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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Can artificial intelligence and data-driven machine learning models match or even replace process-driven hydrologic models for streamflow simulation?: A case study of four watersheds with different hydro-climatic regions across the CONUS

With recent developments in computational techniques, Data-driven Machine Learning Models (DMLs) have shown great potential in simulating streamflow and capturing the rainfall-runoff relationship in given watersheds, which are traditionally fulfilled by Process-based Hydrologic Models (PHMs). There are debates on whether the DMLs can outperform and possibly replace the classical PHMs for streamflow simulation and river forecasting, but no clear conclusions have been made. This study aims to investigate whether the newer DMLs have any potential in further improving the simulation accuracy of classical PHMs, and vice versa. To do this, we compared a few popular PHMs and DMLs over four watersheds across the Continental US (CONUS) that are associated with different input, climate, and regional conditions. A total of five hydrologic models were chosen, including (1) two classical lumped models, i.e., the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) and Xinanjiang (XAJ); (2) one modern distributed model, termed Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST); (3) and two DMLs including an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and a deep learning model, termed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). Our results demonstrated that the DMLs still significantly biased when using the baseline input scenario with the PHMs. However, the DMLs fed with delayed input scenarios had great potential and can reach high simulation accuracy. The DMLs, especially the ANN, outperformed other employed models under the rainfall-runoff relationship in which rainfall dominantly drives. Furthermore, the DMLs also showed better performance in the high-flow regime, while the PHMs had a better performance for the low-flow regime, implying both PHMs and DMLs have their own merits and are worthy of joint development. In general, our study indicated a great potential of using DMLs to simulate streamflow, but further studies are still needed to verify the transferability and scalability of DMLs in large-scale experiments, such as the Distributed Model Intercomparison Projects 1&2 conducted by National Weather Services but to compare modern DMLs and PHMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a model predictive controller enabling anticipatory control strategies for a heat-pipe system

To support the reliable and resilient operation of modular reactors and microreactors, anticipatory control strategies have been proposed for achieving faster-than-real-time predictions and decision-making capabilities in anticipation of potential anomalies, including setpoint changes and cyber incidents. Here this work presents how anticipatory control strategies can be implemented via model predictive control (MPC) of a single heat pipe’s temperature. Considering the uncertainty in developing and applying MPC, this work evaluates MPC performance given three different model forms: a linear response surface model, an artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive model with exogenous input (ARX). This work also evaluates the impacts of different input biases and variance on MPC performance in order to account for potential sensor reading variations due to cyber incidents. We observe that nonparametric models such as the ANN and ARX result in more fluctuated control actions compared to the MPC applied to the linear response surface model. However, when the cyber incidents are of a large magnitude, the linear response surface model produces smaller feasible regions than the nonparametric models under identical constraints.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient bifurcation and tabulation of multi-dimensional combustion manifolds using deep mixture of experts: An a priori study

This work describes and validates an approach for autonomously bifurcating turbulent combustion man-ifolds to divide regression tasks amongst specialized artificial neural networks (ANNs). This approach relies on the mixture of experts (MoE) framework, where each neural network is trained to be specialized in a given portion of the input space. The assignment of different input regions to the experts is determined by a gating network, which is a neural network classifier. In some previous studies, it has been demonstrated that bifurcation of a complex combustion manifold and fitting different ANNs for each part leads to better fits or faster inference speeds. However, the manner of bifurcation in these studies was based on heuristic approaches or clustering techniques. In contrast, the proposed technique enables automatic bifurcation using non-linear planes in high-dimensional turbulent combustion manifolds that are often associated with complex behavior due to different dominating physics in various zones. Furthermore, the proposed concept is validated using 4-dimensional (4D) and 5D flamelet tables, showing that the errors obtained with a given network size, or conversely the network size required to achieve a given accuracy, is considerably reduced. The effect of the number of experts on inference speed is also investigated, showing that by increasing the number of experts from 1 to 8, the inference time can be approximately reduced by a factor of two. Moreover, it is shown that the MoE approach divides the input manifold in a physically intuitive manner, suggesting that the MoE framework can elucidate high-dimensional datasets in a physically meaningful way.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using soil library hyperspectral reflectance and machine learning to predict soil organic carbon: Assessing potential of airborne and spaceborne optical soil sensing

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key variable to determine soil functioning, ecosystem services, and global carbon cycles. Spectroscopy, particularly optical hyperspectral reflectance coupled with machine learning, can provide rapid, efficient, and cost-effective quantification of SOC. However, how to exploit soil hyperspectral reflectance to predict SOC concentration, and the potential performance of airborne and satellite data for predicting surface SOC at large scales remain relatively underknown. Here, this study utilized a continental-scale soil laboratory spectral library (37,540 full-pedon 350–2500 nm reflectance spectra with SOC concentration of 0–780 g·kg –1 across the US) to thoroughly evaluate seven machine learning algorithms including Partial-Least Squares Regression (PLSR), Random Forest (RF), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Ridge, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) along with four preprocessed spectra, i.e. original, vector normalization, continuum removal, and first-order derivative, to quantify SOC concentration. Furthermore, by using the coupled soil-vegetation-atmosphere radiative transfer model, we simulated twelve airborne and spaceborne hyper/multi-spectral remote sensing data from surface bare soil laboratory spectra to evaluate their potential for estimating SOC concentration of surface bare soils. Results show that LSTM achieved best predictive performance of quantifying SOC concentration for the whole data sets (R 2 = 0.96, RMSE = 30.81 g·kg –1 ), mineral soils (SOC ≤ 120 g·kg –1 , R 2 = 0.71, RMSE = 10.60 g·kg –1 ), and organic soils (SOC > 120 g·kg –1 , R 2 = 0.78, RMSE = 62.31 g·kg –1 ). Spectral data preprocessing, particularly the first-order derivative, improved the performance of PLSR, RF, Ridge, KNN, and ANN, but not LSTM or CNN. We found that the SOC models of mineral and organic soils should be distinguished given their distinct spectral signatures. Finally, we identified that the shortwave infrared is vital for airborne and spaceborne hyperspectral sensors to monitor surface SOC. This study highlights the high accuracy of LSTM with hyperspectral/multispectral data to mitigate a certain level of noise (soil moisture <0.4 m 3 ·m –3 , green leaf area < 0.3 m 2 ·m –2 , plant residue <0.4 m 2 ·m –2 ) for quantifying surface SOC concentration. Forthcoming satellite hyperspectral missions like Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) have a high potential for future global soil carbon monitoring, while high-resolution satellite multispectral fusion data can be an alternative.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Filtered CFD-DEM Drag Model with Multiscale Markers Using an Artificial Neural Network and Nonlinear Regression

Here, the accuracy of coarse-grained Euler-Lagrangian simulations of fluidized beds heavily depends on the mesoscale drag models to account for the influences of the unresolved sub-grid structures. Traditional filtered drag models are regressed with mesoscale markers such as voidage and slip velocities. In this research, a filtered drag was regressed with both mesoscale and macro-scale markers using fine grid Computational Fluid Dynamics - Discrete Element Method (CFD-DEM) simulations. The traditional non-linear regression method was compared with machine learning regression using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) implemented in PyTorch and coupled with MFiX. The new drag showed higher accuracy than the Wen-Yu drag and another filtered drag derived from the two-fluid model. The nonlinear regression shows slightly better results than ANN regression in cases with similar R 2 values. The utilization of the gas inlet velocity as an additional macro-scale marker reduced the errors by up to 55.3% in the tested cases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Free Energies for Complex Condensed-Phase Reactions Using an Artificial Neural Network Corrected DFTB/MM Methodology

Semiempirical methods like density functional tight-binding (DFTB) allow extensive phase space sampling, making it possible to generate free energy surfaces of complex reactions in condensed-phase environments. Such a high efficiency often comes at the cost of reduced accuracy, which may be improved by developing a specific reaction parametrization (SRP) for the particular molecular system. Thiol–disulfide exchange is a nucleophilic substitution reaction that occurs in a large class of proteins. Its proper description requires a high-level ab initio method, while DFT-GAA and hybrid functionals were shown to be inadequate, and so is DFTB due to its DFT-GGA descent. We develop an SRP for thiol–disulfide exchange based on an artificial neural network (ANN) implementation in the DFTB+ software and compare its performance to that of a standard SRP approach applied to DFTB. Furthermore, as an application, we use both new DFTB-SRP as components of a QM/MM scheme to investigate thiol–disulfide exchange in two molecular complexes: a solvated model system and a blood protein. Demonstrating the strengths of the methodology, highly accurate free energy surfaces are generated at a low cost, as the augmentation of DFTB with an ANN only adds a small computational overhead.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Self-Diffusion Prediction for Lennard-Jones Fluids in Pores

Predicting the diffusion coefficient of fluids under nanoconfinement is important for many applications including the extraction of shale gas from kerogen and product turnover in porous catalysts. Due to the large number of important variables, including pore shape and size, fluid temperature and density, and the fluid–wall interaction strength, simulating diffusion coefficients using molecular dynamics (MD) in a systematic study could prove to be prohibitively expensive. Here, we use machine learning models trained on a subset of MD data to predict the self-diffusion coefficients of Lennard-Jones fluids in pores. Our MD data set contains 2280 simulations of ideal slit pore, cylindrical pore, and hexagonal pore geometries. We use the forward feature selection method to determine the most useful features (i.e., descriptors) for developing an artificial neutral network (ANN) model with an emphasis on easily acquired features. Our model shows good predictive ability with a coefficient of determination (i.e., R 2 ) of ~0.99 and a mean squared error of ~2.9 × 10 –5 . Finally, we propose an alteration to our feature set that will allow the ANN model to be applied to nonideal pore geometries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning-Based Upscaling of Finite-Size Molecular Dynamics Diffusion Simulations for Binary Fluids

Molecular diffusion coefficients calculated using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations suffer from finite-size (i.e., finite box size and finite particle number) effects. Results from finite-sized MD simulations can be upscaled to infinite simulation size by applying a correction factor. For self-diffusion of single-component fluids, this correction has been well-studied by many researchers including Yeh and Hummer (YH); for binary fluid mixtures, a modified YH correction was recently proposed for correcting MD-predicted Maxwell–Stephan (MS) diffusion rates. In this study we use both empirical and machine learning methods to identify improvements to the finite-size correction factors for both self-diffusion and MS diffusion of binary Lennard-Jones (LJ) fluid mixtures. Using artificial neural networks (ANNs), the error in the corrected LJ fluid diffusion is reduced by an order of magnitude versus existing YH corrections, and the ANN models perform well for mixtures with large dissimilarities in size and interaction energies where the YH correction proves insufficient.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeled Surface-Atmosphere Fluxes From Paired Sites in the Upper Great Lakes Region Using Neural Networks

The eddy covariance (EC) method is one of the most widely used approaches to quantify surface-atmosphere fluxes. However, scaling up from a single EC tower to the landscape remains an open challenge. To address this, we used 63 site years of data to examine simulated annual and growing season sums of carbon fluxes from three paired land-cover type sites of corn, restored-prairie, and switchgrass ecosystems. This was also done across the landscape by modeling fluxes using different land-cover type input data. An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to model net ecosystem exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (R eco ), and gross primary production (GPP) at one paired site using environmental observations from the second site only. With a mean spatial separation of 11 km between paired sites, we were able to model annual sums of NEE, R eco , and GPP with uncertainties of 20%, 22%, and 8%, respectively, relative to observation sums. When considering the growing season only, model uncertainties were 17%, 22%, and 9%, respectively for the three flux terms. We also show that ANN models can estimate sums of R eco and GPP fluxes without needing the constraint of similar land-cover-type, with annual uncertainties of 12% and 10%. These results provide new insights to scaling up observations from one EC site beyond the footprint of the EC tower to multiple land-cover types across the landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Ring Current Proton Fluxes Using Artificial Neural Network and Van Allen Probe Measurements

Abstract Terrestrial ring current dynamics are a critical part of the near‐space environment, in that they directly drive geomagnetic field variations that control particle drifts, and define geomagnetic storms. The present study aims to specify a global and time‐varying distribution of ring current proton using geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters with their history as input. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) model to reproduce proton fluxes measured by the Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment instrument onboard Van Allen Probes. By choosing optimal feature parameters and their history length, the model results show a high correlation and a small error between model specifications and satellite measurements. The modeled results well capture energy‐dependent proton dynamics in association with geomagnetic storms, including inward radial diffusion, acceleration and decay. Our ANN model produces proton fluxes with their corresponding 3D spatiotemporal variations, capturing the latitudinal distribution and local time asymmetry that are consistent with observations and that can further inform theory.

Li, Jinxing↗
DOE OSTI2023

High–Resolution Maps of Near–Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning

Permafrost soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and are locally important because they regulate the hydrologic flux from uplands to rivers. Furthermore, degradation of permafrost soils causes land surface subsidence, damaging infrastructure that is crucial for local communities. Regional and hemispherical maps of permafrost are too coarse to resolve distributions at a scale relevant to assessments of infrastructure stability or to illuminate geomorphic impacts of permafrost thaw. Here we train machine learning models to generate meter–scale maps of near–surface permafrost for three watersheds in the discontinuous permafrost region. The models were trained using ground truth determinations of near–surface permafrost presence from measurements of soil temperature and electrical resistivity. We trained three classifiers: extremely randomized trees (ERTr), support vector machines (SVM), and an artificial neural network (ANN). Model uncertainty was determined using k–fold cross validation, and the modeled extents of near–surface permafrost were compared to the observed extents at each site. At–a–site near–surface permafrost distributions predicted by the ERTr produced the highest accuracy (70%–90%). However, the transferability of the ERTr to the sites outside of the training data set was poor, with accuracies ranging from 50% to 77%. The SVM and ANN models had lower accuracies for at–a–site prediction (70%–83%), yet they had greater accuracy when transferred to the non–training site (62%–78%). These models demonstrate the potential for integrating high–resolution spatial data and machine learning models to develop maps of near–surface permafrost extent at resolutions fine enough to assess infrastructure vulnerability and landscape morphology influenced by permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of high-dielectric constant compounds from statistical design

Abstract The discovery of high-dielectric materials is crucial to increasing the efficiency of electronic devices and batteries. Here, we report three previously unexplored materials with very high dielectric constants (69 < ϵ < 101) and large band gaps (2.9 < E g (eV) < 5.5) obtained by screening materials databases using statistical optimization algorithms aided by artificial neural networks (ANN). Two of these new dielectrics are mixed-anion compounds (Eu 5 SiCl 6 O 4 and HoClO) and are shown to be thermodynamically stable against common semiconductors via phase diagram analysis. We also uncovered four other materials with relatively large dielectric constants (20 < ϵ < 40) and band gaps (2.3 < E g (eV) < 2.7). While the ANN training-data are obtained from the Materials Project, the search-space consists of materials from the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD)—demonstrating a successful implementation of cross-database materials design. Overall, we report the dielectric properties of 17 materials calculated using ab initio calculations, that were selected in our design workflow. The dielectric materials with high-dielectric properties predicted in this work open up further experimental research opportunities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of machine learning techniques to optimize the analysis of plutonium surrogate material via a portable LIBS device

The utilization of machine learning techniques has become commonplace in the analysis of optical emission spectra. These methods are often limited to variants of principal components analysis (PCA), partial-least squares (PLS), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). A plethora of other techniques exist and are well established in the world of data science, yet are seldom investigated for their use in spectroscopic problems. In this study, machine learning techniques were used to analyze optical emission spectra of laser-induced plasma from ceria pellets doped with silicon in order to predict silicon content. Additionally, a boosted regression ensemble model was created, and its predictive accuracy was compared to that of traditional PCA, PLS, and ANN regression models. Boosted regression tree ensembles yielded fits with R-squared (R2) values as high as 0.964 and mean-squared errors of prediction (MSEPs) as low as 0.074, providing the most accurate predictive model. Neural networks performed with slightly lower R2 values and higher MSEPs compared to the ensemble methods, thus indicating susceptibility to overfitting.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning prediction of self-diffusion in Lennard-Jones fluids

In this work, different machine learning (ML) methods were explored for the prediction of self-diffusion in Lennard-Jones (LJ) fluids. Using a database of diffusion constants obtained from the molecular dynamics simulation literature, multiple Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Net (ANN) regression models were developed and characterized. The role and improved performance of feature engineering coupled to the RF model development was also addressed. The performance of these different ML models was evaluated by comparing the prediction error to an existing empirical relationship used to describe LJ fluid diffusion. It was found that the ANN regression models provided superior prediction of diffusion in comparison to the existing empirical relationships.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Symbolic regression development of empirical equations for diffusion in Lennard-Jones fluids

Symbolic regression (SR) with a multi-gene genetic program has been used to elucidate new empirical equations describing diffusion in Lennard-Jones (LJ) fluids. Some examples include equations to predict self-diffusion in pure LJ fluids and equations describing the finite-size correction for self-diffusion in binary LJ fluids. The performance of the SR-obtained equations was compared to that of both the existing empirical equations in the literature and to the results from artificial neural net (ANN) models recently reported. It is found that the SR equations have improved predictive performance in comparison to the existing empirical equations, even though employing a smaller number of adjustable parameters, but show an overall reduced performance in comparison to more extensive ANNs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient data acquisition and training of collisional-radiative model artificial neural network surrogates through adaptive parameter space sampling

Abstract Effective plasma transport modeling of magnetically confined fusion devices relies on having an accurate understanding of the ion composition and radiative power losses of the plasma. Generally, these quantities can be obtained from solutions of a collisional-radiative (CR) model at each time step within a plasma transport simulation. However, even compact, approximate CR models can be computationally onerous to evaluate, and in-situ evaluation of these models within a larger plasma transport code can lead to a rigid bottleneck. As a way to bypass this bottleneck, we propose deploying artificial neural network (ANN) surrogates to allow rapid evaluation of the necessary plasma quantities. However, one issue with training an accurate ANN surrogate is the reliance on a sufficiently large and representative training and validation data set, which can be time-consuming to generate. In this work we explore a data-driven active learning and training routine to allow autonomous adaptive sampling of the problem parameter space to ensure a sufficiently large and meaningful set of training data is assembled for the network training. As a result, we can demonstrate approximately order-of-magnitude savings in required training data samples to produce an accurate surrogate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗