Kinetic Damage from Meteorites

Abstract

Comparing the natural meteorite flux at the Earth's surface to that of space debris, reentering debris is approx. 2 orders of magnitude less of a kinetic hazard at all but the very largest (and therefore rarest) sizes compared to natural impactors. Debris re-entries over several metric tonnes are roughly as frequent as natural impactors, but the survival fraction is expected to be much higher. Kinetic hazards from meteorites are very small, with only one recorded (indirect) injury reported. We expect fatalities to be even more rare, on the order of one person killed per several millennia. That several reports exist of small fragments/sand hitting people during meteorite falls is consistent with our prediction that this should occur every decade or so.