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For each of the methods identified, a theoretical basis is provided and an illustrative example is described. The example includes sufficient realism and detail to enable an analyst to conduct an evaluation of other systems. The methods discussed in the study include equal capability cost analysis, consumers' surplus, and statistical decision theory.
In the evolution of life forms nonphotosynthetic mechanisms are developed. The question remains whether a total life system could evolve which is not dependent upon photosynthesis. In trying to visualize life on other planets, the photosynthetic process has problems. On Mars, the high intensity of light at the surface is a concern and alternative mechanisms need to be defined and analyzed. In the UV search for alternate mechanisms, several different areas may be identified. These involve activated inorganic compounds in the atmosphere, such as the products of photodissociation of carbon dioxide and the organic material which may be created by natural phenomena. In addition, a life system based on the pressure of the atmospheric constituents, such as carbon dioxide, is a possibility. These considerations may be important for the understanding of evolutionary processes of life on another planet. Model systems which depend on these alternative mechanisms are defined and related to presently planned and future planetary missions.
Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.
The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.
The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.
The search for ozone depleting alternative chemicals was heightened when, in 1990, the more than 65 countries that had signed the Montreal Protocol agreed to phase out completely by the year 2000. In 1992, then-president Bush advanced this date for the United States to January l, 1996. In 1991, it was realized that the planned phase out and eventual elimination of ozone depleting chemicals imposed by the Montreal Protocol and the resulting Clean Air Act (CAA) amendments would impact the cleaning and testing of aerospace hardware at the NASA Stennis Space Center. Because of this regulation, the Test & Engineering Sciences Laboratory has been working on solvent conversion studies to replace CFC-113. Aerospace hardware and test equipment used in rocket propulsion systems require extreme cleanliness levels to function and maintain their integrity. Because the cleanliness of aerospace hardware will be affected by the elimination of CFC-113; alternate cleaning technologies, including the use of fluoridated solvents have been studied as potential replacements. Several aqueous processes have been identified for cleaning moderately sized components. However, no known aqueous alternative exists for cleaning and validating T&ME and complex geometry based hardware. This paper discusses the choices and the methodologies that were used to screen potential alternatives to CFC-113.
The architecture for the National Airspace System (NAS) in the United States has evolved over time to rely heavily on the distribution of tasks and control authority in order to keep cognitive complexity manageable for any one individual. This paper characterizes a number of different subsystems that have been recently incorporated in the NAS. The goal of this discussion is to begin to identify the critical parameters defining the differences among alternative architectures in terms of the locus of control and in terms of access to relevant data and knowledge. At an abstract level, this analysis can be described as an effort to describe alternative "rules of the game" for the NAS.
The automated terminal area path generation problem in the advanced Air Traffic Control System (ATC), has been studied. Definitions, input, output and the interrelationships with other ATC functions have been discussed. Alternatives in modeling the problem have been identified. Problem formulations and solution techniques are presented. In particular, the solution of a minimum effort path stretching problem (path generation on a given schedule) has been carried out using the Newton-Raphson trajectory optimization method. Discussions are presented on the effect of different delivery time, aircraft entry position, initial guess on the boundary conditions, etc. Recommendations are made on real-world implementations.
A study was made to develop the characteristics, cost, and performance of a few of the more attractive application concepts, and to compare them against leading terrestrial alternatives, in order to determine their potential, identify those deserving further NASA attention and possible inclusion into the formal development planning sequence, and serve to initiate a dialogue with the using community and agencies.
The United States depends entirely on foreign sources for the critical material, chromium, making it very vulnerable to supply disruptions. The effectiveness of programs such as stockpiling, conservation, and research and development for substitutes to reduce the impact of disruption of imports of chromite and ferrochromium are discussed. Alternatives for decreasing chromium consumption also are identified for chromium-containing materials in the areas of design, processing, and substitution.
The Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS), a program undertaken to identify the most attractive advanced energy conversion systems for industrial cogeneration applications in the 1985-2000 time period, is described, and preliminary results are presented. Two cogeneration options are included in the analysis: a topping application, in which fuel is input to the energy conversion system which generates electricity and waste heat from the conversion system is used to provide heat to the process, and a bottoming application, in which fuel is burned to provide high temperature process heat and waste heat from the process is used as thermal input to the energy conversion system which generates energy. Steam turbines, open and closed cycle gas turbines, combined cycles, diesel engines, Stirling engines, phosphoric acid and molten carbonate fuel cells and thermionics are examined. Expected plant level energy savings, annual energy cost savings, and other results of the economic analysis are given, and the sensitivity of these results to the assumptions concerning fuel prices, price of purchased electricity and the potential effects of regional energy use characteristics is discussed.
The results of this effort are presented in a manner for use by both the AIDS 3 Operational and Economic Feasibility subtasks as well as the Development of Alternative subtask. The approach taken was to identify the major functions that appear in AIDS 3 and then to determine which technologies would be needed for support. The technologies were then examined from the point of view of reliability, throughput, security, availability, cost and possible future trends. Whenever possible graphs are given to indicate projected costs of rapidly changing technologies.
The application of communication structures to advanced transport aircraft are addressed. First, a set of avionic functional requirements is established, and a baseline set of avionics equipment is defined that will meet the requirements. Three alternative configurations for this equipment are then identified that represent the evolution toward more dispersed systems. Candidate communication structures are proposed for each system configuration, and these are compared using trade off analyses; these analyses emphasize reliability but also address complexity. Multiplex buses are recognized as the likely near term choice with mesh networks being desirable for advanced, highly dispersed systems.
New cyclic group codes of length 2(exp m) - 1 over (m - j)-bit symbols are introduced. These codes can be systematically encoded and decoded algebraically. The code rates are very close to Reed-Solomon (RS) codes and are much better than Bose-Chaudhuri-Hocquenghem (BCH) codes (a former alternative). The binary (m - j)-tuples are identified with a subgroup of the binary m-tuples which represents the field GF(2 exp m). Encoding is systematic and involves a two-stage procedure consisting of the usual linear feedback register (using the division or check polynomial) and a small table lookup. For low rates, a second shift-register encoding operation may be invoked. Decoding uses the RS error-correcting procedures for the m-tuple codes for m = 4, 5, and 6.
This paper presents further discussion of and new data on fast subvisual increases in the luminosity of the night sky described in our previous papers. A detailed technical description of the simple telescopic photometers used in the project SKYFLASH and their mode of operation including the detection of polarized Rayleigh-scattered flashes is provided. Distant lightning storms account for many of the events, and the complex relations between short and long luminous pulses with and without sferics are shown by examples from a new computerized data system, supplemented by two low-light-level TV cameras. Of particular interest are the previously observed 'long' events having a slow rise and fall, 20-ms duration, and showing small polarization and no coincident sferic. A group of such events on September 22-23 during the invasion of U.S. coasts by Hurricane Hugo, is discussed in detail. The recently observed 'plume' cloud-top-to-stratosphere lightning event is suggested as a possible source type for these flashes. An alternative source may be exploding meteors, recently identified during SKYFLASH observations by low-light-level television techniques as the origin of some sky-wide flash events described herein.
The work presented in this paper was performed to identify and quantify the offgassing behavior of alternative re-waterproofmg materials under investigation for application to Shuttle Orbiter Thermal Protection System (TPS) tile and blanket materials. The purpose was to determine whether the new materials would cause a problem with the operational analysis of residual vapors using the current portable vapor analyzer, a Miran 203. The materials investigated were limited to dimethylethoxysilane (DMES) and proposed solvent selected as suitable for use in re-waterproofing Orbiter TPS. The solvent was selected in another phase of the overall project. Obiter TPS tiles were injected with the re-waterproofing materials under constant conditions of temperature, relative humidity and air flow. The vapor concentrations of offgassing materials were monitored using Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) multi-component analysis, and with the Miran 203 instruments. The procedure was to record the time dependent concentrations of offgassing materials as analyzed by the FTIR, and the time response of the Miran 203 to the materials under consideration. The FTIR was calibrated for vapor phase DMES, tetramethyldisiloxane (TMDS), ethanol and the hydrocarbon solvents to be used to dilute the DMES for application to the TPS tile. The Miran 203 was calibrated for the operational measurement of DMES airborne vapors. The FTIR data, shows for the first time that the principal product which offgases from the tile after the first hour is not DMES, but TMDS and ethanol. The Miran 203 response to TMDS is the primary reading after the re-waterproofing operation is completed. The operational use of the Miran 203 to measure DMES vapors after re-waterproofmg operations has been responding to TMDS. The results of this study suggest that the historical complaints that have contributed to the low threshold limit value (TLV) for DMES concentrations, as read with the Miran 203, are actually based on instrumental responses to TMDS, for which no other toxicology information is available at this time. While there is some interference, the use of the tested hydrocarbon solvents does not adversely affect the response of the Miran 203.
Robotic reconnaissance has the potential to significantly improve scientific and technical return from lunar surface exploration. In particular, robotic recon may increase crew productivity and reduce operational risk for exploration. However, additional research, development and field-testing is needed to mature robot and ground control systems, refine operational protocols, and specify detailed requirements. When the new lunar surface campaign begins around 2020, and before permanent outposts are established, humans will initially be on the Moon less than 10% of the time. During the 90% of time between crew visits, robots will be available to perform surface operations under ground control. Understanding how robotic systems can best address surface science needs, therefore, becomes a central issue Prior to surface missions, lunar orbiters (LRO, Kaguya, Chandrayyan-1, etc.) will map the Moon. These orbital missions will provide numerous types of maps: visible photography, topographic, mineralogical and geochemical distributions, etc. However, remote sensing data will not be of sufficient resolution, lighting, nor view angle, to fully optimize pre-human exploration planning, e.g., crew traverses for field geology and geophysics. Thus, it is important to acquire supplemental and complementary surface data. Robotic recon can obtain such data, using robot-mounted instruments to scout the surface and subsurface at resolutions and at viewpoints not achievable from orbit. This data can then be used to select locations for detailed field activity and prioritize targets to improve crew productivity. Surface data can also help identify and assess terrain hazards, and evaluate alternate routes to reduce operational risk. Robotic recon could be done months in advance, or be part of a continuing planning process during human missions.
Imagine you are an astronaut on their 100th day of your three year exploration mission. During your daily routine to the small hygiene compartment of the spacecraft, you realize that no matter what you do, your body blocks the light from the lamp. You can clearly see your hands or your toes but not both! What were those design engineers thinking! It would have been nice if they could have made the walls glow instead! The reason the designers were not more innovative is that their interpretation of the system lighting requirements didn't allow them to be so! Currently, our interior spacecraft lighting standards and requirements are written around the concept of a quantity of light illuminating a spacecraft surface. The natural interpretation for the engineer is that a lamp that throws light to the surface is required. Because of certification costs, only one lamp is designed and small rooms can wind up with lamps that may be inappropriate for the room architecture. The advances in solid state light emitting technologies and optics for lighting and visual communication necessitates the evaluation of how NASA envisions spacecraft lighting architectures and how NASA uses industry standards for the design and evaluation of lighting system. Current NASA lighting standards and requirements for existing architectures focus on the separate ability of a lighting system to throw light against a surface or the ability of a display system to provide the appropriate visual contrast. Realization that these systems can be integrated is not realized. The result is that the systems are developed independent from one another and potential efficiencies that could be realized from borrowing from the concept of one technology and applying it for the purpose of the other does not occur. This project investigated the possibility of incorporating large luminous surface lamps as an alternative or supplement to overhead lighting. We identified existing industry standards for architectural luminous or brightness uniformity as part of a lighting system definition. The efficiency of the surface lighting technology was evaluated for uniformity and power consumption. Finally, the team investigated possible performance savings if the walls were made to glow via a self luminous surface system instead of creating brightness by use of direct lighting of a highly reflective diffuse surface.