VALIDATING SOLAR WIND PREDICTION USING THE CURRENT SHEET SOURCE SURFACE MODEL

Abstract

We have carried out a comparative study of the predicted solar wind based on the flux tube expansion factor computed using the current sheet source surface (CSSS) model and the potential field source surface (PFSS) model, with the aim of determining whether the CSSS model represents the solar wind sources better than the PFSS model. For this, we obtained the root mean square errors (RMSEs) and the correlation coefficients between the observed solar wind speed and that predicted by the models, the ratio of RMSEs between the two models, and a skill score. On average, the CSSS predictions are more accurate than the PFSS predictions by a factor of 1.6, taking RMSE as the metric of accuracy. The RMSEs increased as the solar cycle progressed toward maximum, indicating the difficulty in modeling the corona as the global field becomes more complex. We also compared the WSA/ENLIL predictions for a few Carrington rotations; the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model makes use of the PFSS extrapolations to model the wind source. We found that the average value of RMSE ratio between the CSSS and the WSA/ENLIL predictions was about 1.9, implying that the CSSS predictions are nearly twice better than the WSA/ENLIL predictions, despite the simplicity of the CSSS model compared to ENLIL. We conclude, based on the present analysis, that the CSSS model is a valid proxy for solar wind measurements and that it improves upon existing commonly used methods of wind prediction or proxy analysis.