Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “2050”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Biopolymer Concrete

Cement production for concrete has been responsible for ~7–8% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and nearly equally contribution for steel production processes (EPA, 2020). In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, a novel solution has to be investigated. This project aims to develop fundamental mechanistic understanding and experimental characterization to create a 3D printable biopolymer concrete using plant-based polyurethane as an innovative and sustainable alternative for Portland cement concrete, with significantly low carbon footprint. Future construction will utilize the advances in digital additive manufacturing (3D printing) to produce optimal geometries with a minimum waste of materials. Understanding the polymerization process, factors impacting the composite rheology, and the structural behavior of this biopolymer concrete will enable us to engineer the next generation of concrete structures with low carbon footprint. This project aims to improve the nation’s ability to control Greenhouse Gas emission neutrality for the set goal of 2050 via introducing a structurally viable bio-based polymer concrete.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact of Transport Electrification Demand and Charging Schedules on Electricity Markets and Nuclear Generators

As the U.S. pursues deep decarbonization targets, electric vehicles (EVs) are likely to become a major driver of demand growth and a major determinant of daily demand patterns. This study analyzes a possible future ERCOT-like electricity grid, and examines the impact of different types of EV charging schedules on grid and market outcomes. This analysis demonstrates the significant impact of EV charging patterns on capacity expansion simulations. Even without EVs, the overall daily demand profile in a market can have significant impacts on prices and grid stability in that system, especially if non-dispatchable renewable generators (e.g. wind and solar) make up a significant fraction of the generation mix. EV demand will not necessarily follow this preexisting demand profile, so its daily trends may significantly change what generation portfolio would optimally serve the system. Furthermore, the effects of EV demand can alter the profitability of different types of units, by altering the frequency of market events like extreme-demand hours or zero-price hours. These effects are explored in this study. The EV demand levels were derived from MARKAL simulations of the West-South-Central North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region for the year 2050, using a carbon tax of $100/ton. The baseline MARKAL simulation forecasted that 23% of the region’s annual electricity demand in 2050 would be attributable to EVs, and broke out demand projections for EV and non-EV end-use in that year. To model lower EV penetration into the system, an additional case was explored which assumed that EVs only achieved 75% of the demand level projected by MARKAL.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deep Electrification Analysis: The Role of the U.S. Power Grid for Sustainable Transportation

This project attempts to quantify the size of electric generation for the entire nation to transition from a fossil fuel based transportation sector to a zero GHG emission-based energy source. The scope of this analysis is limited to decarbonizing the transportation sector, leaving the remaining sectors, such as power (for those that are still fossil based), industry, and building sectors, for later phases of study. The study year for this analysis is 2050, with expected escalation in transportation services and naturally occurring evolutions in the electric power sector and the entire economy. This analysis uses the projections of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2020) Reference Case for study year 2050 [EIA/AEO2020] as a base-case. The transportation sector is disaggregated by the following modes and classes: (1) on-road (divided into light-duty, medium-duty, heavy-duty vehicles), (2) aviation, (3) maritime, and (4) rail. The decarbonization case was based on only 2 pathways: (1) electrification of on-road transportation except for 30% of heavy-duty vehicles, and (2) power-to-liquid for the remaining transportation modes. The study estimated for 11 US regions what the additional wind and storage capacities requirements are to replace the fossil-based fuels with renewable wind capacity. Considered were the utilization of the existing idle capacity particularly during the load valley at night and any additional new generation capacity in EIA projections for the reference case. To balance the additional wind capacity required significant energy storage capabilities which were estimated in terms of power capacity (GW) and energy capacity (GWh). The paper further characterizes the energy requirements by a relation of power capacity to duration, allowing the analyst to gain insights into what the best technology portfolio might be to meet the new balancing or flexibility needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Biofuel Production and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential

Under two biomass supply scenarios presented in this study, between 56 and 81 B GGE/year of biofuel could be produced. The corresponding GHG reduction potential is between to 410 million 635 billion Mt CO2e/year. This volume of biofuel is sufficient to replace a majority of fuel demand in hard-to-electrify aviation, marine, rail and off-road transportation by 2050. Through pathway selection and process design, sufficient sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could be produced to exceed the projected 35 B gpy of domestic aviation fuel demand by 2050. The external hydrogen required to produce this volume of fuel is estimated to be between 3.5 to 5.2 Mt/year.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States

This report presents the results of a study on the potential grid impacts of national-scale mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) coupled with weatherization in single-family homes (SFHs) from 2022 to 2050. GHPs are a technology readiness level 10, commercially available technology across the United States. This study is an impact analysis only; installed costs and available land areas for installing GHPs are not accounted for in determining their estimated deployment. The three scenarios studied were (1) continuing to operate the grid as it is today (the Base scenario), (2) a scenario to reach 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050 (the Grid Decarbonization scenario), and (3) a scenario in which the Grid Decarbonization scenario is expanded to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating (the Electrification Futures Study or EFS scenario). The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without GHP deployment to a large percentage of US building floor space. In all cases, deployment of approximately 5 million GHPs per year demonstrated system cost savings on the grid, consumer fuel cost savings through eliminated fuel combustion for space heating, and CO 2 emission reductions from avoided on-site fuel combustion—and, in the case of the Base scenario, CO 2 emissions reductions from the electric power sector. GHPs have traditionally been viewed as a building energy technology. The most notable result of this study, however, is the demonstration that GHPs coupled with weatherization in SFHs are primarily a grid cost reduction tool and technology that, when deployed at a national scale, also substantially reduces CO 2 emissions, even in the absence of any other decarbonization policy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Advanced Building Construction (ABC) Research Opportunities Report: Industrializing Construction to Decarbonize Buildings

The U.S. building stock is responsible for 75% of total U.S. electricity use, 40% of energy use, and 35% of CO 2 emissions. To meet bold national climate change goals, the U.S. must decarbonize the building stock by 2050. However, today’s practices to build or renovate buildings to low-carbon, high-performance levels are generally labor intensive, disruptive, and too costly to quickly scale in the U.S. To retrofit 80% of the U.S. building stock in the U.S. by 2050, the retrofit rate will need to increase by about 15 times for residential buildings and two times for commercial buildings. Additionally, there is a major housing deficit in this country where nearly 600,000 people lack adequate or stable shelter, and the pace of construction is not keeping up with the growing demand. New, more industrialized, replicable, and technologically driven approaches to renovation and new building construction are imperative to help meet such significant national needs and achieve the necessary speed and scale to meet national building decarbonization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modeling and Policy Pathways to Decarbonize South Asia’s Industrial Sector

The industrial sector is responsible for one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, and industrial decarbonization will be an essential component of limiting emissions and mitigating climate change (Rissman et al., 2020). This holds true for South Asian countries as they work toward their stated commitments to reducing emissions in the coming years. India has pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 33–35% by 2030 (Government of India, 2016) and announced at COP26 a target of reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2070, a goal that will require rapid decarbonization of energy-intensive industries (WEF, 2021). Bangladesh’s Nationally Determined Contributions include a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 6.73% to 15.12% by 2030 (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, 2021). While these Nationally Determined Contributions do not explicitly target emissions reductions in industry, Bangladesh’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EE&C) Master Plan highlights industry as an important sector for EE&C (Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority, 2015). Sri Lanka has pledged carbon neutrality by 2050, including a reduction in industrial greenhouse gas emissions (Ministry of Environment, 2021). Nepal’s commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 includes plans to establish guidelines and technology transitions facilitating industrial decarbonization (Government of Nepal, 2020).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100): Final Report

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) is a comprehensive analysis based on extensive stakeholder input of possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. PR100 was an integrated effort drawing on expertise and capabilities of the contributing national laboratories that explored possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy in the long term (by 2050), increase reliability and resilience in the immediate term (within the next few years), and work toward energy justice. The purpose of the study is to provide decision support and inform investment decisions for implementers of Puerto Rico's energy transition. See NREL/TP-6A20-88614 for the Spanish translation of this report.

100% renewable energy target↗

El Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transiciones a Energia 100% Renovable (PR100): Informe Final [Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100): Final Report]

El Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red de Puerto Rico y Transiciones a Energia 100% Renovable (PR100) es un analisis integral basado en amplios aportes de las partes interesadas sobre posibles caminos para que Puerto Rico alcance su meta de 100% de energía renovable para 2050. PR100 fue un esfuerzo integrado que se baso en experiencia y capacidades de los laboratorios nacionales contribuyentes que exploraron posibles caminos para que Puerto Rico logre su objetivo de 100% de energía renovable en el largo plazo (para 2050), aumente la confiabilidad y la resiliencia en el plazo inmediato (dentro de los proximos anos), y trabajar hacia la justicia energetica. El proposito del estudio es brindar apoyo a las decisiones e informar las decisiones de inversion para los implementadores de la transicion energetica de Puerto Rico. See NREL/TP-6A20-88384 for the English translation of this report.

100% renewable energy target↗

Tierra del Fuego Case Study Capacity Expansion Analysis

This case study, developed by Net Zero World Initiative and the Government of Argentina, examines least-cost decarbonization pathways for Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, utilizing renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, and other decarbonization technologies. Being the second largest natural gas producing province in Argentina, Tierra del Fuego has historically relied on natural gas for their energy sector needs. As they look at possible decarbonization pathways, they face challenges due to extreme weather conditions, isolation from the mainland, and low population density. The study utilizes the Engage web application for capacity expansion modeling, addressing both business-as-usual (BAU) and accelerated decarbonization scenarios, with varying degrees of electrification and carbon emission constraints. Key findings reveal that an interconnection with the mainland, high contribution of wind energy development on Tierra del Fuego, energy storage, and hydrogen, coupled with energy-efficient electrification technologies (such as heat pumps and electric vehicles), emerge as the most cost-effective solutions to decarbonize, significantly reducing carbon emissions and total system energy costs. The study explores self-generation and interconnection alternatives, demonstrating the economic advantage of an interconnection of Tierra del Fuego with the mainland, as an alternative to 100% local generation. Sensitivity analyses on wind data sources and temporal resolutions, as well as projected natural gas prices, highlight the influence of external factors on the feasibility of decarbonization pathways. Challenges identified include the practicality of phasing out natural gas, economic uncertainty, cost implications of long-term storage technologies as wind energy increases, and geographical limitations for wind generation. The case study concludes that while substantial emissions reductions can be achieved by 2050, and be competitive with conventional pathways, achieving a full 100% decarbonization by 2050 would entail higher costs, particularly due to the significant reliance on storage solutions with higher contribution of wind energy. The analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Argentina's energy sector, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning, investment in renewable energy and storage technologies, and careful consideration of local conditions in the transition towards Net Zero targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High Performance Metal-Supported SOFC System for Range Extension of Commercial Aviation

The DOE ARPA-E REEACH program [1] has enabled this Phase 1 study that conceptualizes a commercial 154 passenger electric aircraft using renewable aviation fuel for range extension while meeting similar mission performance levels as current commercial aircraft. Commercial aviation accounts for about 2.5% of global CO2 emissions, and close to 5% of overall anthropogenic climate change due to the added accounting of contrail’s effects [2]. The sector has adopted a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 [3]. 110 nations, and recently the new US administration, have embarked on work to address this important challenge. The US DOE has released a roadmap to enable the further development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the hopes that it could meet all of aviation’s fuel needs by 2050 [4]. However, SAF fuel price and sufficient future feedstock availability remains a concern [5]. Considering the first commercial biofuel flight demonstration 14 years ago [6] and that SAF still only comprises less than 0.1% of jet fuel use, the question arises as how it can ramp up to 100% use in the next 27 years. One option that has the potential to substantially reduce the need for SAF is to implement light-weight Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) that can efficiently utilize SAF or other sulfur-free hydrocarbon fuels. As opposed to lower temperature PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) fuel cells that can use high-purity hydrogen, SOFC’s fuels are very flexible, ranging from low cost liquefied natural gas (LNG), renewable liquefied natural gas (RLNG), to SAF, to generate clean electrical power for use in aviation propulsion and auxiliary power units [7] [8]. Research progress is needed to enable SOFCs to achieve 3.0 kW/kg power density, making them viable for aviation [9]. The DOE’s Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E) has therefore initiated an aviation SOFC R&D program that is anticipated to dramatically reduce aircraft fuel use though the implementation of “Range Extenders for Electric Aviation with low Carbon and High efficiency” (REEACH) [1] for medium range commercial aircraft. This report summarizes the progress during phase 1 of the REEACH program.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost-Benefit Analysis For Indonesia Building Sector: Whole-Building Cooling Solutions

The Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia (GoI) includes technical assistance and investment mobilization facilitation to accelerate deployment of energy efficiency technologies and solutions for the building sector. A February 2023 U.S.–Indonesia Joint Workshop on Decarbonizing the Building Sector yielded a NZW Indonesia Building Decarbonization Working Group (NZW IBDWG) with four sub-working groups (SWG): SWG-A National Center, SWG-B Capacity Building, SWG-C Investment and Financing, and SWG-D Pilot Projects. Technical analysis of whole-building cooling solutions for tropical climates of Indonesia was conducted by SWG-A to quantify energy savings, carbon dioxide reductions, and comfort improvements offered by 12 passive or low-energy cooling strategies: ceiling fans with and without thermostat setbacks; cool roofs; cool walls; exterior awnings; exterior shades; interior shades; insulated roofs; insulated walls; low-e windows; solar window films; and natural ventilation. Leveraging the results from SWG-A, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted by SWG-C to assess the consumer and national costs and impacts associated with these 12 cooling solutions. The evaluation involved estimating life-cycle costs (LCC), payback period (PBP), net present values (NPV), annual electricity burden change for low-income households, and reduced national annual power-sector generation demand by 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060. This evaluation can help guide Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) investments in policies and programs to advance research, development, deployment, and commercial adoption (RDDCA) of efficient residential building sector cooling technologies and solutions in Indonesia. Four key energy conservation measures (ECM) have been identified to reduce air-conditioning (AC) energy demand in single-family housing in Indonesia: ceiling fan with temperature setback (to 28.1 °Celcius from 25 °C); insulated walls; insulated roof; and cool roof. This study found that low-income households with AC installations in Indonesia currently face a high energy cost burden of approximately 10%. However, by implementing a ceiling fan with temperature setback, this burden could decrease to 2.5% today and further reduce to 1.3% by the year 2060. The PBP for a ceiling fan with temperature setback is one year, indicating one of the lowest LCC and best NPV. In the planned upcoming phase of CBA, a series of building cooling improvement scenarios can be further defined, incorporating more than one ECM in combination with socio-economic factors evaluated in the initial CBA phase. Additionally, the analysis of ECM effects in multifamily housing can be expanded. This broader national analysis aims to encompass a holistic and comprehensive system-level perspective, including factors such as avoided power sector infrastructure investments, domestic job creation, domestic manufacturing job creation, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Mid-Century Net-Zero Scenario for the State of Wyoming and its Economic Impacts

Clean hydrogen has the potential to help achieve 10% economy-wide emissions reductions by 2050 relative to 2005, promote energy security and resilience, and develop a new economy in the United States. In 2030, the hydrogen economy could create about 100,000 new jobs to build new capital projects and clean hydrogen infrastructure. The Wyoming Energy Authority recently announced the state’s energy strategy, which establishes a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Under all likely scenarios, achieving a mid-century net-zero target will pose challenges and create opportunities for Wyoming’s energy sector. If executed properly, the transition could favorably affect the state’s economy overall in the long term. This research program examines the economic impact of fossil energy production in Wyoming and provides various predictions for future energy mixes to achieve net-zero emissions. Preliminary work suggests that Wyoming-based hydrogen production could have significant economic benefits and job creation implications for Wyoming. This study further assesses Wyoming’s opportunities to create hydrogen-based industries, assess economic impacts, identify knowledge gaps and research needs, and create a Hydrogen Center of Excellence to accelerate commercialization and deployment. This project helped to understand Wyoming's areas of focus for research and development and identified its areas of strength and potential challenges in creating a hydrogen ecosystem. As a result of this study, we estimate that for blue hydrogen produced from coal and gas resources, the overall cost reduction will be driven mainly by the carbon-sequestration tax credit and the improvement in carbon capture. Mature technologies, like SMR and PSA, will make limited contributions. They have no or limited reductions from an additional capacity deployment in future costs. We also understand the importance of continued support from public and private sectors for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)-related research, development, and demonstration programs at federal and state levels. The successful and efficient production of blue hydrogen requires a unique blend of energy resources, geology, regulation, law, and infrastructure. Wyoming has the distinction of meeting all these demands. The team also estimates that the availability and command of water resources accessible for hydrogen production are crucial for developing new projects. Water treatment, use, and disposal after treatment will also make projects possible. Primarily, this is relevant for hydrogen made using renewable energy. Wyoming has one of the best wind resource capacity in the nation. Harnessing this resource is challenging due to limited transmission line availability. Hydrogen could become one of the solutions to the stranded resource problem, primarily if the water availability challenge is addressed. Using produced oil & gas water could help to solve the problem. A commonly cited barrier to the expansion of hydrogen markets is the cost associated with constructing new pipelines, which typically require large amounts of capital to develop. Wyoming already possesses much of the export infrastructure needed to connect Wyoming’s hydrogen production with major markets across the West Coast, Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Front Range regions of the United States, where a large portion of Wyoming’s natural gas is already transported. In addition to transportation by pipeline, rail transportation of hydrogen has also proven feasible. Wyoming uses its extensive railway system to transport large amounts of coal to its export partners across the United States. By using cryogenic or compressed-gas cars, Wyoming has the potential to add hydrogen to its existing network of railroad energy exports. The same technology may also be applied to hydrogen transport via trucks traveling interstate highways. Wyoming’s workforce is ready to meet the demands of clean hydrogen development. Many of the skills and training needed for hydrogen production are the same skills already possessed by Wyoming’s oil & gas and coal workforce. Many government and industry leaders expect clean hydrogen and other low-carbon energy projects to generate significant job growth and to recruit many already-trained oil & gas and coal workers whose jobs may be displaced. As energy companies seek to penetrate the markets for Wyoming hydrogen production, there is a natural mutual benefit to Wyoming’s workers and companies seeking to launch projects with the assistance of a trained workforce. Wyoming’s university and community college system have adopted several programs to ensure that highly qualified engineers and other technically skilled employees continue to graduate with skills to support the development of hydrogen and other innovative energy projects moving forward. Throughout the project, stakeholder outreach and education took many forms, including meetings with several major companies in the industry, collaborating with local government organizations, educational organizations, and national laboratories, tribal outreach and engagement, the sponsoring of several hydrogen-focused projects in many departments throughout the University of Wyoming, and developing a collaboration with international universities. The products of these collaborations consist of working relationships with several companies in the industry, educational institutions, national labs, and local government, as well as strong connections with individuals who will play an essential role in the success of the Hydrogen Energy Research Center.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) State-of-Industry Report: State of SAF Production Process

GHG emissions related to commercial air travel were already significant, at 10% of the domestic transportation emissions and 3% of the global greenhouse gas emissions prior to the pandemic, and are expected to double by 2050, even with modest projected growth in air travel. Since Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the only way that medium to long haul commercial aviation can be decarbonized, a US government wide "SAF Grand Challenge" was issued to encourage industry to develop capabilities to produce SAF, to reduce cost, improve sustainability, build value chains, and to scale production capabilities (1). The targets are to expand current domestic SAF 2022 production by 200X to 3 billion gallons per year by 2030, and then further by 12X to 35 billion gallons by 2050, while achieving life cycle GHG reduction of 50% relative to fossil Jet A. Following the SAF Grand Challenge, the DOE, USDA, EPA and FAA collaboratively developed a comprehensive strategy, outlined in the "SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap" (2), to inform stakeholders of the actions necessary to achieve the above volumetric targets. The purpose of this study is to provide an assessment of the current state of the SAF production industry and identify challenges and hurdles that industry may face in delivering the 2030 goals. This assessment is for the potential feedstocks and conversion pathways expected to contribute to 2030 goals and will generally follow action areas in the SAF Grand Challenge: feedstocks, conversion technology, supply chain, and policy & valuation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Sustainable Aviation Fuel State-of-Industry Report: Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids Pathway

Climate change is a pressing issue that requires immediate and decisive action to ensure a sustainable future. To reduce CO 2 emissions and speed up the transition to net-zero aviation, the Biden administration has launched the "Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) Grand Challenge" to scale up production of SAF. The challenge aims to achieve 20% reduction in aviation emissions by producing 3 billion gallons per year (BGPY) of SAF by 2030 and to meet 100% of aviation fuel demand by producing 35 BGPY of SAF by 2050. In this report, we provide an overview of the current state of the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) SAF industry, guided by the perspectives of the interviewed experts. Currently, the HEFA pathway is the only commercially deployed method to produce significant amounts of SAF. As a result, SAF produced via the HEFA pathway is expected to make the largest contribution to achieving the 2030 production target and play a key role in boosting and establishing the SAF market. Announced SAF's total capacity, including alcohol-to-jet, FT, and power-to-liquid facilities, is expected to reach 2 BGPY by 2030 (1), with the expected from HEFA. Total HEFA capacity, including construction and planned projects, is expected to reach about 9 BGPY by 2030; if completely executed, this would contribute to renewable diesel (RD) and SAF. The production ratio of SAF and RD will depend on market conditions, incentives, and the capabilities of facilities. While some stakeholders believe that the 2030 goal may be achieved solely via HEFA, others believe that overly relying on HEFA may be detrimental to the development of other necessary pathways to meet 2050 goals. Our conclusion is that the HEFA pathway alone will not be sufficient to reach the 2030 target. It is crucial to implement additional pathways to reach the goal. This report conducts a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the HEFA SAF value chain. Our aim is to provide current status of the industry and to identify potential challenges that could hinder the commercial production and use of SAF produced through the HEFA pathway. We have had extensive discussions, consultations, and collaborative sessions with stakeholders in the HEFA SAF value chain, including HEFA feedstocks, potential volume of HEFA SAF, economic and sustainability metrics when compared to petroleum, and assessment of the HEFA SAF industry's ability to grow and contribute to achieving the "SAF Grand Challenge." Since the HEFA pathway produces both SAF and RD, this report compares both pathways: HEFA to SAF and HEFA to RD.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗