Throwing computing into reverse

Abstract

For more than 50 years, computers have made steady and dramatic improvements, all thanks to Moore’s Law—the exponential increase over time in the number of transistors that can be fabricated on an integrated circuit of a given size. Moore’s Law owed its success to the fact that as transistors were made smaller, they became simultaneously cheaper, faster, and more energy efficient. The payoff from this win-win-win scenario enabled reinvestment in semiconductor fabrication technology that could make even smaller, more densely-packed transistors. And so this virtuous cycle continued, decade after decade. Now though, experts in industry, academia, and government laboratories anticipate that semiconductor miniaturization won’t continue much longer—maybe 10 years or so, at best. Making transistors smaller no longer yields the improvements it used to. The physical characteristics of small transistors forced clock speeds to cease getting faster more than a decade ago, which drove the industry to start building chips with multiple cores. But even multi-core architectures must contend with increasing amounts of “dark silicon,” areas of the chip that must be powered off to avoid overheating.