Uncertainty Driven Dynamics for Active Learning of Interatomic Potentials.
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A wide range of machine learning problems, including astronomical inference about galaxy clusters, scene classification, parametric statistical inference, and predictions of public opinion, can be well-modeled as learning a function on (samples from) distributions. This project explores problems in learning such functions via kernel methods, particularly for large-scale problems. When learning from large numbers of distributions, the computation of typical methods scales between quadratically and cubically, and so they are not amenable to large datasets. We investigate the approach of approximate embeddings into Euclidean spaces such that inner products in the embedding space approximate kernel values between the source distributions. We first improve the understanding of the workhorse methods of random Fourier features: we show that of the two approaches in common usage, one is strictly superior. We then present a new embedding for a class of information-theoretic distribution distances, and evaluate it and existing embeddings on several real-world applications.
Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.
Abstract not provided.
The goal of this project was to develop, demonstrate, and provide a new capability to achieve greater physical fidelity in large-scale simulations, rather than the usual brute-force increases in the number of mesh elements or particles. Transport in nanoporous media, critical to hydrocarbon extraction from tight shale formations, is affected by molecular-level interactions. Several coarse-scale Lattice Boltzmann model (LBM) parameters cannot be directly computed, so instead we calibrate them to molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, by building emulators that mimic MD and LBM behavior and then training an upscaler. The resulting machine learning (ML)-based scale-bridging framework is up to 7 orders of magnitude faster than direct MD.
Abstract not provided.
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Abstract not provided.