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At least 181 records · Page 10

MACCS Theory Manual

This report describes the models of the MACCS computer code as presented in MACCS Version 3.10.0. The purpose of MACCS is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. From a given release of radioactive material into the atmosphere, MACCS estimates the extent and magnitude of radiological contamination, offsite doses, protective actions, socioeconomic impacts and costs, and health effects. Since the weather at the time of an accident is not predictable, MACCS supports various sampling options to run a representative set of simulations to evaluate weather variability. MACCS simulates atmospheric transport with a straight-line Gaussian plume segment model. From the estimated air and ground concentrations, MACCS models dose projections through several dose exposure pathways. These exposures can be offset by protective actions during the emergency response and long-term recovery of the accident. MACCS users directly specify the evacuation and sheltering area, while other protective actions (e.g., relocation, farmland restrictions, decontamination) are based on user-specified dose or concentration limits. While protective actions help reduce dose accumulation, they also cause social and economic impacts. MACCS models the extent of displaced individuals and land contamination, and the cost of offsite property damage, economic disruptions, and various accident expenditures caused by protective actions. Finally, from the dose accumulation, MACCS estimates early and stochastic health effects according to dose-response models. The purpose of consequence analyses is to be able to understand and estimate the impact of nuclear accidents. Consequence analysis is an essential tool to inform determinations of adequate protection of the public, to understand nuclear power hazards, to measure the value of regulations, and to help us appreciate the importance of nuclear safety. As such, MACCS has a variety of regulatory uses including environmental analyses (10 CFR 51.53, 52.47), regulatory cost-benefit analyses, backfit analyses (10 CFR 50.109), consequence analysis studies such as SOARCA (NUREG-1935), Level 3 PRA studies, and risk-informing of emergency planning (10 CFR 50 App. E and 50.47). This report updates the previous MACCS theory manual (NUREG/CR-4691 Vol. 2; Chanin, Sprung, Ritchie, & Jow, 1990) and accompanies the MACCS User's Guide (SAND-2021-1588) that describes the use and input requirements of the graphical user interface of MACCS known as WinMACCS. The MACCS User's Guide is also a reference guide that describes data input file formats, describes various software components in the MACCS code suite, and provides a set of example tutorials for running WinMACCS. Also, soon to be published is a MACCS input parameter guidance report (NUREG/CR-7270) that provides technical bases for commonly used MACCS input values. This page left blank

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantitative Assessment for Advanced Reactor Radioisotope Screening Utilizing a Heat Pipe Reactor Inventory

This report documents a method for the quantitative identification of radionuclides of potential interest for accident consequence analysis involving advanced nuclear reactors. Based on previous qualitative assessments of radionuclide inventories for advanced reactors coupled with the review of a radiological inventory developed for a heat pipe reactor, a 1 Ci activity airborne release was calculated for 137 radionuclides using the MACCS 4.1 code suite. Several assumptions regarding release conditions were made and discussed herein. The potential release of a heat pipe reactor inventory was also modeled following the same assumptions. Results provide an estimation of the relative EARLY and CHRONC phase dose contribution from advanced reactor radionuclides and are normalized to doses from equivalent releases of I-131 and Cs-137, respectively. Ultimately, a list of 69 radionuclides with EARLY or CHRONC dose contributions at least 1/100th that of I-131 or Cs-137, respectively – 48 of which are currently considered for LWR consequence analyses – was identified of being of potential importance for analyses involving a heat pipe reactor.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Status Report on Regulatory Criteria Applicable to the Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)

Although the interest in the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in nuclear energy is increasing rapidly, at present their implementation is limited. This rapid increase in interest is not surprising considering that implementing AI and ML technology would allow for continuous monitoring, facilitate the implementation of predictive maintenance with optimized staffing plans, enable automation and autonomy opportunities that could drastically reduce fixed operation and maintenance costs, and provide training for operations and maintenance. Other industries are using AI for construction, and in the nuclear arena AI could provide great benefit in decommissioning activities. The ability of AI and ML to operate in real time vastly increases their potential impact. Before AI can be used in design, operations, or as a regulatory tool, the specifics on the regulations applicable to the use of AI for nuclear power applications need to be established. The difficulty is that the specific use cases will dictate the applicability of regulations. For example, even within the application domain associated with operations, the regulations might vary if the AI is used to create a virtual reference for plant operations or is used for training, optimization of maintenance intervals, prioritization of maintenance activities, etc. Different still is if the AI is to be used for design or setting technical specifications, which will introduce additional requirements. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing reviews are based on an applicant’s design meeting its performance assessment based on (1) safety goals and objectives, (2) deterministic and/or probabilistic analysis of accident scenarios, and (3) quantitative assessment of design alternatives against the safety goals and objectives using accepted engineering tools, methodologies, and performance criteria. The current regulatory framework does not explicitly address AI or autonomous control. However, as implementing AI technology will require the use of a digital platform, it must meet the requirements of an instrumentation and control (I&C) system. The regulatory requirements for AI, which will be incorporated into the I&C system, will be very dependent on how it is used (i.e., its functionality, safety classification, etc.). The licensing process is primarily risk-based with the identification of components and systems as nonsafety, important to safety, or safety related. A risk-informed approach allows further gradation of components and systems based on risk metrics such as core damage frequency or large early release fractions. Thus, the use cases and the risk categorization of impacted systems and components will determine the regulatory requirements. Regardless of how AI is used it presents new opportunities for risk-informing operating, maintenance, and regulatory decisions. Trustworthiness, transparency, and the ability to validate and verify the results will be paramount in showing that the systems and plant still meet their performance requirements. This report describes the results of research to identify regulatory implications of AI technologies and their uses. Specifically, this report reviews current regulatory guidance relevant to the application of AI for design (including design changes or new designs including advanced reactors), construction, operations, training, maintenance, research, testing, and as a regulatory tool. AI can be automated at different levels from purely informative purposes to autonomous controls. The focus of this review included determination of constraints on the application of AI technology, identification of any regulatory gaps or uncertainties, and clarification of anticipated technical basis information likely to be important for regulatory acceptance of these technologies. Currently, any use of AI at nuclear power plants is focused on nonsafety-related applications. The NRC and other regulatory bodies are evaluating providing guidance to address gaps rather than create new regulations to address the use of AI and ML. This approach seems to be the best to encourage AI development without adding regulatory uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improved Understanding of Airborne Release Fraction and Respirable Fraction from Postulated Free-Fall Spill in DOE Nuclear Facilities (Annual Project Summary Report for NSRD-38)

The two-year experimental project has been completed to update the Airborne Release and Respirable Fraction (ARF and RF) estimates from the free-fall spills of liquid waste simulants. The objectives of the project at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) are to: (1) establish a technically defensible bounding approach for a reasonably conservative limit to the fall height used in the Ballinger correlation for the ARF, such that spill heights for near-water density liquid solutions above a critical height result in the same value of the ARF; and (2) provide a revised technical basis and data to support the ARF and RF correlation for free-fall liquid spills of heights from 1 to 10 meters. After peer review, these data and associated correlation will be available for consideration in a revision to DOE-HDBK-3010, Airborne Release Fractions/Rates and Respirable Fractions for Nonreactor Nuclear Facilities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Development and Refinement of Bison Models for Higher Burnup Application

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) is an international research organization funded by organizations in the energy and government sectors. The company conducts research to tackle the energy challenges of its member organizations. In support of the U.S. nuclear industry, EPRI and Idaho National Laboratory were awarded a U.S. Department of Energy Technology Commercialization Fund to develop a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) analysis tool. This tool was developed to support burnup extension activities by supplementing the existing capabilities of operators of existing large light-water reactor plants. The tool couples INL developed codes Bison and RELAP5-3D for advanced simulation of LOCA behavior. The project consists of seven major tasks, one of which is the development and refinement of Bison models for higher burnup applications. This task is broken down into six targeted areas of development and refinement including: formation of high burnup structure, fuel fracture and pulverization, transient fission gas release, axial gas communication within a fuel rod, cladding ballooning and burst, and axial fuel relocation. This report summarizes the models for both the fuel and cladding in Bison for high burnup application, identifies the areas of development and refinement necessary to enhance the Bison capabilities to be used in the coupled simulation tool with RELAP5-3D. Integration and regression testing to demonstrate proper implementation of the new features in Bison is highlighted.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Numerical investigation of the AP1000 response following loss-of-coolant accident using PCTRAN and CFD to support R&D of SMRs

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) present a promising solution for the future of sustainable energy, offering advantages such as reduced waste generation, advanced passive safety features, and potential cost efficiencies. Ongoing research focuses on the design and development of SMRs, addressing challenges through numerical simulations and experimental test data. Given that many next-generation reactors are first-of-a-kind (FOK), current operational reactors serve as valuable benchmarks for understanding various thermal-hydraulic phenomena during postulated design basis accidents (DBAs), including loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA), main steam line breaks (MSLB), and steam generator tube ruptures (SGTR). This study employs the AP1000 model Personal Computer Transient Analyzer (PCTRAN) to simulate reactor responses to small-break LOCA scenarios, specifically analyzing break sizes of 2 and 10 inches. Additionally, ANSYS FLUENT software is utilized to assess containment responses to large-break LOCAs, focusing on the quantification of decay heat removal via natural convection. Verification of the PCTRAN results is achieved using Westinghouse data, with CFD results corroborating the findings. The outcomes demonstrate strong agreement with Westinghouse data, confirming the accuracy of the simulations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Potassium Iodide Implementation Strategies for Emergency Preparedness and Response

This study evaluates the effectiveness of potassium iodide (KI) distribution strategies in mitigating exposure to radioiodine during severe nuclear power plant accidents. This analysis quantitatively compares various KI distribution methods (pre-distributed versus stockpiles), including scenarios with and without KI administration. The results indicate that differences in distribution strategies impact the projected thyroid dose by at least an order of magnitude. The results also indicate that the timing of KI administration is critical, as expected. For scenarios involving delayed releases of significant quantities of radionuclides, evacuation is the most effective protection strategy regardless of KI distribution method. For scenarios involving rapid releases, retrieving KI from stockpiles can have a detrimental effect. Pre-distributed KI is potentially the most effective approach when used as a supplement to evacuation and sheltering. However, these model results are based on idealized conditions for KI distribution and administration; the actual benefits of KI prophylaxis are likely to be less than estimated in this report due to many variables. The results highlight the importance of considering the cost and rigor of different distribution programs and public compliance with emergency instructions. This report includes suggested research to explore KI distribution plans for advanced reactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of general-aviation accidents using ATC radar records

It is pointed out that general aviation aircraft usually do not carry flight recorders, and in accident investigations the only available data may come from the Air Traffic Control (ATC) records. A description is presented of a technique for deriving time-histories of aircraft motions from ATC radar records. The employed procedure involves a smoothing of the raw radar data. The smoothed results, in combination with other available information (meteorological data and aircraft aerodynamic data) are used to derive the expanded set of motion time-histories. Applications of the considered analytical methods are related to different types of aircraft, such as light piston-props, executive jets, and commuter turboprops, as well as different accident situations, such as takeoff, climb-out, icing, and deep stall.

Wingrove, R. C.↗

NASA: Model development for human factors interfacing

The results of an intensive literature review in the general topics of human error analysis, stress and job performance, and accident and safety analysis revealed no usable techniques or approaches for analyzing human error in ground or space operations tasks. A task review model is described and proposed to be developed in order to reduce the degree of labor intensiveness in ground and space operations tasks. An extensive number of annotated references are provided.

Smith, L. L.↗

Lessons Learned from Seven Space Shuttle Missions

Much can be learned from well-written descriptions of the technical and organizational factors that lead to an accident. Subsequent analysis by third parties of investigation reports and associated evidence collected during the investigations can lead to additional insight. Much can also be learned from documented close calls that do not result in loss of life or a spacecraft, such as the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit software anomaly, the SOHO mission interruption, and the NEAR burn anomaly. Seven space shuttle incidents fall into the latter category: Rendezvous Target Failure On STS-41B; Rendezvous Radar Anomaly and Trajectory Dispersion-STS-32 ;Rendezvous Lambert Targeting Anomaly-STS-49; Rendezvous Lambert Targeting Anomaly-STS-51; Zero Doppler Steering Maneuver Anomaly-STS-59; Excessive Propellant Consumption During Rendezvous-STS-69; Global Positioning System Receiver and Associated Shuttle Flight Software Anomalies-STS-91 Procedural work-arounds or software changes prevented them from threatening mission success. Extensive investigations, which included the independent recreation of the anomalies by multiple Shuttle Program organizations, were the key to determining the cause, accurately assessing risk, and identifying software and software process improvements. Lessons learned from these incidents not only validated long-standing operational best practices, but serve to promote discussion and mentoring among Program personnel and are applicable to future space flight programs.

Goodman, John↗

Failure Analysis at the Kennedy Space Center

History has shown that failures occur in every engineering endeavor, and what we learn from those failures contributes to the knowledge base to safely complete future missions. The necessity of failure analysis is at its apex at the end of one aged program (i.e. Shuttle) and at the beginning of a new and untested program (i.e. Constellation). The information that we gain through failure analysis corrects the deficiencies in the current vehicle to make the next generation of vehicles more efficient and safe. The Failure Analysis and Materials Evaluation section in the Materials Science Division at the Kennedy Space Center performs metallurgical, mechanical, electrical, and non-metallic failure analysis and accident investigations on both flight hardware and ground support equipment (GSE) for the Shuttle, International Space Station, Constellation, and Launch Services Programs. This presentation will explore a variety of failure case studies at KSC and the lessons learned that can be applied in future programs.

Salazar, Victoria L.↗

Analysis of loss-of-coolant accident for a fast-spectrum lithium-cooled nuclear reactor for space-power applications

A two-dimensional, transient, heat-transfer analysis was made to determine the temperature response in the core of a conceptual space-power nuclear reactor following a total loss of reactor coolant. With loss of coolant from the reactor, the controlling mode of heat transfer is thermal radiation. In one of the schemes considered for removing decay heat from the core, it was assumed that the 4 pi shield which surrounds the core acts as a constant-temperature sink (temperature, 700 K) for absorption of thermal radiation from the core. Results based on this scheme of heat removal show that melting of fuel in the core is possible only when the emissivity of the heat-radiating surfaces in the core is less than about 0.40. In another scheme for removing the afterheat, the core centerline fuel pin was replaced by a redundant, constant temperature, coolant channel. Based on an emissivity of 0.20 for all material surfaces in the core, the calculated maximum fuel temperature for this scheme of heat removal was 2840 K, or about 90 K less than the melting temperature of the UN fuel.

Turney, G. E.↗