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Technical Basis for the International Export of Handheld Spectroscopy Detectors

The international export of handheld spectroscopy detectors by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) to partner states will provide state regulatory authorities and nuclear material owners a way to improve accountancy for accidental gains of nuclear material, including the provision of reports to the IAEA, in order to meet their safeguards agreements. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards agreements for non-nuclear weapons states requires accountancy for all nuclear material. As defined in Article XX of the IAEA statute, nuclear material includes source materials: "uranium containing the mixture of isotopes occurring in nature," and special fissionable material: "plutonium-239; uranium-233; uranium enriched in the isotopes 235 or 233". For IAEA Member States to meet their requirements under comprehensive safeguards agreements (CSA), safeguards are to be applied on "all source or special fissionable material," which "includes all nuclear material subject to IAEA safeguards". Therefore, accidental gains and losses of nuclear material must be reported to the IAEA. An accidental gain occurs when a state unexpectedly adds nuclear material to their inventory by various means such as seizing smuggled material or the discovery of legacy items previously unaccounted for. The material type and quantity must be added to the State's inventory by updating domestic records and then communicated to the IAEA.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Laser Plasma Interaction in the MG Magnetic Field (Final Report)

Strong magnetic fields change properties of plasma. Employment of the magnetic fields can improve conditions for inertial confinement fusion. Compression and heating of the magnetized plasma is a base of the MagLIF pulsed power approach to the controlled fusion. Study of expansion and heating of plasma in the external magnetic fields, development of plasma instabilities, parametric and other effects are important for basic physics and applications. The main goal of the research for the grant was experimental investigation of laser produced plasma in the well characterized and controlled MG magnetic fields. We developed a platform for investigation of high intensity laser-plasma interaction (LPI) in the MG fields using a university-scale pulsed power machine. A Zebra machine at UNR generated transverse magnetic fields of 3 MG on the surface of the rod load and longitudinal fields of 1.4 MG in the coil loads. The magnetic fields were characterized with two-color Faraday rotation diagnostics. The pulsed power machine provided almost static magnetic fields for LPI compared to the much faster laser driven magnetic fields. We found that eddy currents in the rising magnetic field generate plasma on the metal targets. Eddy currents did not impact Si and CH dielectric targets. A Leopard laser with intensity in the focus up to 10 19 W/cm 2 produced plasma in the MG magnetic fields. The modified reflected Faraday diagnostics was used to study laser driven B-field at the MTW laser at Laboratory for Laser Energetics, UR. We demonstrated a slow dependence of the magnetic field in the coil on the applied laser intensity. The magnetic field increased by a factor of 2 if laser intensity increased by a factor of 30. This scaling is important for comparison of experiments at different laser facilities. Expansion of the plasma in the 2-3 MG external B-field was studied. Laser-produced plasma in the azimuthal magnetic field took the unique form of a thin disc expanding radially with a velocity of 250 km/s and confined in the vertical direction. A HYDRA MHD program at the University of Rochester was applied for simulations of LPI in the magnetic field B >3 MG. Simulations for the plasma disc parameters and the expansion dynamics were in a good agreement with experiments. Generation of narrow dense plasma jets in the longitudinal magnetic field of 0.6-0.8 MG was studied. Narrow plasma jets reached a length of 3-4 mm with the electron plasma density of (0.2-1.2)x10 20 cm -3 . A jet tip propagated with the velocity of 160-200 km/s. MHD simulations showed a good agreement of the dynamics of the formation of plasma jets with experiments. These jets are relevant to astrophysical jets. Simulations of K-shell spectra of Si plasma was performed for LPI in the B-field. The laser prepulse generated plasma near the laser target. A PrismSPECT model with a MeV electron beam produced by the laser was used. The spectral modelling showed the increased plasma density by a factor by 2-3 in the magnetic field. This was in agreement with the observed dynamics of the plasma plume confined by the axial magnetic field. The two-plasmon decay was studied in the 2.5-3 MG transversal magnetic fields. Strong 2-3.5 nm spectral widening and a 2-4 nm shifts of “red” and “blue” 3/2ω 0 spectral components were observed. The large shift and widening exceed the expected temperature and magnetic shift. PIC simulations are performing to clarify physics of this effect. The experimental research program for the grant is completed. New plasma effects in the MG fields were studied at the university-scale pulsed power generator. Two graduate and two undergraduate UNR and UR students carried experiments at the Zebra generator, supported and developed plasma diagnostics, provided data processing, and performed MHD simulations of LPI in the strong magnetic field. Research results are published in 9 referred papers and presented in 12 conferences. Program manager: Kramer U. Akli; Collaborators: R. C. Mancini and H. Sawada, University of Nevada, Reno (UNR); R. Betti and A. V. Maximov, University of Rochester (UR).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

(U) A Linear Response Model Predicts Reactivity From a Density Profile

We tested the ability to predict the system reactivity, described by alpha, given a density profile using a simple linear system response. We generated a suite of 1-dimensional density profiles that consisted of nominal density, a discontinuity, and a decay. These profiles were prescribed a functional form and the mass was conserved in all cases. From these density profiles, we calculated the alpha value of the 3-dimensional system.We calculated a linear response function given a training set of the 1-dimensional density profiles, and the system reactivity described by alpha. We tested the robustness of the response function using the remaining test data. Our results showed very good agreement between the predicted and calculated test values, where the distribution of alpha differences was centered about zero and had a standard deviation of 0.005 gens/shake. The predicted and calculated alpha values did not significantly differ (t=-0.0009 p<0.99). We used Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to reduce the matrix rank by retaining95% of the cumulative singular value contributions. This reduced the matrix rank by 91.7%. We generated the linear response matrix and calculated the difference between the predicted and calculated alpha values. Using the reduced order matrix, we showed good agreement between the predicted and calculated alpha values where the distribution of differences was centered near zero, the standard deviation was 0.006 gens/shake, and the statistical t-test showed good agreement (t=0.02, p<0.98). These results show a linear relationship between a series of 1-dimensional density profiles,where the mass was conserved, and the system reactivity. The next steps of this work will be to investigate the linear response using 2-dimensional density profiles.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Validation of the SCEPTRE Boltzmann-CSD Solver

A new Boltzmann-CSD solver has been developed within the SCEPTRE radiation-transport code, based on the 1st-order form of the transport equation, using discontinuous finite elements in space and energy and discrete ordinates in angle. The Boltzmann-CSD solver has been validated against experimental data for electron energy deposition distributions and for electron emission spectra. Comparison of the calculated results with experimental data shows excellent agreement for many of the test configurations and reasonable agreement for other test configurations. The tests have also been modeled with the ITS Monte Carlo code, which also shows excellent to reasonable agreement with the SCEPTRE results and experimental data. The SCEPTRE Boltzmann-CSD solver relies on electron cross sections generated by the legacy CEPXS code, which currently is limited to electron-only Boltzmann-CSD cross sections. Performing full electron-photon radiation transport with the Boltzmann-CSD solver will require further development in the cross section generating code. For the energy- deposition calculations, neglecting photon transport results in at most about 5% overprediction of the energy deposition for high-energy electrons on high-Z targets, and relatively insignificant difference for the other test configurations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan for Corrective Action Unit 577: Area 5 Chromium Containing Waste Disposal Cells, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

This Corrective Action Decision Document/Corrective Action Plan (CADD/CAP) is for Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 577, “Area 5 Chromium Containing Waste Disposal Cells,” which is located in Area 5 of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). CAU 577 includes five low-level waste cells at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) where buried waste received from Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS), was subsequently determined to contain chromium that exceeded the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure regulatory limit, which would require the waste to carry hazardous waste code D007. To resolve issues related to this alleged violation of hazardous waste regulations, a Settlement Agreement was executed between the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) and the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office on April 25, 2019, which identified agreed-upon mitigation measures. The Settlement Agreement required that the chromium-containing waste received from NFS would be addressed following the closure process laid out in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Molten Salt Reactor Experiment Simulation using Shift/Griffin

The Department of Energy (DOE)’s NEAMS focuses its efforts on the development of advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) tools for light-water reactors (LWRs) and non–LWRs (i.e., molten salt reactors, high-temperature gas reactors, microreactors, and fast reactors). In the previous fiscal year, the Multiphysics Applications Driver Technical Area funded molten salt reactor (MSR) M&S at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to generate multigroup macroscopic cross sections with Shift for a MSRE 2D lattice model in Griffin. In addition, Shift’s capability to calculate gamma dose rates from activated components in the primary exchangers in a molten salt breeder reactor was also demonstrated. In fiscal year 2023, ORNL generated multigroup macroscopic cross sections using Shift for a 3D MSRE core model. MSRE depletion calculations using Griffin were also demonstrated in this fiscal year. For the depletion calculation, one-group microscopic cross sections for the 3D MSRE core were generated using Shift, and the decay transmutation library from ORIGEN was converted to an ISOXML file, which is required as input in Griffin. Several Monte Carlo codes, such as OpenMC and Serpent, were also used to benchmark and supplement multigroup cross sections generated by Shift. Multigroup libraries were generated with 8 and 20 group structures, and the study found the 8-group structure to be more accurate when comparing Griffin results to continuous energy (CE) Monte Carlo results. The average flux from CE Shift calculations is up to ~6% higher than the CE Serpent calculations because of different values applied for the energy released per fission (κ values). The average flux in the fuel salt calculated by Griffin using cross sections generated with Shift agrees well with the reference CE Shift solution; the same is valid for the corresponding Serpent results. The maximum relative error is ~6% and ~2% compared to the CE Shift and Serpent reference solutions, respectively. Meanwhile, the average flux calculated by Griffin in the graphite moderator shows a higher difference in the thermal range when compared to both reference Monte Carlo solutions; this result suggests a need for improvement in cross section generation for the graphite moderator in the thermal range in both Monte Carlo codes. Griffin depletion calculations using cross sections from Shift and Serpent were performed and compared against ORIGEN calculations, and the nuclide densities calculated by Griffin were found to be generally in agreement with those of ORIGEN. Because a different approach was taken to calculate the energy released per fission ( κ values) in Shift and Serpent, a difference in nuclide densities from differences in the average flux was observed between Griffin using Serpent and Shift cross sections. Griffin calculations with Shift cross sections produced higher average flux in the salt than with Serpent cross sections, leading to higher consumption of 235 U and higher production of 135 Xe. For time-dependent depletion calculations, cross sections were generated with Serpent, and Griffin’s results using these cross sections were compared to CE Serpent depletion results, demonstrating good agreement. The average difference in keff between Serpent and Griffin as a function of burnup is about 155 pcm. Similarly, good agreement with small differences up to ~0.5% was also noticed in the nuclide density of 235 U and 135 Xe. More details regarding the methodologies invoked to generate the cross section to make code-to-code comparisons are discussed further in this report. User feedback on Griffin and Shift capabilities that will enhance these calculations is provided in this report for future consideration. The work performed this fiscal year can be extended further for multiphysics coupling of Griffin-Pronghorn/SAM with Mole to study precursor flow and salt chemistry.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Community Benefit Plans - Guidelines and Tips [Slides]

This document provides community benefits plans guidance for state energy programs. It includes best practices, step-by-step guidance, and tips for writing a project overview as well as developing the four required components of a CBP: Engaging Communities and Labor, Investing in America's Workforce, DEIA, and Justice40. It also explains various types of agreements that fall under the CBP umbrella, including community workforce agreements and project labor agreements. The intended audience is both applicants and reviewers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Pebble-Bed Reactors Running In And Transient Modeling Capabilities Demonstration

This study presents a comprehensive benchmarking and verification effort of several thermal-hydraulic and multiphysics capabilities for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) applications. The first part of this effort focuses on the running-in verification of Griffin's multiphysics capabilities, specifically for simulating the evolution of Pebble Bed reactor cores from startup to equilibrium. In the absence of validation data, code-to-code comparisons are conducted with Kugelpy, showing good agreement for key quantities like maximum power density and fresh core k-eigenvalue predictions. However, discrepancies in equilibrium core predictions suggest potential issues with cross sections, underscoring the need for further refinement and evaluation. The HTTF system analysis code benchmark involves RELAP5-3D, SAM, and GAMMA+ to assess their predictive capabilities for HTTF behavior under both normal operation and pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) transient conditions. While there is good agreement in predicting major parameters such as coolant temperature, solid temperature, and flow distribution, discrepancies in transient behavior highlight differences in modeling approaches, nodalizations, and heat transfer models. The HTTF lower plenum CFD benchmark employs nekRS to simulate flow mixing phenomena, successfully capturing relevant flow physics and demonstrating mesh independence in complex geometries. Preliminary results suggest a relatively uniform temperature field but significant unsteadiness in the flow, requiring time-averaging analyses. The GPBR200 system analysis code benchmark uses SAM's core channel and porous media models, incorporating an RCCS loop for decay heat removal. During steady-state and transient conditions, including protected de-pressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC and PLOFC), both models show good agreement in predicting temperature profiles and key parameters. Notably, while the core channel model underpredicts convective heat transfer effects, both models maintain temperatures well below the TRISO fuel safety limit. These benchmarking efforts collectively enhance the predictive capabilities of the tools used in HTGR design and safety analysis, guiding developments to improve their accuracy and applicability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Real-Time Xenon Sensor Analysis Report

Radiotracer release experiments were performed at the Nevada National Security Site in October 2022. The overall experiment was called the RElease ACTivity (REACT) experiment. Twenty-two real-time xenon sensors were deployed for each of four releases. Initial, quick-look analysis results were reported in December 2022. This report reviews the more comprehensive offline analysis effort that was conducted during the remainder of fiscal year 2023 by the Dynamic Networks venture. Improved energy stabilization routines were implemented along with an improved background subtraction routine compared to the original quicklook calculations. The relative detection efficiencies of all real-time sensors were examined. Finally, simulated detector response functions were coupled to two different meteorological models using the measured conditions for the final release (REACT-04) to compare simulated detections with measurements. While there is some agreement between the models and measured data on the detection locations and timing, there is less agreement on the magnitude of those detections. Future sensor and meteorological modeling work will be needed to improve the agreement and to examine the additional releases (REACT-01 through REACT-03).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors Multiphysics Simulation Demonstration and Code Validation

This study presents a comprehensive benchmarking and verification effort of several thermal-hydraulic and multiphysics capabilities for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor applications. The first part of this effort focuses on the running-in verification of Griffin’s multiphysics capabilities, specifically for simulating the evolution of pebble-bed reactor cores from startup to equilibrium. Since Fiscal Year 2024, improvements and enhancements have been implemented in Griffin, including simplifying the process to specify streamlines and developing the online cross-section generation capability. In the absence of validation data, code-to-code comparisons are conducted with kugelpy, showing good agreement for integral quantities like k-eff predictions and predictions for maximum power density. However, accuracy issues are noted for more detailed quantities like the spatial distribution of fission rate densities which will require further work to address. The second part of this report presents an improved System Analysis Module (SAM) core channel model where the effects of cross flow are considered during the pressurized loss of forced cooling transient, resulting in an improved agreement of the predicted pebble temperature with respect to the predictions from the SAM 2D porous media model. Additionally, the wall channeling effect due to variable porosity at the near wall region of the core is also investigated. Furthermore, to demonstrate Griffin’s online cross-section generation capability, a Multiphysics simulation is performed by coupling Griffin to the SAM core channel model. In the third part of the report, as a part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) thermal-hydraulic code validation benchmark activity for a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) is investigated first using the NekRS computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code to study the flow mixing phenomenon in the lower plenum of the facility. Then, code-to-code and code-to-data comparisons are performed for Test PG27, which is a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC) test, using five different codes by six organizations from five countries. The different simulations show good agreements in terms of the general trend but there are differences in some results such as the peak temperatures of different regions and heat removal rate.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Novel 3D Force Sensors for a Cost-Effective 3D Force Plate for Biomechanical Analysis

Three-dimensional force plates are important tools for biomechanics discovery and sports performance practice. However, currently, available 3D force plates lack portability and are often cost-prohibitive. To address this, a recently discovered 3D force sensor technology was used in the fabrication of a prototype force plate. Thirteen participants performed bodyweight and weighted lunges and squats on the prototype force plate and a standard 3D force plate positioned in series to compare forces measured by both force plates and validate the technology. For the lunges, there was excellent agreement between the experimental force plate and the standard force plate in the X-, Y-, and Z-axes (r = 0.950–0.999, p < 0.001). For the squats, there was excellent agreement between the force plates in the Z-axis (r = 0.996, p < 0.001). Across axes and movements, root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 1.17% to 5.36% between force plates. Although the current prototype force plate is limited in sampling rate, the low RMSEs and extremely high agreement in peak forces provide confidence the novel force sensors have utility in constructing cost-effective and versatile use-case 3D force plates.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Survey Operations for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey is a spectroscopic survey of tens of millions of galaxies at 0 < z < 3.5 covering 14,000 sq. deg. of the sky. In its first 1.1 yr of survey operations, it has observed more than 14 million galaxies and 4 million stars. We describe the processes that govern DESI's observations of the 15,000 fields composing the survey. This includes the planning of each night's observations in the afternoon; automatic selection of fields to observe during the night; real-time assessment of field completeness on the basis of observing conditions during each exposure; reduction, redshifting, and quality assurance of each field of targets in the morning following observation; and updates to the list of future targets to observe on the basis of these results. We also compare the performance of the survey with historical expectations and find good agreement. Simulations of the weather and of DESI observations using the real field-selection algorithm show good agreement with the actual observations. After accounting for major unplanned shutdowns, the dark time survey is progressing about 7% faster than forecast, which is good agreement given approximations made in the simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simulation of radon-222 with the GEOS-Chem global model: Emissions, seasonality, and convective transport

Radon-222 (222Rn) is a short-lived radioactive gas naturally emitted from land surface, and has long been used to assess convective transport in atmospheric models. In this study, we simulate 222Rn using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with aims to improve our understanding of 222Rn emissions and surface concentration seasonality, and to characterize convective transport associated with two Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological products, MERRA and GEOS-FP. We evaluate four available 222Rn emission scenarios by comparing model results with surface observations at 51 global surface sites. The default emission scenario in GEOS-Chem yields a moderate agreement with global surface observations (< 70% data within a factor of 2) and a large underestimate of wintertime surface 222Rn concentrations at Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes due to an oversimplified formulation of 222Rn emission fluxes (1 atom cm-2 s-1 over land with a reduction by a factor of 3 under freezing conditions). We compose a new global 222Rn emission scenario based on Zhang et al. (2011) and show its potential to improve simulated surface 222Rn concentrations and seasonality. The regional components of this emission scenario include spatially and temporally varying emission fluxes derived from previous measurements of soil radium content and soil exhalation models, which are key factors to 222Rn emission flux rates. However, large model underestimates of surface 222Rn concentrations still exist in Asia, suggesting unusually high regional 222Rn emissions. We propose a conservative up-scaling factor of 1.2 for 222Rn emission fluxes in China, as also constrained by the observed deposition fluxes of 210Pb (decay daughter of 222Rn). With this modification, the model shows better agreement with the observations in Europe and North America (>80% data within a factor of 2), and reasonable agreement in Asia (close to 70%). Further constraints on 222Rn emissions would require additional observations of surface 222Rn concentrations and emission fluxes in central U.S., Canada, Africa, and Asia. We also compare and assess convective transport in model simulations driven by MERRA and GEOS-FP using observed 222Rn vertical profiles during northern mid-latitude summertime and from two short-term airborne campaigns. While the simulations with both GEOS products are able to capture the observed vertical gradient of 222Rn concentrations in the lower troposphere (0-4 km), neither correctly represents the level of convective detrainment, resulting in biases in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared to GEOS-FP, MERRA leads to stronger convective transport of 222Rn, which is partially compensated by its weaker large-scale vertical advection, resulting in similar global vertical distributions of 222Rn concentrations between the two simulations.

Zhang, Bo↗

Field intercomparison of ice nucleation measurements: the Fifth International Workshop on Ice Nucleation Phase 3 (FIN-03)

Abstract. The third phase of the Fifth International Ice Nucleation Workshop (FIN-03) was conducted at the Storm Peak Laboratory in Steamboat Springs, Colorado, in September 2015 to facilitate the intercomparison of instruments measuring ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the field. Instruments included two online and four offline measurement systems for INPs, which are a subset of those utilized in the laboratory study that comprised the second phase of FIN (FIN-02). The composition of the total aerosols was characterized using the Particle Analysis by Laser Mass Spectrometry (PALMS) and Wideband Integrated Bioaerosol Sensor (WIBS) instruments, and aerosol size distributions were measured by a laser aerosol spectrometer (LAS). The dominant total particle compositions present during FIN-03 were composed of sulfates, organic compounds, and nitrates, as well as particles derived from biomass burning. Mineral-dust-containing particles were ubiquitous throughout and represented 67 % of supermicron particles. Total WIBS fluorescing particle concentrations for particles with diameters of > 0.5 µm were 0.04 ± 0.02 cm−3 (0.1 cm−3 highest; 0.02 cm−3 lowest), typical of the warm season in this region and representing ≈ 9 % of all particles in this size range as a campaign average. The primary focus of FIN-03 was the measurement of INP concentrations via immersion freezing at temperatures > −33 °C. Additionally, some measurements were made in the deposition nucleation regime at these same temperatures, representing one of the first efforts to include both mechanisms within a field campaign. INP concentrations via immersion freezing agreed within factors ranging from nearly 1 to 5 times on average between matched (time and temperature) measurements, and disagreements only rarely exceeded 1 order of magnitude for sampling times coordinated to within 3 h. Comparisons were restricted to temperatures lower than −15 °C due to the limits of detection related to sample volumes and very low INP concentrations. Outliers of up to 2 orders of magnitude occurred between −25 and −18 °C; a better agreement was seen at higher and lower temperatures. Although the 5–10 factor agreement of INP measurements found in FIN-03 aligned with the results of the FIN-02 laboratory comparison phase, giving confidence in progress of this measurement field, this level of agreement still equates to temperature uncertainties of 3.5 to 5 °C that may not be sufficient for numerical cloud modeling applications that utilize INP information. INP activity in the immersion-freezing mode was generally found to be an order of magnitude or more, making it more efficient than in the deposition regime at 95 %–99 % water relative humidity, although this limited data set should be augmented in future efforts. To contextualize the study results, an assessment was made of the composition of INPs during the late-summer to early-fall period of this study inferred through comparison to existing ice nucleation parameterizations and through measurement of the influence of thermal and organic carbon digestion treatments on immersion-freezing ice nucleation activity. Consistent with other studies in continental regions, biological INPs dominated at temperatures of > −20 °C and sometimes colder, while arable dust-like or other organic-influenced INPs were inferred to dominate below −20 °C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. Comparisons of carbon uptake estimates from bottom-up terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to top-down atmospheric inversions help assess how well we understand carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. Previous comparisons have shown varying levels of agreement between bottom-up and top-down approaches, but they have almost exclusively focused on large, aggregated scales (e.g., global or continental), providing limited insights into reasons for the mismatches. Here we explore how consistency, defined as the spread in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates within an ensemble of TBMs or inversions, varies with at finer spatial scales ranging from 1∘×1∘ to the continent of North America. We also evaluate how well consistency informs accuracy in overall NEE estimates by filtering models based on their agreement with the variability, magnitude, and seasonality in observed atmospheric CO2 drawdowns or enhancements. We find that TBMs produce more consistent estimates of NEE for most regions and at most scales relative to inversions. Filtering models using atmospheric CO2 metrics causes ensemble spread to decrease substantially for TBMs, but not for inversions. This suggests that ensemble spread is likely not a reliable measure of the uncertainty associated with the North American carbon balance at any spatial scale. Promisingly, applying atmospheric CO2 metrics leads to a set of models with converging flux estimates across TBMs and inversions. Overall, we show that multiscale assessment of the agreement between bottom-up and top-down NEE estimates, aided by regional-scale observational constraints is a promising path towards identifying fine-scale sources of uncertainty and improving both ensemble consistency and accuracy. These findings help refine our understanding of biospheric carbon balance, particularly at scales relevant for informing regional carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snowfall and snow accumulation during the MOSAiC winter and spring seasons

Data from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition allowed us to investigate the temporal dynamics of snowfall, snow accumulation and erosion in great detail for almost the whole accumulation season (November 2019 to May 2020). We computed cumulative snow water equivalent (SWE) over the sea ice based on snow depth and density retrievals from a SnowMicroPen and approximately weekly measured snow depths along fixed transect paths. We used the derived SWE from the snow cover to compare with precipitation sensors installed during MOSAiC. The data were also compared with ERA5 reanalysis snowfall rates for the drift track. We found an accumulated snow mass of 38 mm SWE between the end of October 2019 and end of April 2020. The initial SWE over first-year ice relative to second-year ice increased from 50 % to 90 % by end of the investigation period. Further, we found that the Vaisala Present Weather Detector 22, an optical precipitation sensor, and installed on a railing on the top deck of research vessel Polarstern, was least affected by blowing snow and showed good agreements with SWE retrievals along the transect. On the contrary, the OTT Pluvio 2 pluviometer and the OTT Parsivel 2 laser disdrometer were largely affected by wind and blowing snow, leading to too high measured precipitation rates. These are largely reduced when eliminating drifting snow periods in the comparison. ERA5 reveals good timing of the snowfall events and good agreement with ground measurements with an overestimation tendency. Retrieved snowfall from the ship-based K a -band ARM zenith radar shows good agreements with SWE of the snow cover and differences comparable to those of ERA5. Based on the results, we suggest the K a -band radar-derived snowfall as an upper limit and the present weather detector on RV Polarstern as a lower limit of a cumulative snowfall range. Based on these findings, we suggest a cumulative snowfall of 72 to 107 mm and a precipitation mass loss of the snow cover due to erosion and sublimation as between 47 % and 68 %, for the time period between 31 October 2019 and 26 April 2020. Extending this period beyond available snow cover measurements, we suggest a cumulative snowfall of 98–114 mm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EMPIRICAL VALIDATION OF MULTI-ZONE BUILDING AND HVAC SYSTEM MODELS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

This study implemented a framework of empirical validation of building energy models under uncertainty to a set of controlled experiments that aim to validate multi-zone building and HVAC system models. Energy models were created through iterative acquisitions of information and data and uses measurement data from various types of sensors as both inputs and as observations to validate predictions. Experimental and modeling uncertainties were quantified and propagated accordingly, and probabilistic accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the agreement between model predictions and observations under uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential uncertainties that will be prioritized to be addressed in the next steps. Current results of two cooling tests show an overall good agreement between predictions and observations on a set of HVAC system outputs despite considerable and influential uncertainty in DX cooling coil COP. Agreements on zone-level responses vary notably among individual rooms, likely because of significant uncertainties in room radiation heat gain and system supply air.

Li, Qi↗

Panel Session 12: Effective Aspects of the 2016 Consent Order between DOE-EM-LA Field Office - NM Environment Department and Identifying Comparable Approaches

This panel focused on the extremely effective 2016 Compliance Order on Consent executed between the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management - Los Alamos Field Office (EM-LA) and the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) and highlights practices and concepts toward developing an environmental compliance agreement that is mutually productive to both the NMED and the DOE. To further demonstrate successful practices, the panel also highlighted another very effective compliance agreement with comparable approaches - the 1993 Savannah River Site (SRS) Federal Facility Agreement (FFA) executed between DOE, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). EM-LA, NMED, SRS, and SCDHEC representatives provided attendees an opportunity to understand and compare extremely effective approaches to regulatory compliance across the complex.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗