human analysts. The processing greatly reduces the amount of time that the analysts must spend in examining large amounts of data, enabling the analysts to concentrate on subsets of data that represent activities of interest. The CAA has potential for use in a variety of governmental and commercial applications, including planning for crews for future long space flights, designing facilities wherein humans must work in proximity for long times, improving crew training and measuring crew performance in military settings, human-factors and safety assessment, development of team procedures, and behavioral and ethnographic research. The data-acquisition hardware of the CAA (see figure) includes two video cameras: an overhead one aimed upward at a paraboloidal mirror on the ceiling and one mounted on a wall aimed in a downward slant toward the crew area. As many as four wireless microphones can be worn by crew members. The audio signals received from the microphones are digitized, then compressed in preparation for storage. Approximate locations of as many as four crew members are measured by use of a Cricket indoor location system. [The Cricket indoor location system includes ultrasonic/radio beacon and listener units. A Cricket beacon (in this case, worn by a crew member) simultaneously transmits a pulse of ultrasound and a radio signal that contains identifying information. Each Cricket listener unit measures the difference between the times of reception of the ultrasound and radio signals from an identified beacon. Assuming essentially instantaneous propagation of the radio signal, the distance between that beacon and the listener unit is estimated from this time difference and the speed of sound in air.] In this system, six Cricket listener units are mounted in various positions on the ceiling, and as many as four Cricket beacons are attached to crew members. The three-dimensional position of each Cricket beacon can be estimated from the time-difference readings of that beacon from at least three Cricket listener units

Murray, James↗
NASA NTRS2014

GPM Timeline Inhibits For IT Processing

The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool was created as one approach to capturing and understanding inhibits and controls from IT through launch. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission, which launched from Japan in March 2014, was a joint mission under a partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). GPM was one of the first NASA Goddard in-house programs that extensively used software controls. Using this tool during the GPM buildup allowed a thorough review of inhibit and safety critical software design for hazardous subsystems such as the high gain antenna boom, solar array, and instrument deployments, transmitter turn-on, propulsion system release, and instrument radar turn-on. The GPM safety team developed a methodology to document software safety as part of the standard hazard report. As a result of this process, a new tool safety inhibit timeline was created for management of inhibits and their controls during spacecraft buildup and testing during IT at GSFC and at the launch range in Japan. The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool was a pathfinder approach for reviewing software that controls the electrical inhibits. The Safety Inhibit Timeline Tool strengthens the Safety Analysts understanding of the removal of inhibits during the IT process with safety critical software. With this tool, the Safety Analyst can confirm proper safe configuration of a spacecraft during each IT test, track inhibit and software configuration changes, and assess software criticality. In addition to understanding inhibits and controls during IT, the tool allows the Safety Analyst to better communicate to engineers and management the changes in inhibit states with each phase of hardware and software testing and the impact of safety risks. Lessons learned from participating in the GPM campaign at NASA and JAXA will be discussed during this session.

Inhibits↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Expert System-Driven Method for Parametric Trajectory Optimization During Conceptual Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle cost. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult in both cost and schedule to enact. The current capability-based paradigm, which has emerged because of the constrained economic environment, calls for the infusion of knowledge usually acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bringing knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture yet little of the information required to successfully optimize a trajectory is known early in the design phase. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. When these obstacles are coupled with the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, expert trajectory analysts are required to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. Over the course of this paper, the authors discuss a methodology developed at NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office to address these issues. The methodology is two-fold: first, capture the heuristics developed by human analysts over their many years of experience; and secondly, leverage the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously and therefore enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre- conceptual and conceptual phases of design. This methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, which enables trajectory design space visualization and parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be available when early design decisions are being made.

Dees, Patrick D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Dose of Reality: Radiation Analysis for Realistic Human Spacecraft

INTRODUCTION As with most computational analyses, a tradeoff exists between problem complexity, resource availability and response accuracy when modeling radiation transport from the source to a detector. The largest amount of analyst time for setting up an analysis is often spent ensuring that any simplifications made have minimal impact on the results. The vehicle shield geometry of interest is typically simplified from the original CAD design in order to reduce computation time, but this simplification requires the analyst to "re-draw" the geometry with a limited set of volumes in order to accommodate a specific radiation transport software package. The resulting low-fidelity geometry model cannot be shared with or compared to other radiation transport software packages, and the process can be error prone with increased model complexity. The work presented here demonstrates the use of the DAGMC (Direct Accelerated Geometry for Monte Carlo) Toolkit from the University of Wisconsin, to model the impacts of several space radiation sources on a CAD drawing of the US Lab module. METHODS The DAGMC toolkit workflow begins with the export of an existing CAD geometry from the native CAD to the ACIS format. The ACIS format file is then cleaned using SpaceClaim to remove small holes and component overlaps. Metadata is then assigned to the cleaned geometry file using CUBIT/Trelis from csimsoft (Registered Trademark). The DAGMC plugin script removes duplicate shared surfaces, facets the geometry to a specified tolerance, and ensures that the faceted geometry is water tight. This step also writes the material and scoring information to a standard input file format that the analyst can alter as desired prior to running the radiation transport program. The scoring results can be transformed, via python script, into a 3D format that is viewable in a standard graphics program. RESULTS The CAD model of the US Lab module of the International Space Station, inclusive of all the racks and components, was simplified to remove holes and volume overlaps. Problematic features within the drawing were also removed or repaired to prevent runtime issues. The cleaned drawing was then run through the DAGMC workflow to prepare for analysis. Pilot tests modeling transport of 1GeV proton and 800MeV/A oxygen sources show that reasonable results are converged upon in an acceptable amount of overall computation time from drawing preparation to data analysis. The FLUKA radiation transport code will next be used to model both a GCR and a trapped radiation source. These results will then be compared with measurements that have been made by the radiation instrumentation deployed inside the US Lab module. DISCUSSION Early analyses have indicated that the DAGMC workflow is a promising toolkit for running vehicle geometries of interest to NASA through multiple radiation transport codes. In addition, recent work has shown that a realistic human phantom, provided via a subcontract with the University of Florida, can be placed inside any vehicle geometry for a combinatorial analysis. This added functionality gives the user the ability to score various parameters at the organ level, and the results can then be used as input for cancer risk models.

Barzilla, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

JSC OCFO Cloud Integrated Budget Analytical Toolbox

The JSC OCFO analyst's job function relies heavily on analytics to provide every directorate customer with quality service in managing their respective budgets. This technology, configured on the Salesforce cloud platform, enhances the JSC OCFO customer user interface, provides state of the art data analytics and statistics, reduces IT costs, increases productivity, eliminates duplicate entry and errors, and utilizes machine learning and artificial intelligence to process day to day transactional tasks automatically without analyst manipulation. The unique configuration of the COTS technology allows for highly advanced analysis and reporting of government budget data. This provides the ability for complex budgets to be fully understood in detail by non-budget organizations and eliminates time consuming analysis on the OCFO analyst's behalf.

Robertson, Arden↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A Covid-19 Study

The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.

ASRS↗